UFC Vegas 69 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 219? Saturday 18th February, 2023 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 219? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 219? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night
What channel is UFC Fight Night 219 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 219? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JESSICA ANDRADE VS ERIN BLANCHFIELD
Jessica Andrade (24-9) steps in for Taila Santos on one week’s notice. The veteran is fresh off her dismantling of Lauren Murphy a month ago and is still riding high off the dominant win. That came after a successful return to strawweight where she made light work of one of the best fighters in the division. She tied Amanda Lemos (2022) up in a standing arm-triangle choke in the first round extending her streak to three which included an easy TKO of Cynthia Calvillo (2021).
Erin Blanchfield (10-1) could be the future of the flyweight division and the UFC clearly agree, pairing her up with former title challengers. Her only loss is a dubious split decision to Tracy Cortez (2019) when she was 19 years old. Since, then she has strung seven wins together including Miranda Maverick (2021), JJ Aldrich (2022) and most recently Molly McCann (2022) who she brought back down to earth with the third submission of her career.
PREDICTION
This is a giant step-up in competition for Blanchfield. Andrade is a former champion, one of the hardest hitters in the division, has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and most importantly, is one of the most experienced women on the roster.
That said, if you want to fight her, you want to do it when she only has a week to prepare. Blanchfield will hope the Brazilian underestimates her and does not take the fight seriously.
She is not as powerful, but she is the bigger girl boasting a four-inch reach and three-inch height advantage. This is not anything Andrade has not seen before, but if they enter Blanchfield’s wheelhouse and tangle on the ground, the extra reach will help find a submission.
Despite Andrade being a black belt herself, she has to respect her skills and keep the fight on the feet. Here, the former strawweight champion will not respect oncoming fire and simply walk Blanchfield down to get into range and offload in the pocket.
The young grappler will strike from range but once the distance closes, she will happily tie up and try and drag Andrade to the deck. We expect Blanchfield to fight for the title one day, but this is a jump too far especially for five rounds. Andrade has championship experience and the power to put her away.
Blanchfield is too hittable for someone like Andrade so unless she can find top position, she is going to take a lot of damage.
Prediction: Andrade via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Blanchfield via Submission
JORDAN WRIGHT VS ZAC PAUGA
Jordan Wright (12-4(1)) the entertainer is still yet to hear a bell with all of his fights ending in a finish however, he has fallen on the wrong side of them in four of his last five fights. He knocked out Jamie Pickett (2021) after Joaquin Buckley (2020) cleaned his clocked but now he is coming off a knockout to Bruno Silva (2021), submission (2022) to Marc-Andre Barriault (2022) and another knockout to Dusko Todorovic (2022).
Zac Pauga (5-1) returns for his second showing in the UFC after falling short in The Ultimate Fighter 30 heavyweight finale. He got there by earning a unanimous decision over Nyle Bartling and a TKO over Jordan Heiderman. That set up a final with Mohammad Usman at UFC on ESPN 40. Unfortunately, it could not have gone much worse for Pauga getting flatlined with a flick of the left hand in the second round.
PREDICTION
These two have a similar frame despite Pauga moving down a weight class and Wright moving up. Pauga will naturally be heavier on the night which could pay dividends in the striking exchanges.
They are both very dangerous on the feet but if they start exchanging blow for blow, we expect Wright to drop first especially as he likes to defend punches with his mouth.
Pauga impressed on The Ultimate Fighter and looked good against Usman until his soul left his body so it will be very interesting to see how he looks at light heavyweight. He has speed and has a good variety of attacks.
When Pauga begins to land whether it is to the body, legs or even the chin, Wright may shoot for a takedown. That will only sap the gas tank trying to take down the heavier man.
Wright has the experience and will be dangerous in the first round. He is a hefty underdog, so there is value on an early knockout, but we are backing Pauga to find that damaged chin.
Prediction: Pauga via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Wright via KO/TKO
JOSH PARISIAN VS JAMAL POGUES
Josh Parisian (15-5) is just about keeping afloat in the heavyweight division. He arrived to the big time riding a six-fight knockout streak including one in the first-round over Chad Johnson (2020) on the Contender Series. However, he has gone 2-2 since getting outpointed by Parker Porter (2020) winning a split decision over Roque Martinez (2021), getting TKO’d by Don’Tale Mayes and coming off a TKO of his own over Alan Baudot (2022).
He welcomes Jamal Pogues (9-3) to the octagon. He has also earned his shot after a second successful audition on the Contender Series. He earnt a unanimous decision over Marcos Brigagao (2019) and is coming off another over Paulo Renato Jr (2022). In between, he got submitted by Alex Polizzo (2020) and outpointed Tim Hiley (2020) for LFA.
PREDICTION
Pogues is not a heavyweight and will be giving up some size and weight to Parisian. That will help his suspect takedown defence, but we still expect Pogues to still attempt to try and get the fight to the floor.
While on the feet, we back Parisian to win the exchanges, but this fight is hard to be inspired by. They are both barely UFC calibre and they are lucky to be on a main card. On paper, Parisian is likely to find a knockout, but we are leaning towards Pogues swaying the judges with his jab and wrestling.
Prediction: Pogues via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
WILLIAM KNIGHT VS MARCIN PRACHNIO
William Knight (11-4) has had six UFC fights already since blasting Cody Brundage (2020) away on the Contender Series. He lost his debut to Da Un Jung (2021) via unanimous decision then began to make some noise by starching Fabio Cherant (2021) and outpoint Alonzo Menifield (2021). However, he is now on a two-fight skid losing a unanimous decision to Maxim Grishin and getting TKO’d by Devin Clark last year.
The UFC gave Marcin Prachnio (15-6) a brutal slap of reality when he made his debut back in 2018. He was sitting proudly on an eight-fight win streak including six knockouts, but in his first three UFC bouts, he met Sam Alvey (2018), Magomed Ankalaev (2018) and Mike Rodriguez (2020) who all sparked him out in the first round. It seemed the writing was on the wall, but he bounced back with a unanimous decision over Khalil Rountree Jr (2021) and a body kick knockout over Ike Vilanueva (2021). However, he is back in the loss column after losing a unanimous decision to Philipe Lins (2022).
PREDICTION
Both these fighters are very inconsistent and hard to predict. They also both have suspect cardio so if the fight goes into the third round, anything can happen.
They are both very strong strikers. Prachnio possesses very dangerous kicks and Knight has serious power in his hands. Although he will be giving up five inches in height to the Pole, he is an absolute juggernaut and will have a significant power advantage.
If Knight is tentative, Prachnio will eat up his legs and grow into the fight. However, if Knight is aggressive and incorporates his wrestling, he can carve through Prachnio. If he finds the chin or decides to wrestle, it is game over.
We are backing Knight considering Prachnio’s chin but considering the lack of cardio and consistency, a knockout could fall either way.
Prediction: Knight via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Prachnio via KO/TKO
JIM MILLER VS ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ
Jim Miller (35-16(1)) is becoming the MMA Benjamin Button reeling off some vintage performances while being a record breaking, 40 fights deep into his UFC career. He responded to two unanimous decision losses in a row by knocking out Erick Gonzalez (2021) and Nikolas Motta (2022) before submitting fellow legend Donald Cerrone (2022) to avenge his loss all the way back in 2014. That win also broke the record for the most wins in UFC history.
Alexander Hernandez (13-6) fills in for Gabriel Benitez and it is fair to say, he has not lived up to the hype going 3-5 in his last eight. He was also on the receiving end of a Cerrone (2019) head kick knockout starting the miserable run with Drew Dober (2020), Thiago Moises (2021), Renato Moicano (2022) and Billy Quarantillo (2022) leaving their mark on the deteriorating record.
PREDICTION
Hernandez is the favourite despite the form and taking the fight on short notice. We all know about Miller’s prowess on the ground but he has looked superb everywhere. He is enjoying a resurgence but that said, his level of competition has not been close to Hernandez’s.
He should be the favourite because he has the youth and power to put the veteran away. We can see him catching the chin of Miller and also controlling him on the deck with his wrestling.
We feel he will do enough to earn a decision or knock Miller out but considering the their form and the odds, Miller is a good shout especially for a submission if Hernandez does decide to wrestle.
Prediction: Hernandez via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Miller via Submission
NAZIM SADYKHOV VS EVAN ELDER
Nazim Sadykhov (7-1) makes his UFC debut and he is coming in hot. After getting submitted on his professional debut, he has gone on a rampage and is coming off four straight finishes. He submitted John Herrera (2021) and knocked out Juan Carlos De Leon (2021) and Joe Boerschig (2022) for the Fury Fighting Championship. That led to his shot on the Contender Series which was a back-and-forth battle with Ahmad Suhail Hassanzada (2022) coming out victorious with a stunning third round knockout.
He is welcomed to the octagon by Evan Elder (7-1) who is coming off the first loss of his career. He also rampaged his way into the UFC arriving with an unbeaten record containing five finishes (four knockouts and a submission). He met Preston Parsons up at welterweight back in August last year for his debut and came up short in a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This is a great matchup between two young and promising lightweights. They both shoot to kill which leaves openings, so expect violence here.
They are aggressive on the feet and both susceptible to getting taken down. So, expect a back-and-forth scrap with a mixture of striking and grappling. As we expect the majority of this to play out on the feet, we are leaning towards Sadykhov who will thrive if the fight spills out into a brawl.
Elder’s durability should drag this to the bell, but here is value on him considering the odds.
Prediction: Sadykhov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Elder to win
LINA LANSBERG VS MAYRA BUENO SILVA
Lina Lansberg (10-7) has not won since 2019. That year, ‘The Elbow Queen’ reeled off two impressive unanimous decisions over Tonya Evinger and Macy Chiasson. She has only fought three times since taking some time off in 2021 welcoming a baby to the world and she has lost all three via unanimous decision. Firstly, to Sara McMann (2020) and then Pannie Kianzad (2022) and Karol Rosa (2022).
We are not quite sure what she has done to get paired with Mayra Bueno Silva (9-2-1). After suffering the second loss of her career losing a unanimous decision to Manon Fiorot (2021), she stepped up from flyweight and looked superb. She started her bantamweight campaign with a unanimous decision over Yanan Wu (2022) and is coming off a first round submission over Stephanie Egger back in August.
PREDICTION
This is a tough fight for a 40-year-old mother on a three-fight skid. That said, she is incredibly tough and her Muay Thai is still at a very high level. Fortunately for her, Silva also prefers to stand and bang.
She is a brilliant grappler with slick jiu-jitsu, but she relies on her hands. On paper, she should cruise this but the fact she is unlikely to attempt a takedown, gives Lansberg a chance.
We are backing Silva especially if they end up on the ground. However, considering the miles on the clock and how powerful Silva is up at bantamweight, we are leaning towards a Brazilian knockout.
Prediction: Silva via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JAMAL EMMERS VS KHUSEIN ASKHABOV
Jamal Emmers (18-6) is 1-2 in the UFC, but his losses consist of a split decision to Giga Chikadze (2020) on debut which continues to age well and a submission to Pat Sabatini (2021) which was part of a six-fight streak. Sandwiched between those losses was a unanimous decision win over Vince Cachero so his biggest worry at the moment is his activity only fighting twice since his debut against the Georgian.
He welcomes Khusein Askhabov (23-0) to the octagon who has been even more inactive. He has not fought since 2020 when he ended Yusup Visaitov with a flying knee which was only three weeks after he submitted Umar Movsarov. A couple cancelled fights with Joanderson Brito (2021) and Herbert Burns (2022) halted his debut but now he is looking to make up for lost time.
PREDICTION
It is great to finally see Askhabov in the UFC after sorting out his visa issues. He is an explosive athlete and dangerous everywhere. We are in for a treat as Emmers is also an exciting and well-rounded fighter.
He is a long and dangerous fighter and he will try and dictate the range and pick Askhabov apart. However, the Russian covers distance very well. He has powerful leg kicks and explodes into range to unleash his grappling.
Emmers’ confidence in his ground game could could get him in trouble here like the Sabatini fight. Askhabov is a strong wrestler with a variety of submissions in the locker. As long as he paces himself, he has the tools to hurt Emmers everywhere.
His speed and explosiveness will cause issues on the feet and as soon they tie up, the Russian’s scrambles and throws will enable him to land in top position.
That said, his aggressiveness will leave openings and his inactivity is a worry. We are backing him for a successful debut, but all the value is on Emmers as the underdog.
Prediction: Askhabov via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Emmers to win
OVINCE SAINT PREUX VS PHILIPE LINS
Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) (26-16) makes the walk for his 26th UFC fight. He reached his ceiling a while ago, but he still has all of the tools to trouble anybody in the division. His trouble is consistency. He iced Alonzo Menifield (2020) in the second round but then went on to get knocked out himself by the current champion Jamahal Hill (2020) and Tanner Boser (2021). He is now coming off an uninspiring split decision win over Shogun Rua (2022).
Philip Lins (15-5) continues his light heavyweight quest after spending a couple years up a division with the thicker boys. It is good to see as it is clearly his natural weight class. His first two UFC fights were at heavyweight where he lost a unanimous decision to Andrei Arlovski (2020) and got knocked out by Boser (2020). He retuned a couple years later in April at 205 lbs and earnt a unanimous decision over Marcin Prachnio.
PREDICTION
Like most of OSP’s fights, this one depends on what version turns up. He has brutishly strong wrestling with exceptional jiu-jitsu as well as knockout power. However, he has a tendency to let the fight play into his opponents hands.
If he does the same, he will try and grapple with Lins. His striking is not at a high level and he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He will boast the speed advantage, but the longer this stays on the feet, the more you have to back OSP.
What he lacks in speed, he makes up for in power and as long as he does not end up on his back, he should be able to hurt Lins from range and even find a knockout. We are backing him despite being the underdog, but his consistency is always a worry.
Prediction: OSP via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: OSP to win
AJ FLETCHER VS THEMBA GORIMBO
The AJ Fletcher (9-2) hype train has been thoroughly derailed failing to rise to the UFC standard so far. When he made his appearance on the Contender Series in 2021, he was coming off two first round submissions and extended his unbeaten record with a spectacular flying knee on Leonardo Damiani. However, he has lost both his UFC fights last year via unanimous decision to Matt Semelsberger and Ange Loosa. Now, he needs to a serious performance to stay afloat.
Hoping to sink the barrel of muscle is Themba Gorimbo (10-3). He made a name for himself for EFC in his native South Africa. He racked up three finishes in a row but has been inactive since. He made one appearance in 2021 losing a unanimous decision to Handesson Ferreira (UAE Warriors) and fought once last year responding with a decision of his own over Julio Rafael Rodrigues (Fury FC).
PREDICTION
Gorimbo was preparing for Billy Goff and now has a very different frame in front of him. He will boast a nine-inch reach advantage and he will try and use every one of those inches to keep Fletcher as a distance.
He is a very dangerous striker, but we do not expect him to keep Fletcher at bay. Fletcher is brilliant at closing the distance. He is like a stick of dynamite and as soon as he is in range, he will be a knockout threat.
However, considering the skid, we expect Fletcher to play it safe and look for the takedown. Once he gets his hands on Gorimbo, he should be able to throw him down and pin him to the canvas. Fletcher will enjoy raining down the ground-and-pound, but as soon as the neck presents itself, Fletcher will wrap up a choke.
Prediction: Fletcher via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CLAYTON CARPENTER VS JUANCAMILO RONDEROS
Clayton Carpenter (6-0) has sailed into the UFC after earning a unanimous decision over Edgar Chairez on the Contender Series back in August last year. That extended his unbeaten record to six which include three dubs for LFA – Manuel Medina (2020 – unanimous decision), Nick Clem (2021 – submission) and Rodney Kealohi (2021 - knockout).
Juancamilo Ronderos (4-1) welcomes him to the big leagues and he his searching for his first UFC win himself. He made his professional debut in 2019 and picked up four wins that year for the WXC promotion. After 17 months on the side lines, he got called up on short notice to fight David Dvorak (2021) at UFC Fight Night 188 and inevitably lost getting submitted in the first round.
PREDICTION
Carpenter has a bright future ahead of him and he has a good matchup here to get his UFC career up and running. He is only 26 years old but has a well-rounded skillset already. He is rapid on the feet and a good grappler.
Ronderos will hope he decides to grapple and if the fight goes to the floor, he will fancy his chances. However, we fancy Carpenter on the ground and on the feet. We expect grappling exchanges and clinch work in between some unpolished striking with Carpenter convincing the judges at least.