UFC 285 Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 285? Sunday 5th March, 2023 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 285? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 285? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 285
What channel is UFC 285 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 285? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JON JONES VS CYRIL GANE
Jon Jones (26-1(1)) is back. Regardless of his extra-curricular activities and polarizing behaviour, the man fills out arenas because he is arguably the best Mixed Martial Artist that has ever graced the sport. Arrests and bans have prevented any chance of regular activity and since he knocked out Daniel Cormier (2017 – later overturned to a ‘no contest’), he has only fought four times. He ruthlessly knocked out Alexander Gustafsson (2018) to claim the vacant light heavyweight strap and defended it in less convincing decisions to Anthony Smith (2019), Thiago Santos (2019) and Dominick Reyes (2020).
He now begins a new chapter up at heavyweight and is welcomed back by Cyril Gane (11-1). The super talented Frenchman took seven UFC fights to earn a title shot making light work of elite contenders including Junior dos Santos (2020 – TKO), Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2021 – unanimous decision), Alexander Volkov (2021 – unanimous decision) and Derrick Lewis (2021 – TKO). That led him into the title path of Francis Ngannou who surprised everyone by lacing up some wrestling boots for the fight. He grinded out a decision, but Gane has recently bounced back by putting on a clinic against Tai Tuivasa (2022) knocking him out in the third round.
PREDICTION
Jones moves up to heavyweight and has been out for three years. His decisions against Santos and Reyes could have easily been losses but we still have to expect to see one of the best fighters on the roster.
He is the favourite, mainly due to the simple fact that Ngannou was able to take Gane down and Jones is an elite wrestler. Some say USADA have taken away his powers, but the truth is, he still has the skillset, mentality and frame to become a heayweight champion.
That said, he has never fought anyone like Gane before. He is a natural heavyweight who moves like a 205er. He has speed, power and like Jones, is an expert from range who can cripple the legs.
We expect them to trade kicks with Jones opening up with his vicious oblique kicks to the knee and Gane’s chopping kicks to the thigh and piercing front kick to the gut. Gane will need to be persistent with his kicks as Jones will want to close the distance and blast elbows from all angles.
Jones does not possess threatening knockout power in his hands, but he will be more explosive up at heavyweight and his head kick will be money. We expect him to start patient and call upon his wealth of championship experience to orchestrate the rounds mixing in long strikes, clinches and wrestling.
Jones’ grappling and experience swing this in his favour for us despite the time off. However, it is hard to count Gane out. He is arguably the most dangerous striker Jones has faced, but he needs to keep the fight at a distance for five rounds or knock him out.
Jones has a granite chin and the nous on the feet to disable and freeze Gane. Then, as the fight goes on, he can grind the Frenchman down with his grappling and even secure a late finish.
We can see Gane overwhelming Jones on the feet especially if he chops the legs down early. There is value on him considering the odds and Jones’ inactivity, but we are leaning towards to the bad guy.
Prediction: Jones via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Gane to win
VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO VS ALEXA GRASSO
The flyweight queen and most skilled female fighter of all time, Valentina Shevchenko (23-3) walks out for the seventh defence of her crown. She has only lost to the much larger Amanda Nunes (2016 and 2017) and since then, she has carved through nine contenders including four knockouts. Two of those were in her last three – Jessica Andrade (2021) and Lauren Murphy (201). She only fought once last year and it was her toughest flyweight test so far going to a split decision with Taila Santos so no doubt, they will meet again.
That is, if she can get past the next young and hungry contender Alexa Grasso (15-3). She had a shaky start to her UFC career going 3-3 in her first six fights. She was young and simply got outwrestled by Felice Herrig (2017) and then Tatiana Suarez (2018) and Carla Esparza (2019) who are two of the best female wrestlers. Since her last loss, she has evolved and strung together four impressive wins including a submission over Joanne Wood (2022) and a unanimous decision over Viviane Araujo (2022).
PREDICTION
Not enough can be said about defending a UFC title. It is the hardest feat in the sport as every opponent a champion faces is entering the biggest opportunity of their career in the form of the their life. Grasso is no different and is peaking into a true Mixed Martial Artist, desperate to be the one to finally dethrone the queen.
The only success other flyweights have had against Shevchenko have been through their wrestling. Grasso’s wrestling has come on leaps and bounds, but it will not be enough to grind out the champ.
Shevchenko is still an exceptional grappler. Her clinch, offensive wrestling and jiu-jitsu is top tier and we cannot see Grasso risking that to pick on her takedown defence.
We expect Grasso to stick to her strengths and box. She has brilliant hands and movement so if this stays at boxing range for five rounds, she has a great chance.
However, Shevchenko is too smart for that. She will try and control the range with her kicks and when the distance closes, she will clinch up where she has the power and technique to toss the Mexican to the canvas.
We expect Grasso to be super competitive on the feet and a punt on a decision win is tempting considering the odds. That said, Shevchenko has too many strings to her bow and avenues to win. A decision is likely, but if Shevchenko finds that crucifix position, a finish is almost inevitable.
Prediction: Shevchenko via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Shevchenko via Submission
GEOFF NEAL VS SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV
Geoff Neal (14-4) had to pull out of this scheduling last month due to injury but thank the heavens this fight is back on and on the stacked UFC 285 card. When he head kicked Mike Perry (2019) into next week, he had future title contender printed on his forehead. However, he then slumped losing unanimous decisions to Stephen Thompson (2020) and Neil Magny (2021). It seemed personal issues were getting the best of him, but he responded with a split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio (2021) and then reeled off his most impressive performance to date last year. He met Vicente Luque and became the first man to knock out the granite Brazilian.
Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0) graces his second pay-per-view. He is one of the most exciting prospects we have seen in the UFC for a while. He has had four UFC fights and has simply demolished his competition. He submitted Alex Oliveira (2020) on short notice and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Michel Prazeres (2021) before spectacularly knocking Carlston Harris (2022). He then got handed his toughest test in the shape of Neil Magny (2022) and put everyone on notice with another second-round submission.
PREDICTION
This is an incredible match up. Neal has more valuable UFC experience, but Rakhmonov is the more finely tuned fighter with a seamless skillset. He has better technique on the feet and his grappling is on a different level to most welterweights let alone Neal.
Where Neal has the advantage is his power. He truly does have hands of steel and they are the equalizer to Rakhmonov’s bag of tools. That said, the ‘Nomad’ is an even more prolific finisher with eight knockouts and eight submissions.
This is the biggest fight of his career and we still expect fireworks from the bell. He has the striking to knock Neal out, but the longer he stands, the more chance there is of him getting knocked out himself.
We expect Rakhmonov to play it smart and try and get Neal on his back. It may take a round or two once Neal begins to fade, but if he does, we back him to wrap up a submission although it feels rude not to put something on Neal when he is such a big underdog.
Prediction: Rakhmonov via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Neal via KO/TKO
MATEUSZ GAMROT VS JALIN TURNER
Mateusz Gamrot (21-2-1) steps in for Dan Hooker who injured his hand. He is clearly desperate to get back in the cage and make up for his recent loss to Beneil Dariush back in October. It was a fiercely competitive scrap with the veteran convincing all three judges. That snapped a four-fight streak and now he keeps up the theme of taking on an absolute beast in every UFC fight.
Jalin Turner (13-5) is peaking and has never looked so dangerous. He received a baptism of fire on his UFC debut stepping up to welterweight on short notice to get knocked out by Vicente Luque (2018). He bounced back then lost a unanimous decision to Matt Frevola (2019) and has since gone on a tear finishing everyone within two rounds. That included two knockouts and three submissions with a TKO over Jamie Mullarkey and a submission over Brad Riddell last year.
PREDICTION
Gamrot and Turner represent how stacked the lightweight division is right now ranked at #7 and #10 respectively. They both have incredible skillsets with Gamrot possessing elite grappling and Turner boasting the longest frame in the division complimented by his striking and jiu-jitsu.
He stands at 6’3” and will boast a seven-inch reach and five-inch height advantage. His ceiling his sky high and this is the perfect test to see how high it is. Gamrot is one of the best wrestlers in the division and he will no doubt test the takedown defence of Turner.
It is 77%, although he has not fought anyone with wrestling close to the Pole. We expect Gamrot to be relentless with his single leg takedown and eventually drag him down to the canvas.
Turner will accept being on his back for short periods threatening submissions with his long limbs before being able to spring back up and create space on the feet. Gamrot is also a good striker, but Turner will be deadly with his jab and kicks down the middle. It is just a question of how much damage he can inflict before getting taken down.
Turner holds the value as the underdog as he has the ability to finish the fight early, but we are backing Gamrot’s wrestling to grind out a decision.
Prediction: Gamrot via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Turner to win
BO NICKAL VS JAMIE PICKETT
Bo Nickal (3-0) is the hottest middleweight prospect we have seen in a while. He is a decorated wrestler and although he has only had two amateur fights and three pro fights, many are touting him as a future title contender. He hails from the perfect background to be successful in the sport and has carried over his skills and ethic seamlessly. Making his debut last year, he smoked John Noland (2022) in the first round for Jorge Masvidal’s promotion and then racked up two first-round submissions on the Contender Series over Zachary Borrego and Donovan Beard.
Jamie Pickett (13-8) is the man seemingly being fed to the wrestler. He has had a tough time in the UFC going 2-4 since his debut in 2020. He earnt two unanimous decisions in a row over Laureano Staropoli (2021) and Joseph Holmes (2022) but now he is coming off a submission to Kyle Daukaus (2022) and a TKO courtesy of Denis Tiuliulin back in September.
PREDICTION
This is a huge opportunity for Pickett. He is taking on a future contender while he is still green and inexperienced. It is the perfect time to fight Nickal and the perfect way to salvage his UFC career.
However, we expect Nickal to run through him. He is likely to burst out of gate and into the pocket with strikes to set up a takedown. As soon as he gets his hands on Pickett, he will throw him to the canvas and submit him.
Pickett is a decent striker and is Nickal’s toughest test. If he takes him lightly, he will get himbled but if he sticks to his strengths, he should go 4-0 in quick time.
Prediction: Nickal via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CODY GARBRANDT VS TREVIN JONES
We are not sure how much fight Cody Garbrandt (12-5) has left in him, but it is great see him back. He is 1-5 in his last six and his gym wars have truly caught up with him. He was sitting pretty with an unbeaten record and the bantamweight title on the shoulder before TJ Dillashaw (2017 and 2018) knocked him out twice in a row. Pedro Munhoz (2019) made it three before the he bounced back with the best knockout of his career over Raphael Assuncao (2020). However, he is coming off two more losses – a unanimous decision to Rob Font (2021) and a knockout to Kai Kara-France (2021) down at flyweight.
He was preparing to take on Julio Arce who unfortunately had to pull out with a knee injury. Trevin Jones (13-9(1)) has wilfully stepped in for the biggest opportunity of his career. However, like Garbrandt, he is bringing some miserable form to the pay-per-view card. He is coming off three straight losses – a submission to Saidyokub Kakhramonov (2021) and unanimous decisions to Javid Basharat and Raoni Barcelos last year.
PREDICTION
This is a welcome step-down in competition for Garbrandt. However, when your chin is as compromised as his you are one strike away from the night and potentially your UFC career from being over.
Garbrandt has the experience, the skill and the power to add Jones to the highlight reel. Jones on the other hand will boast a five-inch reach advantage. We certainly expect him to leverage it to find the damaged chin, but as soon as he feels Garbrandt’s power, he will shoot.
Jones has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and he will be happy to duke it out on the canvas. However, Garbrandt is also a top tier wrestler and he will be able to stuff any takedowns.
So, we expect the majority of this to be contested on the feet where the former champion is in a different league. Jones is worth a punt as the underdog especially considering Garbrandt’s form, but on paper, he is not on the same level as his previous opponents, and we expect him to get back in the win column.
A knockout is likely, but Jones is durable, and we expect a more patient display from Garbrandt taking this to the bell.
Prediction: Garbrandt via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Jones to win
DEREK BRUNSON VS DRICUS DU PLESSIS
Derek Brunson (23-8) finally returns after Jared Cannonier snapped his five-fight win streak a year ago. It seemed Israel Adesanya (2018) knocked some sense into him as he went back to the drawing board, started fighting smarter and relied more on his strengths. He utilized his wrestling to maul through the likes of Edmen Shahbazyan (2020), Kevin Holland (2021) and Darren Till (2021). Those wins put him on course for a title shot which Cannonier knocked him off of in the second round.
Dricus du Plessis (18-2) continues his march up the division. Not many saw it coming but after his unanimous decision over Brad Tavares and submission over Darren Till last year, he deserves a big fight. Those wins extended his win streak to six which include four impressive UFC outings collecting two bonuses in the process.
PREDICTION
If Brunson the brawler turns up, he could easily be looking at two knockouts in a row. Du Plessis’ striking technique is better, but it is not exactly crisp. However, he does pack a lot of power and he is not worth exchanging with especially when your chin has a few miles on the clock.
That said, if Brunson lands his overhand left, du Plessis will also be in trouble. However, we expect Brunson to hunt the takedown. He may struggle at first and his chin will be vulnerable when he shoots in but if he is persistent and chains his takedowns together, he will eventually get the South African down and drain the energy bar.
If he has success in the first round, we can even see him getting a late submission. Considering the experience and the odds, Brunson is a no brainer despite the form du Plessis is in.
Prediction: Brunson via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Brunson to win
VIVIANE ARAUJO VS AMANDA RIBAS
Despite her talents, Viviane Araujo (11-4) is struggling to put a streak together. Her last seven fights have ended via unanimous decision. Jessica Eye (2019) inflicted her first UFC loss before sweeping past Montana De La Rosa (2020) and Roxanne Modafferi (2021). Katlyn Chookagian (2021) closed the gate on her before she added Andrea Lee (2022) to the dub sheet. She then lost to another top contender in Alexa Grasso (2022) who fights for the belt against Valentina Shevchenko in the co-main event.
Amanda Ribas (11-3) is another super talented fighter who cannot seem to get past the top contenders. She sparked off her UFC career with four impressive victories to extend her streak to five. However, she then got TKO’d by Marina Rodriguez (2021). She bounced back with a brilliant unanimous decision over fellow jiu-jitsu ace Virna Jandiroba (2021) but is coming off another loss to the gatekeeper Chookagian (2022) who squeaked out a vintage split decision.
PREDICTION
These two are very well-rounded and evenly matched. They are both elite grapplers as Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts with Araujo also possessing a black belt in luta livre and Ribas possessing a black belt in judo.
We can easily see these skills cancelling each other out and forcing a stand-up battle. They are good strikers with diverse arsenals, but they do not pack much power so we expect this to go to the bell.
Hopefully we will see these two tangle on the mat so they can show off their skills. If they do, Ribas’ wrestling and judo may enable her to get in top position, but Araujo’s defence should prevent any damage and submissions.
The stand-up battle will be very even, but we feel Ribas’s output and speed may sway the judges. This has split decision written all over it so back the underdog.
Prediction: Ribas via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Araujo via Decision
JULIAN MARQUEZ VS MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT
It is great to see Julian Marquez (9-3) more active as he always brings the excitement. However, his reckless style will never get him to the top of the middleweight division as he is coming off his second UFC loss. He lost a split decision to Alessio Di Chirico (2018) in his second UFC fight before submitting Maki Pitolo (2021) and Sam Alvey (2021). He then crossed paths with Gregory Rodrigues last year who dished out his first knockout loss to go 3-2 in the UFC.
Marc-Andre Barriault (14-6(1)) is more experienced but has also struggled for consistency. He started his UFC career with a three-fight skid in 2019 and bounced back in style in his next three. He then also suffered the first knockout of his career last year courtesy of Chidi Njokuani. He responded with a rare submission over Jordan Wright but is coming off a submission loss to Alexander Hernandez to take his UFC tally to 3-5(1).
PREDICTION
Expect violence here as they are both dish out a pounding, but tend to eat a lot of damage. Barriault will bring an unrelenting pace and keep pressing forward. Marquez is more explosive and should come out the gate quicker.
If Marquez lands early, he can conduct the tempo, but despite the recent knockout, Barriault is very durable and if he can weather the first half of the fight, he will finish stronger.
However, we feel the Canadian will try and match Marquez’s early pace which will get him into trouble. If Barriault fights smart, he will try and wear Marquez down in the clinch, but we expect him to trade and eventually get caught leading to a submission.
Prediction: Marquez via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Marquez to win
IAN GARRY VS KENAN SONG
Ian Garry (10-0) continues his quest for superstardom on another pay-per-view card. This will be his fourth UFC appearance and has been under the bright lights every time. His first was at UFC 268 with a kind match-up in Jordan Williams (2021). He made light work of him in the first round to rack up his fifth knockout. He then followed that up with educational unanimous decisions against Darian Weeks and Gabriel Green last year.
His next assignment is Kenan Song (18-6). He has fought six times for the UFC and this will be his first pay-per-view slot. He kicked off his UFC campaign in style with two knockouts but then lost a unanimous decision to Alex Morono (2018). He responded with two more dubs including another knockout which was Callan Potter (2020) however, he is coming off a devastating loss and taste of his own medicine getting knocked out by Max Griffin (2021).
PREDICTION
It is good to see Garry is not being rushed and this is also a good stylistic match-up. Song is a dangerous striker and is also very experienced.
The uber confident Garry will boast a three-inch reach and height advantage which he will try and leverage to the full and clip the chin of Song from range. He will threaten with counters and heavy kicks, but he will have to have worked on his defence.
The glaring hole in his game so far is leaving his chin exposed. Song will not need many opportunities to find it and he has the power to derail Garry considering half of his wins have been knockouts.
This is a tough test for Garry, but the fact that Song will oblige in a stand-up battle will bring the best out of the Irishman. He is improving at a rapid rate and we expect him to have worked on his defence and will be patient in finding the knockout blow.
We expect him to land it, but considering Song is a huge underdog, he holds the only value.