UFC 284 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 284? Sunday 12th February, 2023 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 284? RAC Arena, Perth (Australia)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 284? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 284
What channel is UFC 284 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 284? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ISLAM MAKHACHEV VS ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI
Islam Makhachev (23-1) gets his wish and makes the first defence of his lightweight crown against the featherweight champion. It is clearly not his lightweight run that has earnt him this super fight as Charles Oliveira (2022) is the only top ranked fighter he has beat. It is his sheer prowess and how easily he cut through the Brazilian who was on one of the best streaks we had seen in the UFC. He hurt him on the feet and submitted the submission record holder in the first round.
Alexander Volkanovski (25-1) confidently steps up to challenge the feared 155er and is even more happy to do so on home soil. He is currently sitting proudly on the most impressive featherweight streak we have seen in the UFC. He beat Chad Mendes (2018) and Jose Aldo (2019) before dethroning Max Holloway (2019) and beating him twice more (2020 and 2022) sandwiching wins over Brian Ortega (2021) and the Korean Zombie (2022).
PREDICTION
Volkanovski has been proving people wrong ever since he stepped foot inside the octagon and there is a strong case to say he is the best featherweight of all time. He deserves this super fight, but Makhachev is a different animal to anyone he has come across before.
He is the best grappler in the lightweight division, and he is a bigger and more powerful man. Volkanovski is used to giving up a lot of size but not power and Makhachev has a clear advantage here amplified by his elite technique.
The Aussie will boast a clear speed and striking advantage and will actually have an inch in reach over Makhachev. However, that will count for nothing when he is on his back. We expect Makhachev to land a takedown easily but he will have to work hard to keep Volkanovski down. He is slippery and is exceptional at springing back to his feet.
However, we do not feel that will be enough. Volkanovski’s best chance is to hope Makhachev has the ego to stand or survive the first two rounds and hope he gasses so he can finish stronger and pinch three rounds which he is certainly capable of with his cardio.
Volkanovski will begin by chopping the lead right leg and popping his jab while constantly moving and bouncing out of range. However, Makhachev has the ability to exchange and cause damage with his kicks which will make his takedowns even harder to defend.
The longer the lightweight champ can keep Volkanovski down, the more likely it is that he will find a submission. The Aussie somehow defended two deep submission attempts from Brian Ortega who has some of the best jiu-jitsu on the entire roster, but the Russian has the ability to grind him down throughout the fight where a submission will eventually open itself up.
Prediction: Makhachev via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Makhachev via Submission
YAIR RODRIGUEZ VS JOSH EMMETT
Yair Rodriguez (14-3(1)) makes a quick turnaround for his standards. He last fought seven months ago against Brian Ortega but, T-City injured his shoulder in the first round which was gutting for everyone. It was a technical knockout yet hollow win. Prior to that he lost a unanimous decision in an incredible battle with Max Holloway (2021).
After getting his skull cracked by Jeremy Stephens (2018), Josh Emmett (18-2) has recovered to go on the best run of his career. He took a year to heal but bounced back with knockouts over Michael Johnson (2019) and Mirsad Bektic (2019) and unanimous decisions over Shane Burgos (2020) and Dan Ige (2021). Now, he is coming off a split decision with Calvin Kattar to set up this interim title fight.
PREDICTION
These guys duke it out for the interim strap while Alexander Volkanovski has a date with the lightweight champion at the top of the card. This belt does not mean anything but it guarantees them a shot at unifying the featherweight title and it is a fascinating match up.
They are both electrifying yet contrasting strikers. Emmett is a compact and technical boxer with a ferocious right hand whereas Rodriguez can hurt you anywhere from anywhere with anything.
Rodriguez has a complete arsenal with all eight limbs which makes him very hard to prepare for. However, his aggressive an unorthodox style leaves his chin open and that right hand of Emmett only needs one connection. So, Rodriguez needs to play this smart and respect the power discrepancy.
If he uses his range and can keep moving while keeping Emmett at a distance with his kicks, he can inflict a lot of damage and break him down. Emmett will look to walk into range accepting damage to get in the pocket and unleash a knockout blow.
You cannot count Emmett out considering his power and the openings Rodriguez will leave especially in the later round however, as the majority of this will stay on the feet, you have to back the Mexican.
We expect him to disable Emmett’s legs while catching him off guard with kicks and knees down the middle. Emmett should drag this to the bell and is the smart pick considering the odds.
Prediction: Rodriguez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Emmett to win
JACK DELLA MADDALENA VS RANDY BROWN
Jack Della Maddalena (13-2) is quickly becoming a top prospect in the welterweight division. After earning a unanimous decision over Ange Loosa (2021) on the Contender Series, he has showcased his boxing reeling off three first round knockouts last year and made them look easy. Firstly, he swatted away Pete Rodriguez and picked up two ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses when he buried Ramazan Emeev and Danny Roberts.
Randy Brown (16-4) has not been putting people to sleep but he is compiling a streak against tough competition. After getting knocked out by Vicente Luque (2020), he submitted Alex Oliveira (2021) and went on to outpoint Jared Gooden (2021), Khaos Williams (2022) and Francisco Trinaldo (2022).
PREDICTION
This is a huge test for Maddalena which if he carries the same knockout form, he will be catapulted towards the top 10. He will need all of his boxing technique to negate Brown’s five-inch reach and four-inch height advantage.
Brown is an excellent striker in his own right and uses his reach well. He is also a lot more well-rounded with decent wrestling and solid Brazilian jiu-jitsu as a brown belt. He will be wise to mix his offence up and ultimately get Maddalena on his back.
As we saw in the Emeev fight, the Aussie has solid grappling defence and it is only getting better. The longer this stays on the feet, the less chance Brown has. Maddalena’s striking is at such a level where he can get a read on the range and begin to target the body with both hands and ready to uncork on the grill.
This is a tough fight to call especially if Brown’s strategy consists of taking Maddalena down. Considering the odds, he is a no brainer and if you are feeling brave, bet on a submission but with the momentum and fighting on home soil, we are leaning towards Maddalena.
Prediction: Maddalena via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Brown to win
JUSTIN TAFA VS PARKER PORTER
Justin Tafa (5-3) is coming off a performance that saved his UFC career. He was 1-3 in his last four coming off limp decision losses to Carlos Felipe (2021) and Jared Vanderaa (2021) who both got cut from the UFC. It was only Harry Hunsucker (2021) who also got the chop, but it was a brutal head kick knockout.
Parker Porter (12-7) was starting to build some momentum after getting knocked out by Chris Daukaus (2020). He earnt unanimous decisions over Josh Parisian (2020), Chase Sherman (2021) and Alan Baudot (2022). He then met a light heavyweight in Jailton Almeida whose skillet was simply in a different league allowing the Brazilian to throw him to the mat and choke him out in the first round.
PREDICTION
This is only so high up on the card because the UFC are expecting a knockout. Tafa is most likely on the feet as Porter really does not hit that hard for a 265 lb fighter. He is capable of a knockout here, but it is more likely to come via ground-and-pound on a fatigued body.
Tafa has the speed and power advantage, but Porter is more well-rounded and has the ability to tangle the Aussie up, take him down, drain the gas tank and either finish him on the floor or cruise a decision.
An early Tafa knockout or Porter decision / TKO are your best bets and Porter remains the underdog, he is the smart pick.
Prediction: Porter via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Porter to win
JIMMY CRUTE VS ALONZO MENIFIELD
The talented Jimmy Crute (12-3) is falling victim to some tough matchmaking. He earnt two ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses with a submission over Michal Oleksiejczuk (2020) and a knockout over Modestas Bukauskas (2020) but then ran into Anthony Smith (2021) and Jamahal Hill (2021). The former title challenger hit a nerve in Crute’s leg disabling him in the first round and then the current champion cleaned his clock in under a minute.
Alonzo Menifield (13-3) is finally beginning to fulfil his potential. After losing to Devin Clark (2020) and Ovince Saint Preux (2020) he got past Fabio Cherant (2021) and Ed Herman (2021). William Knight (2021) then exposed his inconsistency in a decision, but he has gone on to show the Menifield of old by racking up two ruthless first round knockouts over Askar Mozharov and Misha Cirkunov last year.
PREDICTION
Menifield looked superb in his last two fights and back to his scary best. However, the calibre of competition does not compare to Crute’s. The Aussie fell into Cirkunov’s web back in 2019 and the Latvian’s chin did not stand a chance against Menifield so we cannot read too much into that shared opponent.
Crute’s last couple fights should be good preparation for this fight. He has all the tools, but he has to respect the power and devise a game plan around Menifield’s hands. He is a quality striker with knockout power himself, but he has to stick to his grappling here.
Menifield is a strong wrestler with quality takedown defence which will give him confidence, but if this hits the deck, Crute will be in his element.
This is another dangerous fight for the Aussie and considering their form and Menifield’s unholy power, there is value on him as the underdog, but Crute has the skill to find a submission.
Prediction: Crute via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Menifield via KO/TKO
TYSON PEDRO VS MODESTAS BUKAUSKAS
After spending more than three years out on the sidelines, Tyson Pedro (9-3) returned in April last year and looked better than ever. That said, he was gifted two of the easiest fights he could have asked for. He was coming off a submission loss to Ovince Saint Preux (2018) and a TKO to Shogun Rua (2018) and wa thens handed Ike Vilanueva and Harry Hunsucker who he mercilessly knocked out in the first round.
He was preparing for Mingyang Zhang who had to withdraw which has given Modestas Bukauskas (13-5) the opportunity for a comeback. He had a very tough run in the UFC getting paired with Jimmy Crute (2020) who starched him in the first round, Michal Oleksiejczuk (2021) who earnt a split decision and then Khalil Rountree Jr (2021) who crippled Bukauskas’ knee with an oblique kick. He recovered quickly to pick up a couple wins for Cage Warriors picking up the light heavyweight title in the process and now has his second chance in the big time.
PREDICTION
There are still question marks over Bukauskas’ knee health after Rountree’s assault and travelling over to Australia on relatively short notice to fight the home favourite is a tough ask to say the least.
The odds are stacked against him, but he does have two good wins under the belt. He is a very strong striker with solid takedown defence and is worthy of a place on the roster.
However, Pedro is another extremely tough match up for him stylistically. It was easy to look good in his last two fights, but Pedro is a legit striker and a beast on the mat as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
This should be competitive for the first round at least, but we expect Pedro to land something clean to the body or jaw and if the fight goes to the floor, he should be able to find a finish.
Prediction: Pedro via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JOSHUA CULIBAO VS MELSIK BAGHDASARYAN
Joshua Culibao (10-1-1) makes the short trip for his first UFC fight on home soil. He has not been active, but he remains unbeaten at featherweight. He made his UFC debut on short notice at lightweight against Jalin Turner (2020) who is built like a middleweight. He inevitably got TKO’d but since dropping back down, he drew with Charles Jourdain (2020) and earnt tight decisions against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke (2021) and Seung-Woo Choi in June last year.
Melsik Baghdasaryan (7-1) enjoyed a much more successful UFC debut. He met Colin Anglin (2021) off the back off a decision win over Dennis Buzukja (2020) on the Contender Series and earnt a ‘Performance of the Night’ with a beautiful head kick knockout. He then followed that up with a unanimous decision over Bruno Souza (2021) to extend his unbeaten streak to seven.
PREDICTION
This is a great stylistic matchup. They are both exciting strikers with Culibao boasting more MMA experience and Baghdasaryan boasting a more polished technique from his kickboxing background.
They match up similarly size-wise which is good for Culibao but Baghdasaryan is a lot more explosive. Expect his speed to make the difference firing off kicks to break Culiabo down while avoiding the counters.
Prediction: Baghdasaryan via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JAMIE MULLARKEY VS FRANCISCO PRADO
Jamie Mullarkey (15-5) is 3-3 in the UFC, but he has not had an easy fight. He started his UFC account with two decision losses to Brad Riddell (2019) and Fares Ziam (2020) but responded with stunning knockouts over Khama Worthy (2021) and Devonte Smith (2021). He then met Jalin Turner getting knocked out himself (2022) but bounced back again in his last outing with a split decision over Michael Johnson.
He welcomes Francisco Prado (11-0) to the big time who fills in for Nasrat Haqparast. He sits proudly on a perfect record after tearing up his local Argentinian scene with five knockouts and six submissions. He fought four times last year TKOing Diego Basuraldo, submitting Mauricio Ariel Pare and TKOing Adrian Perrone and Jose Barrios Vargas all for Samurai Fight House.
PREDICTION
Prado is a bull and will blast through the gate and attempt to bulldoze Mullarkey to the floor, pour down the ground-and-pound while looking for a submission. He will want a finish as soon as possible.
However, Mullarkey is an absolute dog and arguably the best wrestler Prado has fought. Flying over to Australia on short notice is also a tough ask and is why he is the underdog despite the record.
We feel Mullarkey just has to weather the first round and then his class will shine through. He has the ability to pick Prado apart on the feet and drain him with his own grappling to set up a TKO.
Prediction: Mullarkey via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
SHANE YOUNG VS BLAKE BILDER
Shane Young (13-6) flies over to Australia desperate for a win. His last was back in 2019 when he earnt a unanimous decision over Austin Arnett. He has only fought twice since and they were very tough match-ups. Firstly, he met Ludovit Klein in Abu Dhabi and got obliterated with a head kick in the first round. He returned six months later to lose a unanimous decision to Omar Morales and now his UFC career is hanging by a thread.
He welcomes the undefeated Blake Bilder (7-0-1) to the UFC. He is coming off five straight wins including a submission over Frank Buenafuente (2021) and a TKO over Regivaldo Carvalho (2022) for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships. They earnt him an audition on the Contender Series against Alex Morgan (2022) and submitted him in the first round to earn his spot.
PREDICTION
This is a better match-up for Young but this is still a tough fight for him. Bilder is an excellent grappler and he will hope the fight goes to the floor as soon as possible.
He is also a dangerous striker but can be reckless. If he decides to trade, Young will eat him up. He has better technique and knockout power, so Young will have been drilling that takedown defence.
The Kiwi has forgotten that winning feeling whereas that is all Bilder knows. That said, we are backing Young’s experience and class on the feet to get back in the win column.
He may spend portions of the fight defending the takedowns but his leg kicks and jab should do all the damage and convince the judges the earn a decision.
Prediction: Young via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV VS ELVES BRENNER LOWDOWN
Zubaira Tukhugov (20-5-1) was preparing for a juicy clash with Joel Alvarez who unfortunately had to pull out. He is grateful he is still on the card as he did not fight last year and only fought once since 2020. That year, he knocked out Kevin Aguilar and lost a split decision Hakeem Dawodu. He returned in October 2021 for another tough fight in Ricardo Ramos and picked up his biggest win with a unanimous decision.
Alvarez’s loss is Eleves Brenner’s (13-3) gain. He is 2-2 in his last four but has regained some momentum coming off two wins. He lost unanimous decisions to Sergei Andreev (2019) and Gabriel Santos (2020) but replied with submissions over Adilson Ramos Silva and Victor Nunez all for various promotions.
ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV VS ELVES BRENNER PREDICTION
As a valued member of the Nurmagomedov dynasty, Tukhugov inevitably has very strong wrestling however, he prefers to strike. We expect him to hunt the knockout on the feet but he is likely to call upon his wrestling to prevent Brenner taking him to the canvas at least.
Brenner is very slick on the mat with good jiu-jitsu. He will not be shy in trading on the feet, but his route to victory is on the the ground and if he can drain Tukhugov’s gas tank or even rock him, he can pounce on a submission.
This is a very tough match-up for the Brazilian even if he had a full training camp. The Russian has the wrestling to stuff the majority of takedown attempts, nullify his weapons and get the job done on the feet.
Prediction: Tukhugov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)