UFC 283 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 283? Sunday 22nd January, 2023 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 283? Jeunesse Arena, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 283? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 283
What channel is UFC 283 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 283? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
GLOVER TEIXEIRA VS JAMAHAL HILL
This is an unexpected turn of light heavyweight events, but it is fair to say Glover Teixeira (33-8) has got what he deserves. His initial title fight and rematch with Jiri Prochazka fell through after the Czech native injured his shoulder. The champ nobly vacated the title and Teixeira was offered Magomed Ankalaev as a replacement. He refused to take the fight which meant Jan Blachowicz stepped in forcing Teixeira to watch on as a new champion emerged. Fortunately for him, the fight ended in a draw and this new title fight has presented itself.
Jamahal Hill (11-1(1)) seizes the opportunity to jump to the front of the queue. He is on an incredible run picking up three bonuses in the process. Paul Craig (2021) dislocated his elbow while tangled up in an armbar leading to a TKO and Hill’s sole loss. However, the new contender has bounced back in style by knocking out Jimmy Crute (2021), Johnny Walker (2022) and Thiago Santos (2022).
PREDICTION
There is 12 years of age and 15 years of professional experience between them. Hill is an upcoming young gun with a lot more potential to fill whereas Teixeira has 41 bouts and three title fights in the bank.
A passing of the torch is inevitable and although Prochazka beat him, he is clearly still at the top of the food chain with his durability, boxing and grappling. He took the current champ to the wire and Hill is a step down in competition.
That said, the miles are on the clock and Hill hits like a truck. He will also boast a three-inch reach and two-inch height advantage. He will need every inch as he wins this fight by maintaining the distance.
Teixeira is nasty in the pocket with dirty boxing, is strong in the clinch and if the fight goes to the mat, he will be in his wheelhouse. Considering the skill set and the five-round experience, it is very surprising to see Hill as the favourite.
Teixeira is still incredibly durable, but we feel Hill has the speed and power to knock him out. His jab from his southpaw stance will cause problems and his lightening straight down the pipe and hooks could easily down the veteran.
However, he needs to do it early. We are backing the Brazilian to weather the early storm, close the distance, clinch up and drag Hill to the canvas. Then, his jiu-jitsu will look a class above.
Prediction: Teixeira via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Teixeira via Submission
DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO VS BRANDON MORENO
The last time Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) fought someone other than Moreno 26 months ago. That was the first defence of his title submitting Alex Perez (2022). His rivalry with Moreno then began fighting to a draw at UFC 256 and then losing his title after an immaculate performance by his counterpart giving him a taste of his own medicine with a submission. Their third meeting was a year ago and he reclaimed his crown with a unanimous decision to make it 1-1-1.
As injuries kept Figueiredo out for the year, Brandon Moreno (20-6-2) accepted an interim title fight with Kai Kara-France back in July. The Kiwi was in the form of his life after knocking out Rogerio Bontorin (2021), Cody Garbrandt (2021) and outpointing Askar Askarov (2022). However, Moreno put on a clinic proving he is still champion calibre and finished Kara-France in the third round with a beautiful body kick.
PREDICTION
Firstly, let us accumulate the stats over their three fights:
Significant strikes landed
Figueiredo – 247
Moreno – 284
Knockdowns
Figueiredo – 3
Moreno – 1
Takedowns
Figueiredo – 5 (56%)
Moreno – 7 (67%)
You can see why we have a tetralogy. They are so evenly matched and their complete skill sets combined with their aggression makes this another guaranteed spectacle. After three fights and over an hour of fight time, you would think this fight would be easy to predict.
It really depends on who shows up in better form and executes a new game plan. In their second fight, Figueiredo did not show up and Moreno put on his best ever performance and was a different class on the night. Moreno turned up again in the third fight, but so did Figueiredo and he came out on top with three knockdowns swaying the judges.
The key factors here will be Figueiredo’s power, Moreno’s output and their stamina. The Mexican’s cardio will always keep him in the fight, but Figueiredo’s power and wrestling will impress the judges.
We feel it will make the difference again and as the underdog, a decision is a smart pick especially considering Moreno’s durability and submission defence. Although a Moreno finish will give you better odds.
Prediction: Figueiredo via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Moreno via finish
GILBERT BURNS VS NEIL MAGNY
Gilbert Burns (20-5) is finally back after his epic war with Khamzat Chimaev back in April last year. He came up short in a unanimous decision, but his stock did not take a hit giving the prodigy everything he had to offer. That loss made it 1-2 in his last three after getting TKO’d in his title fight with Kamaru Usman (2021) and a unanimous decision win over Stephen Thompson (2021).
Neil Magny (27-9) is next up for the former title challenger and after 28 UFC bouts, he has not given up on his own title challenge. After responding to a decision loss to Michael Chiesa (2021) with decisions of his own against Geoff Neal (2021) and Max Griffin (2022), he was back on track. However, he then ran into the welterweight prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov (2022) getting submitted in the second round. However, he recently bounced back with a submission of his own over Daniel Rodriguez (2022).
PREDICTION
A win over Burns would certainly put Magny closer to a title shot than he has ever been before, but this is an incredibly difficult match up for him. He will boast nine inches in reach and five in height and besides his cardio, that is where his advantages end.
Burns is a more explosive striker, a stronger wrestler and he has some of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu on the entire roster. Magny needs to frustrate Burns by using his range to maintain the distance. Expect him to pop his jab out at will while constantly circling.
Unless Magny catches Burns and rocks him early or have a flawless 15 minutes by defending the takedowns and remaining illusive, we feel this is the Brazilian’s to lose. If he can not maintain the distance, Burns can finish him.
Expect Burns to unleash in the pocket and eventually get close enough to clinch-up and drag the fight to the floor. Magny will put up a fight, but Burns’ technique and power should enable him to control the fight on the deck and work his way to a submission.
Prediction: Burns via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JESSICA ANDRADE VS LAUREN MURPHY
When Jessica Andrade (23-9) made her flyweight debut against top contender Katlyn Chookagian (2020) and folded her with a vicious liver punch in the first round, many believed Valentina Shevchenko finally had a worthy challenger. The flyweight Queen had other ideas in 2021 dispatching her in the second with a TKO. Andrade responded with a TKO of her own against Cynthia Calvillo five months later but decided to move back down to strawweight. She met another top contender Amanda Lemos and made it look easy tying her up in a standing arm-triangle choke.
Lauren Murphy (16-5) has also felt the wrath of Shevchenko (2021). She earnt her chance after five dogged wins but the skill gap was evident as the champion reeled off her eighth knockout. Murphy has only fought once since then meeting former bantamweight champion Miesha Tate back in July when she earnt a vintage unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
As usual, Andrade will be giving up a height and reach advantage – five inches in reach and four in height to Murphy. However, that is rarely a factor for the ‘piledriver’ who will press forward to close the distance to unleash her power and rip to the body.
This tactic usually works as few flyweights have threatening knockout power. The same can be said for Murphy. She is a good boxer, but she will need more than that to slow Andrade down.
We expect Murphy to have success with her jab as Andrade will walk onto it. However, she will need to stick and move for three rounds as Andrade will keep pressing forward. Murphy has the cardio to keep up an overwhelming output for three rounds, but we feel Andrade will be to bullish.
We can see Andrade absorb a lot of damage, but with the Brazil crowd behind her, we expect another mean display walking Murphy down, unleashing in the pocket and even clinching up to control her.
We can easily see an Andrade TKO, but Murphy is still very durable and we expect her to take the fight to the bell.
Prediction: Andrade via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
PAUL CRAIG VS JOHNNY WALKER
Paul Craig’s (16-5-1) streak finally snapped last year on the London card. He was unbeaten in his last six and coming off big wins submitting Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2020), TKOing Shogun Rua (2020) and Jamahal Hall (2021) who headlines this card and a vintage submission over Nikita Krylov (2022) catching him in his seventh triangle choke. However, he then ran into Volkan Oezdemir who muscled his way out of the grappling initiations to earn a classy unanimous decision.
Johnny Walker (19-7) took a leaf out of Craig’s book back in September picking up his first submission win in the UFC. A first-round rear-naked choke over Ion Cutelaba earnt him a ‘Performance of the Night’ bonus and came with immense relief after losing four of his last five to – Corey Anderson (2019), Krylov (2020), Thiago Santos (2021) and Hill (2022).
PREDICTION
Walker showed a new string to his bow submitting Cutelaba, but he will try and avoid hitting the mat at all costs here. Their game plans will be obvious and that will be for Craig to drag the fight to the ground and Walker to light him up on the feet from range.
You have to feel 2018 Walker would smoke Craig. He has lost that confidence of bouncing around, being loose and throwing effortless knockout blows with all eight limbs. He has lost four times since and not looked the same.
However, his recent win will give him all the confidence. He knows he is a different league in the striking realm. If he is hesitant to throw however, Craig can catch him off guard and sneak it a few hits while Walker is expecting the takedown.
A Craig submission is always possible and if Walker has another off night, we can see him falling into a triangle. That said, we have a feeling a rejuvenated Walker will show up and use his explosiveness to shrug off and takedown attempts and leverage his six-inch reach advantage to eventually land the killer blow.
Craig is the value pick with underrated striking and an unforgiving submissions game.
Prediction: Walker via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Craig via Submission
SHOGUN RUA VS IHOR POTIERIA
The legend Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (27-13-1) makes his swansong in Rio and just about every fan wants to see him end his illustrious career with a dub. He has had 23 UFC fights off the back of a wild Pride career. His UFC record is 11-11-1 sharing the cage with fellow legends such as Forest Griffin, Mark Coleman, Chuck Liddell, Lyoto Machida, Jon Jones, Dan Henderson and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira who was his last win. He beat Little Nog for the third time in July 2020 and has fought twice since losing to Paul Craig (2020 – TKO) and Ovince Saint Preux (2022 – split decision).
Ihor Potieria (18-3) flies over to spoil the party. He will not mind being the villain one bit as long as he picks up the first win of his UFC career. He arrived to the big time in 2021 off the back of 15 straight wins which included five knockouts and six submissions. Nicolae Negumereanu welcomed him to the octagon back in July greeting him with an onslaught of knees and punches to snap the streak.
PREDICTION
This is an odd matchmaking. Shogun should have a big name closer to his generation for a retirement fight. This does not make any sense, but it is a huge opportunity for Potieria. Shogun is clearly way past his prime yet still a quality name to have on the record.
The old slugger will only want to stand and trade so Potieria will know how to prepare. He has hours of tape and he will have counters prepared and ready to uncork. He will try and remain illusive and throw combinations from different angles.
Shogun’s speed, reactions and durability has declined but he still possesses power and will be a threat. Potieria does not have any notable wins, but he is hungry, a brilliant finisher and has 15 years on Shogun. As this is the final dance for the legend, he will be more aggressive and reckless which will only leave him open. We expect them to trade with the old stalwart falling first.
Prediction: Potieria via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
GREGORY RODRIGUES VS BRUNNO FERREIRA
Gregory Rodrigues (13-4) is quickly gaining a reputation as one of the most exciting fighters in the middleweight division. He earnt a ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus with Jun Yong Park (2021) who he smoked in the second round. He then lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan (2022) but has bounced back with incredible knockouts last year over Julian Marquez to earn the ‘Performance of the Night’ and Chidi Njokuani earning another ‘Fight of the Night’.
Now he welcomes Brunno Ferreira (9-0) to the octagon who is cut from the same cloth. He boasts six knockouts and three submissions on his perfect record. He fought four times last year knocking out Sebastian Ferreira, Weldon Silva de Oliveira, Adercino de Jesus and Leon Aliu on the Contender Series.
PREDICTION
Rodrigues has the experience along with a three-inch reach and five-inch height advantage. However, that can count for nothing if he lands quickly.
Expect an ultra-aggressive first round from Ferreira. He has the power to put most men away however after seeing that knee Rodrigues absorbed from Njokuani, it will have to be a titanic collision to put him away.
Rodrigues is incredibly durable which will help him take the fight into the second / third round where the questions of Ferreira’s gas tank will be answered. In the meantime, we can expect chaos on the feet and supreme technique if they grapple.
It is easy to forget Rodrigues is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt mainly because he prefers to rely on his hands. His grappling will help him drain the gas tank and his experience will be crucial when the fight spills out into a brawl.
It is hard to back against someone who is unbeaten and finished all their fights, but Rodrigues has the durability and firepower to dent that record.
Prediction: Rodrigues via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
THIAGO MOISES VS MELQUIZAEL COSTA
Thiago Moises (16-6) is back and has the momentum of a ‘Performance of the Night’ behind him. It was a ruthless submission over Christos Giagos which came off the back of getting finished twice. Firstly, to the current champion Islam Makhachev who handed him the first submission loss of his career and then Joel Alvarez knocked him out in the first round four months later.
He was scheduled to fight another beast in Guram Kutateladze. Unfortunately, he pulled out a couple weeks ago which has given Melquizael Costa (19-5) the opportunity for his UFC debut. He had a very busy 2022 kicking it off with a submission win over Angel Rodriguez (PFL). He then lost a unanimous decision to Italo Gomes (LFA) but responded with knockouts over Tom Santos (Presas Combat) and Jose Cleiton de Melo Jr (LFA).
THIAGO MOISES VS MELQUIZAEL COSTA PREDICTION
Costa steps up on short notice against the talented veteran and is unsurprisingly the underdog. That said, he is a tough fight for Moises. He is a big lightweight and will have a slight height and reach advantage.
He is a good striker and uses his range well. He is also very measured which will be crucial for a debut like this. However, Moises should be too good everywhere. The striking exchanges will be competitive, but Moises should have the upper hand and if the fight goes to the floor you have to have Moises all day.
Prediction: Moises via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JAILTON ALMEIDA VS SHAMIL ABDURAKHIMOV
Jailton Almeida (17-2) returns and is still at heavyweight for some reason. 2022 was quite the year for him making all three of his UFC appearances so far. He kicked off his campaign in his natural weight class at light heavyweight dispatching Danilo Marques with a first round TKO. He then fought the 265 lb Parker Porter making quick work of him with a submission and followed that up with another first round rear-naked choke over Anton Turkalj which extended his winning streak to 12.
This match-up is third time lucky after Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7) had to pull out of UFC 279 and UFC 280 with Visa issues. That has only extended the time since his last win which was back in April 2019. It was an impressive one to be fair TKOing Marcin Tybura. However, he has only fought three times since getting knocked out each time. They were all vicious finishes by – Curtis Blaydes (2019), Chris Daukaus (2021) and Sergei Pavlovich (2022).
PREDICTION
Almeida could be in the light heavyweight top 10 by now but he is being fed another unexciting heavyweight match-up. Abdurakhimov is a powerful wrestler and seasoned kickboxer with a couple impressive wins, but he has hit a ceiling and only declining.
Three knockouts in a row is not the best preparation for someone like Almeida who will have a significant speed advantage and knockout power. That will be more threatening as Abdurakhimov will be waiting for the takedown attempt.
Expect Almeida to set up his takedowns, most likely with a front kick. The Russian will put up a fight, but Almeida’s grappling is at such a level, he should be able to drag the fight to the ground and find a submission with ease. He has the technique and as we saw in the Porter fight, he also has the power to have his way with Abdurakhimov.
Prediction: Almeida via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
TERRANCE MCKINNEY VS ISMAEL BONFIM
Terrance McKinney (13-4) had a fun 2022. He came into it off the back of a perfect UFC debut wrecking Matt Frevola (2021) in just seven seconds to extend his streak to four. He kicked off the year with a ruthless first round submission over Fares Ziam, stepped up on short notice to take on Drew Dober and nearly finished him only for the veteran to come back and seal his own knockout. He finished the year with another first round finish submitting Erick Gonzalez.
Now he welcomes Ismael Bonfim (18-3) for his UFC debut. The Brazilian is on a tear right now and although he only fights once or twice a year, he has looked electric. He earnt unanimous decisions against Rangel Ribeiro de Sa (2021) and Andrey Augusto (2020) for LFA which earnt him an audition on the Contender Series. He then met Nariman Abbasov back in September and stamped his name on a contract with his third unanimous decision in a row.
PREDICTION
Mckinney has the makings of a star, so it is surprising to see him matched with a prospect making his debut. Bonfim is only 27 years old and has amassed a lot of experience. He can grapple but he is most dangerous on the feet with serious power in his hands.
This has the makings of a very exciting scrap. McKinney has all of the tools with one-punch knockout power and high-level wrestling, but his lack of defence will wet the lips of the Brazilian.
A first-round finish is likely here and we can see them both getting knocked out or rocked on their way to getting submitted. Look out for the lightening quick 1-2 from McKinney and the counters of Bonfim in particular his left hook.
We are backing McKinney as he has the tools to control the fight by mixing in his wrestling at the right times. He is only getting better, but this is a very tough fight for him. Considering his defence and Bonfim’s finishing ability, the Brazilian is the smart pick.