UFC Fight Night 209 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Paris? Saturday 3rd September, 2022 - 18:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Paris? Accor Arena, Paris (France)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Paris? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Paris
What channel is UFC Paris on? BT Sport 3
Where can I stream UFC Paris? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CIRYL GANE VS TAI TUIVASA
Ciryl Gane (10-1) has to be at least partially responsible for France finally legalizing MMA. The sport got the green light a couple years ago and the UFC arrive to the country for the very first time. Gane is the perfect headliner for the occasion as he oozes as much class outside the octagon than in it. He stormed his way to a title shot after just seven UFC fights disposing four top contenders. However, he ran into Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 who could have beaten any human in the world that night. We all know about his terrifying knockout power which many believe Gane had the finesse to swerve, but the champ displayed some surprising wrestling to grind out a unanimous decision.
He welcomes Tai Tuivasa (14-3) to Paris who is in the form of his life right now. After suffering three losses in a row, he went back to the drawing board getting some different looks at AKA to sharpen up his game and it has paid dividends. He is currently on a five-fight knockout streak. He has swatted away Stefan Struve (2020), Harry Hunsucker (2021), Greg Hardy (2021), Augusto Sakai (2021) and most impressively, Derrick Lewis back in February.
PREDICTION
Tuivasa is a knockout artist and we all know how he is going to try and end this one. Gane has already shared the cage with Junior dos Santos, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou – some of the very best and most dangerous strikers to grace the division and he has not been rocked once.
Tuivasa is not going to wrestle like Ngannou did, so he needs a strategy to find the chin. He does not possess the technicality of the lumps mentioned but he does have more speed which will be key. He needs to pace himself and time his explosions of power at the right time or hope Gane makes a mistake.
The Frenchman has many more strings to his bow and has crucial five-round experience. He will try and weather the storm for the first couple rounds and rely on his impeccable defence, movement, speed and technique to wear Tuivasa with a full arsenal of strikes.
His volume and leg kicks will dismantle the Aussie and he also has the grappling to sap the gas tank. Expect some clinch work with thunderous knees and elbows. If he can get Tuivasa on his back in the later rounds when he is fatigued, a submission will open up.
Tuivasa will be incredibly dangerous in the first two rounds and will look to negate the six-inch reach disadvantage by exploding into range. We expect Gane weave his way out of danger and if this goes into the championship rounds, Gane can win this in a variety of ways.
Prediction: Gane via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ROBERT WHITTAKER VS MARVIN VETTORI
Robert Whittaker’s (23-6) has only lost to one man in his last 14 fights which include a plethora of monsters. That man is Israel Adesanya which there is no shame in losing to. He snatched the title off him back in 2019 with a virtuoso display knocking him out in the second round snapping a nine-fight win streak. Then, after Whittaker strung together three unanimous decisions of utter class against Darren Till (2020), Jared Cannonier (2020) and Kelvin Gastelum (2021), he met the reigning champ again and faired a lot better taking him to the bell in a competitive five rounds.
Marvin Vettori (18-5-1) has only lost to one man in his last 10 fights and yes, it is that man Adesanya. He first met him back in 2018 taking him to a split decision. Vettori then went on to win five straight including unanimous decisions over Jack Hermansson (2020) and Kevin Holland (2021). He was then outclassed by the champion again but has already got back in the win column with his arguably his best performance to date outpointing Paulo Costa back in October last year.
PREDICTION
Paris is being treated to a co-main event of the highest level here. The #1 and #2 ranked middleweights lock horns, but another title shot will not be coming anytime soon.
Physically, they match up very similarly and are closely matched skill wise too. On paper, it looks like Vettori will have the edge in the grappling realm and he is likely to incorporate a wrestling heavy game plan.
However, Whittaker’s wrestling is extremely underrated. The has the ability to take Vettori down himself but will likely use his skills to fend off the majority of attempts at least. This will force most of the fight to be played out on the feet where Whittaker has a slight advantage.
He is quicker, more powerful and had a wider array of attacks, in particular his kicks, but Vettori will make it a very tough fight fight and as ugly as he can. He will try and close the distance and chip Whittaker down in the clinch.
They are both made for five rounds so it will be interesting to see how they approach this three rounder. It will be very competitive and the aggressor will be the one to sway the judges and we are backing Whittaker’s class to shine through with his takedown defence and volume sealing the deal.
Prediction: Whittaker via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
NASSOURDINE IMAVOV VS JOAQUIN BUCKLEY
Nassourdine Imavov (11-3) is flying under the radar in the middleweight but has got everything it takes to break the top 10 and he is still only 26 years old. He kicked off his UFC campaign with a comfortable unanimous decision over Jordan Williams (2020) before losing a majority one to Phil Hawes (2021). That snapped a six-fight win streak, but he has responded with two exceptional performances and knockouts over Ian Heinisch (2021) and Edmen Shahbazyan (2021).
Joaquin Buckley (15-4) has made a lot of noise in his young UFC career. None more so than one of the most spectacular knockouts of all time landing that spinning back kick on Impa Kasanganay (2020). He followed that up with another starching of Jordan Wright (2020) but then got buried himself by an Alessio Di Chirico (2021) head kick. Since then, he has racked up knockouts over Antonio Arroyo (2021) and Albert Duraev (2022) sandwiching a split decision over Abdul Razak Alhassan (2022).
PREDICTION
Who knows why this incredible matchup is so low down on the card. Buckley has proven he can knockout just about anybody in the division, but a win for Imavov will put a lot of 185ers on notice.
He has better technique and more well-rounded than Buckley and as we saw in his last two fights, his power is becoming more and more threatening handing Heinisch his first ever knockout loss.
As long as he can avoid the bombs from Buckley, he should find one of many routes to victory. Along with his slick striking, he is a very strong grappler. If this is his ‘plan A’, we can see him controlling him in the clinch, taking him down and even finding a submission.
We feel Imavov has the nous on the feet to avoid any danger and counter the telegraphed shots. If he can close the distance, he should enjoy some control time and wear Buckley down.
Considering the odds and Buckley’s power, a small punt is worth it but Imavov is better everywhere and will have the home support to carry him home with a knockout, submission and decision as likely as each other.
Prediction: Imavov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CHARLES JOURDAIN VS NATHANIEL WOOD
Charles Jourdain (13-5-1) is 4-4-1 in the UFC now but he is one of the most underrated fighters in the featherweight division. He has remained active and fought three times last year. He TKO’d Marcelo Rojo before getting submitted by Julian Erosa but bounced back with a unanimous decision over Andre Ewell. He has fought twice this year already with mixed results again. He put on a clinic back in April submitting Lando Vannata and put on another exciting scrap two months later with Shane Burgos but fell on the wrong side of a majority decision.
Cut from the same cloth, Nathaniel Wood (18-5) heads to Paris to put on another show. He is 5-2 in the UFC now and stays up at featherweight hoping to make up for lost time when he could not get a fight in for 19 months. He stamped his name on the UFC map with three impressive submissions in his first three outings but then got TKO’d by the veteran John Dodson (2020). He displayed his character by responding with a unanimous decision over John Castaneda (2020) but then was handed a very tough matchup in Casey Kenney who earnt the unanimous decision (2020). Wood finally returned back in July resorting to featherweight and never looked better comfortably outpointing Charles Rosa.
PREDICTION
What a perfect way to kick off the main card as this has ‘Fight of the Night’ written all over it. They are both are extremely well-rounded with calculated aggression whether that be throwing combinations on the feet or hunting a submission on the ground.
Wood has the momentum, but Jourdain is naturally the bigger man and has amassed more UFC experience. This is a very tough fight for a second appearance in the featherweight division and it is understandable that Jourdain is the favourite especially after how he looked against Burgos despite the loss.
The striking battle will be a spectacle and fought at a frenetic pace. Wood is more likely to shoot in for a takedown, but if he gets to the floor, Jourdain has the jiu-jitsu to make it very difficult for the Londoner. Wood will need to execute a perfect game plan mixing in takedowns with his striking in particular his thunderous leg kicks. His timing will have to be on point as Jourdain is also rapid and can counter from different ranges whether be kicks or jumping knees.
This is going to be a very competitive fight and all the value is on Wood as the underdog. However, we feel Jourdain’s power and experience sway this slightly in his favour. If this goes to the bell, his flashy strikes, volume and defensive grappling could be enough to convince the judges, but do not rule Wood out.
Prediction: Jourdain via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Wood via Decision
DUSTIN STOLTZFUS VS ABUSUPIYAN MAGOMEDOV
Dustin Stoltzfus (14-4) steps in to replace Makhmud Muradov and why not after earning his first win in the UFC back in July. He is going to need all the momentum he can get in this one and hope he can put on a similar performance at UFC on ABC 3 outpointing Dwight Grant. That win extended his UFC shelf life as he was on a three-fight skid losing a unanimous decision to Kyle Daukaus (2020) and getting submitted by Rodolfo Vieira (2021) and Gerald Meerschaert (2021).
Abusupiyan Magomedov (24-4) makes his debut and although he has not been active ecently, there is a lot of buzz around him. He fought five times for the Professional Fighters League in 2018 going 3-1-1 and that loss was a devastating knockout courtesy of Louis Taylor, so slowing down the schedule was a good move. He returned to submit Slavis Simeunovic (2019) for Elite MMA Championships and Cezary Kesik (2020).
PREDICTION
Stoltzfus has a much-needed spring in his step but this is not a good matchup for him. Magomedov has the debut pressure, but he will enjoy taking on a fellow striker to display his talents.
They match up similarly in fairness as quality strikers with slick offensive grappling, but the American’s lack of power will give Magomedov some leeway.
Do not be surprised to see a bit of grappling here and expect Magomedov to grow into the fight with a strong second and third round. Stoltzfus is durable, but the German will test the chin over the course of three rounds and we are leaning towards a decision for a debut dub.
Prediction: Magomedov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JOHN MAKDESSI VS NASRAT HAQPARAST
In the last five years, John Makdessi (18-7) has only lost to Francisco Trinaldo (2020). However, he has only been fighting once a year and did not have the toughest schedule leading up to that loss. He earnt unanimous decisions over Abel Trujillo (2017), Ross Pearson (2018) and Jesus Pinedo (2019) before dropping one to the Brazilian. He returned in April last year to fight Ignacio Bahamondes and earnt a hard-fought and impressive split decision.
Nasrat Haqparast (14-3) is struggling to stay relevant in the lightweight division. A lot was expected from him, but he is 5-4 in the UFC now after losing his last two. He was coming off unanimous decisions over Alexander Munoz (2020) and Rafa Garcia (2021) leading him into two very tough matchups. He took on Dan Hooker (2021) and Bobby Green (2022) and was simply outclassed for three rounds.
PREDICTION
Makdessi was also the underdog in his last fight against a young gun. He looked great and we predicted a decision win against Bahamondes due to the matchup but this is a much harder oner for him.
Haqparast is coming off two losses but Hooker and Green would smoke Makdessi. This will be another stand-up battle but the difference will be Haqparast’s power. There is also going to be a time where Makdessi’s technique and experience will not be able to make up for youth and rawness.
The Canadian will make this competitive, especially if Haqparast is hesitant fearing a three-fight skid. Expect Makdessi to pile on the volume with a variety on kicks with Haqparast waiting to counter from his southpaw stance.
He has a monstrous left hand which he likes to hide behind a left high kick and he will only need to land it once. This should be a very fun fight and we are backing Haqparast to bounce back showing off his power for the Paris crowd.
Prediction: Haqparast via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
FARES ZIAM VS MICHAL FIGLAK
Fares Ziam (12-4) has not had the most consistent start to his UFC career going 2-2. He lost his debut to Don Madge (2019) in a unanimous decision which snapped a five-fight win streak. He then earnt two impressive decisions of his own against Jamie Mullarkey (2020) and Luigi Vendramini (2021) but is coming off the third submission loss of his career after Terence McKinney wrapped up a rear-naked choke in the first round of their fight back in February.
Michal Figlak (8-0) makes his debut protecting an unbeaten record. He made his name under the Cage Warriors banner after a long amateur career going 8-2, so he has a lot of experience under the belt. He has four knockouts to his name but is coming off three unanimous decisions over Kieran Lister (2021), Steve McIntosh (2021) and Agy Sardari back in July.
PREDICTION
Both guys have not had long to prepare for each other, but Ziam is on home turf and Figlak makes his debut with a ton of momentum which should create a very fun scrap.
They are both good strikers. Ziam has more variety from his kickboxing background whereas Figlak relies more on his hands. He will be giving up some range, but he will make up for it with his volume and power advantage.
If the Frenchman can keep Figlak at range and pepper him from a distance, he can frustrate him while bagging the rounds. However, we expect that Figlak’s aggressiveness will allow him close the distance and offload the more damaging blows with his hands targeting the head and body.
This is destined to be a very close contest and we expect a decision leaning towards Figlak especially if he mixes in his wrestling.
Prediction: Figlak via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ziam via Decision
BENOIT SAINT-DENIS VS GABRIEL MIRANDA
We learnt a lot about Benoit Saint-Denis (9-1(1)) in his two UFC appearances. He is skilled and absolutely nails. He made his debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos last year and in all honesty, took a beating. He showed incredible toughness to make it to the bell which the referee should have prevented from happening. He picked himself up and dusted himself off to return eight months later in June stepping back down to lightweight. He met Niklas Stolze and put on a great performance with a vintage submission.
He was scheduled to fight Christos Giagos who had to pull out after mangling his finger at home. That gives Gabriel Miranda (16-5) the opportunity to make his debut. He has fought for a variety of promotions and is currently on a three-fight win streak. He finished Jhon Zarate (2019), Jefferson Morais (2021) and Diego Siqueira (2021) which were the 13th, 14th and 15th submissions of his career.
PREDICTION
This has turned about to be a very intriguing matchup as they are both submission specialists. Miranda has little to lose stepping up as a replacement and Saint-Denis has buckets of potential and fighting in his home city.
The Parisian’s bread and butter is his grappling relying on his black belt judo and strength to drag his opponents down and then hunt a submission. He a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu however, Miranda is a black belt and will not be deterred if he gets taken down.
It would be a treat to see these two tangle on the mat for three rounds however we feel their grappling could cancel each other out to force portions of this fight to take place on the feet.
Expect Miranda to be aggressive and force the action with a lot of volume, but as soon as the distance closes, Saint-Denis will grab a hold of the Brazilian and take him down. The stand-up should be even, but we feel Saint-Denis’ strength and grappling will take over.
Miranda’s record is rather suspect not fighting a decent level of competition and as long as Saint-Denis avoids the looping shots on the feet and does not give any openings for a submission, he should close this one out convincing the judges with his control time.
Prediction: Saint-Denis via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
STEPHANIE EGGER VS AILIN PEREZ
Stephanie Egger (7-3) clearly wants to make up for her recent loss as she steps in on short notice to replace Zarah Fairn Dos Santos who misses out on performing in her city. Egger only fought four weeks ago at UFC Vegas 50 and was coming in off two brilliant finishes – Shanna Young (2021 – TKO) and Jessica-Rose Clark (2022 – Submission). She met Mayra Bueno Silva who let go of an armbar feeling a tap which judges outside the octagon confirm however, Egger still protests her innocence in not tapping. So, now she wants to get back in the win column as soon as possible.
She welcomes Ailin Perez (7-1) to the octagon for her debut and she is coming in hot with five finishes to her name. The only blip on her record came after an illegal knee and disqualification. Besides that, she has blown away her competition and is coming off TKO’s this year over Romina Aguirre and Stephanie Bragayrac for the Samurai Fight House promotion.
PREDICTION
Egger has only had 10 days to prepare and Perez has looked very impressive in her young career. However, her competition is absolutely nothing to write home about. Five of her eight opponents have a grand total of zero wins on the record.
The Argentinian is a brute and has power to be feared, however we can only take her previous fights with a pinch of salt. Egger will also be smaller than her, but she has raw strength, judo strength and she will not be able to throw her around.
Perez may step up to the UFC level seamlessly and there is value on her considering the odds, but we have not seen anything to suggest that she will, especially taking on someone with the grappling pedigree of Egger.