UFC 279 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 279? Sunday 11th September, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 279? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 279? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 279
What channel is UFC 279 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 279? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
KHAMZAT CHIMAEV VS KEVIN HOLLAND
Khamzat Chimaev (11-0) has created a circus, but a circus that everyone wants tickets for. After missing the welterweight mark by weighing in at 178.5 lbs, the main card has been rearranged and you have to say it suits the veterans Nate Diaz and Tony Ferguson.
They had extremely tough fights that did not make any sense. Diaz was getting fed to Chimaev after expressing his feelings about the UFC brass and Ferguson is on a four-fight skid coming off a brutal knockout yet was paired with the power puncher Li Jingliang up at welterweight.
Chimaev is lucky to stay on the card and now has Kevin Holland (23-7(1)). He originally accepted a fight with Daniel Rodriguez on short notice which would have been a barnburner. Although he has looked rejuvenated after cutting down to welterweight, 180 lbs is perfect for him which is what he was scheduled for with ‘D-Rod’.
PREDICTION
This is a very different fight for Chimaev. Holland has more dangerous tools, but this is an easier fight, on paper at least. He was expected to run through Diaz, but the veteran has the durability to drag him into the championship rounds while chipping away at him with his volume as well as having the jiu-jitsu to be a threat off his back.
Holland also has brilliant jiu-jitsu and is a threat off his back even with his hands as we saw in the Jacare Souza fight but he does not have the gas tank and has awful takedown defence. Vettori and Brunson man-handled him and we expect Chimaev to do exactly the same. The difference here is Holland’s threat on the feet.
He is 6’3” and has an 83-inch reach with knockout power. So, unlike Diaz he will be a knockout threat early in the fight. He will have eight inches on Chimaev and he has to hunt the knockout off the bat.
Chimaev will still be heavier than Holland who will not have been focusing much on his takedown defence. Chimaev also knows he has mucked up and in the UFC’s bad books so he cannot afford to take any risks by standing and trading with Holland. So, we expect him to dive in on a takedown early and face little resistance.
Holland is absolute nails and will make Chimaev work hard for a finish, but we still expect that to come in the form of ground-and-pound or a submission. Considering the odds and the fact Chimaev has not faced someone with the knockout threat of Holland, he is worth a punt for a knockout especially considering the chaos leading up to this, anything can happen.
Prediction: Chimaev via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Holland via KO/TKO
KHAMZAT CHIMAEV VS NATE DIAZ
Khamzat Chimaev (11-0) returns after passing the toughest test of his career. He stormed his way to the UFC and exploded into top prospect status by making all four of his UFC opponents look like amateurs. He submitted John Phillips (2020) before knocking out Rhys McKee (2020) and Gerald Meershaert (2020) in the space of two months and then took on the formidable Li Jingliang (2021). He proceeded to ragdoll and submit him in the first round to set up his fight with the former title challenger Gilbert Burns (2022). It was the ‘Fight of the Night’ and an absolute war coming out on top getting the nod from all three judges.
As a reward for expressing his feelings about the UFC brass, Nate Diaz (20-13) has been fed to the prodigy. The veteran has 26 UFC fights under the belt sharing the cage with greats of the sport. However, he has only won once since since 2016. That was a clinic he put on against Anthony Pettis (2019) after three years out earning a dominant unanimous decision but went on to get dominated himself. Firstly, by Jorge Masvidal (2019) where the doctor prevented any more damage and lacerations then, current welterweight champion Leon Edwards who cruised a decision until the end of the fight.
PREDICTION
This is set up to be an assassination. Chimaev is the real deal and is coming off the perfect experience in his last fight. He finally tasted adversity which you have to expect from Diaz no matter how the fight is going.
Diaz’s experience, cardio, volume boxing and jiu-jitsu is off the charts. But will that be enough to halt the Chimaev train. We do not think so. Chimaev has the ability to blitz into range, tie him up and throw him around the octagon. He also has the technique and significant power advantage to control Diaz on the deck and subdue his jiu-jitsu while raining down the ground-and-pound.
Diaz’s only chance is to hope Chimaev has the ego to stand and trade. Make him wilt with his volume or catch him clean. However, Diaz gets hit a lot and Chimaev’s striking is improving at a drastic rate. He also he has the power to cause some serious damage and paint his face a different colour.
We feel Chimaev answered all the Diaz questions against Burns who has even better jiu-jitsu and more power. Considering the damage Chimaev absorbed against him, it is hard to see Diaz knocking him out. So, how does he get the job done?
Diaz’s jiu-jitsu is too good to get submitted, and he is too durable to get put to sleep. If the beating is significant enough, the referee will call it or it will be a violent five rounds.
Prediction: Chimaev via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
LI JINGLIANG VS TONY FERGUSON
Li Jingliang (19-7) is arguably coming off the best win of his career. His previous best outing was in 2021 when he starched Santiago Ponzinibbio (2021) in the first round although the Argentinian had not fought in over three years. Jingliang then felt the wrath of the headliner Khamzat Chimaev (2021) getting tossed around the octagon before getting submitted in the first round. He was then paired with one of the most technical strikers in the division Muslim Salikhov back in July and put on a ‘Performance of the Night’ handing the Russian the first knockout of his MMA career.
Nobody thought Tony Ferguson (25-7) would be sliding on a four-fight skid when he was sitting on a 12-fight win streak – the joint longest in UFC lightweight history. Justin Gaethje 2020) was the man to snap the aura of ‘El Cucuy’ dishing out an absolute beating forcing the referee to step in during the fifth round. Competition did not get any easier losing unanimous decisions to Charles Oliveira (2020) and Beneil Dariush (2021) before getting paired with Michael Chandler (2022). He actually looked good for the first round, but Chandler decided to unleash one of of the most devastating front kicks we have seen to flatline the fan favourite.
PREDICTION
Whether it is because he knocked out Salikhov or whether it is because he accepted the fight with Chimaev. Either way, Lingliang has been gifted the biggest opportunity of his career. He has the chance of adding someone who is on a dramatic downfall but one of the biggest names in the UFC to his record.
This fight does not make much sense for Ferguson at this point in this career, but he is moving back up to welterweight where he will have more power and even more durability. He will boast a four-inch reach advantage although he will be giving up some power, particularly in the hands.
Prior to the Gaethje and Chandler fight, Jingliang’s power would not have flustered Ferguson in the slightest, but now he needs to avoid it particularly his colossal left hand. Ferguson’s volume and slicing elbows will be a constant problem but the reliance on his chin has finally caught up on his and he has to leverage his movement to stay out of trouble.
The stand-up battle will a fascinating and competitive contest. If the fight goes to the floor, ‘El Cucuy’ will be in his element, creating chaos and constantly threatening the choke with his long limbs. However, Ferguson does not necessarily have the fight IQ to make this a grappling contest and does the ego to test his chin against Lingliang which is a bad idea.
The biggest question mark here is Ferguson’s chin. Gaethje crumbled it and Chandler’s kick would have knocked out anyone in the division. If it holds up or Ferguson which is more likely at welterweight or if he gets the fight to the ground, he is a great shout as the underdog. However, we have a feeling Jingliang is going to pile on the misery for the fan favourite.
Prediction: Jingliang via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ferguson to win
KEVIN HOLLAND VS DANIEL RODRIGUEZ
Kevin Holland (23-7(1)) looks rejuvenated after cutting down to the welterweight division. The only surprise there is how easy he has made the 170 lb mark considering his 6’3” and 83-inch frame. The move was sparked by getting mauled my Derek Brunson (2021) and Marvin Vettori (2021) – losses he suffered before the controversial submission loss to Kyle Daukaus that was correctly overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to a clash of heads. Holland quickly got back to his finishing ways down a division knocking out Alex Oliveira (2022) and submitting Tim Means back in June.
Cut from the same cloth, Daniel Rodriguez (16-2) will relish the fact that this is at a catchweight of 180 lbs. He is a chunky welterweight and has only lost once in UFC so far. That was a unanimous decision to Nicolas Dalby (2020) but went on to earn one of his own against Mike Perry (2021), knock out Preston Parsons (2021) and then earn another unanimous decision over Kevin Lee in his last outing taking his UFC record to 6-1.
PREDICTION
Rodriguez is a force in the welterweight division and will be even more explosive at 180 lbs. However, this is a bad match-up for him. He has not fought in over a year and this catchweight is perfect for Holland. He has only struggled against wrestlers and Rodriguez usually just wants to stand and bang.
The striking battle will be a spectacle. Rodriguez has the explosiveness, boxing and toughness to hurt Holland, but he is giving up a significant seven inches in reach. We expect Holland to win the striking exchanges by tagging Rodriguez from a distance, stabbing him with his jab and following up with long punches and kicks.
Rodriguez is always worth a punt as the underdog and he has the durability to last three rounds, but Holland has the edge on the feet and on the ground with his jiu-jitsu. Unless D-Rod turns into a wrestler, Holland should take this.
Prediction: Holland via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rodriguez to win
IRENE ALDANA VS MACY CHIASSON
Irene Aldana’s (13-6) last fight was 14 months ago but it was a performance to savour. She took on Yana Kunitskaya coming off a unanimous decision loss to Holly Holm (2020) and pulled out a vintage TKO in the first round – the seventh knockout of her career.
Macy Chiasson (8-2) has also bounced back from a loss and schooling which was handed out by Raquel Pennington (2021) who submitted her in the second round. She returned in May this year remaining at featherweight to fight Norma Dumont. It was a hard-fought battle and she squeaked past her earning a split decision.
PREDICTION
Chiasson looked good in her last fight, but she did get tagged by Dumont on the feet. So, the worry for her here is that Aldana is one of the best boxers in the division. She packs some serious power in her hands and the longer this stays on the feet, the more you have to back the Mexican.
Chiasson boasts a four-inch reach advantage which she will only use to help tie Aldana up in a body lock to try and drag her to the ground. She is a powerful wrestler and has the technique to earn some control time.
She will need to be able to control each round to subdue Aldana and convince the judges. However, Aldana has good takedown defence and although we expect to get taken down at some point, she will keep the fight on the feet long enough to piece Chiasson up landing more damage.
This will be a competitive scrap and we feel Aldana’s heavy hands and takedown defence will earn her the win but Chiasson will make her work hard to create any space.
Prediction: Aldana via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Chiasson via Decision
JOHNNY WALKER VS ION CUTELABA
Johnny Walker (18-7) heads back out into war and features on a pay-per-view card for the first time in three years. He has not had any easy fights since starting his UFC campaign with three blistering knockouts and has paid for it. Corey Anderson (2019) shocked the New York fans by giving him a taste of his own medicine followed by a unanimous decision loss to Nikita Krylov (2020). He responded with a knockout over Ryan Spann (2020) after almost getting flattened himself but then went on to get outpointed by Thiago Santos (2021) and knocked out by Jamahal Hill (2022) to slump to 4-1 in his last five.
Ion Cutelaba (16-7-1(1)) has been assigned to continue the chaos which he was born for. He has only won once since 2019 which was a unanimous decision to Devin Clark back in September last year. It was measured performance which is rare for him and he needed another one in his last fight back in May against Ryan Spann, but it was over before it got started getting submitted in the first round denting his UFC record further to 5-6-1.
PREDICTION
The UFC clearly want to kick off this main card with a knockout although do not be surprised to see a slow start here. They will be coiled and ready to uncork bombs, but they know exactly what each other are capable of and they cannot afford another knockout loss.
It will just take one aggressive combination to spark carnage. Walker has the movement and range with a seven-inch reach and five-inch height advantage whereas Cutelaba has the explosiveness and wrestling in the locker.
They have contrasting attributes, yet similar styles but who knows what version of themselves will turn up. On their day, they can knock out just about anyone, but they are too inconsistent. At their worst, they are both reckless leaving their chin exposed where if they do not get knocked out, they gas out.
The longer Walker can keep the distance the more damage he will inflict with his jab and leg kicks, but if he lets the Moldovan get close, his chin will be vulnerable while being susceptible to getting taken down. Considering their knockout power and how close this is to call, always go for the underdog which is the Brazilian.
Prediction: Cutelaba via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Walker via KO/TKO
HAKEEM DAWODU VS JULIAN EROSA
Hakeem Dawodu (13-2-1) makes his second appearance in a year for the first time since 2019. Back then, he TKO’d Yoshinori Horie with a beautiful head kick and earnt a split decision over Julio Arce. He then extended his streak to five with another split decision over Zubaira Tukhugov (2020). He returned nine months later but got his streaked snapped by Movsar Evloev who grinded out a vintage unanimous decision, but he is already back on track after earning a unanimous decision over Mike Trizano back in February.
Julian Erosa (27-9) has never had a problem with inactivity and after returning for his third stint in the UFC in 2020, he has fought five times. He returned to take on Sean Woodson as a late replacement and caused a huge upset by submitting him in the third round. He went on to crack Nate Landwehr (2021) with a stunning flying knee before getting TKO’d himself by Seung Woo Choi (2021). However, he is back on the march after submitting Charles Jourdain (2021) and earning a split decision over Steven Peterson back in February to take his overall UFC record to 5-5.
PREDICTION
Erosa does not do boring fights and considering the skill on show, we will be in for a treat here. Dawodu is a lot more composed and technical. He gives up five inches in height but only one in reach so he will back his technique and combinations to pick Erosa apart on the feet.
Erosa has a patchy record, but he is at his peak right now. He has the ability and cardio to be a constant threat until the bell. He has better jiu-jitsu, but Dawodu has good movement and takedown defence.
We expect the majority of this fight at least to remain on the feet where the Canadian has the edge. Erosa can gain the upper hand by being the aggressor with his boxing and keeping up a suffocating pace. However, we expect Dawodu’s technique to shine through.
He will not throw as much volume, but he will be more accurate and grow into the fight landing more as he gets a read on Erosa’s movement. He may not have the power to finish Erosa, but Dawodu should be able to outclass him on the feet for three rounds.
Prediction: Dawodu via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JAILTON ALMEIDA VS ANTON TURKALJ
Jailton Almeida (16-2) was prepping for heavyweight Shamil Abdurakhimov but the Russian had to pull out with visa issues. Fortunately, he stays on the card fighting at a catchweight of 220 lbs. He is riding an impressive 11-fight win streak and tried his hand up at heavyweight in his last outing back in May. He had a very favourable matchup taking on Parker Porter, but here were still question marks whether he could handle the significant weight discrepancy. He answered those questions convincingly racking up the 10th submission of his MMA career inside the first round.
Abdurakhimov’s loss is Anton Turkalj’s (8-0) gain. He steps up to make his UFC debut. He is only 26 years old and only had eight professional fights, but he is unbeaten with a wealth of amateur experience in the bank with a record of 16-3. His last fight was back in July making an appearance on the Contender Series. He took on Acacio dos Santos and earnt a unanimous decision to start his UFC journey.
PREDICTION
We are not sure why Almeida wants to stay at heavyweight as he can easily make 205 lbs. He looked great against Porter, but there is only so far you can get in a division where you will be giving up 20-30 lbs especially against the more skilled fighters.
Abdurakhimov was another good match-up and now he has an even better one welcoming the late replacement. Turkalj is a very good fighter with a lot of potential. He is powerful and well-rounded, but he is a natural light heavyweight and his skills will count for nothing when Almeida gets his hands on him.
The Brazilian’s grappling is on another level. He is a powerhouse and has the wrestling to throw the Swede down to the canvas and has the jiu-jitsu to make quick work of him.
Prediction: Almeida via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JAKE COLLIER VS CHRIS BARNETT
Since Jake Collier’s (13-7) UFC debut all the way back in 2014, he has gone on a consecutive win – loss run. The theme of his career has been a lack of consistency starting his career as a promising middleweight and now settling for life as a heavyweight. He got inevitably schooled and knocked out by Tom Aspinall (2020) after nearly three years out, earnt a unanimous decision over Gian Villante (2020), lost a split one to Carlos Felipe (2021), submitted Chase Sherman (2022) and is coming off another split decision loss to Andrei Arlovski (2022).
Chris Barnett (22-8) has made quite the splash since dancing onto the UFC scene. He stepped up on short notice to fight Ben Rothwell (2021) and got caught in his guillotine in the second round. He then pulled out one of the most memorable knockouts we have seen in the heavyweight division – connecting with a beautiful spinning wheel kick to Villante’s (2021) dome setting up the finish. He then took on Martin Buday back in April and got caught with an illegal elbow to back of the head in the third round rendering him unable to continue while down on the scorecards.
PREDICTION
Collier does not have any impressive wins on the record, but he is a solid fighter with good technique. What Barnett lacks in technique, he makes up for in explosiveness and movement. He is very athletic and he can easily tag Collier with something he does not see coming.
Considering the odds, Barnett is worth a punt, but we are backing Collier to call upon his experience to grind out a win. We expect his boxing to do most the damage and although he is not known for his wrestling, he will not have to work hard to get Barnett down to the canvas and keep him there.
Barnett has recently had the tragic news of his fiancé passing. Dealing with that could go one of two ways for his performance and we are not sure how he will turn up, but it would be a surprise to see him win either way.
Prediction: Collier via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Barnett to win
NORMA DUMONT VS DANYELLE WOLF
Norma Dumont (7-2) is coming off the second loss of her career. Her first came on her debut which was unfortunate especially as she got knocked out in the first round by Megan Anderson (2020) who is no longer on the roster. She went on to string three impressive decision wins together over Ashlee Evans-Smith (2020), Felicia Spencer (2021) and Aspen Ladd (2021). The streak was then snapped back in May by Macy Chiasson who is also on the card in a razor-tight split decision.
She welcomes Danyelle Wolf (1-0) to the octagon for her debut and second professional MMA fight. The US National Boxing Amateur Champion made her MMA debut on the Contender Series two years ago where she earnt a unanimous decision over Taneisha Tennant. She was scheduled to fight Felicia Spencer last year but pulled out with an injury and now finally makes her debut under the bright lights.
PREDICTION
Wolf stands at 5’11” with a 70-inch reach, has good amateur experience and looks like an impressive prospect at first glance. However, she has only had 15 minutes experience in the sport and is 39 years old taking on a multi-skilled mixed martial artist.
That said, if Dumont has the ego or more the fight IQ to try and stand with Wolf, she will get humbled. It is important to note that Dumont is a national sanda champion which includes grappling. She is a good striker, but if she mixes in some takedowns and clinch work, she will make Wolf look like she does not belong in the cage.
Dumont just needs to land a couple of her powerful kicks to the unconditioned legs of Wolf and take her down to completely control the fight and that is what we expect to happen. If she decides to stand and trade for the whole fight, then suddenly there is a bit of value on the boxer.
Prediction: Dumont via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Wolf to win
CHAD ANHELIGER VS HEILI ALATENG
Chad Anheliger (12-5) graces his first pay-per-view card sitting on a 10-fight win streak. He earnt his audition on the Contender series after reeling off three knockouts in a row for Rise FC. He took out Terrance Chan (2018), Craig Maclean (2019) and Brady Hiestand (2019) before meeting Muin Gafurov (2021) and scraping through with a split decision. That earnt him the call-up where he made a perfect UFC debut knocking out Jesse Strader in the third round back in February.
He takes on Heili Alateng (15-8-2) who makes his sixth UFC appearance. He earnt decent decisions over Batgerel Danaa and Ryan Benoit in 2019 but then ran into Casey Kenney (2020) and got outclassed in a unanimous decision. He then fought to a draw with Gustavo Lopez (2021) but is coming off a ruthless knockout over Kevin Croom back in April taking less than a minute to put him away.
Prediction
This is an interesting match-up. Anheliger has all of the momentum, but if Alateng calls on his experience and wrestling he can easily cause the upset. He is worth a punt as long as he sticks to a grappling heavy game plan.
However, Anheliger has excellent takedown defence and after he shrugs off the first couple attempts, he will dishearten Alateng forcing a stand-up battle. This is where Anheliger’s cardio and output will take over and we are backing him to find a late knockout.