UFC 278 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 278? Sunday 21st August, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 278? Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 278? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 278
What channel is UFC 278 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 278? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
KAMARU USMAN VS LEON EDWARDS
The pound-for-pound King Kamaru Usman (20-1) heads to Salt Lake City for the sixth defence of his crown. With no Khabib Nurmagomedov and Jon Jones in the picture, there is no argument that he is top dog. He has been active and continues to evolve adding knockouts to his supreme cardio and wrestling game. He is on a 19-fight win streak and his title run speaks for itself starting with his dismantling of the previous champion Tyron Woodley (2019) adding Colby Covington (2019 -TKO), Jorge Masvidal (2020 – unanimous decision), Gilbert Burns (2021 – TKO), Masvidal (2021 – KO) and Covington (2021 – unanimous decision) again.
Leon Edwards (19-3(1)) has gone on his own tear since he first met Usman back in 2015. That made it 2-2 in the UFC at the time, but he has not lost since. He has not been as active fighting 10 times compared to Usman’s 13 fights in that time however, he has also added big names to the record and continues to evolve. He is coming off solid decisions over Donald Cerrone (2018), Gunnar Nelson (2019), Rafael dos Anjos (2019) and Nate Diaz back in June last year.
PREDICTION
Seven years ago, they were both good and promising welterweights, now they are both at the very top. We have seen Edwards’ grappling improve throughout his UFC career and Usman’s striking has improved drastically in his last few fights forming two complete mixed martial artists. The questions here will be if Usman can hang on the feet with Edwards and can Edwards hold his own in the wrestling exchanges.
Usman is still a limited striker, but if that straight right hand can knock out Masvidal, Edwards has no choice but to respect it. The same can be said for Edwards’ clinch and that elbow on the exit.
We can see this being one of Usman’s toughest fights. Edwards is the better striker with a slight height and reach advantage. He is incredibly illusive and hard to pin down so, Usman cannot simply rely on his wrestling and right hand for five rounds.
If Usman is overconfident in his hands, we can see Edwards causing the upset by breaking Usman down with leg kicks from his southpaw stance forcing him to shoot in and working hard to gain any control. The Brummie is simply a better striker, but his lack of killer instinct will allow Usman to adapt.
The champ has the experience and cardio to drag the fight into his domain if he suffers any adversity and grind out a decision. We expect him to work very hard and there is value on Edwards, but the pound-for-pound King should keep that status.
Prediction: Usman via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Edwards to win
PAULO COSTA VS LUKE ROCKHOLD
After Paulo Costa (13-2) outpointed fellow juggernaut Yoel Romero in 2019, nobody was expecting us to still be waiting for his next win deep into 2022. Disputes and injuries have restricted him to only two fights since, but they both losses. His first came in his heated title fight against Israel Adesanya (2020) in which he was completely humbled and outclassed getting TKO’d in the second round. He then took on Marvin Vettori in October last year and got humbled in a different way getting grinded out in a unanimous decision. He finally returns with a lot to prove.
Someone he does not want to emulate is Luke Rockhold (16-5) who suffered quite the fall from grace. He has all the talent and one of the most well-rounded skill sets on the roster, but Michael Bisping (2016) took everything from him including the middleweight title. Rockhold schooled him in 2014 on his way to becoming champion, but that knockout loss was the first of three in his next four fights. He TKO’d David Branch (2017) with ease but then got absolutely iced by Yoel Romero (2018) and Jan Blachowicz 2019) making that champion calibre talent a distant memory.
PREDICTION
It is almost as if the UFC want to see Rockhold get knocked out pairing him up with another savage knockout artist. That said, Costa is coming off his sole losses and this will be a huge test of his character.
Rockhold is better everywhere. His technique is off the charts and has some of the most underrated grappling in the entire UFC. However, his chin has crumpled five times and Costa is one of the hardest hitters in the division.
Rockhold could cruise this by peppering Costa from range, chopping his legs with his thunderous kicks, taking him down and gaining top position. Rockhold has one of the best top games in the UFC with impeccable balance, jiu-jitsu and ground-and-pound.
All of that said, we expect Costa to hunt the chin like a rabid dog until he finds it, but if Rockhold can get him down, he will make a mockery of the odds.
Prediction: Costa via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rockhold via Submission
JOSE ALDO VS MERAB DVALISHVILI
It is hard to believe Jose Aldo (31-7) is still hunting UFC titles after fighting nothing but the cream of the crop for over 13 years with 14 title fights in the bank. If you do not include the dubious split decision loss to Marlon Moraes (2019), he only lost to the former champ Petr Yan (2020) since, dropping to bantamweight. After that brutal fourth round TKO loss he has looked near his best with unanimous decisions over Marlon Vera (2020), Pedro Munhoz (2021) and Rob Font (2021) which is incredibly impressive considering the miles on his clock.
The next hungry up and comer lined up for him is Merab Dvalishvili (14-4) who none of the top 10 want a piece of right now. After his dodgy losses in his first two UFC appearances, he has carved a path to the top with seven dominant displays. He cruised six unanimous decisions and is coming off a wild fight with Moraes back in September last year coming through adversity to earn his own knockout in the second round.
PREDICTION
Aldo is one of the most respected fighters in MMA but he does deserves more. He has done it all and is beating the new breed of monsters. He just put three top contenders away down a weight class and now takes on the bogeyman of the division.
We all expect Dvalishvili to relentlessly pursue the takedown to grind Aldo down and nullify his elite weapons on the feet. Aldo’s takedown defence was immense up at featherweight and it is even better at 135 lbs.
If he can create and maintain any space, he will light the Georgian up at will. However, Aldo has suffered against pressure fighters such as Max Holloway, Alexander Volkanovski and Petr Yan. Dvalishvili brings an even more ferocious pace and will not slow down until the bell.
We expect him to at least subdue Aldo enough to grind out a decision. However, three-round Aldo is a different beast and we can easily see him finding an early knockout or defending enough takedowns for the first 10 minutes to bank the two rounds and a decision.
Prediction: Dvalishvili via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Aldo to win
YANAN WU VS LUCIE PUDILOVA
Yanan Wu (12-5) has lost four of her five UFC fights and is clinging on to her place on the roster. She lost a unanimous decision on debut against Gina Mazany (2017) and replied with a decent armbar submission on Lauren Mueller (2018) but has gone on to lose three decisions in a row to Mizuki Inoue (2019), Joselyne Edwards (2021) and Mayra Bueno Silva (2022).
She welcomes Lucie Pudilova (13-7) back to the UFC who got her marching orders after losing four on the bounce. She picked up unanimous decisions over Ji Yeon Kim (2017), and Sarah Moras (2018) but went on to lose to Irene Aldana (2018 – split decision), Liz Carmouche (2019- unanimous decision), Antonina Shevchenko (2019 – submission) and Justine Kish (2020 – unanimous decision). To her credit, she remained active going 5-1 since for the Oktagon promotion.
PREDICTION
We are not sure how these ladies bagged a spot on the pay-per-view card as in all honesty, they are at the bottom of the food chain with a combined UFC record of 3-9. There is also only one finish in those three wins which was Wu’s submission over Mueller and we would be surprised if the judges are not called upon here.
Wu is more powerful and will land the more impactful blows on the feet although Pudilova is dangerous from range. Wu is also a strong wrestler and Pudilova had solid jiu-jitsu so we expect this to be an even contest wherever it goes.
A decision is likely to fall either way with a mixture of grappling and striking. We are leaning towards Pudilova who can sway the judges with her output on the feet.
Prediction: Pudilova via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Wu via Decision
TYSON PEDRO VS HARRY HUNSUCKER
It was great to see Tyson Pedro (8-3) back at UFC Fight Night 205. We had not seen him in over four years as he recovered from three separate knee operations. He was also coming off two losses in 2018 getting submitted by Ovince Saint Preux and TKO’d by Shogun Rua so he had not won a fight in 50 months. He was gifted a very kind return fight in the form of Ike Villanueva, but it was still a test of his character which he passed with flying colours, putting on a beating and decapitating him with a leg kick before closing the show.
He has another decent match up meeting Harry Hunsucker (7-5) who is in search of his first win in the UFC. He stepped up on short notice to fight Tai Tuivasa (2021) up at heavyweight for his debut. He deserves a lot of credit of taking the fight, but he was truly out of his element and got knocked out in under a minute. He then met another Aussie nine months later in the rotund shape of Justin Tafa who took a minute longer to put him away in violent fashion.
PREDICTION
Hunsucker is a lucky man to be kicking off a pay-per-view card. He got erased in three of his last four outings and is taking on Pedro who looked exceptional in his last fight despite the layoff. He drops down to light heavyweight, but it is hard to see this going a different way to the previous two Aussie matchups.
Also, Hunsucker has never gone past the first round in his pro career and considering the difference in skill, the writing is on the wall for another early finish where Pedro can pick his poison.
Prediction: Pedro via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MARCIN TYBURA VS ALEXANDER ROMANOV
Marcin Tybura’s (22-7) best run finally came to an end back in October when he crossed paths with Alexander Volkov. He was riding an impressive five-fight win streak which included unanimous decisions over Sergey Spivak (2020), Maxim Grishin (2020) and Ben Rothwell (2020) before earning two ‘Performances of the Night’ bonuses by knocking out Greg Hardy (2020) and Walt Harris (2021). The Russian stopped him in his tracks stuffing 16 takedowns and displaying his striking prowess to walk away with a unanimous decision. Now, Tybura has a very different matchup in Salt Lake City.
Alexander Romanov (16-0) has King Kong’d his way through every opponent with his freakish power and grappling. He was gifted kind matchups for his first two UFC fights, submitting Roque Martinez (2020) and Marcos Rogerio de Lima (2020) and then had his toughest test by far. He met fellow grappling powerhouse Juan Espino (2021) and managed to convince two of the judges. He has since racked up two more vintage finishes in TKOing Jared Vanderaa (2021) and submitting Chase Sherman back in April.
PREDICTION
This is not a great matchup for Tybura. He is well-rounded but his strengths undeniably lie in his grappling and Romanov is a behemoth of a man with the power to nullify the wrestling and jiu-jitsu of the Pole.
Tybura has the advantage when it comes experience and skillset however, we feel the Moldovan’s tenacity and raw power will enable him to win the wrestling exchanges to earn control time in the clinch and even land in top position where he can unleash devastating ground-and-pound while pouncing on submissions.
Tybura also gives up position too easily and unless he can make it into the third round when Romanov will inevitably gas, it will be a tough night for him. We are backing King Kong to get the job done before it gets there.
Prediction: Romanov via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Tybura to win
LEONARDO SANTOS VS JARED GORDON
2021 was not a good year for Leonardo Santos (18-5-1) getting finished twice which were his first losses since 2009. He has only fought 13 times in that period including eight UFC bouts in which he picked up some impressive wins. He submitted Rocco Martin (2015) and knocked out Kevin Lee (2015) and Stevie Ray (2019) with many fans wondering ‘what could have been’ for the ageing jiu-jitsu wizard. Injuries have plagued his career and time finally caught up with him when he took on Grant Dawson getting knocked out in the last second of the fight. He then went on to get drained and submitted for the first time in his MMA career by Clay Guida.
Jared Gordon (18-5) also felt the wrath of a late Dawson finish. He is coming off a submission loss to him back in April which snapped a three-fight streak. After getting smoked by the current champ Charles Oliveira (2019), he went on to earn unanimous decisions over Chris Fishgold (2020) and Danny Chavez (2021) before a closer split decision over Joe Solecki (2021).
PREDICTION
Santos is a beast, but there is only so far you can go when you are that inactive with a weak gas tank. He will still be reeling off his last performance. He has gassed out before but getting submitted will live with him forever as a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner.
Santos also possesses knockout power with a seven-inch reach advantage. Gordon has also been knocked out four times in his career so, we can certainly see an early finish for Santos. If Gordon makes it out of the second round, he can get a finish or more likely a knockout himself.
If Santos paces himself and pokes him with his front kick before landing a big shot on the chin, he can put him away or pounce on a submission. The moment he starts to get sloppy, Gordon will punish him and we are backing him to get out the second round.
Prediction: Gordon via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Santos via finish
SEAN WOODSON VS LUIS SALDANA
Sean Woodson (9-1) is starting to claw some stock back after Julian Erosa submitted him a couple years ago. He had just slept Terrance McKinney (2019) with a flying knee on the Contender series and earnt a unanimous decision over Kyle Bochniak (2019) on his debut. Now, he has responded to that derailing with two good wins – a split decision over Youssef Zalal (2021) and a vintage TKO over Collin Anglin (2021).
Luis Saldana (16-7) also got his chance after a brilliant knockout on the Contender Series. He TKO’d Vince Murdock and went on to earn a unanimous decision over Jordan Griffin (2021) on debut. However, Austin Lingo snapped the five-fight win streak with a unanimous decision of his own. Saldana replied in kind back in March outpointing Bruno Silva to set up this exciting match up.
PREDICTION
Saldana is a big and long featherweight, but he will be giving up a five-inch reach and three-inch height advantage. There are not many welterweights that are 6’2” let alone at featherweight, but what makes Woodson so dangerous is that he has great technique.
He is a former Golden Gloves champion and has dangerous kicks firing from a distance. Saldana has five submissions in the bank, but he is also a good striker and will not be afraid to trade with the sniper. His ego could lose him this fight as Woodson can pick him apart and break him down with his rips to the body setting up a finish.
Prediction: Woodson via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
AJ FLETCHER VS ANGE LOOSA
Big things were expected from AJ Fletcher (9-1) as he made his debut off the back off six straight finishes including that incredible flying knee which flatlined Leonardo Damiani (2021) on the Contender Series. He entered the big stage back in March to meet Matt Semelsberger and they put on a good show but he lost a unanimous decision.
Ange Loosa (8-3) is also coming off a loss on his UFC debut. He had an unsuccessful audition on the Contender Series losing a unanimous decision in a very tough match up against Jack Della Maddalena (2021) but got the call-up after a unanimous decision of his own against John Howard (2022) for XMMA. He met Mounir Lazzez at UFC on ESPN 34 and got outpointed again.
PREDICTION
These barrels are the same height, but Loosa will be boasting a significant seven-inch reach advantage. This is a discrepancy Fletcher is used to and he makes up it by closing the distance by unleashing in the pocket and taking the fight down and hunting a submission.
Loosa has the reach to connect from a distance and the power to find the knockout. However, we expect Fletcher to swarm him, take him down and pound him out or find a late submission.
Prediction: Fletcher via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MIRANDA MAVERICK VS SHANNA YOUNG
After Miranda Maverick (10-4) dismantled Liana Jojua’s (2020) nose and outpointed Gillian Robertson (2021) she was climbing into prospect status. However, she went on to lose her next two. The first was a very tight split decision loss to Maycee Barber (2021) and then a more convincing one to Erin Blanchfield (2021). However, she replied in the perfect way by submitting Sabina Mazo back in March at UFC Vegas 50.
She takes on Shanna Young (8-4) who Is coming off the best win of her career. It was only Gina Mazany back in April, but it was a great performance TKOing her in the second round. It came with great relief as it was her first UFC win after losing a unanimous decision to Macy Chiasson (2020) and getting TKO’d herself by Stephanie Egger (2021).
PREDICTION
These ladies actually duked it out in 2019 in an exhibition bout for Invicta. Maverick took home the spoils with a first-round submission and she was only 23 at the time. She has amassed some great UFC experience since so she is understandably the favourite. However, it is surprising to see her as such a big favourite.
Young will not want to tangle with her again, but she is a lot bigger than Maverick as a former bantamweight with a four-inch height advantage. Considering the odds, she is well worth a punt especially if she lands in top position herself. However, we feel Maverick’s speed, pressure and grappling will seal the deal once again.