UFC Fight Night 210 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 210? Saturday 17th September, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 210? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 210? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night
What channel is UFC Fight Night 210 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 210? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CORY SANDHAGEN VS YADONG SONG
It is no coincidence that Cory Sandhagen (14-4) has only lost to champions in his last 12 fights. He is the real deal and since the current champ Aljamain Sterling (2020) snapped his seven-fight win streak with a submission, he has gone on to win two then lose two. He picked up spectacular knockouts, spinning wheel kicking Marlon Moraes (2020) and feeding Frankie Edgar (2021) a flying knee to stiffen the veteran. However, he then lost a razor-thin split decision to TJ Dillashaw (2021) and then a more convincing one to Petr Yan (2021).
Yadong Song (19-6-1 (1)) also has a knockout in the books over Moraes which was back in March at UFC Fight Night 203. However, that is his only appearance since he ended Julio Arce’s (2021) night with a head kick which was nearly a year ago now. Those knockouts took his UFC record to 8-1-1 and it is only enough to just creep into the top 10 rankings which tell you everything you need to know about the current state on the bantamweight division.
PREDICTION
This is the biggest opportunity of Song’s career and an odd one for Sandhagen, but he just wants to keep active as the top contenders sort themselves out. Song has more fights in the bank, but Sandhagen has accumulated some priceless experience which will only make him better.
He will boast a usual range advantage and will have three inches in height and reach on Song. He uses that range masterfully with fluid, calculated movement and he will utilize that to keep Song at a distance and frustrate him.
Song has only gone five rounds once which was back in 2017 and he lost that fight. He will not be able to outwork and out land Sandhagen, so he needs to be aggressive and break his rhythm Sandhagen which may leave his chin open.
We have barely seen Song use his grappling in the UFC, but Sandhagen’s takedown defence is so good that we expect the majority of this fight to remain on the feet anyway. Song has the heavy hands and is adding some brilliant combinations to the arsenal, but he will need a lapse in concentration from Sandhagen.
Song has what it takes to reach the top of the division, but Sandhagen is already there. Dillashaw and Yan and two of the best strikers we have ever seen in the bantamweight division and Song is not quite there yet.
Unless Song can find a home for one of his power punches or kicks, we expect Sandhagen to get stronger as the rounds go on with his movement allowing him to land more damage and he also has slick jiu-jitsu in the locker just in case the fight goes to the floor.
Prediction: Sandhagen via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CHIDI NJOKUANI VS GREGORY RODRIGUES
Chidi Njokuani’s (22-7(1)) UFC entrance was well worth the wait. After he finished his Bellator tenure losing three of his last four, we lost hope of a UFC chapter. However, after folding Cristhian Torres (2020) like laundry for LFA, he got a shot on the Contender Series and seized the opportunity by TKOing Mario Sousa (2021) to set up a debut. He then took 16 seconds to hand Marc-Andre Barriault (2022) his first knockout and then made it four knockouts from four elbowing Dusko Todorovic (2022) into oblivion.
He takes on fellow finisher Gregory Rodrigues (12-4). Although he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, he has not submitted anyone since 2018, relying on the kettle bells he has for hands. Despite getting knocked out by Jordan Williams (2020) on the Contender Series, he has rampaged his way to the UFC. He picked up two ruthless knockouts collecting the LFA middleweight title and then made his debut against Todorovic. He earnt a unanimous decision and then went on to starch Jun Yong Park (2021) before suffering his first UFC setback losing a split decision to Armen Petrosyan (2022). However, he responded in the only way he knows how by burying Julian Marquez (2022) in the first round.
PREDICTION
This will be absolute fireworks unless Rodrigues wrestles for three rounds. They are both knockout artists, but Rodrigues has elite-level jiu-jitsu in the back pocket so will be wise to try and get the fight to the ground at some point.
He has the power advantage, but Njokuani has five inches in reach and has vicious knockout power from range, so expect the Brazilian to try and close the distance. Rodrigues loves to stand and trade, however his problem here is that he is very good at it.
This will give him the confidence to land, but he will get hit in the pursuit which is not a risk worth taking against Njokuani. The clear route to victory is taking him down where a submission will open up.
That said, it is also a risk trying to close the distance against Njokuani which makes this a very interesting fight. It depends on what Rodrigues’ motive is and he is worth a punt as the underdog and we feel he will pull off the upset with more tools. A Rodrigues sub or Njokuani KO are your best bets.
Prediction: Rodrigues via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rodrigues via Submission
ANDRE FILI VS BILL ALGEO
Andre Fili (21-9(1)) was preparing for Lando Vannata which was great matchmaking especially as the vets have struggled to get any streaks going. Fili is 9-8(1) in the UFC now but he is not getting worse, just the standard of competition continues to evolve. His last win was a split decision over Charles Jourdain (2019) and he has since got wrestled for three rounds by Bryce Mitchell (2020), poked Daniel Pineda (2021 – no contest) in the eye and got TKO’d by Joanderson Brito back in April.
Bill Algeo (16-6) steps in for Vannata and although he lost two of his first three UFC fights, he is coming off two impressive wins. One of those includes a unanimous decision over Brito back in January and followed it up five months later with a ‘Performance of the Night’ forcing Herbert Burns to retire. Those wins came with great relief after losing two of his first three fights which all went to a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This is still a great match-up. They stack up very similarly physically and are both well-rounded. They both brilliant strikers, particularly from range, but if there is one discrepancy, it is the grappling.
Fili is a very underrated grappler. He is a solid wrestler with good jiu-jitsu and Algeo has been taken down is all of his fights with a mediocre 54% defence.
We expect a mixture of striking and grappling here, and the more grappling there is, the more you have to back Fili. So, this depends on Fili’s strategy. The more boring he makes it, the better chance he has, but he does not like to do boring.
Fili is the slight favourite due to his wrestling and as this is destined to be a very close and competitive scrap, the value is with Algeo especially with his cardio and volume.
Prediction: Fili via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Algeo via Decision
JOSEPH PYFER VS ALEN AMEDOVSKI
It took Joseph Pyfer (9-2) two attempts to break into the UFC, but he has everything they are looking for. His first attempt on the Contender Series did not go to plan. He met Dustin Stoltzfus (2020) and suffered a disgusting dislocated elbow from a slam. He returned over a year later for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships and picked up where he left off adding another knockout to the record courtesy of Austin Trotman (2021). He then made his second audition on the Series and followed the script this time adding the sixth knockout of his career which was over Osman Diaz back in July.
Fellow knockout artist Alen Amedovski (8-3) welcomes him to the octagon and he is fighting to save his UFC career. He arrived to the UFC with high hopes having knocked out every one of his eight opponents. However, he has lost all three of his UFC bouts. He lost a unanimous decision on debut to Krzystof Jotko (2019) and then got sparked out by John Phillips (2019). We did not see him for nearly three years after that when he returned to fight Joseph Holmes back in May and it could not have gone much worse getting submitted in the first round.
PREDICTION
The UFC are dangling Pyfer in front of Amedovski like a carrot. He knows he has to win this and they are putting another finisher in front of him knowing he is going to bite and end up swinging for the fences.
Unfortunately for Amedovski, this is not a good match up. Pyfer is more technical and measured. He is less likely to engage in a brawl and also had some decent grappling in the locker. Amedovski’s only chance is to hope he can catch Pyfer and land the knockout.
There is a chance, but on paper Pyfer should take this all day relying on his grappling to seal the deal. Considering the huge odds, the only value is something small on an Amedovski knockout.
Prediction: Pyfer via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Amedovski via KO/TKO
TANNER BOSER VS RODRIGO NASCIMENTO
There was a time when Tanner Boser (20-8-1) was considered a hot heavyweight prospect when he responded to a unanimous decision loss to Cyril Gane (2019). He took on Philipe Lins and Raphael Pessoa in 2020 and looked exceptional knocking them out in the first and second round respectively. However, he went on to lose two very close decisions to kill his momentum. He lost a unanimous one to Andre Arlovski (2020) and a split one to Ilir Latifi (2021).These left him fuming so three weeks late he took a fight on short notice against veteran Ovince Saint Preux which paid off as he notched the 11th knockout of his career
Rodrigo Nascimento (8-1(1)) also knows what it feels like to have his momentum abruptly halted. He made his UFC debut after submitting Michal Martinek (2019) on the Contender Series making it seven finishes from seven fights. He then choked out Don’Tale Mayes (2020) on debut to make it eight but then got starched by Chris Daukaus (2020) five months later. He returned in July last year to knock out Alan Baudot but it was overturned to a ‘no contest’ even though he won his appeal against a failed drugs test.
PREDICTION
On paper, this looks like a striker vs grappler match up, but it is not that straightforward. Boser does have the advantage on the feet with his speed and movement, but Nascimento can crack and Boser needs to respect that.
If the Brazilian can land something on Boser, he has the killer instinct to finish or drag him down by the neck and effortlessly cinch up a submission. If he can create a scramble, the fight will enter his domain.
However, considering Nascimento’s striking defence and gas tank, we are leaning towards Boser with his quick hands and movement to set up a decision or late knockout, but the value is on the Brazilian as the underdog.
Prediction: Boser via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Nascimento via Submission
ANTHONY HERNANDEZ VS MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT
Anthony Hernandez (9-2(1)) is as consistent as he is exciting to watch. On his debut he got caught in Markus Perez’s (2019) Anaconda choke. Six months later he wrapped his own Anaconda around Jun Yong Park but then went on to get poleaxed by Kevin Holland’s (2020) knee. As a reward, he was paired with the unbeaten jiu-jitsu master Rodolfo Vieira (2021) and pulled off one of the biggest upsets in terms of a result by submitting the Brazilian in the second round. He followed that up with a more routine unanimous decision over Josh Fremd back in April and is now ready for his second fight of the year.
Marc-Andre Barriault (14-5-1 (1)) is also not one for consistency and his last two results this year were very surprising. Not necessarily the outcomes but how they were finished. He entered 2022 off the back of a brilliant TKO over Abu Azaitar (2021) and unanimous decision over Dalcha Lungiambula (2021). He was then lined up for Chidi Njokuani’s debut who is also on the card and suffered the first knockout loss of his career. He then took on Jordan Wright and was expected to knock him out or grind out a decision however, he decided to mix things up by claiming his first submission win.
PREDICTION
Expect Barriault to try and walk Hernandez down and attempt to break his will with his heavy output and weight in the clinch. He relies on his durability and cardio, but he is up against someone who will not slow down.
Hernandez has exceptional cardio and his jiu-jitsu skills are plain to see. Barriault will look stronger in the clinch, but he will have to be careful if he tries to drag the fight to the ground as if he leaves his neck exposed, Hernandez will pounce on a guillotine.
We expect the majority of this fight to play out on the feet with Hernandez threatening the takedown and Barriault the clinch. This will be a very competitive scrap, but we are leaning towards Hernandez with better output and the cardio to finish the third round stronger to sway the judges.
Prediction: Hernandez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Barriault via Decision
DAMON JACKSON VS PAT SABATINI
Damon Jackson (21-4-1(1)) is having a lot more joy in his second UFC stint. In his first, he only fought three times in three years going without a win, but after going 7-2 for LFA he got his second opportunity. Despite getting clapped by Ilia Topuria (2020) he has collected four impressive wins and coming off a unanimous decision over Charles Rosa (2021), a vintage submission over Kamuela Kirk (2022) and a unanimous decision over Daniel Argueta back in June.
He takes on another tough up and comer in Pat Sabatini (17-3). He is currently on a six-fight win streak and looked superb in his four UFC outings. He earnt a unanimous decision over Tristan Connelly (2021) on debut, caught Jamall Emmers (2021) in a heel hook and is coming off two unanimous decisions over Tucker Lutz (2021) and TJ Laramie back in April.
PREDICTION
They are both grappling wizards in great form, but this is not a great match up for Jackson. He has the jiu-jitsu to hang with just about anyone in the division however, Sabatini is not only a beast on the mat, but he is also a good boxer with tremendous cardio.
We do not feel Sabatini will be able to submit Jackson, but he has the wrestling and power to seal his own takedowns and assume top control. At the least he can nullify Jackson’s threat and outwork him on the feet with his volume.
Prediction: Sabatini via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ASPEN LADD VS SARA MCMANN LOWDOWN
Aspen Ladd (9-3) finally makes this showdown after pulling out of their first scheduling in 2020 blowing out her knee and then testing positive for Covid last month. She has got a couple fights in during that time, but they have not gone to plan losing unanimous decisions to Norma Dumont (2021) up at featherweight and Raquel Pennington Pennington back in April.
Sara McMann (13-6) will be 42 next week but she is still soldiering on in the premiere organization. It helps that she is only averaging one fight a year, but it is clear she reached her ceiling a long time ago. She suffered back-to-back submissions against Ketlen Vieira (2017) and Marion Reneau (2018) but bounced back against Lina Lansberg (2020) wrestling her to a unanimous decision. She then got submitted for a fourth time against the former champ Julianna Pena (2021) and then returned over a year later in March this year with her wrestling earning her another unanimous decision over Karol Rosa.
ASPEN LADD VS SARA MCMANN PREDICTION
Ladd is a powerhouse with heavy hands and good grappling, but it still feels like we are waiting for her to start fulfilling her potential. We fully know what to expect McMann on the other hand. If she is up against someone with good jiu-jitsu or good takedown defence, she has no answer, but if she can land the takedown, her Olympic pedigree wrestling makes her opponents look amateur.
Fortunately for her, Ladd is not a jiu-jitsu specialist and is no technician on the feet. She is the favourite, but she only looks good if she can get in top position and she is up against an Olympic wrestler.
We expect this to be very competitive and on paper, McMann makes more sense and can easily grind out a decision with her wrestling, so she is worth the bet. However, Ladd is 15 years younger which has to play into this. She is also continuing to improve and we can also see her sharpening up her striking and going toe-to-toe with McMann in the grappling exchanges.
We are leaning towards Ladd, especially if the weight cut goes smoothly, but McMann is the smart money.
Prediction: Ladd via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: McMann via Decision
TREY OGDEN VS DANIEL ZELLHUBER
Trey Ogden (15-5) heads to Vegas in search of his first UFC win. He arrived to the big time off the back of three straight submissions – Brad Grelck (2019) for Blue Corner Promotions, Cody Cariilo (2020) for FAC and JJ Okanovich (2021) for Fury FC. He met Jordan Leavitt for his debut back in April and he came up just short in a split decision.
Now, he welcomes Daniel Zellhuber (12-0) for his long-awaited debut. The unbeaten Mexican tore up the local scene racking up seven knockouts and two submissions to earn an audition on the Contender Series. He was paired with Lucas Almeda who was also unbeaten at the time with 11 wins in the bank, but Zellhuber kept his record intact with a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Zellhuber has all the hype and is the hefty favourite. We have seen tougher debuts, but this is a real test for the 23-year-old. He is a rangy lightweight standing at 6’1” with a 77-inch reach and will boast five inches in reach over Ogden.
He will try and leverage that reach by picking Ogden apart from range. Expect Ogden to try and close the distance and pounce on any opportunity to drag the fight to the ground and show off his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt skills.
We are backing Zellhuber to create enough space with his kicks and convince the judges with his striking output, but there is value on Ogden considering the odds.
Prediction: Zellhuber via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ogden vis Submission
NIKOLAS MOTTA VS CAMERON VANCAMP
Nikolas Motta’s (12-4) UFC debut did not go as planned. He was coming off three impressive wins – a starching of Cesar Balmaceda (2019) and unanimous decisions over Juan Gonzalez (2019) for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships and Joseph Lowry (2020) and the Contender Series. That set up a debut against the most capped man in the UFC Jim Miller and he was the favourite but got caught with a beautiful step in right hook to suffer the third knockout of his career.
Cameron VanCamp (15-6-1 (1)) is also coming off a brutal knockout loss on debut. It was a tough pairing as well taking on Andre Fialho at UFC 274 back in May. He was looking good but got reckless against the boxer getting clipped by a crisp left hook. That knockout snapped a four-fight win streak which included three submissions.
PREDICTION
These two are going to ensure the card starts off with a bang. Motta is the favourite and we can see why as he has great hands and mixes in his kicks well with a good clinch. His wrestling is nothing to write home about, but VanCamp also prefers to stand and bang.
The striking contest will be a riot and considering the defensive holes in VanCamp’s game, you have to back Motta. However, VanCamp will have a significant size and power advantage with a four-inch reach and five-inch height advantage.
If he uses that advantage to grapple, he can easily take Motta down. So, this really depends on what VanCamp’s game plan. Either way, he has all the value as the underdog, and we have a feeling he will pull off the upset on the ground.