UFC Vegas 61 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 211? Saturday 1st October, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 211? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 211? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night
What channel is UFC Fight Night 211 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 211? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MACKENZIE DERN VS XIAONAN YAN
Mackenzie Dern (12-2) headlines her second UFC Fight Night which is surprising considering the matchmaking. Last time she headlined was in October last year against Marina Rodriguez who snapped her four-fight win streak with a unanimous decision. However, she returned in April and bounced back against the veteran Tecia Torres, squeaking out the dub with a split decision.
Xiaonan Yan (15-2(1)) shares the headline spot coming off two losses. She arrived to the UFC back in 2017 with only one loss to her name and six unanimous decision wins later including Angela Hill (2019), Karolina Kowalkiewicz (2020) and Claudia Gadelha (2020) she stormed up the strawweight ranks. However, she then ran into the current champion Carla Esparza (2021) who snapped the streak with vicious ground-and-pound and then Rodriguez made it two losses on the trot with a split decision back in March.
PREDICTION
On paper, this is a classic striker vs grappler match-up, but Dern’s striking is improving drastically under Jason Parillo and Yan’s grappling continues to come on at Team Alpha Male. That said, they should try and avoid each other’s strengths like the plague, especially Yan who has to try and avoid hitting the deck at all costs as one mistake will be game over.
The fight will start on the feet and Dern will try and set up a takedown with her strikes. So, Yan has to start quickly and capitalize. She is in a different league when it comes to striking but she has to be patient and not let Dern grab a hold of her.
This all depends on whether Dern can get the takedown and five rounds will give her more opportunities. She will get pieced up while on the feet, but the fact Yan does not have significant knockout power and average takedown defence gives Dern more chance of eventually finding a submission.
If Dern can get Yan down to the mat, it will only be a mater of time before she cinches up a submission. If she can not get her down, she will get peppered for five rounds and may even suffer a late knockout.
The chances are Dern will land one takedown over the course of five rounds, so we are backing her for another sub, but this could be a very tough fight for her.
Prediction: Dern via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Yan to win
RANDY BROWN VS FRANCISCO TRINALDO
Randy Brown (15-4) makes the walk for his 14th UFC fight. He is 9-4 but has fought very tough competition. His last last loss was to perennial top contender Vicente Luque (2020) who inflicted the second knockout of Brown’s career. However, he has responded with a submission over Alex Oliveira (2021), a unanimous decision over Jared Gooden (2021) and a split decision over Khaos Williams (2022).
The old war horse, Francisco Trinaldo (28-8) walks out for his 26th UFC outing. The man is a freak still hanging with some of the best fighters in the world at the age of 44. He is 18-7 in the UFC which is incredible considering the majority of those fights were at lightweight which has consistently been one of the most stacked divisions in the UFC. He made his debut up at welterweight against Muslim Salikhov (2021) losing a unanimous decision but has responded with two decisions of his own against Dwight Grant (2021) and Danny Roberts (2022) to go 5-1 in his last six.
PREDICTION
We are surprised it took Trinaldo this long to move up to 170 lbs. He may have been put off due to getting paired with frames like Brown who stands at 6’3” and will boast a five-inch height, eight-inch arm reach and five-inch leg reach advantage.
Brown also uses that range very well striking effectively from a distance, but also mixes in his grappling well as we saw in the Williams fight. We know what to expect from Trinaldo and that will be him bringing his toughness, strength and well-rounded skill set to the table.
The Brazilian is very consistent which makes this a great test for Brown. We expect him to try and clinch up with Brown and tie him up against the cage to negate the range. However, we are backing Brown to leverage his reach before getting tied up, peppering him with his jab and kicks.
It is always hard to back against Trinaldo, but Brown has all the form, the size, the youth and the confidence to utilize his attributes and earn a decision at least.
Prediction: Brown via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
RAONI BARCELOS VS TREVIN JONES
When Raoni Barcelos (16-3) outpointed Khalid Taha (2020) in a ‘Fight of the Night’ display to pick up his fifth UFC win in a row, nobody predicted he would be staring at a three-fight skid. That decision extended his streak to nine however, he then crossed paths with Timur Valiev (2021). It was another ‘Fight of the Night’ but he lost a majority decision. The following year, he welcomed Victor Henry to the UFC expected to return to the dub column, but the debutant pulled off the upset with an impressive unanimous decision victory.
Trevin Jones (13-8(1)) is also staring at a three-fight skid after losing his last two. He got submitted by Saidyokub Kakhramonov (2021) and recently got outpointed by Javid Basharat (2022) which came after two impressive knockouts. He finished Valiev (2020) on his debut only for it to get overturned for testing positive for marijuana, but he returned to pick up where he left off dusting Mario Bautista (2021) in the second round.
PREDICTION
This has ‘Fight of the Night’ written all over it despite the anxiety of a three-fight skid. They are in desperate form but there is no doubting their talents. They both prefer to stand as dangerous strikers, but they are well-rounded. Particularly Barcelos as a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.
This really depends on how Barcelos approaches this. If he does not mix his weapons up and thinks he can take Jones out on the feet, he will be risking everything. If he decides to mix in the takedown, his jiu-jitsu will carve out his route to victory.
Jones represents the value pick, especially if he paces himself, but we are backing Barcelos to pull out a more measured performance calling upon his strengths to stop the streak.
Prediction: Barcelos via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Jones to win
SODIQ YUSUFF VS DON SHAINIS
Sodiq Yusuff (12-2) heads to the APEX for the third time in a row. His first appearance there for the UFC did not go to plan meeting Arnold Allen (2021). He was in red hot form riding a six-fight streak coming off a TKO over Gabriel Benitez (2019) and a unanimous decision over Andre Fili (2020). However, the Brit snapped the streak with a unanimous decision of his own. Yusuff returned nearly a year later to take on Alex Caceres and looked great convincing all three judges once again.
Now, he welcomes Don Shainis (12-3) to the octagon for his debut. He has only lost once in his last 10 which was a unanimous decision to Nathan Williams (2021) for Cage Titans. However, he has fought five times since already including four bouts this year. So, he is coming in hot with five wins and three knockouts on the bounce over Jay Ellis (Cage Titans), Cody Pfister (Fighting Alliance Championship) and Brice Picaud (Cage Titans).
PREDICTION
Shainis is coming in hot, but this is an extremely tough debut for him. Yusuff has amassed some solid experience now, he is well rounded, packs a ton of power and will boast a four-inch reach and three-inch height advantage.
Despite the range discrepancy, Shainis is also a stick of dynamite. He has blown eight of his opponents out in the first round and he will be wise to burst out the gate against Yusuff. That said, he has not fought anyone on Yusuff’s level yet so there are a lot of question marks.
He is reckless but has the power to cause a quick upset so is worth a punt considering the huge odds. However, we are backing the more experienced and polished Yusuff to weather the storm and find a late knockout after Shainis empties the tank.
Prediction: Yusuff via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Shainis via KO/TKO
MIKE DAVIS VS VIACHESLAV BORSHCHEV
Mike Davis (9-2) was preparing for Uros Medic, but now has a change of opponent as he comes off the biggest win of his career. Debuts do not get much tougher than Gilbert Burns (2019) who submitted him in the second round and although he has only fought twice since, he has picked up two very impressive wins. He got his UFC account up and running by flatlining Thomas Gifford (2019) and eventually returned 15 months later to put on a ‘Fight of the Night’ with Mason Jones and earning the unanimous decision.
Viacheslav Borshchev (6-2) steps in for Medic and is clearly desperate to make up for his past performance. He was coming off a four-fight win streak knocking out all of his victims including Chris Duncan (2021) on the Contender Series and Dakota Bush (2022) on his UFC debut. However, he is coming off a more uneventful unanimous decision loss to Marc Diakiese back in March.
PREDICTION
They are both sublime strikers and this should be a ‘Fight of the Night’ contender. Davis has a three-inch reach advantage and also has the edge in terms of speed and explosiveness. Borshchev is more technical with a more diverse arsenal and has more experience in the bank with a strong amateur background.
The stand-up battle will inevitably be a thrilling contest and they are clearly more than capable of finding the knockout. However, we are backing Davis as he has a takedown in the locker to steal the rounds. He has also had longer to prepare, so we are backing him to keep a better pace finishing strong.
Prediction: Davis via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ALEXEY OLEYNIK VS ILIR LATIFI
The wily old veteran Alexey Oleynik (59-16-1) walks out for his 78th pro MMA fight. The aptly named ‘Boa Constrictor’ has 47 submissions on the record. After a split decision over the former champion Fabricio Werdum, he went on a three-fight skid. He got TKO’d by Derrick Lewis (2020) and Chris Daukaus (2021) before a unanimous decision loss to Sergey Spivak however, he responded with a vintage performance by wrapping Jared Vanderaa up in a scarf hold.
Ilir Latifi (15-8(1)) went 7-4 at light heavyweight which eventually saw the Swede abandon the weight cut to embark on a quest with the bigger boys. He only lost to top tier 205ers including Jan Blachowicz (2014), Ryan Bader (2016), Corey Anderson (2018) and Volkan Oezdemir (2019) and we feel he had a lot more to offer in the division but nonetheless he has decided to tangle with the likes of Derrick Lewis (2020) and co. A tough welcome to the division and he avoided the knockout but lost a unanimous decision. However, he picked up a much-needed win last June scraping past Tanner Boser in a split decision.
PREDICTION
Third time lucky for these two and hopefully Latifi makes it to the octagon this time. He will unsurprisingly give up a height and reach advantage, seven inches of reach in fact which the Russian will look to leverage to wrap up a submission.
Latifi is a juggernaut of a grappler and stubby powerhouse which will make the grappling exchanges very interesting. Oleynik’s weakness these days is his chin and struggles against knockout artists which Latifi is not, but the Swede will still be wise to try and make this a striking contest.
Oleynik is very awkward and has a habit of landing from unpredictable angles which we can see throwing Latifi’s game plan off forcing him to tie up in the clinch. This is when we would favour Oleynik who also has that Ezekiel choke in the locker.
They are different fighters, but we feel this will be very evenly matched making it tough to call. Oleynik is the underdog and Latifi has never been submitted, but we are backing the Russian who will be very grateful for fighting someone smaller without that knockout threat.
Prediction: Oleynik via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Oleynik via Submission
KRZYSZTOF JOTKO VS BRENDAN ALLEN
Krzysztof Jotko (24-5) continues to show his early UFC form going 5-1 in his last six. His last six UFC wins have all come via decision and after outpointing Alen Amedovski (2019), Marc-Andre Barriault (2019) and Eryk Anders (2020), he ran into Sean Strickland (2021) who simply had too much class in the cage collecting a decision of his own. However, however he has responded with two more dubs over veterans Misha Cirkunov (2021) and Gerald Meershaert (2022).
Brendan Allen (19-5) also felt the wrath of Strickland (2020) who TKO’d him to snap an impressive seven-fight win streak. He bounced back with a submission over Karl Roberson (2021) and decision over Punahele Soriano (2021) but then got TKO’d again, this time by Chris Curtis (2021). However, like Jotko, he is back on the march with two wins this year – a submission over Sam Alvey and unanimous decision over Jacob Malkoun.
PREDICTION
These two size-up evenly with Allen boasting an inch in height and Jotko a couple inches in reach. They are also both very well-rounded and we expect to see a mixture of striking and grappling here.
Jotko will prefer to keep the fight on the feet, utilizing his technique and volume to rack up the points until the bell. Allen will be wise to close the distance and show off his grappling. He is a decent wrestler, but he does his best work on the floor with his jiu-jitsu and can easily overwhelm the Pole on the canvas.
The problem is Allen’s consistency. If he is on and has a good strategy, we can see him pulling out an impressive performance and even a finish, but we are backing the more consistent Jotko to defend enough takedowns, keep it simple and squeak out another decision.
Prediction: Jotko via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Allen to win
MAXIM GRISHIN VS PHILIPE LINS
Maxim Grishin (32-9-2) is coming off a big win making William Knight pay for a big weight miss coming in 13 lbs over the light heavyweight limit. That win came with huge relief as he was 1-2 in the UFC at that point. He lost unanimous decisions to Dustin Jacoby (2021) and Marcin Tybura (2020) which sandwiched a vintage TKO win over Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2020)
Philipe Lins (15-5) is also coming off a much-needed win. After being crowned the PFL heavyweight tournament champion in 2018, he made his UFC debut in 2020 against the legend Andrei Arlovski. He lost a unanimous decision and then got knocked out by Tanner Boser a month later. He did not return for a couple years but dropped back down to light heavyweight and looked much better outpointing Marcin Prachnio.
PREDICTION
These guys are not getting any younger nearing 40 and are not going to trouble the light heavyweight rankings, but it is better to see them at 205. They match up very similarly physically, but Grishin has the advantage on the feet and Lins has the advantage in the grappling department.
So, if Grishin can create and maintain the space, he will get the better of the Brazilian. He is extremely accurate and possesses devastating leg kicks which he will unleash at any opportunity. This will force Lins to shoot in or at the least clinch up.
He has the ability to subdue Grishin, but the question will be, how long for and how much damage will he absorb beforehand. This is close to call, but we are backing Grishin’s takedown defence and leg kicks to make the difference and sway the judges.
Prediction: Grishin via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Lins to win
GUIDO CANNETTI VS RANDY COSTA
Guido Cannetti (9-6) gave himself a lifeline in his last fight. He was fighting less than once a year and on a three-fight skid getting submitted by Marlon Vera (2018), knocked out by Danaa Batgerel (2020) and outpointed by Mana Martinez (2021). He then took on Kris Moutinho back in March and plucked a first-round knockout out the bag to extend his shelf life in the UFC.
Randy Costa (6-3) is looking at a three-fight skid himself with another loss here. He got knocked out by Adrian Yanez (2021) and Tony Kelley (2021) which came after two blistering knockouts of his own against Boston Salmon (2019) and Journey Newson (2020). So, he is 2-3 in the UFC now, but he is better than that.
PREDICTION
It was only a matter of time before Costa’s defensive frailties were exposed especially coming up against fighters with the technique of Yanez. That said, his offensive qualities are electrifying and for that reason we would be surprised if the UFC cut him with another loss.
So, despite the form we still expect Costa to aggressively hunt the jaw. Despite the 42 years on the clock, Costa has to respect Cannetti’s own weapons in particular his leg kicks and left hand. He has also only been knocked out once and has a chin on him.
However, we feel Costa has too much firepower, speed and youth for the Argentinian. Cannetti is worth a punt considering the odds and Costa’s defence, but we are backing Costa to find a home for his hands and shins.