UFC on ESPN 41 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 60? Saturday 13th August, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 60? Pechanga Arena, San Diego, California (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 60? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 60 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 60? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MARLON VERA VS DOMINICK CRUZ
Marlon Vera (19-7-1) is hitting his peak as he takes on another former champion. The last champ he fought was the former featherweight king Jose Aldo (2020) who simply had too much class for him on the night sealing a unanimous decision. That made it two losses in three, but he responded with a classy unanimous decision of his own against Davey Grant (2021) and then put on his best performance to date, piecing the former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (2021) up before sealing his fate with a beautiful front kick. He then followed that up with another unanimous decision over Rob Font back in April.
Dominick Cruz (24-3) is proving there is still life in the old ‘GOAT’ yet. A myriad of career-threatening injuries robbed him from enjoying his prime, but he has fought three times since 2020 which is great to see. He waltzed straight back into a title shot against Henry Cejudo (2020) after nearly four years out recovering from more injuries. The return did not go his way suffering an early TKO, but he racked up quality decision wins last year showing glimpses of his old self. He earnt a split decision over Casey Kenney and then convinced all three judges against his friend Pedro Munhoz.
PREDICTION
A win for either man will prove that they can compete for the title. Vera will prove he can step up to that level and Cruz will prove he is still there, but that said, the bantamweight division has never been so stacked and there is already a queue of contenders waiting in line for Aljamain Sterling.
Cruz is made for the championship rounds and his cardio and experience is still there plain to see. Vera went five rounds for the first time in his career against Font but looked incredible increasing the pace and output as the fight went on. As we expect this to stay on the feet, it is destined to be a fast-paced chess battle.
Vera has more tools attacking with all eight limbs whereas Cruz relies more on his boxing and movement, particularly his defence. He has lost a touch of pace which is inevitable over time and injuries, but his defence will have to be on point against Vera.
Expect Vera to target the compromised legs of Cruz hoping to disable his movement like Cejudo did. He will want to chop him down so he can enter the pocket and unleash kicks and knees down the middle. Cruz will look to frustrate him making him hit clean air. He will know Vera can get easily frustrated and he will use his nous and composure to lure him in and pick him apart with counters from awkward angles.
We can see a vintage high-output, defensively sound Cruz performance especially as Vera eats a lot shots in every fight. We can also see Vera at his absolute best disabling Cruz with leg kicks and constantly poking him with his front kick piling on more damage to set up a late finish or decision. Either way this is going be a thrilling high-level battle.
Prediction: Vera via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Cruz via Decision
NATE LANDWEHR VS DAVID ONAMA
Nate Landwehr (15-4) has had more fights fall through than actual appearances in the octagon. After submitting Ludovit Klein (2021) which will continue to age well, Lerone Murphy could not meet him at UFC on ESPN 33 and David Onama stepped up to replace him, but then Landwehr had to pull out himself. He was then scheduled to fight Zubaira Tukhugov last week at UFC Vegas 59 with visa issues forcing the Russian to stay at home, but fortunately, Onama has stepped up again to fill the void.
David Onama (10-1) is making a habit of stepping up on short notice. He did for his debut taking on Mason Jones up at lightweight and gave a good account of himself but lost a unanimous decision. He responded with a brilliant TKO over Gabriel Benitez back in February and then had Austin Lingo lined up at UFC Vegas 58 who pulled out giving Garrett Armfield the opportunity to make his debut and get submitted. A month later, he will finally meet his man.
PREDICTION
We are very grateful this matchup has been rearranged as they are both very exciting to watch. Landwehr is a wildman and an aggressive grappler whereas Onama is more composed with a very high ceiling and well-rounded skillset.
Onama is the more technical fighter, but Landwehr is going to bring a furious pace for three rounds. If he works on his defence and does not take many big shots, he can drag Onama into deep waters with his high output mixing in takedowns and clinch work.
However, that defence is a real worry when taking on someone with the power of Onama. He eats nearly six significant strikes per minute and if he eats that many, he will going to sleep. If he adopts a grappling heavy game plan, we can see him grinding out a decision, but we expect his ego to take over and brawl with Onama.
There is a lot of value on Landwehr considering the odds, but we are backing Onama to find the knockout or earn a decision.
Prediction: Onama via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Landwehr to win
DEVIN CLARK VS AZAMAT MURZAKANOV
Devin Clark (13-6) never seems to have an easy fight in the UFC and has been assigned another monster. His easiest outing was Dequan Townsend (2020) earning a unanimous decision and made it two in a row after grinding out Alonzo Menifield the same year. He then ran into Anthony Smith (2020) and his arm triangle and Ion Cutelaba (2021) piled on the misery with a unanimous decision. However, he is coming off a brilliant TKO meeting William Knight up at heavyweight back in April.
Azamat Murzakanov (11-0) has looked terrifying so far. We first saw him on the Contender Series with nine ruthless dubs already in the bank from the local scene. He met Matheus Scheffel (2021) and swatted him away with his heavy hands. He then met Tafon Nchukwi for his debut back in March and put him to sleep in the third round with a devastating knee to the dome.
PREDICTION
Murzakanov is the favourite and the majority expect to see his knockout prowess on full display. However, Clark has the skillset and experience to derail the Russian. He has the size, power and wrestling to subdue the knockout threat and wear Murzakanov down for three rounds.
That said, what Murzakanov will lack in size, he makes up for in speed. He has great hand speed and we can easily see him tagging Clark for as long as the fight goes on. So, he needs to be patient and pace his bursts. The longer he can maintain the distance and keep the fight on the feet, the more chance he has in picking up his ninth knockout.
Although the Russian will be a severe threat whenever they are on the feet, we are backing Clark to mix in his leg kicks and close the distance to wear Murzakanov down with his grappling to seal a decision. A Clark decision or Murzakanov knockout are your best bets here.
Prediction: Clark via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Clark via Decision
ARIANE LIPSKI VS PRISCILA CACHOEIRA LOWDOWN
After missing weight last week at UFC Vegas 59, Ariane Lipski (14-7) was not medically cleared to fight postponing this pairing for San Diego. She has recently bounced back from a two-fight skid for the third time in her career. The second time occurred in her first two UFC fights in 2019 against Brits Joanne Wood and Molly McCann. She responded with a unanimous decision over Isabela de Padua (2019) and merciless kneebar on Luana Carolina (2020) but slipped again getting TKO’d by Antonina Shevchenko (2020) and Montana De La Rosa (2021). However, she has kept afloat with a unanimous decision over newcomer Mandy Bohm.
Priscila Cachoeira (11-4) got off to an even worse start to her UFC career. She received a baptism of fire on debut getting mauled and submitted by the flyweight Queen Valentina Shevchenko (2018) with McCann and Carolina piling on the misery the following year with unanimous decisions. Her next two opponents were less skilled, but she showed a lot of character in replying with two knockouts over Shana Dobson (2020) and Gina Mazany (2021). She then got submitted by Gillian Robertson (2021) but is also coming off a hard-fought decision over Ji Yeon Kim back in February.
ARIANE LIPSKI VS PRISCILA CACHOEIRA PREDICTION
This is destined to be fireworks. They are both aggressive and always hunt the finish. Cachoeira is purely a striker and has the power to cause any 125 pounder issues. Lipski is also a quality striker from a Muay Thai background so we can expect some spicy exchanges on the feet.
Both of their weaknesses lie in their wrestling although this will be key for Lipski. She has got beaten up on her back, but she has brilliant jiu-jitsu and she will pounce on any opportunity to get the fight to the ground so she can hunt a limb or the neck.
If this stayed on the feet for three rounds, Cachoeira’s power and aggression will shine through, but Lipski has the skill to mix things up. She can utilize her technique and reach to counter the Brazilian and if she can take the fight away from her in the clinch and if it goes to the floor a submission may open itself up.
Prediction: Lipski via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Cachoeira to win
GERALD MEERSCHAERT VS BRUNO SILVA
Gerald Meerschaert (34-15) walks out for his 17th UFC bout. He is 9-7 in the big time now and although he is not going to trouble the middleweight rankings, he always brings the entertainment. After Khamzat Chimaev (2020) added him to the highlight reel making it two knockouts on the bounce for Meerschaert, he responded with three brilliant submissions in a row. Firstly, he guillotined fellow grappler Bartosz Fabinski and then derailed the prospect Makhmud Muradov snapping his 14-fight win streak. He then made it 3-0 for 2021 by wrapping Dustin Stoltzfus up in a rear-naked choke. His fortunes have not continued this year however, losing a unanimous decision to Krzysztof Jotko.
Bruno Silva (22-7) does not deal in boring fights either. He entered the UFC off the back of four straight knockouts collecting the M-1 middleweight title in the process. He stepped up a level seamlessly carrying on his violent form pounding out Wellington Turman (2021) on debut, assaulting Andrew Sanchez’s (2021) face and wrecking Jordan Wright to cap off a perfect year. He was then paired with Alex Pereira back in March and hung with the kickboxing sensation but lost the unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
On paper, this is a nightmare matchup but as we know, Meerschaert likes to tear up the script and he has the submission prowess to pounce on the slightest opening. He has struggled against heavy hitters and Silva not only has canon ball hands, he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu which may close the door on Meerschaert.
Silva can hang with Meerschaert on the mat, but we do not expect him to try. Instead, he is going to hunt the chin and will not need many clean strikes to shut the lights out. As for Meerschaert, he will go about business as usual and try and create a scramble to pounce on the back.
He has every chance if he can catch Silva off guard and rock him. However, he will be playing with fire and unless he makes this boring and wrestles him for three rounds, the Brazilian is likely to find a home for one of those cannon balls.
Prediction: Silva via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ANGELA HILL VS LUPITA GODINEZ
Angela Hill’s (13-11) record is not very flattering, but that is what happens when you start your MMA career in the UFC. Despite showing improvements, she is 1-5 in her last six. She lost dubious split decisions to Claudia Gadelha (2020) and Michelle Waterson (2020) before earning her second unanimous decision over Ashley Yoder (2021). She has since gone on to get outpointed by Tecia Torres (2021), Amanda Lemos (2021) and Virna Jandiroba (2022).
Lupita Godinez (8-2) is just starting to get going in the UFC. She lost a split decision to Jessica Penne (2021) on debut but responded with a ‘Performance of the Night’ and submission over Silvana Gomez Juarez (2021). She then accepted a fight the following week and up a weight class against Luana Carolina (2021). The gamble did not pay off losing a unanimous decision, but she went back down to strawweight to pick up two of her own against Loma Lookboonmee (2021) and Ariane Carnelossi back in May.
PREDICTION
This is not a great match-up for Hill considering her form. Godinez is not a big name and she has the skill set to expose the holes in Hill’s game. Her grappling has come on leaps and bounds and she boasts a 76% takedown defence however, she has been taken down in her last seven fights.
As for Godinez, she has taken down all five of her UFC opponents averaging over five takedowns per fight. She took Carnelossi down eight times and constantly threatened the submission. Hill will be a lot harder to take down, but it does not look good for her on paper.
Hill needs to blast out the gate and put her striking and range advantage to use. She has excellent Muay Thai and needs to hurt Godinez early. However, the key here is the Mexican’s tenacity and persistence.
She will not get discouraged if she fails with the first couple takedown attempts or gets tagged. She will be relentless is trying to chain the takedowns together and we expect her to get Hill on her back for large portions of the fight to give the judges an easy decision.
Prediction: Godinez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CYNTHIA CALVILLO VS NINA NUNES
After her last fight, Cynthia Calvillo (9-4-1) looked like she was ready to check out of the sport all together. She took on Andrea Lee in November last year and it was expected to be very competitive, but she hardly put up a fight and threw the towel in after the second round. That made is three losses in a row after Jessica Andrade also TKO’d her two months prior which came after a dominant unanimous decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian a year before. It is good to see her back and we hope she is motivated.
Nina Nunes’ (10-7) long-awaited return was expected a couple weeks ago at UFC Vegas 58 but she fell ill on the day of the fight. Gutting, especially as she has only fought once in three years. Prior to that, she got fed to one of the best female wrestlers we have seen in Tatiana Suarez who earnt a unanimous decision snapping an impressive four-fight win streak. She eventually returned in April last year against the jiu-jitsu wizard Mackenzie Dern who made short work of Nunes catching her in an armbar in the first round.
PREDICTION
Both ladies are at a crossroads with another loss leaving them in limbo. Nunes is 36 years old now and competition is only getting tougher. As for Calvillo, she has a ton of talent as a tough and technical boxer with solid grappling, but heart and fight IQ has let her down so who knows what is next for her if she loses four on the bounce.
She will have the edge here in grappling department, but it would be a surprise if she stuck to that as a game plan. It was a clear path to victory against Chookagian, but after she fended off three attempts, Calvillo stopped trying and then got pieced up on the feet for the rest of the fight.
We can see that happening again here. Nunes does not have the same range, but she has the technique and power to win the exchanges and cause more damage. If this remains standing, you have to back Nunes, but if Calvillo gets her wrestling boots on, this will be very interesting.
That said, it must be incredibly tough to get back to anywhere your best after giving birth let alone fight in the UFC. Considering Calvillo’s inconsistency, Nunes is the value bet as the underdog, but if Calvillo is motivated, she should win this.
Prediction: Calvillo via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Nunes via Decision
GABRIEL BENITEZ VS CHARLIE ONTIVEROS
It is safe to say Gabriel Benitez (22-10) has not lived up to his potential losing four of his last five fights. That said, they were very tough matchups. He got TKO’d by Sodiq Yusuff (2019) before losing a unanimous decision to Omar Morales (2020). He bounced back in vintage fashion with a TKO over Justin Jaynes (2020) sparked by a beautiful knee to the body. However, Billy Quarantillo (2021) and David Onama (2022) gave him a taste of his own medicine with knockouts back down at featherweight.
Charlie Ontiveros (11-8) is his lifeline. He has an unflattering record and has been knocked out in both of this UFC fights. He arrived to the UFC off the back off two brilliant first-round knockouts of his own over Derrick Ageday and Washington Luiz for Fury FC in 2019. However, he fully experienced the step-up in competition meeting Kevin Holland (2020) for his debut and then Steve Garcia a year later.
PREDICTION
When Benitez is on, he looks like an absolute weapon with some of the most powerful leg kicks in the game combined with a violent diversity of attacks. Considering his form, there will be question marks over his confidence and this matchmaking is not as straightforward as it seems.
He is fully expected to win as Ontiveros has been knocked out a staggering eight times and Benitez has the power to put virtually any lightweight away. However, despite dehydrating the brain with his weight cuts and having no chin, he can crack and will boast a seven-inch reach and six-inch height advantage towering over Benitez.
If the Mexican is overzealous, he can easily get clipped and his chin is not exactly fresh with three knockout losses in the last three years. That said, Benitez is too good to lose this. His striking is on another level and we expect him to chop Ontiveros down with legs kicks and viciously attack the body before setting up the knockout.
Prediction: Benitez via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JASON WITT VS JOSH QUINLAN
Jason Witt (19-8) has had a rocky time in the UFC so far. He is 2-3 getting knocked out in all his losses although he has an impressive unanimous decision win over Bryan Barberena (2021). He got knocked out by Takashi Sato (2020) on debut, responded with a submission over Cole Williams, but then got starched in 16 seconds by Matt Semelsberger (2021). He then put on that ‘Fight of the Night’ with Barberena but Philip Rowe dished out another pounding back in February.
He welcomes Josh Quinlan (5-0(1)) to the UFC who was ready for his debut last week at UFC Vegas 59 with a dodgy drugs test postponing his entrance. After three amateur knockouts, Quinlan proceeded to finish his first five pro fights including knockouts over Peter Keepers (2020), Joe Boerschig (2021) and Dallas Jennings (2021) all under LFA banner. He then got a shot on the Contender series and impressed Dana by steamrolling Logan Urban (2021) in the first round. However, he popped hot and has only just become eligible to fight after his ban.
PREDICTION
It seems Witt’s chin is being fed to a prospect here. Six knockout losses in the books is a worry for any UFC fighter let alone a hungry up and comer who has finished all of his fights.
Quinlan is a beast with devastating hands and will boast a slight height and reach advantage. He is also a good grappler, but he will be looking for one touch of leather to head back home with his pay check.
Witt is a quality wrestler and he knows he has to close the distance at all costs. If he does manage to close the distance, Quinlan has the takedown defence and strength and to make it difficult for him. However, even if Witt succeeds with the takedown, Quinlan will have plenty of opportunities to land that one punch.
Prediction: Quinlan via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
YOUSSEF ZALAL VS DA’MON BLACKSHEAR
Youssef Zalal (10-5) jumped into prospect status after winning his first three UFC fights via unanimous decision. However, he is now on a three-fight skid and fighting to save his UFC career. He outpointed Austin Lingo (2020), Jordan Griffin (2020) and Peter Barrett (2020) but fell on the wrong side of unanimous decisions to Ilia Topuria (2020) and Seung Woo Choi (2021) before dropping a closer split decision to Sean Woodson in June last year.
He was scheduled to welcome Cristian Quinonez to the octagon but visa issues have gifted Da’Mon Blackshear (12-4) the opportunity to make his debut instead. He is coming in hot with four straight wins. He submitted Joseph Penafiel (2021) for CES MMA and then outpointed Mateo Vogel (2021) for the Cage Fighting Championships. That set up a title fight against Deandre Anderson (2021) claiming the strap with a rear naked choke and defended it with another choke over Josh Smith back in May.
PREDICTION
Blackshear has all of the momentum although he has only had 10 days to prepare. Zalal also makes his debut down at bantamweight but they size up very similarly. Blackshear is the one with nothing to lose whereas Zalal’s UFC career will be hanging by a thread with another loss.
So, Blackshear needs to capitalize on any hesitancy from Zalal. He needs to close the distance and force the pressure with clinch work and output in the pocket and drag the fight to the floor if the opportunity presents itself.
Zalal has great distance control and will understandably be cautious by constantly moving to stay out of trouble. He also has solid wrestling, so on paper he should take this all day. He has the skill, the tools and a full training camp behind him.
There is value on Blackshear especially if he is aggressive. We expect this to be competitive with Zalal doing enough to earn the decision.