UFC 277 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 277? Sunday 30th July, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 277? American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 277? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 277
What channel is UFC 277 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 277? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JULIANNA PENA VS AMANDA NUNES
The new bantamweight champion, Julianna Pena (11-4) achieved arguably the biggest shock in MMA history back in December last year. She has always been inactive since her debut with serious injuries and pregnancy. She was also 2-2 in her last four which included getting submitted by the striker Germaine de Randamie. However, she put her hand up after submitting Sara McMann with hardly anyone giving her a chance at the female ‘GOAT’. She went on stun Nunes on the feet and did not stop the pressure eventually dragging her down to the canvas and submitting a fatigued lioness ending her five-year reign.
Life was getting too easy for Amanda Nunes (21-5) at the top with no one offering much of a threat since Valentina Shevchenko. She was riding a 12-fight win streak which included five bantamweight and two featherweight title defences. It is fair to say she took Pena too lightly and she lost her head once she got rocked. She has been champing at the bit to get back in the cage while they have been coaching on The Ultimate Fighter and now the day is finally come to Dallas, Texas.
PREDICTION
Nunes’ ego lost her that fight. Once she got rocked, she could not accept losing a striking contest and continued to slug it out while clearly dazed allowing Pena to land more clean blows draining the energy bar before squeezing the rear naked choke on the ground.
Nunes ended up eating 90 significant strikes from Pena - 69 of them to the dome. Not what she was expecting. The first round did go as planned, with her power buckling Pena early, landing a clean leg kick and leveraging her power to secure a takedown.
She needs to do exactly the same this time around but be more patient and respect the hands of Pena. Well, enough to try defend them anyway, in particular her jab. She is still levels above Pena on the feet and she can piece her legs up at will.
We expect a slower start from Nunes focusing on her leg kicks. She can chop her down and still mix in the takedown. Pena’s strengths clearly lie in her grappling, but a fresh and undamaged Nunes will be a different beast.
Nunes is clearly desperate to get her hands on Pena and add in the fact that her golden legacy is on the line which will pile on the pressure and make it harder to pace herself. That said, we fully expect her to overwhelm the new champion on the feet and leverage her power to nullify her grappling while enjoying some control time herself.
Prediction: Nunes via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
BRANDON MORENO VS KAI KARA-FRANCE
Brandon Moreno (19-6-2) is still right in the title mix after the UFC decided to put an interim title on the line as Deiveson Figueiredo sits out on the sidelines with injury. A frustrating decision, especially in the eyes of the Brazilian who came out triumphant in their trilogy fight. Moreno first challenged in 2020 fighting to a draw and then six months later, he put on his best performance eventually cinching up a submission in the third round to claim the belt. Figueiredo got revenge back in January this year earning a unanimous decision, but it was so closely fought and competitive, the UFC have not ruled out a quadrilogy.
Kai Kara-France (24-9(1)) is the other beneficiary of the UFC’s decision and it is hard to argue he does not deserve a shot at gold albeit a rather meaningless interim gold. He also gets a chance to avenge his loss to Moreno which was back in 2019. He lost a unanimous decision to end his impressive eight-fight win streak. He suffered another setback when he got submitted by Brandon Royval (2020) in an epic scrap after he outpointed Tyson Nam (2020). However, he has rocketed into the form of his life knocking out Rogerio Bontorin (2020), former bantamweight champ Cody Garbrandt (2021) and then handing Askar Askarov his first ever loss in a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Their first fight was an exhilarating battle and we expect this to be no different. Kara-France won the first round, but Moreno displayed that bottomless gas tank to finish stronger. It was three rounds of striking and although we expect the majority of this fight to follow suit, Moreno’s grappling can change the course of the fight and he would be foolish not to use it here.
Although Kara-France has never gone past the third round, he has great cardio. Whether he can keep up with Moreno is a different story and if this goes into the championship rounds, you have to back him. The Kiwi will be very dangerous for three rounds at least with leg kicks and counters, but Moreno has never been finished and has a granite chin.
We can see Moreno trying to get the fight to the floor after the second round. If he succeeds, he will rabidly hunt the submission. Kara-France is not on his level in the grappling realm, but he has exceptional takedown and submission defence. He defended 12 out of 14 takedowns against Askarov who is a Deaflympic gold medallist in freestyle wrestling.
We expect this to be a back-and-forth battle taking everything they have to offer for three rounds at least. So, this is likely to be decided in the championship rounds where Moreno has the endurance, durability and experience to come out on top.
Prediction: Moreno via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Moreno via Submission
DERRICK LEWIS VS SERGEI PAVLOVICH
Derrick Lewis (26-9(1)) heads out for his 25th UFC fight and his fifth UFC appearance in his adopted home state of Texas. He has lost his last two on home soil which was gutting for ‘The Black Beast’. He was coming off one of his best runs in earning decisions over Blagoy Ivanov (2019), Ilir Latifi (2020) and then knocking out Alexey Oleynik (2020) and Curtis Blaydes (2021). However, he came back home to welcome Cyril Gane (2021) who simply had too much class eventually putting him out of his misery with a TKO in the third round. He bounced back with a vintage knockout over Chris Daukaus (2021) but is coming off another humbling knockout courtesy of Tai Tuivasa’s elbow back in February.
Sergei Pavlovich (15-1) has only been humbled once in his professional career. That came on his UFC debut when Alistair Overeem (2018) displayed all his experience with a violent and calculated finish on the ground. However, despite only fighting three times since, Pavlovich has got straight back to old habits with three ruthless first-round knockouts – Marcelo Golm (2019), Maurice Greene (2019) and then Shamil Abdurakhimov (2022).
PREDICTION
Lewis is not going to expose the holes in Pavlovich’s grappling like Overeem did, but he still presents a much tougher challenge than the Russian’s previous three opponents. Lewis’ simply experience does not compare and on paper it makes little sense for Pavlovich to be the favourite.
That said, the Russian has the power, speed and reach to crumble any heavyweight. If an unmotivated Lewis turns up, we can easily see him getting caught and shelling up allowing Pavlovich to empty the tank in search of a finish.
However, he has eaten 4.45 shots a minute in the UFC, something he cannot afford to do against Lewis. Pavlovich will be extremely dangerous in the first round, but Lewis’ lack of output will help if this goes past five minutes and only needs one clean strike to cause the upset.
Prediction: Lewis via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Lewis via KO/TKO
ALEXANDRE PANTOJA VS ALEX PEREZ
Alexandre Pantoja (24-5) still has not given up hopes of a title challenge and he certainly has the talent to get there. He has just stumbled against the elite. After three solid wins, the former champion Deieveson Figueiredo (2019) inflicted his second UFC loss with a unanimous decision. He bounced back by smoking Matt Schnell (2019) with a sweet overhand right, but then got outpointed again, this time by Askar Askarov (2020). However, he is back on the march with a unanimous decision over Manel Kape (2021) and a submission over Brandon Royval (2021) picking up another ‘Performance of the Night’.
Alex Perez (24-6) unexpectedly got his title shot back in 2020 when Cody Garbrandt dropped out with injury. It was even surprising at the time that he got the nod instead of his original opponent Brandon Moreno. He ended up getting absolutely schooled by the Brazilian eventually falling into to his guillotine. Since then, he has had six fights fall through for various reasons – four with Schnell and two with Askarov. Fingers crossed he makes it to the octagon this time.
PREDICTION
Perez is a very talented fighter. He is rapid with decent striking and excellent jiu-jitsu, but this is a very tough match-up for him. He missed weight in his last fight, has not fought in nearly two years and is taking on an even more established contender than Schnell and Askarov.
Pantoja has not fought this year, but he got two fights in since Perez last fought which were two very impressive wins. He has all of the skills in the book and should have the edge on the feet as the more technical striker.
That said, if Perez’s training camp has gone smoother, finds a home for his leg kicks and mixes in his wrestling he can cause the upset. Pantoja’s jiu-jitsu can prevent the submission, but a Perez decision is a smart bet.
Prediction: Pantoja via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Perez via Decision
ANTHONY SMITH VS MAGOMED ANKALAEV
Anthony Smith (36-16) has found a spark again or more importantly, some consistency. On his day, he troubles anyone, but has nights where he just does not show up. Glover Teixeira (2020) put a five-round beating on him ending his fate with a TKO. He then dropped out a limp decision to Aleksandar Rakic (2020), but he has since submitted Devin Clark (2020), disabled Jimmy Crute (2021) and is coming off a ruthless first-round submission over Ryan Spann (2021).
Magomed Ankalaev (17-1) has been the picture of consistency on the other hand. We have only seen a 10 second blip from him which came right at the end of his fight with Paul Craig (2018) getting caught in his triangle. That was his debut and has since racked up eight impressive wins and coming off three classy unanimous decisions over Nikita Krylov (2021), Volkan Oezdemir (2021) and Thiago Santos (2022)
PREDICTION
This is the perfect way to kick off the main card. Ankalaev looks destined for a title shot and if he gets past Smith it will be hard to argue he does not deserve a tantalizing shot a Jiri Prochaza. His striking is clearly at an elite level, but he does not have the experience of Smith.
Smith has the nous to be competitive on the feet, but his only real advantage here is his jiu-jitsu. If this stays on the feet, it will be an exciting battle, but you have to back the Russian who operates on a different frequency with his timing and movement, switching stances, setting traps and dictating the range.
He has barely called upon his wrestling so far in the UFC, but it is also good enough to expose Smith’s takedown defence. We can see him winning the striking exchanges and taking Smith down landing in top position. If that is how the fight plays out, an Ankalaev decision or knockout is most likely and considering the odds, a Smith submission is worth a small punt.
Prediction: Ankalaev via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Smith via Submission
ALEX MORONO VS MATT SEMELSBERGER
Alex Morono (21-7(1)) is riding a three-fight win streak 15 fights deep into his UFC tenure. He was coming off a unanimous decision loss to Anthony Pettis (2020) before kicking off the streak with the biggest win of his career. He capitalized on a checked-out Donald Cerrone (2021) TKOing him in the first round. He has since followed that up with unanimous decisions over David Zawada and Mickey Gall the same year.
Matt Semelsberger (10-3) walks out for his sixth UFC fight at 29 years old. We are not sure how high his ceiling is, but he certainly brings the entertainment. After starching Jason Witt (2021) 16 seconds into the fight, he ran into Khaos Williams (2021) losing a unanimous decision. He then took just 15 seconds to fold Martin Sano Jr (2021) who had no right to be on the UFC 266 card and he followed that up with a brilliant unanimous decision win over AJ Fletcher back in March.
PREDICTION
Both these guys have very heavy hands and we expect a lot of leather to be exchanged here. Morono is extremely well-rounded with a black belt in taekwondo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu with a lot more experience than Semelsberger.
However, Morono rarely calls upon his grappling and Semelsberger is the bigger man and hits like a truck. He will also have a three-inch reach advantage and you can expect him to utilize it by maintaining the distance and picking Morono apart from range setting up his power right hand.
Morono is durable, but there will only be so many clean blows he can absorb. If he enforces his will to dictate where the fight goes and tries to get the fight to the floor, we would back him. However, we expect him to stand and trade which will play right into Semelsberger’s hands.
Prediction: Semelsberger via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Morono to win
DREW DOBER VS RAFAEL ALVES
Drew Dober (24-11(1)) became the talk of the lightweight division back in 2019 which is a feat in itself. He was coming off three blistering knockouts adding Polo Reyes (2019), Nasrat Haqparast (2020) and Alexander Hernandez (2020) to the dub sheet. However, the MMA gods wanted that streak to end as Islam Makhachev (2021) was lined up for his next fight and he sliced through him like butter wrapping him up in an arm triangle in the second round. He then fought to a very close decision with Brad Riddell (2021) but failed to convince any of the judges. He has bounced back with another knockout, but it was not easy, almost getting finished himself by Terrance McKinney before rallying back in an epic comeback.
Rafael Alves (20-10) provides another mouth-watering match-up for the veteran. The Brazilian hunts a finish in any fashion. He got the call-up from the UFC after five straight wins which included a submission over Alejandro Flores Garcia (2020) on the Contender Series. He was given a very unkind debut in the form of Damir Ismagulov (2021) who was riding a 17-fight win streak at the time. He inevitably lost a unanimous decision but responded with the biggest win of his career submitting Marc Diakiese (2021) at UFC Fight 197.
PREDICTION
This should be fireworks which may or may not fill Dober with excitement after his last fight. Dober is at the top of the food chain when it comes to striking with a wealth of experience against the upper echelon. Where he has struggled is in the grappling department with just a 53% takedown defence.
Alves has the potential to expose those holes or play right into Dober’s hands slugging it out on the feet. The Brazilian hunts the finish from the bell on the feet and on the ground, but if he has any sense, he has to call upon his jiu-jitsu here.
If he can get the takedown, Dober is in trouble, but if he trades on the feet, he may find himself struggling to chip away at Dober’s granite chin while getting viciously countered. We can see the Brazilian landing a takedown in a brawl creating opportunities for a submission, but if this goes past the first round, you have to back Dober.
We are backing the UFC veteran to weather the early storm, but Alves holds all of the value as the underdog.
Prediction: Dober via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Alves via Submission
DON’TALE MAYES VS HAMDY ABDELWAHAB
Don’Tale Mayes (9-4) was preparing for Justin Tafa who had to pull out, but fortunately he is still on the Dallas card. The start to his UFC career could not have gone much worse getting submitted by Ciryl Gane (2019) on debut and then Rodrigo Nascimento (2020) seven months later. He has only fought twice since, but importantly for his future, they were both wins. He outpointed Roque Martinez in November 2020 and then a year later TKO’d Josh Parisian with the help of his cup.
Tafa’s loss is Hamdy Abdelwahab’s (5-0) gain. The Egyptian makes his debut just five fights into his MMA career. Many believe he is ready for the big leagues as a former Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler. He made his pro debut in 2021 and has dusted off all of his opponents relying more on his concrete hands rather than his wrestling.
PREDICTION
Abdelwahab also has a couple Bare Knuckle Boxing knockouts and it is safe to say he will unleash his hands again at some point here. It would be nice to see his wrestling and it would be smart considering Mayes is a striker by trade.
If Abdelwahab decides to wrestle, Mayes could be going for a ride, but if he decides to stand and bang, someone is likely to go to sleep and that is more likely to be Abdelwahab with his lack of defence.
Mayes is the favourite considering his experience and the Egyptian’s preferred strategies. We are backing the American as well, but we would not be surprised if Abdelwahab causes the upset.
Prediction: Mayes via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Abdelwahab to win
DRAKKAR KLOSE VS RAFA GARCIA
We finally saw Drakkar Klose (12-2-1) back in action in April after being out for over two years. That was partly due to Jeremy Stephens shoving him at their weigh-ins a year prior causing a back injury. He eventually returned to take on Nikolas Motta who ended up getting replaced by Brandon Jenkins. Nonetheless, Klose made up for lost time by knocking him out in the second round to earn a ‘Performance of the Night’ bonus.
Rafa Garcia (14-2) has been more active making his debut in 2021 and has already got four fights under the belt. The year did not start well for him losing his first two UFC fights. Nasrat Haqparast inflicted his first pro loss with a unanimous decision and Chris Gruetzemacher made it two on the spin four months later. However, he is back on track with a unanimous decision win of his own over Natan Levy (2021) and a submission over Jesse Ronson (2022) which was on the same card as Klose’s win over Jenkins.
PREDICTION
Klose was preparing for Carlos Diego Ferreira, so he has an easier match up here, but it is still a tough one. Garcia is a dangerous fighter, especially in the first round. Expect him to start quick firing off leg kicks and waiting to counter with his heavy hands waiting for any opportunity to get the fight to the floor.
Klose will be prepared for this and will try to weather the first round. He has better cardio, boxing and has the wrestling to stuff Garcia’s takedown attempts and frustrate him as the fight goes on.
Garcia is a wildcard and there is always value in him when he is an underdog, but we are behind Klose in this one.
Prediction: Klose via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Garcia to win
ORION COSCE VS MIKE MATHETHA LOWDOWN
Third time lucky for this pairing. Orion Cosce (7-1) pulled out of their first scheduling at UFC 271 in February and watched Jeremiah Wells step in to pick up the win. Now, Cosce is hungry to get in that octagon and inflict similar pain and make up for his debut. He met Philip Rowe in July last year while proudly sitting on an unbeaten record. However, he was TKO’d in the second round and is now desperate to prove his worth.
Mike ‘Blood Diamond’ Mathetha (3-1) pulled out of their second scheduling with an injury at UFC 275 leaving Cosce without an opponent missing out on the chance to make up for his debut. It turned out to be a baptism of fire for a UFC debut let alone his fourth MMA fight as Wells is a dangerous individual. Now, Mathetha hopes to show his potential with his kickboxing prowess.
ORION COSCE VS MIKE MATHETHA PREDICTION
Mathetha is a brilliant striker with slick kickboxing and Muay Thai dangerous with all eight limbs. Cosce is no slouch on the feet, but Blood Diamond will have a clear advantage especially with a five-inch reach advantage.
So, the longer this stays on the feet, the more you have to back the striker. However, if Cosce is smart, he will call upon his grappling. He is a strong wrestler with underrated jiu-jitsu and it is a clear path to victory against Mathetha.
As Blood Diamond is the underdog, he is the smart bet and may even find a knockout, but if Cosce brings his wrestling boots, we expect him to grind out a decision or submission.
Prediction: Cosce via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Mathetha to win