UFC Fight Night 208 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC London? Sunday 23rd July, 2022 - 18:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC London? The O2 Arena, London (UK)
Where can I get tickets for UFC London? Click here to buy tickets for UFC London
What channel is UFC London on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC London? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CURTIS BLAYDES VS TOM ASPINALL
Curtis Blaydes (16-3(1)) is still on his quest for a first shot at gold. He is doing everything right, just falling at the final hurdle and those hurdles have been two of the deadliest knockout artists in combat sport. Ngannou switched the lights off in 2016 and again in 2018. After that, he put his best ever run together outpointing Justin Willis (2019), knocking out Shamil Abdurakhimov (2019) and Junior dos Santos (2020) before outpointing Alexander Volkov (2020). However, he then ran into Derrick Lewis’ (2021) uppercut to suffer his third knockout loss. As you would expect, he has rallied since outpointing Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2021) and TKO’d Chris Daukaus (2020) to set up a potential number one contender clash.
This is the biggest test of Tom Aspinall’s (12-2) career. The Brit has not put a foot wrong since joining the UFC and has looked in a league of his own earning four ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses out of his five UFC fights. He knocked out Jake Collier (2020) and Alan Baudot (2020) before submitting Andrei Arlovski (2021) and notched up his ninth knockout when he met Sergey Spivak (2021). That set up his first headliner against Volkov back in March and rose to the occasion with panache submitting the Russian in the first round.
PREDICTION
It is no secret that Blaydes’ wrestling will be the key here and it is his improved striking that will be able to unlock Aspinall’s takedown defence. In his fight with Lewis, he was expected to get the fight to the ground as soon as possible however, he stood for the first round and was even getting the better of the knockout king. It was when he shot in for a predictable takedown, he got flatlined.
Aspinall does not possess the same knockout power, but his speed will make up for it. He has the speed of a middleweight, effortlessly stringing combinations together while backing his movement to stay out of danger, so Blaydes needs to respect his hands in the same way.
Aspinall is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has efficient offensive wrestling, but his defence has barely been tested and he cannot afford to let Blaydes get on top of him with some of the most devastating ground-and-pound in the game. The Brit will be aware of this, so Blaydes needs to be very deliberate with his set-ups.
The American will no doubt respect his striking and jiu-jitsu, but Aspinall has to respect the striking and cardio of Blaydes. Aspinall is on a different level on the feet, but so was dos Santos who underestimated him and got caught clean. The Brit also has to be prepared 25 minutes of grappling. He is an athlete, but he has never gone past the second round whereas Blaydes is built for long-term suffocation.
A number of outcomes are possible here. We can see Aspinall finding an early or late knockout/submission sparked by rocking Blaydes with his speed. We can also see Blaydes weather the early storm to grind out a decision with his wrestling or even find a TKO himself with ground-and-pound.
That said, Aspinall continues to improve drastically and will have the familiarity of headlining a London card with he whole of the O2 Arena behind him. We expect Blaydes to grab a hold of him at some point, but we are backing Aspinall to create enough space to overwhelm Blaydes with his speed, breaking him down and finding his damaged chin with a flurry of combos.
Prediction: Aspinall via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Blaydes to win
JACK HERMANSSON VS CHRIS CURTIS
Jack Hermansson (22-7) misses out on a huge fight after the nation’s favourite – Darren Till had to drop out through injury. He will be grateful he is still on the card as he just wants to get back in the win column. After a brilliant four-fight win streak to put his name on the map he has struggled against the elite losing three of his last five. He got TKO’d by Jared Cannonier (2019) before submitting Kelvin Gastelum (2020). He then got ground out in a decision to Marvin Vettori (2020), responded with a unanimous decision of his own against Edmen Shahbazyan (2021) but is coming off another loss, this time a split decision to Sean Strickland which was back in February.
Who else but Chris Curtis (29-8). The UFC must love him stepping in as a replacement for the third time for his fourth UFC fight not to mention he is winning in exciting fashion. He caused the huge upset on debut knocking out Phil Hawes in the first round and followed that up with another over Brendan Allen only a month later. He then got some time to prepare for Rodolfo Vieira meeting him last month and shut the jiu-jitsu wizard down earning a classy unanimous decision.
JPREDICTION
This is a tough fight for Hermansson as Curtis has nothing to lose, is full to the brim with confidence and has legitimate knockout power.
Hermansson has the height and reach advantage and is a very effective striker with his unorthodox movement, but it will be risky to trade on the feet. His clear advantage lies in the grappling department and a finish will be just around the corner if he can get the fight to the floor.
Hermansson’s top game is one of the best in the division with ferocious ground-and-pound and slick jiu-jitsu. That said, Vieira has some of the best jiu-jitsu on the entire roster, however he failed to take Curtis down in 20 attempts. Curtis has excellent takedown defence and if he has the same success in London, we would back him to find the knockout.
The key for Hermansson is to create chaos and scrambles to pounce on a takedown, but that will also create opportunities for Curtis to find the chin. This will be a very intriguing contest and as the odds suggest, very tough to call.
Hermansson can win this in a variety of ways, but if he cannot secure the takedown, Curtis is the good shout for a knockout.
Prediction: Hermansson via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Curtis via KO/TKO
PADDY PIMBLETT VS JORDAN LEAVITT
Paddy Pimblett (18-3) is becoming a superstar with his recent performances matching his charisma. They have not been flawless, with Luigi Vendramini welcoming him to the octagon last September with some heavy shots as we expected, but Pimblett rallied to secure a knockout of his own late in the first round. He returned in March this year to take on Rodrigo Vargas and secured a vintage rear-naked choke, again before the first bell rung.
Jordan Leavitt (10-1) is his next assignment who has bounced back well from his first professional loss. After his frightening slam on Matt Wiman (2020) to kick off his UFC career, he dropped a unanimous decision to Claudio Puelles (2021). He replied with a brilliant inverted triangle choke on Matt Sayles (2021) and followed that up with a split decision over Trey Ogden back in April.
PREDICTION
This is a good match-up. Leavitt has a lot of potential and is also a grappler by trade but goes about business in a different way. He is a lot more measured with a wrestling base and that will be key in trying to control the fight.
However, Pimblett is extremely hard to control with his aggression and unpredictability. That extends from the ground to the feet from kicks from range to combinations in the pocket ready to pounce on a takedown for a submission.
Pimblett is a showman and will buzzing off his rocker with a deafening crowd behind him. Leavitt will have to expect a rabid start from the scouser and he has the temperament to keep his cool and stick to a game plan.
He will be giving up some size and speed, but he is a brilliant wrestler. The question is whether he can keep Pimblett pinned to the ground. This is his route to victory, fending off Pimblett’s submission attempts while draining his energy.
The only way we can see Leavitt winning is if he weathers the early storm and wrestles Pimblett for a round or two to empty the gas tank and set up a late submission or decision. However, Pimblett’s power and offensive jiu-jitsu should create enough space to prevent him from getting subdued.
Pimblett is the hefty favourite and we expect his energy and strikes from range to overwhelm Leavitt to set up a finish, but unless the Liverpudlian paces himself, he could be in for a humbling night on the canvas.
Prediction: Pimblett via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Leavitt to win
NIKITA KRYLOV VS ALEXANDER GUSTAFSSON
Nikita Krylov (27-9) has had a tough ride during his second stint in the UFC. He is 2-4 after being lined up with beast after beast. He got submitted by former champ Jan Blachowicz (2018) on his return and responded with a revenge submission over Ovince Saint Preux (2019) in their rematch. He then met another former champ in the shape of Glover Teixeira (2019) and did well to take him to a split decision but only managed to convince one judge. He bounced back again with a unanimous decision over Johnny Walker (2020) but is now on a two-fight skid getting outpointed by Magomed Ankalaev (2021) and submitted by Paul craig back in March.
Alexander Gustafsson (18-7) is not used to being this low on a UFC card, especially one in Europe. That is because his winning feeling has become a distant memory. His last win was one of the most impressive performances of his career putting on an absolute beating on Teixeira (2017) closing the show with a beautiful uppercut combination. That also came after a unanimous decision over Blachowicz (2016) however, since then he has only fought three times. He got knocked out by Jon Jones (2018) in their rematch and then submitted by Anthony Smith (2019) which forced a decision to retire. A heavyweight challenge lured him out of retirement in 2020, but it was a bad idea getting submitted by Fabricio Werdum.
PREDICTION
It is great to see Gustafsson back and in his weight class. We hope he has found a spark to compete again as he was a fan favourite for a reason and he will need to be at the top of his game to get past the crafty veteran.
Krylov is solid everywhere and will only be giving up a couple inches in height and reach. He can hang with Gustafsson on the feet, but the smart strategy would be to close the distance and subdue him in the clinch, dragging him to the canvas. He is a very strong grappler and although only one of his wins have gone to a decision, he can grind out three rounds.
If 80% of the Gustafsson that slaughtered Teixeira turns up in London, he can run through Krylov on the feet, defending the takedown and dismantling him from range. Unfortunately, we have not seen 20% of that Gustafsson since.
A Krylov decision or submission makes the most sense, but if a rejuvenated Swede rocks up to London, he will upset the odds.
Prediction: Krylov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Gustafsson to win
MOLLY MCCANN VS HANNAH GOLDY
Molly McCann (12-4) is coming off one of the most spectacular finishes in women’s MMA history and is lapping up every second. She met the rangy striker Luana Carolina in London back in March and it was a competitive scrap until McCann uncorked an unholy spinning back elbow to flatline the Brazilian. The epic knockout followed a unanimous decision win over Yeon Kim (2021) to bounce back from unanimous decision losses to Taila Santos (2020) and Lara Procopio (2021).
Hannah Goldy (6-2) has been lined up for her return on home soil and she is also coming off a ruthless finish. After losing her first two UFC fights via unanimous decision to Miranda Granger (2019) and Diana Belbita (2021), she decided to hold on to a few pounds and move back up to flyweight. It paid dividends cinching Emily Whitmire up in an armbar back in September last year.
PREDICTION
Goldy will not have experienced something like the O2 Arena before. The crowd will be raucous which will be matched by McCann’s energy. She will bring a furious pace from the bell and will look to overwhelm Goldy on the feet.
Goldy is a powerhouse and will try and spoil the party by making this boring and getting MCann on her and keeping her there. She has the ability to as a strong grappler, but we expect McCann’s power and takedown defence to keep the fight on the feet long enough to drown Goldy with her boxing.
Prediction: McCann via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
PAUL CRAIG VS VOLKAN OEZDEMIR
Not many people touted Paul Craig (16-4-1) as a future title contender and many still do not, however, he is unbeaten in his last six and just racked up his seventh ‘Performance of the Night’. Since getting buried by Alonzo Menifield (2019), he has finished Vinicius Moreira (2019 – submission), Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2020 – submission), Shogun Rua (2020 -TKO) after their draw in 2019, Jamahal Hill (2021 – TKO) and most recently Nikita Krylov (2022 – submission).
Fellow finisher Volkan Oezdemir (17-6) is in contrasting form enduring another slump. He has lost five of his last seven now although they were to some of the very best light heavyweights at the time. Daniel Cormier (2018 – TKO), Anthony Smith (2018 - submission) and Dominick Reyes (2019 - split decision) dunked him dark waters. He bounced back with a vintage knockout over Ilir Latifi (2019) and then a split decision over Aleksandar Rakic (2019) however, he is now coming off a walloping from Jiri Prochazka (2020) and a unanimous decision loss to Ankalaev (2021).
PREDICTION
This is another pairing for Craig where he seemingly seems completely outmatched on the feet and will be seeking one opening to find a submission which he has become an expert in.
The aura of Oezdemir has diluted after his rise to a title shot, but he still has that devastating knockout power. He is particularly dangerous at close range which is where Craig needs to be to find an opportunity for a submission.
The obvious outcomes here is an Oezdemir knockout or a Craig submission. The Scot seems to have a knack of forcing his opponents to make a mistake, so Oezdemir needs to keep the distance at all costs and be ready to uncork his dynamite short punches when Craig enters the pocket looking for a takedown.
Oezdemir has excellent takedown defence and we have a feeling he will defend a few before displaying his superiority on the feet. Craig holds all the value as the underdog especially if the fight descends into chaos.
Prediction: Oezdemir via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Craig via Submission
NATHANIEL WOOD VS CHARLES ROSA
We are praying Nathaniel Wood (17-5) keeps his dance partner at the O2 arena this time. He was expected to grace the London card last year, but Luidvik Sholinian dropped out followed by Vince Morales who fell ill just before the fight. Heart wrenching for Wood who has not fought since October 2020 when he lost a unanimous decision to the talented Casey Kenney. That made it 1-2 in his last three after his TKO loss to John Dodson and unanimous decision win over John Castaneda the same year. Now, he has been forced up to featherweight after struggling to get any fights at 135 lbs.
Charles Rosa (14-7) has been lined up for the Londoners return. The veteran is 5-7 in the UFC now but has amassed some priceless experience at featherweight and lightweight. His last win was a split decision over Justin Jaynes (2021), but he is coming off two straight losses for the first time in his career. He dropped unanimous decisions to fellow veteran and grappler Damon Jackson (2021) and TJ Brown back in January.
PREDICTION
Wood continues to improve despite the recent form and he has had a lot of time to tune up for this fight. Rosa is the bigger man, but they have the same reach and Wood will not be undersized for the division.
Wood has very slick jiu-jitsu although he will want to keep the fight on the feet as Rosa is a persistent wrestler with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. The Londoner is the better striker and will have a crucial speed advantage. So, expect Rosa to feel Wood out on the feet but when he starts to eat some thunderous leg kicks, he will shoot in for a takedown.
Here, he will struggle to take Wood down who has the technique and explosiveness to defend the majority of takedowns. The more space he can create, the easier he will make this look offloading his relentless output with a variety of strikes to wear Rosa down and convince all three judges.
Prediction: Wood via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MAKWAN AMIRKHANI VS JONATHAN PEARCE
Makwan Amirkhani (17-7) is coming off one of the most impressive wins of his career. He was slipping on a three-fight skid going into the fight after losing unanimous decisions to Edson Barboza (2020), Kamuela Kirk (2021) and swallowing a hellacious knee from Lerone Murphy (2021) to suffer the second knockout of his career. He was then matched with an elite wrestler in Mike Grundy back in March and took less than a minute to wrap him up in his Anaconda choke bagging a ‘Performance of the Night’ bonus in the process.
He has now been paired up with Jonathan Pearce (12-4) who is in the form of his life. His only loss in his last in his last nine was that shock knockout to Joe Lauzon (2019) on his UFC debut. Since then, he has knocked out Kai Kamaka (2020), submitted Omar Morales (2021) and most recently outpointed Christian Rodriguez back in March.
PREDICTION
We can see this going a similar way to the Grundy fight. Amirkhani loves to burst out the gate to unsettle his opponents. He is quick and aggressive, but he will have to pace himself against Pearce.
The American is solid, well-rounded and if he gets out the first round unscathed, he has the wrestling to grind out a decision. His wrestling will be key, but on the other hand, look what happened to Grundy.
There will be a lot of opportunities for Amirkhani to pounce on a choke. He will try and latch onto Pearce as soon as possible to wrap up a body lock and work on a submission and we are backing him to find one.
The most likely outcomes here are a Pearce decision or Amirkhani submission and as Mr Finland is the underdog, he represents all of the value.
Prediction: Amirkhani via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Amirkhani via Submission
MUHAMMAD MOKAEV VS CHARLES JOHNSON
One of the brightest prospects coming out of the UK right now is Muhammad Mokaev (7-0(1)). He built his reputation at Brave CF and earnt the call-up to the big time after wrapping Blaine O’Driscoll (2021) up in a rear naked choke. Cody Durden welcomed him to the octagon back in March only to get submitted in the first round – a dream start for Mokaev who heads back to the O2 Arena to repeat that performance.
Now, it is his turn to welcome a newcomer to the UFC. Charles Johnson (11-2) is also coming in hot on a four-fight win streak that includes three finishes. After losing a decision to Brandon Royval (2018), he submitted Karlee Pangilinan (2021), earnt a split decision over Yuma Horiuchi (2021) and then went on to knock out Joao Antonio Camilo Neto (2021) and Carlos Mota (2022) all under the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) banner.
PREDICTION
The Mokaev hype is building fast especially after his UFC debut. However, this is a tough fight early in his career. Johnson in the former LFA champion with clear knockout power to match his technique on the feet.
For those reasons and the fact that Johnson is a huge underdog, he is worth a small punt. However, the hype on Mokaev is real.
He has a wealth of amateur experience and he only needs to take Johnson down once. He is a supreme wrestler and has the explosiveness to sweep Johnson off his feet early and may just inflict Johnson’s first submission loss.
Prediction: Mokaev via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Johnson to win
JAI HERBERT VS KYLE NELSON
A lot was expected from Jai Herbert (11-4) before joining the UFC sitting on a healthy record of 10-1. However, he has been fed to the wolves. He stepped in as a late replacement to fight Francisco Trinaldo (2020) and suffered a very late stoppage in the third round. He was then match with Renato Moicano (2021) and got submitted. After those finishes, the UFC did not let him off pairing him with knockout artist Khama Worthy (2021), but Herbert showed his worth knocking him out in the first round. However, top prospect Ilia Topuria (2022) was then lined up for him and landed a beautiful head kick but ended up getting knocked out again.
Kyle Nelson (13-4) has had four easier fights to kick off his UFC career but has suffered the same fortunes going 1-3. He also filled in as a late replacement to make his debut against an experienced monster getting TKO’d by Carlos Diego Ferreira (2018). Matt Sayles (2019) then submitted him and he bounced back with a first round knockout over Polo Reyes. Like, Herbert however, he is also coming off a brutal knockout which came courtesy of Billy Quarantillo (2020)
PREDICTION
Starts to a UFC career do not get much harder than Herbert’s and he will be grateful with this matchmaking. Nelson has had a very similar journey to UFC London, but he has been inactive only fighting once since 2019.
Nelson is a strong and well-rounded fighter, but unlike Herbert’s previous opponents, he is not an inflated lightweight veteran, submission artist, knockout artist or prodigy. He matches up very well stylistically for Herbert.
Nelson is aggressive and likes to walk his opponents down which will play into the hands of the ‘The Black Country Banger’. Herbert will boast a significant six-inch reach advantage and he will attack like a sniper. His technique is class leveraging his range brilliantly and his accuracy will enable him to find the chin from various angles.
As long as Herbert respects Nelson and protects his chin, he will be able to pick him apart with his technique and range, countering with laser-like precision to inflict the knockout.