UFC on ABC 3 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC on ABC 3? Sunday 17th July, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ABC 3? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ABC 3? Click here to buy tickets for UFC on ABC 3
What channel is UFC on ABC 3 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC ABC 3? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
BRIAN ORTEGA VS YAIR RODRIGUEZ
Brian Ortega (15-2(1)) returns after his epic scrap with the featherweight king Alexander Volkanovski. He lost a unanimous decision back in September last year which was the deserving ‘Fight of the Night’. Ortega gave the champ everything and even locked up a couple tight chokes but could not seal the deal. That came after his best performance to date finishing Chan Sung Jung (2020). It was not a vintage submission, but a unanimous decision where he went toe-to-toe with the Korean Zombie on the feet and frankly outclassed him which was surprising to see. That came after getting schooled by Max Holloway (2018) in his first title shot and now begins his third march.
Yair Rodriguez (13-3(1)) is still on his first quest for featherweight gold which was halted by Holloway (2021) in his last fight. His lack of activity also has not helped his progress. After his humbling loss to Frankie Edgar (2017), he has only fought four times. Nobody can forget his fight the following year with the Korean Zombie who was just about to cross the finishing line and earn a decision before Rodriguez popped off that mesmerizing elbow in the last second of the fifth round. He then outpointed Jeremy Stephens (2019) after their first fight never got going due to an eye poke. Two years went by after that win before we saw him again serving a ban for not making himself available for drug tests. He eventually met Holloway and put on a fight for the ages but fell short in a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
What a match-up this is. Ortega’s improvement in his striking makes this very interesting. Rodriguez is still a level above on the feet, but he will be giving up three inches in height and reach.
The division is littered with elite strikers and Rodriguez is one of the best, particularly with his kicks which will be crucial to keeping the distance. Ortega is lethal in the pocket with good boxing and dangerous elbows. Closing the distance also makes a takedown easier which willl drag the fight into his domain.
He has some of the best jiu-jitsu on the entire roster, and although we expect the majority of this fight to play out on the feet, Ortega will pounce on any opportunity to tangle with Rodriguez. Ortega will want to make this chaotic, exchanging a variety of strikes in the pocket hoping to land something clean or create a scramble to jump on a guillotine or triangle choke.
However, exchanging with Rodriguez is not smart unless you have the skill of the likes of Holloway. We expect Rodriguez to pepper Ortega from range with an array of kicks and switching his stance to fire off his jab and 1-2’s. He has great movement and will try frustrate Ortega to make him rush in to close the distance and walk on to a vicious counter.
As we know, Ortega is incredibly tough and only needs a split second to finish the fight, whether that be a choke or an elbow. He can only pull that off if he closes the distance and Rodriguez is masterful at maintaining it which swing this slightly in favour for us.
Over five rounds, we expect Ortega to land and there will be opportunities where Rodriguez will dangle his head out making him vulnerable to a guillotine. So, this is tough to call, but is destined to be another epic battle.
An Ortega submission is worth a punt, but if he remains the favourite, Rodriguez is the value bet.
Prediction: Rodriguez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rodriguez to win
MICHELLE WATERSON VS AMANDA LEMOS
Michelle Waterson (18-9) finally returns after more than a year out. Her last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Marina Rodriguez which was her first fight up at flyweight in the UFC. That made it three losses in her last four, but they were to former queen of the division Joanna Jedrzejczyk (2019), current champion Carla Esparza (2020) and a future contender in Rodriguez. Her win came in September 2020 which was a split decision over Angela Hill.
Amanda Lemos (11-2-1) has been a lot more active and fought three months ago. She won five straight fights which included knockouts over Livia Renata Souza and Montserrat Ruiz in 2021 and also a split decision over Hill. That led her into the path of the former champion Jessica Andrade for a number one contender spot on the line. However, it was a step too far and she got caught in a standing guillotine choke in the first round.
PREDICTION
It is great to see both of these ladies back. Lemos will be kicking herself about her performance against Andrade, but it will provide priceless experience for her. Waterson has been active, but she has that experience in the bank.
She will look to utilize her technique and speed to outland Lemos and win the fight with her volume. She has great kicks and is a demon on the mat, so she will be confident wherever the fight goes.
However, Lemos possesses rare skill for a strawweight. She is a beast with legitimate knockout power. She will be happy to walk through some of Waterson’s kicks to find a home for her heavy hands and leg kicks. She is also a lot stronger and will be able to fend off any takedowns and control Waterson in the clinch.
Although they are a similar age, Lemos is also still improving whereas Waterson has hit her ceiling. She is a huge underdog and it is hard to see how she wins this but she is still good enough to make this competitive until the bell.
Prediction: Lemos via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Waterson via Decision
LI JINGLIANG VS MUSLIM SALIKHOV
Li Jingliang (18-7) appears after that high profile dismantling from Khamzat Chimaev back in October last year. Jingliang provided him his first real test, but the star proceeded to throw him around the octagon and submit him in the first round. That was his second loss in his last three with the first coming in March 2020 losing a unanimous decision to Neil Magny. Sandwiched between however, was one of the best performances of his career knocking out the fearsome striker Santiago Ponzinibbio last year.
Muslim Salikhov (18-2) heads to New York for his annual appearance. It is a shame he has not been able to be more active inside the cage. After getting submitted on his debut back in 2017 by Alex Garcia, he has won all his bouts, but only fought five times. They include knockouts over Ricky Rainey (2018) and Nordine Taleb (2019) then decisions over Laureano Staropoli (2019), Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (2020) and Francisco Trinaldo (2021).
PREDICTION
Jingliang got completely out grappled in his last two losses so he will be very grateful he is fighting a striker. With knockouts over Zaleski dos Santos and Ponzinibbio, he will have all the confidence on the feet, but Salikhov is a different beast in the striking realm.
He is as seasoned as it gets with power to match his technique. He will look to chop Jingliang down with thunderous leg kicks and piercing side kicks to the body. He also has brilliant hands and we expect him to come out on top in the exchanges, but only if he respects Jingliang’s left hook.
If the Russian begins to hurt the Chinese native, Jingliang may look for the takedown, but Salikhov has very strong defence and we back him to keep this on the feet. So, on paper, Salikhov justifies being the favourite.
Prediction: Salikhov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MATT SCHNELL VS SU MUDAERJI
Matt Schnell’s (15-6(1)) UFC record dropped to 5-4(1) in his last fight. After Alexandre Pantoja (2019) snapped his four-fight win streak with a knockout, he responded with a split decision over Tyson Nam (2021). However, four months later he lost a unanimous decision to Rogerio Bontorin (overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to failed drugs test) and then got submitted by Brandon Royval back in May.
Su Mudaerji (16-4) is enjoying some better form as he rides a three-fight win streak. He got submitted on his UFC debut by Louis Smolka (2018), a month after getting submitted by Hao Bin Ma for the WLF promotion. However, he bounced back with a unanimous decision over Andre Soukhamthath (2019), a knockout over Malcolm Gordon (2020) and another unanimous decision over Zarrukh Adashev (2021).
PREDICTION
Mudaerji has looked great in his last three fights, but Soukhamthath and Adashev are not UFC calibre and he clearly has a weakness on the ground with all his losses coming via submission. Schnell has been submitted a couple times himself, but he has very good jiu-jitsu and that will be his obvious route to victory.
The fight will begin on the feet which we expect to be very competitive. Mudaerji is technically the better striker and will boast a slight reach advantage, but Schnell is rapid. He can cause problems on the feet, but his chin is a worry especially considering Mudaerji’s power.
The longer this stays on the feet, the more you have to back Mudaerji. However, if the fight goes to the ground, you have to back Schnell all day so it will depend on how the American approaches this. Considering the odds, Schnell is the smart pick and we can certainly see him getting a submission. That said, we are backing Mudaerji to find that comprised chin.
Prediction: Mudaerji via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Schnell via Submission
SHANE BURGOS VS CHARLES JOURDAIN
Shane Burgos (14-3) is coming off a much-needed win after losing two on the bounce running into two of the most devastating strikers in the division. They were both ‘Fight of the Night’s’ however Josh Emmett (2020) got the nod from all three judges in a bruising battle. He then received an absolute schooling from Edson Barboza (2021) who eventually closed the show with a clean swipe at the temple causing a delayed knockout. He returned six months later to earn a unanimous decision over Billy Quarantillo and now hopes to regain some more momentum.
Charles Jourdain (13-4-1) sets out to make sure that momentum is halted again. He is enjoying his first streak in the UFC after a shaky start to his tenure. He is coming off a unanimous decision over Andre Ewell (2021) and a super impressive submission over Lando Vannata back in April boosting his UFC record to 4-3-1.
PREDICTION
They are exhilarating yet contrasting strikers and this has ‘Fight of the Night written all over it. Expect Jourdain to bring more flair attacking from range with an array of kicks and Burgos to walk him down looking to chew him up in boxing range.
Burgos has a granite chin, but it is beginning to chip away after wars with some of the best strikers in the division. Jourdain will constantly be a threat from his southpaw position, particularly his kick to the mid-section and he will have to land a lot of volume to slow Burgos down.
We fancy Burgos to absorb the damage and out land Jourdain to convince the judges. He has a crazy output and his cardio will allow him to keep up the same pace for 15 minutes. Jourdain will be a threat, especially in the first round, but we expect Burgos to leverage his six-inch reach advantage and home support to pull out a vintage performance.
Prediction: Burgos via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DWIGHT GRANT VS DUSTIN STOLTZFUS
After losing his last two fights, Dwight Grant (11-5) tries his hand 15 pounds up at middleweight. After squeaking past Stefan Sekulic (2021) in a split decision, he fell on the wrong side of one against Franciso Trinaldo (2021). He then got knocked out in the third round by Sergey Khandozhko back in April. It was the ‘Fight of the Night’ but it has forced up a class hoping for better fortunes.
Dustin Stoltzfus (13-4) has not experienced any fortunes in the UFC so yet. After he technically beat Joseph Pyfer on the Contender Series after he dislocated his elbow with a slam, he has gone on to lose all three of his UFC fights. To be fair, they were very tough matchups losing a unanimous decision against Kyle Daukaus (2020) and then getting submitted by Rodolfo Vieira (2021) and Gerald Meerschaert (2021).
PREDICTION
It is going to be very interesting to see Grant up at middleweight. He will be relatively undersized for the division, but that will only be evident when fighting grapplers. He has range and knockout power, so as long as he can keep the fight on the feet, he will be a threat.
He has one inch in height and reach over Stoltzfus who is also a very dangerous striker. We expect some fiery exchanges on the feet. Grant has more knockout power, but Stoltzfus is the more powerful man, and if he can get a hold of Grant, it could be a very long night for him.
As Stoltzfus is on a three-fight skid, we expect him to be more risk averse here and call upon his grappling. He is a good striker, but if he gets knocked out, it could well be curtains to his UFC career. We can see him grinding out a decision and is great value as the underdog and we feel he has a good chance in pulling off the upset.
Prediction: Stoltzfus via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Stoltzfus to win
LAUREN MURPHY VS MIESHA TATE
Lauren Murphy (15-5) has recovered from COVID-19 and on her way to New York for another huge match-up for her. After compiling a five-fight win streak which is rare in the female divisions, she earnt a shot at the flyweight queen. The pool of contenders is as shallow as it gets in the division, but it was hard to argue she did not deserve a title fight after beating Mara Romero Borella (2019), Andrea Lee (2020), Roxanne Modafferi (2020), Liliya Shakirova (2020) and Joanne Wood (2021). However, she inevitably got dominated by Valentina Shevchenko (2021) and eventually TKO’d in the fourth round.
She welcomes the former bantamweight champion and pioneer, Miesha Tate (19-8) back for her third fight since her retirement. She hung up her gloves after Amanda Nunes (2016) and Raquel Pennington (2016) battered her UFC record down to 5-4. She returned in July last year and it was like she never left TKOing Marion Reneau earning a ‘Performance of the Night’. She then took on a challenge too far in Ketlen Vieira (2021) who outclassed her in a unanimous decision, and now Tate drops down a division for another fresh start.
PREDICTION
It will be fascinating to see Tate down at flyweight although it is hard to forget her struggles making the 135 lbs mark. She is leaner since coming out of retirement, but this cut will not be easy and if she is depleted Murphy will make her pay suffocating her with her pace.
They are both tough as nails and their styles are similar as grinding wrestlers with average striking. They get hit a lot and if they exchange a lot of damage, it will favour Murphy who almost seems to enjoy it. Over the course of three rounds, we expect them to throw a lot of volume and spend a lot of time in the clinch.
Tate looked great in her recent win, but Reneau had already mentally checked out and was there to be beat. Add in this weight cut, it is surprising to see her as such as big favourite. We are backing Murphy to earn a hard-fought decision and it is no brainer considering the odds.
Prediction: Murphy via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Murphy via Decision
RICKY SIMON VS JACK SHORE
After a flawless 2021, Ricky Simon (19-3) finally graces 2022. After getting knocked out on Urijah Faber’s comeback fight and outpointed by Rob Font in 2019, he bounced back with a split decision over Ray Borg (2020), a submission over Gaetano Pirrello, a unanimous decision over Brian Kelleher and a brilliant knockout over Raphael Assuncao. Now, he is finally back to try and extend the streak.
Jack Shore (16-0) is the man assigned to snap it. Winning is all he knows and he has barely put a foot wrong in the UFC so far. He picked up the seventh and eighth submissions of his career over Nohelin Hernandez (2019) and Aaron Phillips (2020) in his first two UFC fights before outpointing Hunter Azure (2021), Liudvik Sholinian (2021) and then Timur Valiev (2022).
PREDICTION
This is one hell of a test for Shore. Simon is experienced and one of the best wrestlers in the bantamweight division. His hands also continue to improve adding a knockout threat to his grappling game. Shore’s win over Valiev proved he can hang at the top and he has also evolved into a very well-rounded fighter from his jiu-jitsu background.
Shore is incredibly slick on the ground, but we feel Simon’s wrestling can shut that jiu-jitsu down unless he gets rocked so it will be interesting to see if he plays it safe and tries to wrestle. However, that knockout over Assuncao will give him confidence in his hands. That may work against him as the Brazilian’s chin is war beaten whereas Shore is fresh.
Shore is a better technical boxer and will have the speed advantage. Simon packs more power so the striking exchanges will be a fascinating watch. We are backing Shore to bring an even more improved version of himself to outclass Simon on the feet, but when somebody with the calibre of wrestling of Simon is the underdog, he represents all of the value.
Prediction: Shore via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Simon via Decision
DALCHA LUNGIAMBULA VS PUNAHELE SORIANO
Dalcha Lungiambula (11-4) is down three in his last four fights. It is unfamiliar territory for the South African who kicked off his UFC career with a bang murking Dequan Townsend (2019) in Moscow. However, he then took on future light heavyweight contender Magomed Ankalaev and got smoked himself by a beautiful front kick the same year. He responded with a unanimous decision win over Markus Perez (2021) but lost one against Marc-Andre Barriault (2021) and then got submitted by Cody Brundage back in March.
Punahele Soriano (8-2) is also in the unfamiliar territory of losing. After kicking off his UFC career with two first-round knockouts over Oskar Piechota (2019) and Dusko Todorovic (2021) following his decision win on the Contender Series against Jamie Pickett (2019,) he has gone on to suffer his first two pro losses. He lost a unanimous decision to Brendan Allen (2021) and is coming off a closer split decision to Nick Maximov back in February.
PREDICTION
Lungiambula is an absolute tank down at middleweight, but his cardio has let him down especially when taking on durable grapplers. Soriano can grapple, but he is cut from the same cloth and will prefer to keep the fight standing and hunt a knockout.
If they begin to trade and this slips into a brawl, anything can happen. They both hit like a truck and have also the ability to take each other down. We can see this being a slow-paced fight until they land with both capable of a finish.
So, as Lungiambula is the underdog, he represents the value, but we are leaning towards Soriano due to his speed and cardio advantage.
Prediction: Soriano via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JESSICA PENNE VS EMILY DUCOTE
2021 was the year Jessica Penne (14-5) craved. She was out for four years with a horrendous run of illnesses, injuries and luck with three straight losses behind her. Two were those dominant knockouts to Joanna Jedrzejczyk (2015) and Jessica Andrade (2016) as well as a unanimous decision to Danielle Taylor (2017). However, her fortunes finally changes when she returned in April last year earning a razor tight split decision over Lupita Godinez and then followed it up with an armbar over fellow veteran Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Now, she welcomes Emily Ducote (11-6) to the octagon. After losing her first shot at the Invicta strawweight title in a split decision to Kanako Murata (2019), she has gone on to win her next three including two very impressive knockouts. She outpointed Juliana Lima (2020), buried Taylor (2021) to win the vacant title and then defended it against Alesha Zappitella with another great finish back in May.
PREDICTION
If this stays on the feet, you have to back Ducote all day. Penne’s stand-up has always been average and has not improved. She does not have knockout power and tends to leave her chin exposed. Ducote on the other hand, has power and speed on her side.
She will be giving up a four-inch reach advantage, but we would still back her to win the exchanges. Penne is more experienced and if she uses that to mix in grappling and close the distance, she can subdue Ducote’s weapons. She is a solid grappler with great jiu-jitsu, so she has to try and get the fight to the floor.
If she can take Ducote down early, she could grind her way to a decision with Ducote’s own black belt skills enabling her to fend off the submission attempts. However, if she struggles to take her down, Ducote will make this look easy overwhelming Penne with her speed, youth and stunning jab.