UFC 276 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 276? Sunday 3rd July, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 276? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 276? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 276
What channel is UFC 276 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 276? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ISRAEL ADESANYA VS JARED CANNONIER
Israel Adesanya (22-1) struts out for the fifth defence of his crown. He has a long way to go to reach the Anderson Silva heights, but he has not put a foot wrong at middleweight. The only blip in his MMA career was when he stepped up to light heavyweight in pursuit of double champ status. It turned out to be a humbling experience realizing skill does not always counter weight and power. He was completely undersized and out grappled by Jan Blachowicz, but it was a valuable lesson and he has since gone on to earn classy unanimous decisions over Marvin Vettori (2021) and Robert Whittaker (2022) to maintain his perfect middleweight record.
Jared Cannonier (13-5) is the next challenger in line. After mixed results up at light heavyweight and even heavyweight, he has only experienced one blip himself since moving to his rightful home at 185 lbs. He knocked out David Branch (2018), Anderson Silva (2019) and Jack Hermansson (2019) before succumbing to Whittaker in a unanimous decision. He has also bounced back with two impressive wins earning a unanimous decision over Kelvin Gastelum (2021) and a ruthless knockout over the surging Derek Brunson (2022).
PREDICTION
Considering the way Adesanya dealt with the class and technique of Whittaker twice and the explosive power of Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa make him the obvious favourite here. That said, we know MMA maths does not always add up. Cannonier has one-punch knockout power with solid technique so he cannot be counted out.
Cannonier needs to close the distance at all costs. If he stands at the end of his range, Adesanya will chew him up while staying out of danger. The champ will boast a five-inch height, and a three-inch arm and leg reach advantage which he will leverage to full effect.
If Cannonier can get in the pocket, the odds will still be against him, but he has a better chance to find the chin. It may be risky accepting a few strikes to get close, but he only needs one shot to put him Adesanya in trouble.
Expect both of them to start trading leg kicks. Cannonier has the power to disable Adesanya, but the champ’s leg kicks have become some of the best in the division snapping them off finding his target from a distance with pinpoint accuracy.
Again, considering Adesanya’s distance control, Cannonier will have to eat kicks to the leg, body and head while getting countered by his jab and combinations. So, unless he can catch him early, the damage will build up, while Adesanya gets a read on all the openings which may lead to a late knockout.
We feel Adesanya will need to make a mistake of have a lapse in concentration to lose this. Cannonier is top tier with one-punch knockout power, but he is not bringing anything to the table that the champ has not seen and dealt with before.
Prediction: Adesanya via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI VS MAX HOLLOWAY
Alexander Volkanovski (24-1) is the #2 ranked pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, but it still feels as if he is underrated. The main reason is that many believe his two wins over Holloway were not conclusive hence why the UFC have worked hard to make this trilogy happen. He earnt a unanimous decision to snatch the belt in 2019 and followed it up with a closer split decision in 2020. Prior to that he beat Chad Mendes (2018) and the former king Jose Aldo (2019) and has since outpointed Brian Ortega (2021) and knocked out the Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung. So, there is a strong case to suggest he is the best featherweight of all time.
This is Max Holloway’s (23-6) last chance to to crack that case and cement his own claim. His only losses since 2014 were those to decisions to Volkanovski and one against Dustin Poirier up at lightweight. The rest of his record speaks for itself and in between those losses he dominated the legend Frankie Edgar (2019) and then went on to put on vintage clinics on fellow striking elites - Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez last year.
PREDICTION
In their first meeting Volkanovski landed 157 significant strikes (51% accuracy) to Holloway’s 134 (34% accuracy). In the second, Volkanovski landed 137 (50% accuracy) to Holloway’s 102 (38% accutracy).
The first fight was a lot more conclusive with Volkanovski’s leg kicks making the difference. Holloway seemed to underestimate him but made great adjustments second time round. He shortened his stance to combat the leg kicks and was a lot more aggressive even knocking him down with a head kick.
It was not quite enough on the night with Volkanovski making adjustments during the fight landing three takedowns. So, the question is what adjustments will they make at the T-Mobile Arena? It is hard to imagine how they can get better.
With two losses in the bank, Holloway is the underdog, but we can easily see him earning a decision. This is not just a fight to win his belt back. This is a legacy fight and he wants to be known as the best featherweight of all time and this is his last chance.
We have a feeling Volkanovski is going to bring a wrestling-heavy game plan to scrape a decision. The longer this stays on the feet, the more we fancy Holloway to convince three judges this time.
Prediction: Volkanovski via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Holloway via Decision
SEAN STRICKLAND VS ALEX PEREIRA
Sean Strickland (25-3) is on fire right now and has gradually climbed the ranks towards contender status after 15 UFC fights. The turning point came when he moved up to middleweight. He made the move after taking two years out recovering from a motorbike accident and has since strung five impressive wins together to extend his streak to six. He outpointed Jack Marshman (2020), TKO’d Brendan Allen (2020), earnt unanimous decisions over Krzysztof Jotko and Uriah Hall (2021) and is coming off a closer split decision over Jack Hermansson back in February.
The kickboxing sensation Alex Pereira (5-1) has been thrown right into the mix after just two UFC fights. The UFC are fast tracking him to take on his old foe and champion Israel Adesanya, but it remains to be seen whether he can hang with the upper echelon in MMA. After three knockout wins, he made his UFC debut against Andrea Michailidis (2021) and smoked him with a flying knee following that up with a unanimous decision over the dangerous striker and jiu-jitsu ace Bruno Silva (2022).
PREDICTION
There is no doubting Pereira is one of the best strikers on the roster, but he has enjoyed very favourable matchups in his short MMA career so far and this is his toughest assignment by a distance. Strickland will be the most technical striker he has faced in MMA and the best wrestler.
If this stays on the feet, Strickland is good enough to keep it competitive, but you would still have to back the kickboxer. However, if Strickland mixes in some grappling, this will be very interesting. He is not known for his wrestling, but it could be enough to subdue Pereira as long as he avoids getting clipped by one of the Brazilian’s missiles as he shoots in.
The hours Pereira has spent training with his friend and former light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira is the perfect preparation. He will be confident he can fend off any takedown attempts and carry out business as usual on the feet.
However, if Strickland can close the distance, he can tie Pereira up or inflict damage in the pocket with his boxing. If this goes into the third road, his volume and cardio can also make Pereira wilt so the underdog has visible paths to victory here and holds a lot of value.
All those paths can close with one strike and unless Strickland can close the distance the more likely that will happen. He will boast a three-inch height, arm and leg reach advantage and is lethal at range with all eight of his weapons.
A Pereira knockout or a Strickland decision is most likely here especially if Strickland decides to wrestle with a submission not out the question.
Prediction: Strickland via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Strickland via Decision
ROBBIE LAWLER VS BRYAN BARBERENA
The living legend Robbie Lawler (29-15(1)) extended his shelf life back in September last year by collecting his first win since July. His incredible wars finally caught up with him as the champion and Tyron Woodley’s monster right hand seemed to stamp an expiry date on the veteran. He responded to losing his title with a decision over Donald Cerrone (2016), but fell to strong grapplers – Rafael dos Anjos (2017), Ben Askren (2019), Colby Covington (2019) and Neil Magny (2020). He is coming off a win in a match-up of the ages – just the wrong age as Nick Diaz was clearly not in fighting shape.
Bryan Barberena (17-8) has been gifted a dream match-up. He is 8-6 in the UFC, but he has put on some exciting scraps and always comes to bang. His last loss was a majority decision to Jason Witt (2021), but he is coming off a rare streak of two by earning unanimous decisions over Darian Weeks (2021) and Matt Brown back in March picking up a ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus in the process.
PREDICTION
This is the perfect way to kick off the main card. Although they have both lost a touch of speed and durability, they are both savages and this could easily be a ‘Fight of the Night’ contender.
They both absorb a lot of strikes – 4.42 per minute for Lawler and 4.83 for Barberena. This is more of a worry for Barberena as Lawler still hits like a truck and he will not be able to eat that many shots on the night.
Expect some feisty exchanges with Lawler’s damage gradually building up. We can also see some clinch work which will also suit Lawler who is still brutishly strong and has sharp elbows and knees.
If Barberena can smother Lawler for three rounds or goad him into a reckless brawl he has a good chance, but we are backing Lawler to come out on top in violent battle.
Prediction: Lawler via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
PEDRO MUNHOZ VS SEAN O’MALLEY
Pedro Munhoz (19-7(1)) has lost four of his last five, but he has been awarded with a money fight to kick off the stacked pay-per-view card. That is because the fan-favourite is rarely involved in a boring fight. After that memorable slug fest with Cody Garbrandt (2019) where he was the last man standing, he went on to lose a unanimous decision to the current champ Aljamain Sterling (2019) and a split decision to Frankie Edgar (2021) that could have gone his way. He responded with a decision of his own against Jimmie Rivera (2021) but is coming off two more unanimous decision losses to two more legends in Jose Aldo and Dominick Cruz last year.
The only time Sean O’Malley (15-1) has not graced a pay-per-view card was on his debut. He racked up two ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses in his first four UFC wins before running into Marlon Vera (2020). The Ecuadorian disabled his leg leading to the TKO inflicting O’Malley’s first loss. The charismatic star quickly dismissed that performance and has gone on to knock out Thomas Almeida, Kris Moutinho and Raulin Paiva all last year in impressive fashion.
PREDICTION
On paper, this is a great stylistic match-up for O’Malley although we know Munhoz loves to tear up a script. Munhoz is a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he has fallen in love with his hands which is likely to be his undoing here.
He is confident trading with anyone, but he will be giving up five inches in height, seven and a half inches in arm reach and three and a half inches in leg reach. Add in the fact, O’Malley is one of the slickest and most illusive strikers in the division who is only getting better makes him the firm favourite for us.
Munhoz has the experience and power to hurt O’Malley, but if his game plan is simply to hope he connects and pounce on a submission, he will be in for a painful night. He has a ruthless guillotine and if he rocks O’Malley, he can cinch one up in a flash.
However, O’Malley is an underrated grappler which will give him more confidence on the feet. We can expect Munhoz to fire off his thunderous leg kicks to chop O’Malley down like Vera did, but this is where the range discrepancy will become evident.
Munhoz can cause problems in the pocket and with his leg kicks, but O’Malley’s technique, range and movement should negate that threat, lure the Brazilian into his web and may even seal a late knockout if he provokes Munhoz’s ego.
Prediction: O’Malley via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Munhoz via Submission
BRAD RIDDELL VS JALIN TURNER
Brad Riddell (10-2) is coming off the second loss of his career and it was a devastating one. He had four incredibly tough fights to start a UFC innings, but made his name known by outpointing Jamie Mullarkey (2019), Magomed Mustafaev (2020), Alex da Silva Coelho (2020) and Drew Dober (2021). That led him into the path of fellow prospect and striking phenom Rafael Fiziev (2021) who just had too much speed on the night and closed the show with a sensational spinning wheel kick.
Jalin Turner (12-5) is coming in hot with four super impressive finishes to set up this mouth-watering match-up. After losing a unanimous decision to Matt Frevola (2019), Turner responded by knocking out the talented Joshua Culibao (2020), submitting Brok Weaver (2020) and Uros Medic (2021) before knocking out Mullarkey (2022).
PREDICTION
The fact that Riddell only sneaks into the top 15 proves how stacked the lightweight division is. Riddell’s striking is at an elite level and Turner has the skill and attributes to cause any 155er problems.
He is the rangiest lightweight on the roster standing at 6’3” with a 77-inch arm and 46-inch leg reach. That’s six inches in arm reach and eight in leg reach and height on Riddell which is a reason why he is the favourite.
Riddell is technically the better striker and it is surprising his last five wins have gone to a decision considering his power. So, it will be fascinating to see how he combats Turner’s reach. Turner throws heat from a distance and is also lethal up close with knees and elbows.
However, he will be wise to maintain the distance here as Riddell is a different beast in the pocket. When it comes to a stand-up battle, it is hard to back against Riddell and we expect the majority of this to remain on the feet, however Turner’s ceiling is sky high. Combine that with his giant lightweight frame, we sense he could pull out a show stopping performance.
Riddell is a great shout as an underdog, but we are backing Turner to make it five on the bounce with a knockout, submission and decision all just as likely.
Prediction: Turner via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Riddell to win
IAN GARRY VS GABRIEL GREEN
Ian Garry (9-0) is following the superstar blueprint by appearing on blockbuster pay-per-view cards and this will be his third in his third UFC appearance. He lit up the Cage Warriors scene picking up the welterweight championship and made his debut against Jordan Williams in November last year. It was not plain sailing, but he eventually lived up to his reputation by cleaning his clock at the end of the first round. He returned a couple months ago to fight Darian Weeks and picked up the fifth knockout of his career and continue his perfect start.
Gabriel Green (11-3) heads to Vegas to spoil the show and derail to prospect. He had an extremely tough debut filling in for Kevin Holland to fight Daniel Rodriguez (2020). He lost a unanimous decision but has responded with a couple of quality wins. He outpointed Philip Rowe (2021) and is coming off a TKO over Yohan Lainesse back in April.
PREDICTION
Garry’s performances have not been perfect eating too many shots for his liking, but it is all part of the learning process and he clearly has a big and bright future ahead of him. He is also a big and bright welterweight and will boast his usual height advantage. He will only have a slight one-inch reach advantage over Green who will be his biggest test so far.
Green is also a solid boxer with heavy hands. He can also grapple but closing the distance and taking Garry down is easier said than done. If Green can prevent Garry from conducting the range and throw flurries in the pocket he can cause problems. His chin has been there to be hit and we can see Green rocking him.
That said, we expect Garry to bring an even more improved version of himself. He has the ability to control the distance and tempo utilizing his movement to land heavy leg kicks, kicks to the body and slick combinations luring Green into his traps. We are backing Garry fuel the hype but will need a flawless performance to put Green away.
Prediction: Garry via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JIM MILLER VS DONALD CERRONE
After three cancelled fights with Bobby Green Jim Miller (34-16(1)) finds himself on the stacked pay-per-view card with a fellow veteran and legend. Miller has more UFC fights than anybody and he is 23-15(1) on the big stage now which is very impressive considering the different generations of monsters he has fought over years and he is coming off two impressive knockouts over Erick Gonzalez (2021) and Nikolas Motta (2022).
Three cancelled fights with Joe Lauzon has also led Donald Cerrone (36-16(2)) on to the UFC 276 card. Lauzon misses the chance to give him the send-off, but it is fitting Miller steps in. They are tied for the most wins in UFC history along with Andrei Arlovski with 23, although he has been searching for one since 2019. He has run into beast after beast getting TKO’d by Tony Ferguson (2019), Justin Gaethje (2019) and Conor McGregor (2020) before a unanimous decision to Anthony Pettis (2020). He then fought to a draw (later overturned to a ‘no contest’) with Niko Price (2020) and is coming off his worst defeat – another knockout to Alex Morono (2021).
PREDICTION
Cerrone knocked Miller out with a head kick first time around, but that was all the way back in 2014, so we do not need to read into that.
What is interesting reading is that between them, they have earned 31 post-fight bonuses (Miller, 13 Cerrone, 18) and it is only right that the winner will break another record. Cerrone is in the worst form of his life and is the underdog, but this should be his swansong and it is at welterweight which will suit him to the ground.
He is a lot bigger than Miller, will not be as drained and able to take a better shot. He has the jiu-jitsu to compete with the submission wizard on the mat and he is a better striker. We know how dangerous Miller still is, but despite the form, Cerrone’s kickboxing and Muay Thai is just a level above.
He will also boast a three-inch height and reach advantage with his array of kicks attacking the legs, body and head which could easily lead to a knockout. It is tough to back Cerrone as he is so inconsistent, but on paper he should take this all day and we expect one more performance out of him.
Prediction: Cerrone via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Cerrone to win
URIAH HALL VS ANDRE MUNIZ
Uriah Hall (17-10) is hoping to regain some momentum after finally getting a streak going. He has never lived up to his potential and after getting steamrolled and knocked out by Paulo Costa (2018) he slumped to 6-7 in the UFC. However, he bounced back with a four-fight win streak and looked great in the process knocking out Bevon Lewis (2018), outpointing Antonio Carlos Junior (2019) and knocking out Anderson Silva (2021) which was followed by that gut wrenching leg break to Chris Weidman (2021). Unfortunately, Sean Strickland halted the run with a dominant unanimous decision.
Andre Muniz (22-4) is another uber talented fighter sneaking in under the radar. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu wizard is on an eight-fight win streak and has made short work of his UFC opponents. He went three rounds with Antonio Arroyo (2019) but it was a comfortable win and then went on to submit Bartosz Fabinski (2020). He then incredibly broke Jacare Souza’s (2021) arm who along with Demian Maia, is accepted as one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners who had ever graced MMA. Muniz then followed that up with another first-round submission, this time over Eryk Anders (2021).
PREDICTION
Hall has always relied on his striking, but his grappling is underrated, particularly his defence as we saw in the Carlos Junior fight. However, Muniz is a different beast on the mat. If he gets a hold of Hall, it should only be a matter of time before he snatches a limb or cinches in a choke.
On the flip side, Hall is arguably the most dangerous striker Muniz has faced. All four of the Brazilian’s losses have also come via knockout and considering Hall is a significant underdog, a Hall knockout is a no brainer.
However, Muniz just needs one of his trips to latch on a body lock and it is game over.
Prediction: Muniz via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Hall via KO/TKO
JESSICA EYE VS MAYCEE BARBER
Jessica Eye (10-15(1)) needs a win desperately. She has lost four of her last five and on a three-fight skid. After getting head kicked onto Jupiter by Valentina Shevchenko (2019) she responded with an impressive unanimous decision over the talented Viviane Araujo (2019). However, she has then dropped three unanimous decisions in a row to Cynthia Calvillo (2020), Joanne Wood (2021) and Jennifer Maia (2021).
Maycee Barber (10-2) is getting back on track after getting her hype train derailed. After knocking out her first three UFC opponents, everyone was talking about her. However, Roxanne Modafferi (2020) burst the bubble with the help of an ACL injury. Alexa Grasso (2021) then made sure the train was off the track with a unanimous decision win, but Barber responded well with a split decision over Miranda Maverick (2021) and a more convincing one over Montana De La Rosa back in April.
PREDICTION
These ladies are at the opposite end of their careers and it will still be very competitive. Eye is a seasoned boxer with good takedown defence whereas Barber is still trying to tune in her athleticism to become a well-rounded martial artist.
Under the tutelage of Team Alpha Male, she is doing just that. She has the explosiveness to break the guard of Eye on the feet and even take her down. We do not expect Barber to be able to control Eye with her grappling, but she can cause problems with her power.
On paper, this is an even contest, but the fact that Eye reached her potential years ago and Barber is not even close, we are backing the younger gun to earn a decision.