UFC Vegas 57 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 38? Sunday 26th June, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 38? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 38? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC on ESPN 38 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 38? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ARMAN TSARUKYAN VS MATEUSZ GAMROT
Arman Tsarukyan (18-2) headlines his first UFC event, and it certainly will not be his last. He announced himself as a future lightweight contender on his debut even though he lost a unanimous decision. That is because he took on Islam Makhachev (2019) and went toe-to-toe with the elite wrestler even taking him down. It was a solid performance and his only loss in his last 18. Unsurprisingly, he has gone on to rack up impressive wins – unanimous decisions over Olivier Aubin-Mercier (2019), Davi Ramos (2020) and Matt Frevola (2021) before TKOing Christos Giagos (2021) and Joel Alvarez (2022).
Fellow prospect Mateusz Gamrot (20-1) also headlines his first UFC card, and he has had a very similar journey. He wrecked the local scene collecting the featherweight and lightweight KSW titles without tasting defeat. However, on debut he ran into another prospect in the shape of Guram Kutateladze (2020) just missing out on a split decision. He responded in similar fashion to Tsarukyan notching up three very impressive wins – knocking out Scott Holtzman (2021), submitting Jeremy Stephens (2021) and TKOing Carlos Diego Ferreira (2021).
PREDICTION
These two are two of the most exciting and talented prospects on the entire roster and it will be a shame to see one get derailed. They are both extremely well-rounded and will be comfortable wherever the fight goes.
They are supreme grapplers. Tsarukyan is the stronger wrestler and Gamrot has better jiu-jitsu, but they are both elite so we are in for a treat. Gamrot’s takedown defence has not been tested, but it will here so it will be very interesting to see how he deals with Tsarukyan.
Tsarukyan will try and dictate the tempo and range with his wrestling and throw heat in the pocket hoping to catch Gamrot to drag the fight down into his domain and land in top position. What makes this so interesting is that this is also Gamrot’s specialty. He will be more confident in the striking and is a monster in top position.
Usually, these skill sets would cancel each other out forcing a stand-up battle, but we can see them both testing their ego. If they are fresh, we would expect Tsarukyan’s power and technique to enable him to control position better, but if one of them gets clipped and rocked on the feet, they both have the ability to finish each other on the ground.
It will be very interesting to see what their strategy is here. They both have the tools to nullify each other’s weapons so this will likely come down to who adapts during the fight to carve out a route to victory.
It will no doubt be very competitive and as Gamrot is the heavy underdog so he is a no brainer for a punt, but we feel Tsarukyan’s wrestling will be key in swaying the judges.
Prediction: Tsarukyan via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Gamrot to win
NEIL MAGNY VS SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV
Neil Magny (26-8) walks out for his 27th UFC fight and he has remained relevant for an impressive amount of time. He is 19-7 now and is desperate to build another streak if he wants a sniff at the title. After three dominant unanimous decisions in 2020 over Li Jingliang, Rocco Martin and Robbie Lawler he was well on the way. However, Michael Chiesa (2021) gave him a taste of his own medicine grinding out a decision of his own. He has replied with two to more vintage decisions over Geoff Neal (2021), Max Griffin (2022) and has now been handed another very tough assignment.
That assignment is Shavkat Rakhmonov (15-0) who none of the top ranked fighters want to take on. He is a lesser-known name but just as dangerous as the upper echelon and now he gets to prove it. After several cancellations, the former M-1 welterweight champion made his debut against late replacement Alex Oliveira (2020) stunning the crown with a first-round submission. He then followed that up with two more ruthless finishes submitting Michel Prazeres (2021) and clapping Carlston Harris (2022) with a spinning hook kick before closing the show with ground-and-pound.
PREDICTION
This is the perfect test for Rakhmonov and by far his toughest. He is a machine and has finished every opponent he has faced. Magny has top-level experience and exceptional cardio, but three rounds will not help him.
If he can weather the early storm, grab a hold of Rakhmonov and chain takedowns together, he can test his gas tank and subdue him enough to convince the judges. However, the Kazakhstani has the speed, power and technique to stuff the takedowns, cinch up a submission or create enough to space to light Magny up on the feet.
There are a few miles on the Magny’s clock now and we feel Rakhmonov will be able catch him clean with his speed advantage to set up a TKO or submission. Considering Magny is a huge underdog, he is the smart bet for sure.
Prediction: Rakhmonov via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Magny via Decision
JOSH PARISIAN VS ALAN BAUDOT
Josh Parisian (14-5) is coming off a humbling loss to Don’Tale Mayes getting dominated by his grappling (and cup). He got taken down six times and eventually finished in his crucifix. That came after a split decision win over Roque Martinez (2021) and a unanimous decision loss on his UFC debut against Parker Porter (2020) so he still has a lot of work to do to keep his head above water.
Alan Baudot (8-3(1)) is deeper in the water having not won a fight in his three UFC attempts. He was given a nightmare debut taking on the hottest prospect in the division Tom Aspinall (2020). It was a complete mismatch with the Brit putting Baudot out of his misery with a TKO in the first round. The Frenchman got TKO’d again in his next fight against Rodrigo Nascimento (2021) although his loss column was spared with a ‘no contest’ after the Brazilian failed a drugs test. Porter (2022) then caused the three-fight skid with a unanimous decision win.
PREDICTION
This is a better match-up for these two. Parisian will weigh in at least 20 lbs heavier, but they have the same height and reach and will both want to duke it out on the feet.
Baudot is a lot better than his recent form suggests and maybe it is because he is a smaller heavyweight. He trains with Cyril Gane which can only make him a better fighter, but he has not won a fight in four years.
As the odds suggest, this is a toss-up. We expect them both to have their moments landing shots and it could simply come down to has more heart and volume. A knockout is likely either way and we can also see them crawl to the bell. One to stay clear of from a betting point of view.
Prediction: Parisian via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
THIAGO MOISES VS CHRISTOS GIAGOS
Thiago Moises (15-6) is coming off two devastating losses but deserves credit for accepting fights that nobody wants. After submitting Michael Johnson (2020) and earning unanimous decisions over Bobby Green (2020) and Alexander Hernandez (2021) he answered the call to take on Islam Makhachev (2021). It was odd matchmaking, and the future title contender displayed his grappling prowess eventually submitting the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Up and comer Joel Alvarez then piled on the misery with a first-round knockout forcing Moises to suffer two losses in a row for the first time in his career.
Christos Giagos (19-9) is also coming off a wounding first-round knockout loss. He took on one of the brightest prospects on the roster Arman Tsarukyan (2021) who headlines this card and managed to stuff the initial takedown but then got stunned with a left hook leading to the TKO. That came after a unanimous decision over Carlton Minus (2020) and submission over Sean Soriano (2021) and now he is backing himself to regain that form here.
PREDICTION
Moises has lost four times in the UFC already, but they were to Beneil Dariush, Damir Ismagulov, Islam Makhachev and Joel Alvarez. They would all run through Giagos. That said, American is well rounded and very dangerous, especially on the feet and he will look at Moises’ fight with Johnson carefully.
The veteran was lighting him up on the feet, but as soon as Moises called upon his jiu-jitsu, his ankle was getting twisted sideways. Giagos is a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, but he will not want anything to do with Moises on the mat.
This will begin to play out on the feet where Moises’ confidence in his striking continues to improve. He will feel he can hang with Giagos, but we expect him to lose the boxing exchanges as Giagos has great hands.
The more Moises tests his ego on the feet, the more chance Giagos has. We expect him to be competitive in the striking exchanges especially if he finds a home for his leg kicks but considering Giagos’ takedown defence is only 52%, the quicker he mixes in takedowns the better.
As long as Moises incorporates a game plan, we are backing him to earn a classy decision or even a submission although there is value on Giagos considering the odds.
Prediction: Moises via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Giagos to win
NATE MANESS VS UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV
Nate Maness (14-1) announced himself onto the UFC bantamweight scene in spectacular fashion back in September last year. After the bell saved him from getting knocked out by Tony Gravely, he proceeded to dish out his own damage hammering him away with his right hand. That made it four wins on the bounce after his sole defeat and knockout courtesy of Taylor Lapilus (2019) losing the TKO bantamweight title. He made his UFC debut in 2020 outpointing Johnny Munoz Jr and submitted Luke Sanders four months later to set up the three-fight win streak.
Umar Nurmagomedov (14-0) returns for his second fight of the year and is gunning to extend his unbeaten record. He has barely been troubled in his career so far implementing the infamous Nurmagomedov grappling to maul his opponents collecting seven submissions and a knockout in his 14 wins. He made his debut in January last year submitting Sergey Morozov and followed that up with the biggest win of his career – submitting Brian Kelleher in the first-round back in March.
PREDICTION
Despite Maness only having one loss on the record, Nurmagomedov is a colossal favourite. So, the consensus is that the Russian will face little resistance in taking him and mauling him.
Maness stuffed 14 of Munoz Jr’s takedown attempts and five of Gravely’s six attempts. He clearly has solid defence, but Nurmagomedov is a different beast. We fully expect the Russian to get the fight to the ground, it is just a question of whether Maness can catch his chin before.
However, what makes Nurmagomedov such a heavy favourite, it the fact he can also strike. He has dangerous kicks and his hands continue to improve which makes his takedown harder to defend.
We expect these two to exchange on the feet before Nurmagomedov perfectly times a level change to throw Maness to the canvas to begin dominating. Maness has a punchers chance and may be worth a small punt for a knockout considering the odds, but Nurmagomedov should take this all day.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CHRIS CURTIS VS RODOLFO VIEIRA
Chris Curtis (28-8) is still on cloud nine after causing two huge upsets. He finally got his UFC call-up after a five-fight win streak for various promotions and filled in for Deron Winn to take on on Phil Hawes (2021). Hawes requested pushing the fight back to have a bit of time to prepare for Curtis, but it was not enough as he got smoked in the first round. Curtis was a +275 underdog then and in his next fight against Brendan Allen (2021) he was a +250 underdog. This time it took him two rounds to find the knockout.
As a reward he has been handed another monster in form of Rodolfo Vieira (8-1). The decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu powerhouse submitted six victims in his first seven fights including clinical arm triangles on Oskar Piechota (2019) and Saparbek Safarov (2020) seamlessly transitioning to MMA, that was until his cardio got tested. He took on Anthony Hernandez (2021) who weathered the first five minutes and proceeded to pull off one of the biggest shocks in recent history, submitting an exhausted jiu-jitsu world champion in the second round. Vieira got straight back to old ways five months later subbing Dustin Stoltzfus.
PREDICTION
This will all come down to if Vieira can take Curtis down early. He is a chiselled beast, but he has poor endurance and will not be able to hang with Curtis on the feet. The longer the fight goes on, the more he will fatigue and become an easy target for Curtis’ heavy hands.
Curtis will be giving up a lot of weight, but he has great takedown defence. Vieira’s wrestling is not the most efficient and a few failed takedown attempts will swing this firmly in Curtis’ favour. If the fight hits the deck, it will only be a matter of time before the Brazilian finds a submission.
Curtis is the favourite, but considering Vieira is a big middleweight and Curtis is more of a welterweight makes this very interesting. That said, we are backing Curtis to fend off the takedown attempts for the first round to then turn the tide capitalizing on Vieira’s terrible gas tank to find a late knockout.
Prediction: Curtis via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Vieira via Submission
CARLOS ULBERG VS TAFON NCHUKWI
Carlos Ulberg’s (4-1) last win generated more relief than ecstasy. The kickboxing star reignited his MMA career in 2018 picking up a couple wins including a knockout over Bruno Oliviera (2020) on the Contender Series. That led to his debut against Kennedy Nzechukwu (2021) and he did not respect the Nigerian’s weapons getting humbled by his check right hook in the second round. He then fought Fabio Cherant (2022) almost a year later and put on a more measured performance earning a unanimous decision.
Tafon Nchukwi (6-2) is coming off a devastating loss. He welcomed Azamat Murzakanov to the UFC back in March and was cruising but was ultimately greeted by a hellacious knee turning the lights off immediately. That came after a solid unanimous decision over Mike Rodriguez (2021) and majority decision loss to Jun Yong Park (2021) on debut.
PREDICTION
Those three rounds will give Ulberg the world of good as he still has a lot to learn in the MMA world. He is six inches taller than Nchukwi but will have the same reach. If this stays on the feet, we can expect fireworks as they possess knockout power and absorb a lot of damage especially Ulberg.
Ulberg is the better striker, but as good as he is offensively, he will not go far defending punches with his face. So, the striking battle will be fascinating, but Nchukwi has the grappling in his locker to take the fight away from the Kiwi.
A variety of outcomes are possible here and is probably one to avoid from a betting point of view. Nchukwi has the tools to shut Ulberg down, but it is hard to ignore his knockout threat.
Prediction: Nchukwi via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
RAULIAN PAIVA VS SERGEY MOROZOV
Raulian Paiva (21-4) returns after getting fed to Sean O’Malley back in December last year. Paiva is a very skilled fighter, but it was just a stylistic mismatch with O’Malley leveraging his range and striking advantage to put on a beating. That TKO snapped an impressive three-fight win streak since his first knockout loss which came against Rogerio Bontorin (2019). He sparked out Mark De La Rosa (2019) and then earnt two impressive decisions over Zhalgas Zhumagulov (2020) and Kyler Phillips (2020).
Sergey Morozov (17-5) is also coming off a devastating loss getting submitted by Douglas Silva de Andrade back in February. It was a crazy fight which he dominated the first round of, but Andrade turned the tide and inflicted the third submission loss of his career. His second came on his UFC debut against grappling powerhouse Umar Nurmagomedov (2021) who is also on the card. Those losses sandwich a unanimous decision win over Khalid Taha, and he desperately needs another win to stay afloat in the bantamweight division.
PREDICTION
They are both better than their UFC record suggests. They are real talents, and we expect a very exciting scrap.
Paiva will pounce on any opportunity to drag the fight to the floor, but we feel he will need to rock Morozov on the feet first. Paiva has a slight advantage when it comes to range, but Morozov has the edge when it comes to power and wrestling.
So, the Kazakhstani will be confident of landing the better shots on the feet and subduing Paiva with his wrestling and we feel that will be key. So, we are backing Morozov, but they are both unpredictable with suspect durability.
Prediction: Morozov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Paiva via Submission
BRIAN KELLEHER VS MARIO BAUTISTA
‘Boom’ Brian Kelleher (24-13) returns after the seventh submission loss of his career. It was back in March and came to Umar Nurmagomedov who is also on the card. He made short work of Kelleher who was coming off two unanimous decision wins over Domingo Pilarte (2021) and Kevin Croom (2022). Consistency is his main issue which is not helped by floating between bantamweight and featherweight and is now 8-6 in the UFC.
Mario Bautista (9-2) is five fights deep into his UFC tenure now but still has his career ahead of him at 28 years old. He received a baptism of fire on his debut stepping in for John Lineker to get submitted in the first round by Cory Sandhagen (2019). He responded with a unanimous decision over Jin Soo Son (2019) and a stunning flying knee knockout over Miles Johns (2020). He then suffered the second loss of his career getting TKO’d by Trevin Jones (2021) but he is back on the winning trail outpointing Jay Perrin four months ago.
PREDICTION
These guys are very evenly matched. They are both powerful strikers with Bautista boasting the range advantage with three inches in height and reach on Kelleher. He will look to utilize it by maintaining the distance with his jab and leg kicks staying out of Kelleher’s range.
We all know Kelleher can crack, but his easiest route to victory here is to take Bautista down and work on a submission. However, he will have a tough time dragging the fight to the floor as Bautista has solid takedown defence and is also dangerous off his back. He will also be a knockout threat looking to time his explosive knees when Kelleher shoots in.
This will be a fascinating and competitive contest. Bautista is the favourite and we feel he has the tools to keep the fight where he wants it for the majority of 15 minutes while leveraging his reach to land more significant strikes to sway the judges.
Prediction: Bautista via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Kelleher to win
JINH YU FREY VS VANESSA DEMOPOULOS
Vanessa Demopoulos (7-4) has got her UFC career up and running after losing a unanimous decision to JJ Aldrich (2021) on her debut. It was her third loss in four including unanimous decision losses to Cory McKenna (Contender Series) and Lupita Godinez (LFA) in 2020. However, she responded perfectly to the Aldrich loss by cinching Silvana Gomez Juarez (2022) up in an armbar at UFC 270.
Jinh Yu Frey (11-6) also had a ropey start to her UFC career, but is back on track and gaining some momentum. She got submitted by Kay Hansen (2020) on her debut and then lost a unanimous decision against Loma Lookboonmee four months later. With the roster grim reaper looking over her, she pulled out a unanimous decision of her own against Gloria de Paula (2021) and followed it up with another against UFC veteran Ashley Yoder (2021) to keep her spot safe.
PREDICTION
This is good matchmaking with both ladies needing an impressive performance to stay afloat in the division. Demopoulos will be giving up some size and weight as usual with Frey boasting a six-inch reach advantage.
Demopoulos should look to negate that by closing the distance and pursuing the takedown. She is an aggressive striker, but she is predictable and easy to hit. If she stands in front of Frey, she will get chewed up over three rounds.
Frey also has quality takedown defence. Yoder was unable to take her down in eight attempts and Demopoulos was unable to take Aldrich down in five attempts. If Demopoulos can keep Frey guessing, she may be able to take her down, but she needs a strategy.
If she does, Frey will be able to hold her own in the grappling exchanges especially as she will enjoy being the bigger fighter for once. We feel Frey will be able to keep the fight on the feet and give the judges an easy decision.