UFC Fight Night 207 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 207? Sunday 5th June, 2022 - 00:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 207? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 207? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 207 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 207? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ALEXANDER VOLKOV VS JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK
Alexander Volkov (34-10) makes a quick turnaround after getting dispatched by Tom Aspinall back in March. Volkov provided the biggest test of the prospects career but could not make it out the first round getting caught in his armbar. That made it 1-2 in his last three after getting schooled for five rounds by Ciryl Gane (2021) and then handing out a lesson himself to Marcin Tybura (2021) earning the unanimous decision, so he needs an impressive win here to stay relevant in the division.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-3) wasted no time transitioning from a successful kickboxing to go 10-0 after starching legends Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem in 2019. However, he quickly experienced how tough it can be at the top subsequently losing to three of the best in the division. He was added to Francis Ngannou’s victim sheet (2020) before TKOing Junior dos Santos (2020). He then also got outclassed in a decision by Ciryl Gane (2021) before TKOing Augusto Sakai (2021) and is also coming off a loss which was to Curtis Blaydes in a decision back in September last year.
PREDICTION
Two of the most polished heavyweight strikers collide in what will be an intense stand-up battle. They will both be thankful they do not have to worry about getting taken down and both will be confident they can find the knockout.
The key differences are Rozenstruik’s one-punch knockout power and Volkov’s range. The Russian only has a two-inch arm reach advantage, but he boasts five inches in height and six and a half in leg which he will utilize by trying to keep Rozenstruik at bay with leg kicks and front kicks down the middle creating awkward angles with his height.
Rozenstruik cannot simply rely on his power and he will have to have a strategy of breaking the distance as Volkov uses his range masterfully and can keep a steady pace for five rounds. Rozenstruik will have to be very patient, so expect the tempo to be slow.
If Rozenstruik manages to find himself in the pocket, Volkov will clinch up and pound those knees up, breaking him down, but he also needs to be extremely cautious as Rozenstruik will carry the same threat as Lewis. He could be losing five rounds but uncork a bomb to close the show.
That said, the Lewis fight was the perfect lesson for Volkov. He knows how to use his technique and range to frustrate and pick a power-hitter apart and now knows he cannot lose focus for a second. We are backing him to get the job done this time, but there is no guarantee against someone like Rozenstruik. Knockouts either way or a Volkov decision is most likely here.
Prediction: Volkov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rozenstruik via KO/TKO
DAN IGE VS MOVSAR EVLOEV
Dan Ige (15-5) is in an unfamiliar purple patch going 1-3 in his last four. After losing his debut to Julio Arce (2018) he compiled a very impressive six-fight win streak which led him into the path of some featherweight monsters. The streak got snapped by Calvin Kattar (2020) in a unanimous decision decision. He responded with a stunning knockout over Gavin Tucker (2020) but has gone on to lose unanimous decisions to Chan Sung Jung (2021) and Josh Emmett (2021).
Movsar Evloev (15-0) is sitting pretty on an unbeaten record, but he still has a lot of work to do to put the featherweight elite on notice. The Russian has put his masterful Greco-Roman wrestling on full display to win all five of his UFC fights against quality opponents -outpointing Seung Woo Choi (2019), Enrique Barzola (2019), Mike Grundy (2020), Nik Lentz (2021) and Hakeem Dawodu (2021).
PREDICTION
This is a tough match-up for Ige coming off two losses to take on a smaller name with one of the most dangerous skill sets in the division. On the flip side, this is the opportunity Evloev has been waiting for.
Ige has the experience and the striking, but we all know Evloev is going to try and counter that with his wrestling. The longer this stays on the feet, the worse the Russian is going to look. However, if he can out wrestle Grundy, he can man-handle Ige.
Ige is going to need a game plan of countering and sniping Evloev as he shoots in. He will have to accept giving up some control time and try and save enough energy to threaten on the feet deep into the fight.
We can see Ige catching Evloev and he is the smart bet considering the odds, but in all likelihood the Russian is going to grind out another decision with some adversity.
Prediction: Evloev via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ige to win
MIKE TRIZANO VS LUCAS ALMEIDA
Mike Trizano (9-2) has suffered his only losses in his last three. After scraping by fellow TUF opponents Joe Giannetti (2018) to win the tournament and Luis Pena (2018) in split decisions, he was sitting at 8-0. He then dropped back down to featherweight to take on Grant Dawson (2019) who was too strong and submitted him in the second round. Trizano responded well with a unanimous decision over Ludovit Klein (2021) but is now coming off his second loss which was a unanimous decision to Hakeem Dawodu back in February.
He welcomes Lucas Almeida (13-1) to the octagon. In his sole fight in 2019, he knocked out Nicolas Cocuccio in the third round to extend his unbeaten record to 12-0. Nearly a year later, he headed to the APEX for his audition on the Contender Series but suffered his first loss dropping a unanimous decision to Daniel Zellhuber (2021). However, he laced up the gloves just a month later to submit Italo Trindale and get the call-up.
PREDICTION
These guys have the same height and reach and a similar amount, of fights but Trizano has fought tougher competition so far in his career. He is the heavy favourite, but Almeida only has one loss on the record which was to the undefeated Zellhuber and he is clearly a natural finisher with a lot of tools at his disposal.
He will fight long and may even initiate some grappling, but Trizano should just have the edge in every area. Expect him to stick behind his jab gradually wearing Almeida down. When he starts to tire Trizano will open up with combinations and his big right hand.
This fight should be a mixture of striking and grappling fought at a decent pace until the bell. We are backing Trizano to get back on track, but the value is with the Brazilian considering the odds.
Prediction: Trizano via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Almeida to win
POLIANA BOTELHO VS KARINE SILVA
Poliana Botelho (8-4) needs to pull a performance out the bag to ensure her place on the roster. She has talent and got people excited after winning her first two UFC fights – outpointing Pearl Gonzalez (2017) and folding Syuri Kondo (2018) with a beautiful body kick. However, she has struggled against grapplers getting submitted by Cynthia Calvillo (2019) and losing a unanimous decision to Gillian Robertson (2020) after earning one herself against Lauren Mueller (2019). She then fought fellow striker Luana Carolina (2021) but narrowly fell on the wrong side of a split decision to go 1-3 in her last four.
She welcomes Karine Silva (14-4) to the UFC who is coming in hot with five straight finishes. She TKO’d Vitoria Ferreira and submitted Geovanna Eduarda in 2019 for Cidade da Luta and then submitted Simone da Silva and snapped Sidy Rocha’s arm in 2020 for Standout Fighting Tournament. She followed that up with another submission over Qihui Yan on the Contender Series back in October to earn the call-up.
PREDICTION
This is not a great match-up for Botelho who does not gain much stock beating a newcomer but could get the chop with a loss.
Silva has a lot of potential as a strong grappler with decent striking and is only 28 years old. So, she matches up quite similarly with Botelho who is one of the more powerful strikers in the division.
Expect her to open up with her heavy leg kicks and strikes from range with Silva will responding in kind mixing up her attacks. We also expect takedowns to be exchanged and time spent in each other’s clinch as they will both be confident wherever the fight goes.
That said, the more grappling there is, the more you have to favour Silva, especially if the end up on tangling on the canvas. The longer this stays on the feet, the more you have to back Botelho with her speed and technique, but this is going to be a very tight scrap.
A Silva submission or a decision either way are most likely here and as Botelho is the underdog, she is the smart pick, but we are leaning towards a successful debut for Silva.
Prediction: Silva via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ODE OSBOURNE VS ZARRUKH ADASHEV
Ode Osbourne (10-4(1)) is coming off a much-needed win after getting finished in two of his first three UFC fights. He stepped up to bantamweight for his debut against Brian Kelleher (2020) who has had success up at featherweight, so he was undersized and quickly submitted. He then bounced back taking just 26 seconds to knock out Jerome Rivera (2021) but then ran into Manel Kape and his flying knee the same year. He is now back on track with a solid unanimous decision over CJ Vergara back in November and has a great chance to make it two on the bounce here.
After going 16-3 in his kickboxing career, Zarrukh Adashev (4-3) has failed to impress so far in MMA. He earnt three wins for Bellator before joining the UFC, but his debut could not have gone worse getting clapped by Tyson Nam (2020) in just 32 seconds. Su Mudaerji (2021) piled on more misery in his next fight with a unanimous decision but Adashev responded with a unanimous decision of his own in his last fight against Ryan Benoit (2021).
PREDICTION
Both these guys are incredibly quick southpaws. We all know about Adashev’s striking credentials and Osbourne is also very slick on the feet so we should be in for an exciting battle here.
Expect Osbourne to strike from range with kicks down the middle while countering with short hooks. Adashev will be more aggressive initiating the action by walking into the pocket and offloading heavy bombs.
The Uzbekistani is more explosive with more power but if he loads up he will get countered easily and drain the gas tank. Osbourne will boast a significant nine-inch reach advantage so he will be waiting for Adashev’s looping over hands to time his own hooks.
Adashev is a more dangerous striker but the discrepancy in reach could make it a long night for him unless he can catch Osbourne which we can see happening. However, Osbourne also has his wrestling to call upon. Adashev’s grappling has not been exposed yet and Osbourne may just ensure a decision by doing so.
Prediction: Osbourne via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Adashev via KO/TKO
ALONZO MENIFIELD VS ASKAR MOZHAROV
If only Alonzo Menifield (11-3) was more consistent although, there is only so far you can go with a limited gas tank, but that said he has the power to put any light heavyweight to sleep. After losing to Devin Clark (2020) and Ovince Saint Preux (2020), he showed a couple different strings to his bow by submitting Fabio Cherant (2021) and earning a matured unanimous decision over veteran Ed Herman (2021). However, he then got paired with a fellow juggernaut in William Knight (2021) falling on the wrong side of a unanimous decision this time.
After having bouts with Ben Rothwell and Dustin Jacoby scrapped last year, Askar Mozharov (21-8) finally makes his debut. He has racked up a lot of experience in his native Ukraine and finally has a chance to add a name to the record. He is coming off a quick knockout over Victor Jones for BYB Bare Knuckle Fighting Series and three other knockouts for the PPC – Kratos Cup in 2020 which in all honesty were utter mismatches. He swatted away Konstantin Linnik at middleweight which was in a park, Fabrice Degand at light heavyweight and then Evgeniy Golub which was up at heavyweight.
PREDICTION
Hopefully Mozharov can establish himself in a UFC division now and test his credentials against the upper echelon. He is a ferocious striker hailing from a Muay Thai background and made light work of opponents on the regional scene.
This should be an absolute fire fight. Between them, they have only been to a decision three times and worryingly for Mozharov, he has been finished in all eight of his losses. They are both incredibly explosive and if they decide to swing for an early finish, someone is getting slept.
Mozharov has a lot more experience, but Menifield has fought tougher competition and he needs to call upon that experience to not get sucked into a brawl with the Ukrainian. He will be giving up some height and reach here so expect Mozharov to try and keep him at kicking range.
His kicks are monstrous and he will attack Menifield’s legs and set up spinning attacks. Menifield is likely to try and negate the range by clinching up, but training out of Thailand, Mozharov will welcome any clinch work.
On paper, this is a good match-up for Mozharov but anything can happen in this first round. A knockout is most likely and the longer the fight lasts, the more you have to back Mozharov considering Menifield’s cardio. The smart pick is whoever the underdog is here.
Prediction: Menifield via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DAMON JACKSON VS DANIEL ARGUETA
Damon Jackson (20-4-1(1)) is is 3-1 in his second UFC stint and he clearly has a lot more to offer in the big time. After submitting Mauro Chaulet (2020) for LFA, he returned to the octagon to rack up another submission, this time over Mirsad Bektic (2020). However, he then ran into the surging Ilia Topuria (2020) who claimed the second knockout of his career. He has been less active since but picked up a solid unanimous decision win over Charles Rosa (2021) and notched up the 15th submission of his career tying Kamuela Kirk (2022) up in a beautiful arm triangle.
He was originally scheduled to fight fellow submission wizard Darrick Minner who has had to pull out giving Dan Argueta (8-0) the opportunity to make his debut. He is coming in hot with two wins already this year to extend his unbeaten record. He TKO’d Mairon Santos Alves in February and made a quick turnaround a month later to scrape past Diego Silva in a split decision to become the bantamweight LFA champion.
PREDICTION
This is a huge opportunity for Argueta fell at the final hurdle of The Ultimate Fighter 29.. He is a strong and explosive athlete with quality grappling. He has brilliant reactive takedowns and loves nothing more than to get the fight to the deck to offload ground-and-pound and work on a submission.
However, he is moving up to featherweight to take on someone with a wealth of experience and some of the most underrated grappling in the division who will welcome getting taken down.
We expect to see a mixture of grappling and striking here. Argueta is arguably the better striker so he will be wise to keep this onto the feet. It will be interesting to see how he looks up at featherweight. He is very strong but will be giving up four inches in height and three in reach.
The length will play into Jackson’s hands on the feet and on the ground. Argueta can overwhelm Jackson with his explosiveness, but if he decides to test his ego on the mat, he may get a humbling. We fancy Jackson’s experience, reach and jiu-jitsu should earn him a decision or submission here.
Prediction: Jackson via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
BENOIT SAINT-DENIS VS NIKLAS STOLZE
Benoit Saint-Denis (8-1) received a baptism of fire on his UFC debut back in October last year. He got a place on the UFC 267 card but got paired with Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos who won a unanimous decision but the referee had an absolute howler failing to stop the fight on multiple occasions. That loss dented the unbeaten record with a knockout and seven submissions including two arm-triangle chokes over Luan Santiago and Arkaitz Ramos Gudari in 2021 for Brave CF.
Niklas Stolze (12-5) has also had a tough start to his UFC career and is still seeking a win after two showings. He was riding a four-fight win streak for different promotions but was also given a very tough debut in the form of Ramazan Emeev (2020) who out wrestled him to a unanimous decision. He returned a year later to take on Jared Gooden who knocked him out with a vicious right hand down the pipe
PREDICTION
It is great to see these Europeans back, but it will be a shame to see one of them lose again. Although it was a brutal loss, Saint-Denis displayed a ton of durability and heart. He is a good striker, but his bread and butter is clearly his grappling and if he cannot take Stolze down, he may be in for a long night.
The German is also coming off a brutal loss, but he is a quality striker with great movement. The trouble is, we do not feel he will be able to defend the takedown and punish Saint-Denis with his striking like Zaleski dos Santos did.
One of these guys need to pull a performance out the bag and considering the stylistic match-up it is more likely to be the Frenchman winning the fight with his grappling.
Prediction: Saint-Denis via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ZHALGAS ZHUMAGULOV VS JEFF MOLINA
Zhalgas Zhumagulov (14-6) is finding it tough under the bright lights. There was no doubt he would make it to the UFC after earning decisions over Tyson Nam (2018), Tagir Ulanbekov (2018) and Ali Bagautinov (2019) for Fight Nights Global. However, he has gone 1-3 after losing unanimous decisions to Raulian Paiva (2020) and Amir Albazi (2021) before submitting Jerome Rivera (2021) and now he is coming off a TKO handed out by Manel Kape back in December.
Jeff Molina (10-2) has enjoyed an easier start to his UFC career earning a unanimous decision over Qileng Aori (2021) on debut and then finishing Daniel Lacerda with ground-and-pound after dropping him in the second round. Those wins have extended his streak to nine and he has all of the momentum.
PREDICTION
Zhumagulov has to call upon his grappling here. He is a quality striker and he has relied on his hands when taking on other good grapplers, but there is a clear route to victory here. Molina got taken down relatively easily by Jacob Silva and Qileng Aori. Add in the fact he is a top striker with dangerous power, the Kazakstani has got to get his wrestling boots on.
The longer Zhumagulov decides to stand, the more likely he will lose or even get knocked out. If he decides to grapple from the bell, we can see him grinding out a decision. Considering he is the underdog, he represents all the value, but it is hard to bet against Molina right now.
Prediction: Zhumagulov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ANDREAS MICHAILIDIS VS RINAT FAKHRETDINOV
Andreas Michailidis (13-5) has had a rough time in his three UFC fights. He stepped up on short notice at light heavyweight to get brutally knocked out by Modestas Bukauskas (2020) and was then rewarded with an easier fight back down in his weight class against KB Bhullar (2021). He won a unanimous decision but was then fed to the kickboxing sensation Alex Perieira (2021) who proceeded to smoke him with a flying knee in the second round.
He has now been paired with another monster in Rinat Fakhretdinov (20-2). The Russian makes his debut off the back of 14 straight wins including 12 finishes. Most of those have come on the regional scene against cans with minimal experience, but he is coming off a first-round knockout, flatlining UFC alumni Eric Spicely (2021) for UAE Warriors.
PREDICTION
That knockout over a year ago to Spicely is Fakhretdinov’s only notable win, but it is his only fight since August 2019. That said, there is a lot of expectation on him. He is a very dangerous and has a well-rounded skill set.
Expect him to threaten with bombs and if Michailidis saw his knockout over Spicely, he will have to respect his striking. This will make his takedowns easier to set up when the Greek is on the back foot.
Fakhretdinov has legitimate knockout power but he throws wild looping shots with his chin exposed, so Michailidis can catch him with counters. However, we can see the Russian swinging wildly before landing a takedown and punishing Michailidis on the ground. The Greek may have the durability to drag this to the bell, but we are leaning towards a a TKO for the Russian.