UFC 275 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 275? Sunday 12th June, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 275? Singapore Indoor Stadium, Kallang, Singapore
Where can I get tickets for UFC 275? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 275
What channel is UFC 275 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 275? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
GLOVER TEIXEIRA VS JIRI PROCHAZKA
At 42 years old, Glover Teixeira (33-7) is sitting at the top of the light heavyweight division and on a sensational six-fight win streak proving age is just a number in one of the most brutal sports in the world. After losing to Jon Jones (2014) on his first attempt, he suffered three setbacks which led to many writing off his title hopes, but his resurgence includes three ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses, a TKO over Anthony Smith (2020) and submissions over Thiago Santos (2020) and Jan Blachowicz (2021) claiming his title with a rear-naked choke on Fight Island.
He takes on Jiri Prochazka (28-3-1) for his first defence who is at the opposite end of his UFC career. He only made his second UFC appearance a year ago, but proved he is ready by dispatching the former title challenger Dominick Reyes with a savage spinning back elbow. That followed a starching of another title challenger in Volkan Oezdemir (2020) and he is now on a 12-fight winning streak including 11 knockouts.
PREDICTION
Prochazka has a lot of experience under his belt, but he does not have that top-level cage time-time Teixeira possesses. That said, he has the tools to topple the champion and those lie in his ferocious, and unpredictable striking. You just have to look at his record to see how dangerous he is with 25 knockouts out of his 28 wins and he is only getting better.
We all know what Teixeira brings to the table and he can hang with just about any 205er with his solid technical boxing. He is a problem for anyone in the pocket however, Prochazka is a master at inflicting damage at range and he will attempt to utilize his movement to keep the fight at his distance controlling the tempo.
The clear strategy for the champion is to close that distance and land a takedown. If he can get the former Rizin champion to the ground, it should only be a matter of time before he makes him wilt with ground-and-pound opening up a submission.
So, the key factor here is Prochazka’s takedown defence. He is incredibly illusive for his size creating brilliant scrambles with his athleticism and explosiveness. He is going to be extremely dangerous in the first couple rounds and he he can defend the takedowns for the first 10 minutes, we can see him landing and knocking out the Brazilian.
However, if the fight goes to the floor and the longer it lasts, the more you have to back Teixeira dragging him into deep waters with his experience and durability. The timing, unpredictability and power of the challenger can easily find the knockout, but that will all count for nothing on his back.
Teixeira can win this in a variety of ways and has crucial five-round experience the Czech native does not have so he is the smart bet if he remains the underdog, but we are leaning towards a Prochazka knockout.
Prediction: Prochazka via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Teixeira via Submission
VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO VS TAILA SANTOS
The Queen of the flyweights Valentina Shevchenko (22-3) heads to Singapore to make the seventh defence of her crown. The only fighter she has lost to in the UFC is the female ‘GOAT’ Amanda Nunes up at bantamweight and the split decision in 2017 could have easily gone her way. She is in a league of her own at 125 lbs swatting away top contender after top contender. She has been a picture of consistency during her reign of terror fighting twice a year and she is coming off two ruthless TKO’s over Jessica Andrade and Lauren Murphy last year.
Taila Santos (19-1) is the next contender lined up for the Queen and on paper, she is the only flyweight that can trouble her right now. Her only loss was a split decision to Mara Romero Borella (2019) on her UFC debut which should have gone her way. Since then, she has responded with dominant unanimous decisions over Molly McCann (2020), Gillian Robertson (2020), Roxanne Modafferi (2021) and a submission over Joanne Wood (2021) showing she is only beginning to reach her prime.
PREDICTION
Shevchenko is one of the most well-rounded fighters of all time and it is a shame the flyweight division has not provided any serious tests. She has had an answer for anything that has been thrown at her. She lost one round against Jennifer Maia getting out grappled, but Shevchenko followed that up by mauling one of the strongest women in the UFC in Andrade.
To dethrone the Queen, somebody needs to be powerful, aggressive and enforce their will on her. This is exactly what Santos can do. She is a powerful beast and very well-rounded. She has dangerous Muay Thai and is also a very strong grappler with good jiu-jitsu.
However, she needs a strategy to string these skills together. If she can manage the distance on the feet, she can use her power advantage to hurt Shevchenko with counters. She can also mix in her grappling and cause problems in the clinch and even take her down, but she has to be unpredictable.
Unlike other contenders, Santos has the tools and well roundedness to hang with Shevchenko. She has the striking to hurt her and the grappling to have more success than Maia did. However, where she is lacking is the experience to employ her tools strategically and over five rounds.
She has never been past the third and although we feel she could be a future champion, Shevchenko is simply a step too far for her right now. The Brazilian will look good for the first two rounds and may put the champ in more trouble than she has been in before, but Shevchenko’s experience, pacing and technique will shine through once again.
Prediction: Shevchenko via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
WEILI ZHANG VS JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK
Not many people expected Weili Zhang (21-3) to lose two in a row after dispatching Jessica Andrade (2019) in less than a minute to claim the strawweight title. However, she met her kryptonite in Rose Namajunas who gave her a taste of her own medicine with a quick and clinical knockout. Six months later in November last year she got her rematch and gave a much better account of herself but fell short again, this time in a split decision. Prior to those losses she made the first defence of her title in what turned out to be the best female fight of all time, going to war and coming out on top in a split decision with the former Queen of the division.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (16-4) could have easily got the nod from another judge that night in 2020 which was gutting for her and gutting for the fans, she has not fought since. Since the last defence of her belt, she has gone 2-4 which includes four title fights – two against Namajunas (2017 and 2018), one against Valentina Shevchenko (2018) at flyweight and her most recent scrap with Zhang. Now, she walks out to prove there is still gas left in the tank.
PREDICTION
Although this will not live up to their first battle, we still expect an exhilarating scrap. This is only three rounds which will create an even faster pace, but both fighters are at a different spot now.
Zhang is in the unfamiliar territory of a two-fight skid which has to dent the confidence, but she is still in her prime and taking on a fighter who has been flirting with retirement and not fought in over two years. Zhang is understandably the favourite and although she is coming off two losses, she has remained active and gained priceless experience.
They are still very evenly matched. In the first fight they exchanged a colossal number of blows with Zhang landing 165 significant strikes to Jedrzejczyk’s 186. Zhang swayed the final judge by landing more powerful shots as well a takedown.
We do not expect them to land as much damage, but they will still carry a high output, switching stances and landing a variety of technical strikes with all eight limbs. Jedrzejczyk is obviously still elite and we expect her to have a lot of success on the feet finding the chin, but over three rounds, Zhang’s power advantage grappling should be enough to convince enough judges again.
Jedrzejczyk excels in five rounders, but she will need to start quickly, remain elusive, and keep up a furious pace for 15 minutes. She is more than capable of this, but we feel Zhang will counter with power shots and only needs a couple takedowns to steal a round.
Jedrzejczyk is worth a punt for a decision with good odds, but we question her motivation and rustiness compared to Zhang who still has room to grow and desperate to get her belt back.
Prediction: Zhang via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Jedrzejczyk via Decision
JAKE MATTHEWS VS ANDRE FIALHO
Jake Matthews (17-5) has only fought once since September 2020 when he dominated Diego Sanchez in a unanimous decision. The win at UFC 253 capped a decent three-fight win streak including two more unanimous decisions over Rostem Akman (2019) and Emil Meek (2020). However, he was dealt a tough hand in his most recent fight in the form of the unbeaten prospect Sean Brady (2021) who submitted him in the third round.
Contrastingly, Andre Fialho (16-4(1)) has fought eight times since Matthews’ last win. He racked up four knockouts under the UAE Warriors banner before making his UFC debut. It was a tough match-up in Michel Pereira (2022), but he took the rising contender to the bell in a unanimous decision loss. That was in January, and he has already fought twice since knocking out Miguel Baeza and Cameron VanCamp in the first round.
PREDICTION
Fialho is hunting his third knockout in three months and Matthews has only been knocked out once which was to Kevin Lee (2016) on the floor. He knows Fialho is going to want to stand and bang to find a home for his heavy hands.
Matthews is a decent striker but considering the form Fialho is in and his threat on the feet, he has to rely on his bread and butter to close the distance and drag the fight to the mat. Fialho is understandably the favourite, and although it is hard to fight so frequently and win, his last two fights did not make it out the first round so he is fresh.
Another Fialho knockout makes sense, but the only fighters Matthews has lost to in his last eight fights are Rocco Martin and Sean Brady who are on another level to Fialho. Matthews can win this in a variety of ways. His striking is underrated and he is a much better grappler. If can close the distance without taking too much damage, we can see him upsetting the odds and grinding out a decision.
Prediction: Matthews via Decision
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Value Bet: Matthews to win
JACK DELLA MADDALENA VS RAMAZAN EMEEV
Jack Della Maddalena (11-2) clearly did not lose any faith after losing his first two pro fights. He got knocked out and submitted back in 2016 but has gone on to blitz through his next 11 opponents with nine knockouts and a submission. After five straight knockouts for the Eternal MMA promotion, he was rewarded with an audition on the Contender Series. He was paired with Ange Loosa going to the bell for the first time which was enough to earn the coveted contract. On debut back in January, he displayed the prowess that got him to the octagon by handing out Pete Rodriguez’s first loss with a beautiful straight left in the first round.
One of many strong grapplers hailing from Dagestan, Ramazan Emeev (20-5) has not found it as easy as he expected in the UFC. He started well with two unanimous decisions – Sam Alvey (2017) at middleweight and Stefan Sekulic (2018) down at welterweight. He then suffered his first loss in eight fights dropping a unanimous decision against Rocco Martin (2019), responded with two decision wins over Niklas Stolze (2020) and David Zawada (2021) but he is coming off another loss and split decision against Danny Roberts (2021).
PREDICTION
On paper, this is a classic striker vs grappler match-up. Emeev will no doubt try stick to his strengths and enforce his wrestling here and the sooner the better as Maddalena is one of the most exciting strikers we have seen in a while.
His boxing is simply phenomenal and his leg kicks are crippling. Attacking the legs of a top wrestler is usually risky although Maddalena will look at the Martin fight and be confident he can disable the Russian quickly.
If Emeev can land an early takedown, he can earn enough control to steal the round, but we expect the Aussie to defend the takedowns and light Emeev up on the feet to announce himself as the new contender on the block. It may just be a question of whether Emeev’s durability will drag this to the bell.
Prediction: Maddalena via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
SEUNG WOO CHOI VS JOSHUA CULIBAO
Seung Woo Choi’s (10-4) future was not looking rosy after losing his first two UFC fights. He had a very tough debut inevitably getting ragdolled by Movsar Evloev (2019) and he went on to get submitted in his next fight against Gavin Tucker only three months later. He bounced back with three quality wins earning unanimous decisions over Suman Mokhtarian (2019) and Youssef Zalal (2021) before knocking out Julian Erosa (2021) collecting a ‘Performance of the Night’ bonus in the process. However, his momentum was abruptly halted in October last year getting submitted by Alex Caceres.
Joshua Culibao’s (9-1-1) only loss came on his UFC debut, but he stepped up to lightweight on short notice to take on the longest 155er on the roster in Jalin Turner (2020). He got TKO’d in the second round and then fought to an entertaining draw with Charles Jourdain (2020) back down at featherweight. He lost that winning feeling since the UFC but got back to old ways in May last year earning a unanimous decision over Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
PREDICTION
This should be an exciting battle. They are both electric strikers and we expect the majority of this to remain on the feet with either fighter threatening the takedown.
Caceres exposed some holes in Choi’s grappling game, so if the Korean finds some success on the feet, expect Culibao to shoot in. The more the Aussie mixes his attacks up, the more chance he has in winning.
Choi is a beast on the feet as a Muay Thai national champion and with his power advantage, he is capable of putting Culibao to sleep. He also has the height and reach advantage so the longer this stays standing the more you have to back him.
This is bound to be a close fight especially if Culibao manages to take Choi down, but we are backing the Korean’s size and power to keep this on the feet and sway the judges with his striking.
Prediction: Choi via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Culibao to win
STEVE GARCIA VS HAYISAER MAHESHATE
Steve Garcia (12-4) has only fought once since February 2020 when Luis Pena welcomed him to the UFC to snap his four-fight win streak with a unanimous decision. He returned seven months later, took some early damage but rallied to knock Charlie Ontiveros out in the second round to gain some momentum back.
Now, he welcomes Maheshate Hayisaer (6-1) to the octagon for his debut. Since losing his pro debut in 2019, he racked up five wins under the the Wu Lin Feng banner including three knockouts. This earnt him a shot on the Contender Series where he earnt a unanimous decision against Achilles Estremadura (2021) to earn a spot on the roster.
PREDICTION
There is a fair amount of hype behind Maheshate and he will have a lot of support in Singapore. That said, prior to the Contender Series, he had not fought anyone with a positive record. The combined record of his first six opponents was 20-32. Estremadura was a good win however handing him his first loss, but the Chinese native still has everything to prove.
He is a quality striker and has a great test in Garcia. The American is also very aggressive and we expect both of them to land creating a fun scrap. Garcia also has a takedown in the locker and has more routes to victory. Combine that with his experience, we back him for the win, but Maheshate is worth a punt considering his power and the odds.
Prediction: Garcia via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Maheshate to win
JACOB MALKOUN VS BRENDAN ALLEN
Prior to the UFC Jacob Malkoun (6-1) was simply known as Robert Whittaker’s training partner. Big things were still expected from him and the UFC gave him a chance just four fights into his pro career. However, his UFC debut could not have gone worse getting absolutely iced by Phil Hawes (2020) in 18 seconds. Since then, he has had two more tough match-ups, but has displayed a lot of character and determination earning unanimous decisions over Abdul Razak Alhassan (2021) and AJ Dobson (2022).
Brendan Allen (18-5) would be threatening the rankings by now if it was not for a couple setbacks. In his first three UFC fights he submitted Kevin Holland (2019), TKO’d Tom Breese (2020) and outpointed Kyle Daukaus (2020). He then ran into Sean Strickland who snapped the seven-fight win streak with a knockout. Allen responded with a submission over Karl Roberson (2021) and decision over Punahele Soriano (2021). However, he then suffered a shock knockout against Chris Curtis to derail his momentum again. However, he pounced on the opportunity to gain some back by stepping up to light heavyweight on short notice to submit Sam Alvey back in February.
PREDICTION
This is an interesting match-up as Allen is also a grappler by trade with exceptional jiu-jitsu. His striking also continues to improve which will be crucial here. Malkoun is more one dimensional with a wrestling heavy approach and we expect him to try and leverage those skills to subdue Allen for three rounds.
Allen is not used to opponents trying to take him down so it will be very interesting to see how he approaches this whether he will back his submission skills off his back or try and keep the fight on the feet to unleash his striking.
If this remains a stand-up battle, Allen will win. If Malkoun can take him down, it will be a fascinating battle between his wrestling control and Allen’s jiu-jitsu. We can see the Aussie shutting Allen down grinding out a decision, but we can also see Allen finding a finish or conducting the fight for the majority of three rounds.
Allen is a big underdog, so he is well worth a punt, and we feel he has the size, technique and experience to avoid getting pinned on his back for long enough to sway the judges with his striking.
Prediction: Allen via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Allen to win
KYUNG-HO KANG VS BATGEREL DANAA
Kyung-Ho Kang (17-9(1)) appears for the first time this year and is desperate to get back in the win column. His last win was in December 2018 when he scraped past Liu Pingyuan in a split decision. That win capped off a brilliant year following on from submitting Teruto Ishihara and earning another split decision over Brandon Davis. However, he did not return for almost a year when he took on Rani Yahya at UFC Fight Night 198 losing a unanimous decision and all his momentum.
He was originally scheduled to fight Saimon Oliveira, but the Brazilian pulled out opening the door for Batgerel Danaa (12-3). He is also coming off a loss which was only three months ago and it was a brutal one eating Chris Gutierrez’s spinning backfist in the second round. That loss came after three impressive knockouts on the bounce over Guido Cannetti (2020), Kevin Natividad (2021) and Davis (2021).
PREDICTION
Returning off a knockout after three months is always a worry especially taking the fight on relatively short notice. The fact that Kang does not possess much threat on the feet may have swayed Danaa’s decision to fill in for Oliveira, but he still has to be prepared for a scrap.
Kang’s bread and butter is his grappling, but he can strike and Danaa has to respect that despite his advantage on the feet. The Mongolian native will be giving up three inches in height and two in height, but he just needs to land once to put Kang in serious trouble.
Danaa is a better striker and he must be confident he can knock Kang out by accepting the fight so quickly after his loss. If he gets taken down early, it will be a long night for him. So, an early knockout for Danaa or a grinding decision for Kang is most likely here but it is tough to call.