UFC Fight Night 206 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 206? Sunday 22nd May, 2022 - 00:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 206? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 206? Click here for the tickets at the O2 Arena
What channel is UFC Fight Night 206 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 206? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
HOLLY HOLM VS KETLEN VIEIRA
Holly Holm (14-5) walks out for her seventh UFC main event which is more than any female fighter and she hopes more is yet to come in the form of a sixth title fight. She lost her last five attempts which were to Miesha Tate (2016), Germaine de Randamie (2017 – featherweight), Cris Cyborg (2017 - featherweight) and Amanda Nunes (2019). During that spell she went 2-5 and it seemed she had hit her ceiling, but after the devastating knockout loss to Nunes, she has strung together two classy unanimous decision wins together over Raquel Pennington (2020) and Irene Aldana (2020).
She now takes on the next up and comer Ketlen Vieira (12-2) who is coming off the biggest win of her career in earning a unanimous decision over Miesha Tate (2021). It was Tate’s second fight in five years coming out of retirement and she is well past her prime, but the biggest name on the Brazilian’s record. She is 2-2 in her last four now with Aldana (2019) knocking her out and Yana Kunitskaya (2021) outpointing her to derail her momentum. Now, a win over the former bantamweight champion will give her the massive push she needs.
PREDICTION
Holm has the clear advantage when it comes to experience and striking. Vieira has the advantage when it comes to grappling as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Judo.
That said, we expect a lot of stand-up here as Vieira loves to strike herself. She is 10 years younger at 30 years of age and has also been more active as Holm has not fought since October 2020 dealing with injuries so Vieira should look for an aggressive start.
She cannot win this by standing for five rounds. Holm is made for them with exceptional cardio and fighting style. She is incredibly illusive with the best movement in the division, and we expect her to dictate the tempo, peppering from range and a variety of angles to frustrate Vieira.
So, Vieira has to mix in her grappling as much as possible. If she can drag Holm to the ground, she can keep her there and work on a submission. However, Holm’s distance control is exceptional and is also very strong in the clinch, so the Brazilian will end up expelling more energy making her an easier target on the feet.
Despite the injuries and time catching up with her, we expect a typical Holm performance - managing the distance, tagging Vieira with a variety of jabs, combinations and kicks to the legs and head while fending off the takedowns attempts to gradually deplete the Brazilian and walk away with a decision.
Prediction: Holm via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
SANTIAGO PONZINIBBIO VS MICHEL PEREIRA
It is fair to say Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-5) has not found octagon life as easy as before his hiatus. His burying of Neil Magny capped a seven-fight win streak in 2018. He returned over two years later with a tough match-up against Li Jingliang who clipped him clean to secure a first-round knockout. He then duked it out in a war with Miguel Baeza five months later clinching the decision, but then went on to lose another hard-fought split decision to Geoff Neal (2021).
Dare we say the crazy showboating Michel Pereira (27-11(2)) has retired. He will always have that spark but after getting humbled by Tristan Connelly (2019) and mindlessly getting disqualified in his fight with Diego Sanchez (2020) he has gone on to string four exceptional wins against top talents. He submitted Zelim Imadaev (2020) and earnt measured unanimous decisions over Khaos Williams (2020), Niko Price (2021) and Andre Fialho (2022)
PREDICTION
What a fight this is. Pereira looks like he is putting everything together now and if he continues on the same trajectory, he will break the top 10. This is a big jump in competition and even though Ponzinibbio had that long layoff and has lost two of his last three, he is getting back to his best.
He has the advantage when it comes to experience and he is one of the best strikers in the division, but the first couple rounds will be a back-and-forth battle. Ponzinibbio has better hands and is more technical, but Pereira has the X-factor where he has the unorthodox movement to create angles and land devastating blows from a distance with flying attacks.
Within striking range, Ponzinibbio will win the exchanges attacking the whole body with 1-2's down the pipe and kicks to the legs and body of Pereira. If the Brazilian remains patient and utilizes his movement to circle and time his attacks from range, he can cause more damage.
However, if this goes past the second round, Pereira will begin to fatigue. He has worked hard on his cardio, but Ponzinibbio has proven to finish strong and fight hard to the bell and this is where we think he will win the fight.
Pereira will be super dangerous, especially in the first round, but if he remains the favourite, Ponzinibbio is the smart pick.
Prediction: Ponzinibbio via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ponzinibbio via Decision
CHIDI NJOKUANI VS DUSKO TODOROVIC
Chidi Njokuani (12-2) had a tough assignment for a UFC debut in the durable form of Marc-Andre Barriault back in February. The Canadian had never been knocked out before, but Njokuani took just 16 seconds to bury him. That made it three in a row after knocking out Cristhian Torres (2020) for LFA and Mario Filipe de Sousa on the Contender Series – the perfect way to bounce back from two losses.
Dusko Todorovic (11-2) also had a dream debut knocking out Dequan Townsend (2020) to extend his unbeaten record to 10-0. Soon after, he realized there is a different level in the UFC getting a taste of his medicine suffering a first-round knockout to Punahele Soriano (2021) and then losing a unanimous decision to Gregory Rodrigues (2021). However, he has responded in the only way he knows how by finishing Maki Pitolo (2021) with vicious ground-and-pound.
PREDICTION
This is could be absolute fireworks. Njokuani is in the form of his life knocking people out for fun and Todorovic hunts the knockout or submission in every fight.
On paper, the Serb has it all as ferocious striker and grappler as a black belt in taekwondo and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, he has some glaring holes in his game, in particular his defence. There are question marks over his durability which is not ideal when you lower your hands to defend with his face.
If he calls upon his grappling, we could easily see him take Njokuani down, and rain down the ground-and-pound to find a knockout or open-up a submission.
However, we feel his ego will make his slug it out with Njokuani which will most likely end with him getting clipped clean from range to put the lights out.
Prediction: Njokuani via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Todorovic to win
ERYK ANDERS VS JUN YONG PARK
Eryk Anders’ (14-6 (1)) patchy form continues as he comes off a dominant loss. It was a very tough match-up to be fair taking on the underrated Jiu-jitsu wizard Andre Muniz (2021) who submitted him in the first round. That came after his rematch with Darren Stewart (2021) which he won via unanimous decision with their first bout ending in a ‘no contest’ due to landing an illegal knee when he was dominating the fight. Those results have taken his UFC record to 6-6 (1).
Jun Yong Park (13-5) is also coming off a devastating loss. After getting submitted on his UFC debut by Anthony Hernandez (2019) he racked up three decent wins and decisions over Marc-Andre Barriault (2019), John Phillips (2020) and Tafon Nchukwi (2021) before putting on a ‘Fight of the Night’ performance with Gregory Rodrigues (2021) which unfortunately for Park, ended in his first knockout loss.
PREDICTION
Both these guys are very well-rounded. Park is more consistent and technical whereas Anders has that explosive power from his Football background which makes him an obvious knockout threat especially with his weapon of a left hand.
We were surprised to see Park get slept like he did against Rodrigues as he is very durable so now there will be more question marks as to whether he can absorb Anders’ strikes. The Korean can hold his own on the feet and should be able to outland Anders, but he has to avoid his missiles for three rounds.
So, we expect Park to grapple to dictate the fight and subdue ‘Ya Boi’. Anders will be at his most dangerous in the first round and if he starts aggressive, we can see him finding a knockout. He will also look very powerful in the clinch and will be able to fend off a few takedown attempts, but as the fight goes on, Park will have more success with his grappling and on the feet with his output.
Anders is a great shout as the underdog, but we feel Park will grind out a decision with the help of his grappling.
Prediction: Park via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Anders to win
POLYANA VIANA VS TABATHA RICCI
After six UFC fights, Polyana Viana (12-4) is getting her first streak going which are hard to come by in the competitive strawweight division. She submitted Maia Stevenson (2018) on debut but went on a three-fight skid with losses to JJ Aldrich (2018), Hannah Cifers (2019) and Veronica Macedo (2019). However, she has bounced back in style with two more submissions over Emily Whitmire (2020) and Mallory Martin (2021).
Tabatha Ricci (6-1) received a baptism of fire on her UFC debut last year. She was feeling confident sitting proudly on her 5-0 record and stepped up on short notice to fight one of the most dangerous strikers in the division in Manon Fiorot. She got TKO’d in the second round but responded with a unanimous decision over Maria Oliveira four months later.
PREDICTION
These two kick off the main card for more reasons than just their skill set. They are both very good grapplers with Ricci holding black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo. Viana is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but already has eight submissions so it would be a spectacle to see these two duke it out on the mat.
Their striking still needs improvement. Ricci is raw and aggressive, but if she launces herself into the pocket, Viana should be able to pick her apart especially with a six-inch reach advantage. We can see large portions of this fight being a striking battle which will not be great viewing, so let’s hope to see them put their strengths on display.
Any grappling exchanges will be fiercely competitive with both trading positions. We would back Ricci to look better in the first round, but as the fight goes on, we would favour Viana’s experience, weight and length to finish stronger.
A submission is possible either way, especially late in the fight and if this goes the distance, a decision could easily fall to either fighter with Viana being the smart bet as the underdog.
Prediction: Viana via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Viana via Decision
JAILTON ALMEIDA VS PARKER PORTER
Jailton Almeida (15-2) was expected to fight Maxim Grishin at light heavyweight which would have been a great fight but unfortunately Grishin dropped out which has created a very interesting match-up. He now moves up to heavyweight and why not after winning 10 straight fights (five knockouts and five submissions) including his knockout of Danilo Marques (2022) on debut.
Parker Porter (12-6) is on a three-fight win streak which is healthy in the heavyweight division although, they were not to the best competition. He lost his debut against Chris Daukaus (2020) which was a tough match-up getting knocked out in the first round. However, he has responded with three rare decisions over Josh Parisian (2020), Chase Sherman (2021) and Alan Baudot (2022).
PREDICTION
Parker is a genuine heavyweight who hovers around the 265 lb limit so the obvious question here is whether Almeida has the skill to counter the weight difference. He is technically better everywhere with a clear speed advantage. He is a very powerful striker with thunderous leg kicks and a super slick submission game.
Porter is a quick heavyweight and a decent grappler himself, but he will have to simply use his weight to subdue the grappling threat and absorb the shots, but will that be enough?
Porter may be able to eat a few bombs from Almeida thus draining the gas tank however, the Brazilian has a lot of grappling experience against bigger men and we feel he is going to shoot in early and has the skill to find a submission.
That said, considering the astronomical odds and the weight advantage, Porter holds all of the value.
Prediction: Almeida via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Porter to win
JOSEPH HOLMES VS ALEN AMEDOVSKI
Joseph Holmes (7-2) has crashed back down to earth after losing his UFC debut back in January. He was flying high on a seven-fight win streak after submitting Shonte Barnes (2021) on the Contender Series and knocking out Jhonoven Pati (2021) on Fury FC – Lookin’ For a Fight to confirm his place on the roster in front of Dana White. He was given a good match-up for his debut as well in Jamie Pickett but lost a disappointing unanimous decision.
Alen Amedovski (8-2) experienced the same crash back in 2019 although he had a tougher debut. He was paired with the seasoned Krzysztof Jotko and lost a unanimous decision after knocking out all eight of his previous opponents including Will Fluery (2018) and Ibrahim Mane (2018) for Bellator. He then got handed John Phillips (2019) to get back on track but got knocked out himself in the first round, so another loss could be curtains to his UFC tenure.
PREDICTION
Alen Amedovski has not fought since his devastating knockout loss serving a ban for having THC in the system and has a lot of pressure on him to salvage a UFC career. We were expecting more from him in his two UFC fights especially against Phillips. His knockout power is plain to see, but who knows how he will show up this weekend especially with a long lay-off.
He will be giving up six inches in reach and six in height to Holmes. The American did look good in his first round with Pickett which makes this interesting as they are both strongest in the first five minutes and we could see fireworks from the bell.
On paper, Holmes should take this leveraging his reach to stay out of Amedovski’s range and mixing in grappling to subdue Amedovski. We are backing him to do enough of that and we can even see a knockout, but an Amedovski knockout as the underdog is a smarter pick.
Prediction: Holmes via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Amedovski via KO/TKO
OMAR MORALES VS UROS MEDIC
When Omar Morales (11-2) earnt a unanimous decision over Gabriel Benitez (2020) to go 10-0 we thought we could be looking at a future contender. However, the UFC then paired him with Giga Chikadze (2020) down at featherweight to hand him his first loss in a unanimous decision. He bounced back in a kinder match up in Shane Young (2021) with another decision to set his eyes back on the rankings but suffered a big setback in his last fight with Jonathan Pearce (2021) dropping down to 145 lbs again to get submitted in the second round.
Uros Medic (7-1) has been hit by a similar slap of reality. He was 6-0 when he made his UFC debut coming off a knockout over Mikey Gonzalez (2020) on the Contender Series. He then proceeded to notch his fifth knockout on debut clapping Aalon Cruz (2021). These wins made him full to the brim with confidence taking of Jalin Turner (2021) but he got submitted in the first round to burst the bubble.
PREDICTION
They are at an important crossroads early on in their UFC career and importantly for Morales, he is back at lightweight where he is undefeated. They are both strikers by trade with Morales being more technical and defensively sound whereas Medic is more aggressive leaving little behind.
Medic is the bigger man which may pay dividends if they decide to grapple. Medic has the power to cause Morales problems, but only if he can pierce the defence and pace himself over three rounds.
This is very tough to call, and we are leaning towards a Morales decision as long as he weathers the early storm.
Prediction: Morales via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Medic via KO/TKO
VINCE MORALES VS JONATHAN MARTINEZ
After a very tough start to his UFC career, Vince Morales (11-5) is picking up some steam after two quality wins. He lost to top contender Song Yadong (2018) on debut and responded with a win over Aiemann Zahabi (2019) but went on to lose a unanimous decision to Benito Lopez (2019) and got crippled and TKO’d by Chris Gutierrez (2020). However, he has built some momentum after outpointing Drako Rodriguez (2021) and pulling off a beautiful knockout over Louis Smolka (2021).
Jonathan Martinez (15-4) has also struggled for consistency. He is 6-3 in the UFC and when he has been on, he has looked exceptional, but his losses have been disappointing. He has lost decisions to Andre Soukhamthath (2018) and Andre Ewell (2020) who he should beat today. Floating between bantamweight and featherweight has not helped his consistency, but he has two good wins at 145 lbs including Thomas Almeida (2020) and most recently Alejandro Perez back in February this year.
PREDICTION
This is at bantamweight, so hopefully Martinez has a smooth weight cut and displays the best version of himself. He is an extremely dangerous and technical striker and Morales also prefers to stand and bang so we expect a very fun fight and have it down as the potential 'Fight of the Night'.
Morales has looked good in his last two fights, but he is taking on a higher calibre of striker. The leg kicks he absorbed from Gutierrez is a worry. They led to the TKO and Martinez also has vicious leg kicks and he just needs to land a few to disable Morales.
We expect this to remain on the feet for as long as it lasts. Morales is more composed and is the value bet as the underdog but Martinez's technique and power sway it for us.
Prediction: Martinez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Morales to win
SAM HUGHES VS ELISE REED
Sam Hughes (6-4) has clung on to her UFC career after a majority decision over Istela Nunes last month. We finally saw glimpses of what got her to the octagon, and it was a huge win for her after losing her first three UFC fights. For her debut, she stepped up on short notice to meet the best version of Tecia Torres (2020) we have seen who earnt her first ever TKO and then went on to lose decisions to Loma Lookboonmee (2021) and Luana Pinheiro (2021).
Elise Reed (5-1) is also coming off her first UFC win. She suffered the first loss of her career on her debut in July last year getting outmuscled and TKO’d by Sijara Eubanks. She then stepped down to her natural weight class at strawweight and scraped past Cory McKenna in a split decision back in March.
PREDICTION
The majority of this should be a fast-paced scrap, mainly on the feet with Hughes initiating the grappling. We expect her to start trading on the feet but look for the takedown by the first round.
As we saw in the McKenna fight, Reed has excellent takedown defence, and she has the skill to defend the attempts of Hughes. If that discourages her and forces a striking battle, then Reed should cruise a decision.
If Hughes is stubborn and relies on her cardio to relentlessly shoot in or earns some control time in the clinch, she can can grind out a decision herself. We expect Reed to create enough space over the three rounds to display her advantage on the feet and earn a decision.