UFC on ESPN 37 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 37? Sunday 19th June, 2022 - 12:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 37? Moody Center, Austin, Texas (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 37? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC on ESPN 37 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 37? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CALVIN KATTAR VS JOSH EMMETT
Calvin Kattar (23-5) headlines his fourth card in a row. He is not in the title picture after getting absolutely schooled by Max Holloway (2021) but he is one of the most exciting fighters on the roster and is always a welcome sight on the headliner spot. That loss came after two superb wins which were in response to a unanimous decision loss to Zabit Magomedsharipov (2019). He was distorting Jeremy Stephens’ (2020) face before wrecking the veteran with a sumptuous elbow followed by a classy unanimous decision over Dan Ige (2020). He then ran into the other Hawaiian, but he regained his confidence with another brilliant unanimous decision, this time as the underdog derailing the prospect Giga Chikadze (2022).
Josh Emmett’s (17-2) confidence has never been higher as he sits on a four-fight win streak. His last loss was that brutal assault from Stephens (2018) which included an illegal knee fracturing Emmett’s orbital bone. He returned a year later with a fire in his belly and proceeded to knock out Michael Johnson (2019) and Mirsad Bektic (2019) before unanimous decisions over Shane Burgos (2020) and Dan Ige (2021).
PREDICTION
These two are two of the most exciting featherweight strikers which is a statement considering the division is littered with some of the best strikers in the world. Their boxing is top tier and we give Kattar the edge when it comes to technique and Emmett the edge when it comes to power. That said, they are both technical and powerful.
This has ‘Fight of the Night’ written all over it and we feel Kattar will come out on top. Everything can change if Emmett lands clean, but Kattar is still incredibly durable. He also has the advantage when it comes to five-round experience. His last three fights have gone 25 minutes whereas Emmett has only gone five rounds once in his career which was back in 2014 on the local scene.
Emmett’s game plan is unlikely to consist of pacing himself to win a decision. He is explosive and throws everything into his shots which is not sustainable over five rounds. Kattar’s style is more suitable keeping up a solid pace while maintaining his power.
So, expect a bright start from Emmett where he will look extremely dangerous for three rounds. We can see him finding an early knockout, but in all likelihood, Kattar’s chin and cardio will enable him to weather the storm and wear Emmett down with violence to earn a decision at least.
Prediction: Kattar via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DONALD CERRONE VS JOE LAUZON
Donald Cerrone’s (36-16(2)) activity has finally caught up with him without a win in his last six fights. It does not help the fact that he has fought absolute killers, and sadly the fan may be hanging up the cowboy hat after this fight. His last win was a unanimous decision over Al Iaquinta (2019) and has since got TKO’d by Tony Ferguson (2019), Justin Gaethje (2019) and Conor McGregor (2020) before losing a unanimous decision to Anthony Pettis (2020). He then fought to a draw with Niko Price (2020 – later overturned to a ‘no contest’) and is coming off arguably his worst loss – another first round knockout courtesy of Alex Morono (2021).
He takes on a fellow veteran well past his prime in Joe Lauzon (28-15). He has been duking it out with lightweight monsters for over 16 years, so his UFC record is an inevitably unflattering one of 15-12. He has not fought since October 2019 when he turned back the clock to knock out Jonathan Pearce in the first round which came after three straight losses – a majority decision to Stevie Ray (2017) and two TKO’s to Clay Guida (2017) and Chris Gruetzemacher.
PREDICTION
This is odd matchmaking, but we are here for it and it has been moved to this card after food poisoning forced Cerrone off the UFC 274 card. Neither of them have anything to prove and with a combined, colossal 33 post-fight bonuses in the book (Cerrone 18, Lauzon 15) this will be a fun scrap.
They do not have the same pop in their strikes or the same tenacity on the mat, but we are safe in the knowledge they will hunt the finish. Throwing form out the window, Cerrone should take this all day. He is a much better striker and as a fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, he can tangle with the submission wizard.
We expect the majority of this to remain on the feet where Cerrone’s class will shine through. Lauzon is still durable, but there is only so many kicks he will be able to absorb from Cerrone. His kickboxing and Muay Thai is still at a very high level and we expect him to get the knockout.
Prediction: Cerrone via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
KEVIN HOLLAND VS TIM MEANS
2020 could not have gone much better for Kevin Holland (22-7(1)) bagging a record tying five wins in the calendar however, he could not keep up the momentum in 2021. Derek Brunson dominated him on the mat earning a unanimous decision and then Marvin Vettori followed suit less than a month later. He then got submitted by Kyle Daukaus but the bout was fairly ruled a ‘no contest’ as the finished stemmed from a bad clash of heads. However, he wiped 2021 off his shoulders and has already started this year with a bang knocking out Alex Oliveira announcing himself into the welterweight division.
The old stalwart Tim Means (32-12-1(1))has only fought once since November 2020 but he is riding a solid three-fight win streak – all unanimous decisions. He responded to his submission loss to Daniel Rodriguez (2020) with a classy showing against Laureano Staropoli (2020) going on to add Mike Perry (2020) and Nicolas Dalby (2021) to the win column.
PREDICTION
It is always exciting to see Holland in action and even more so at 170 lbs. He has all the talent and one of the longest reaches in the division, but the weight and power he gives up at 185 lbs showed against anyone who could grapple.
Means is a striker by trade, but he has the wrestling to attack Holland’s holes. It is just a question of whether he decides to try and take him down. Holland has been working hard on his takedown defence and Means does not carry the same power and technique as the likes of of Brunson and Vettori so he will be very confident of keeping this on the feet and having his way with the veteran.
Means is as seasoned as it gets, and he will also be confident in a stand-up battle. However, the more space there is, the more you have to back Holland. He will be boasting a significant six-inch reach advantage and combine that with his speed and power, he could even land the knockout.
Means’ experience and durability could easily drag this to the bell, but a Holland knockout is well worth a punt.
Prediction: Holland via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Holland via KO/TKO
JOAQUIN BUCKLEY VS ALBERT DURAEV
Joaquin Buckley (14-4) has regained some momentum after Alessio Di Chirico gave him a taste of his own medicine in January last year. Buckley was coming off two knockouts – one that will appear in every top 10 knockout reel going against Impa Kasanganay (2020) and then Jordan Wright (2020). A couple months later, the Italian served up his own beautiful head kick to knock Buckley out, but he showed a lot of character eight months later knocking out Antonio Arroyo and now he is coming off a much harder fought three rounds with Abdul Razak Alhassan (2022) doing enough to earn the split decision.
We wish Albert Duraev (15-3) was more active as he is sitting on a 10-fight win streak and we are still not sure how high his ceiling is. Eight of those wins came under the ACB banner which included two knockouts and four submissions. That earnt him an audition on the Contender Series in September last year which he passed with flying colours cranking Caio Bitencourt’s neck into submission in the first round. He then made his debut a month later earning a unanimous decision over Roman Kopylov.
PREDICTION
Duraev is desperate for more cage time, but his last two fights are his only bouts since 2018. That is usually a worry, but he can get away with it with his style. He enforces a suffocating pressure, taking the fight to the mat as soon as possible, closing any distance, smothering his opponents until they wilt from strikes or submissions.
If Buckley can keep the fight on the feet, Duraev’s rustiness will show as he will struggle with Buckley’s timing and the American only needs one strike to close the show. As we have seen, Buckley has a variety of fight-ending strikes so we can fully expect the Russian to try and get the fight to the canvas as soon as possible to avoid getting clipped.
Buckley can wrestle but worryingly, he only has a 40% takedown defence which were mainly Alhassan’s attempts. Unless he can catch Duraev early, he is going to have a miserable night and will do well to survive the pressure cooker.
Prediction: Duraev via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Buckley via KO/TKO
DAMIR ISMAGULOV VS GURAM KUTATELADZE
Damir Ismagulov (20-1) is riding a 15-fight win streak and has only fought once since August 2019 – unacceptable. That fight was a unanimous decision win over Rafael Alves over a year ago which made it four unanimous decision wins out of his four UFC caps. After defending the M-1 lightweight championship a couple times back in 2018, he added Alex Gorgees (2018) then Joel Alvarez (2019) and Thiago Moises (2019) to the dub column which continue to age well. Now, he just needs to stay in that octagon and show the fans what he is capable of.
Guram Kutateladze (12-2) is flying completely under the radar in the lightweight division. That is because he has only had one fight in the UFC, but he has all the skills to climb his way up the packed rankings. He is on a healthy win streak himself with nine and after his comeback knockout over Felipe Silva (2019) for Brave CF he got the call up to make his debut. He met one of the hottest prospects in Europe - Mateusz Gamrot and managed to scrape a split decision win to hand the Pole his first loss.
PREDICTION
Ismagulov has been inactive with his last fight being over a year ago, but Kutateladze has not fought since October 2020. It is going to be very interesting to see how they look and whether there is any rustiness.
One thing we can be sure about is that they will bring an elite level of martial arts to the table. Ismagulov is right at the top of the food chain when it comes to striking. He has speed, power with excellent timing and distance control. Kutateladze is also a devastating striker with ferocious power and they can both grapple.
So, this is bound to be extremely competitive with the majority of the fight remaining of the feet. Ismagulov is the favourite and on paper we can see why. He has the experience, reach and technique to land more volume, but the Georgian has the tools to cause the upset.
He possesses thunderous kicks and if he can land to the legs and body of the Russian early, he can slow him down and pick up momentum. This is tough to call, and we are leaning slightly towards Ismagulov winning a close decision, but all the value is on Kutateladze.
Prediction: Ismagulov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Kutateladze to win
JULIAN MARQUEZ VS GREGORY RODRIGUES
After exploding onto the UFC scene, a split decision loss and time off on the sidelines hushed the Julian Marquez (9-2) hype. He flatlined Phil Hawes (2017) with a monstrous head kick on the Contender Series and followed that up by submitting Darren Stewart (2017) on debut. He then tore his lat in the loss to Alessio Di Chirico (2018) which forced him out for nearly three years requiring a couple surgeries. He eventually returned in February last year and got back to old ways by submitting Maki Pitolo (2021) and Sam Alvey (2021).
He was originally scheduled to fight Wellington Turman who got injured opening the door for Gregory Rodrigues (11-4) to step in. Robocop’s momentum got halted in his last fight with his impressive four-fight win streak coming to an end. He welcomed prospect Armen Petrosyan to the UFC but lost a split decision. This came after two knockouts for LFA over Josh Fremd and Al Matavao in 2021 and collected his two UFC wins the same year outpointing Dusko Todorovic and knocking out Jun Yong Park.
PREDICTION
This is arguably a tougher match up for Marquez. Like Turman, Rodrigues is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. However, he is more dangerous on the feet with knockout power. Despite Marquez’s four blockbuster finishes in the UFC including the one on the Contender Series, he has not impressed a great deal.
He has been in trouble against lesser opponents although the same can be said for Rodrigues. So, this could easily boil down to cardio and heart. We expect them both to mix in grappling trading positions while aggressively hunting the finish. Initially on the feet and will instinctively pounce on a submission if they rock each other.
So, a finish either way is very likely and for that reason the value is with Marquez as the underdog especially as Rodrigues’ cardio is suspect and he absorbs a lot of damage. However, we just have a feeling the Brazilian will catch him.
Prediction: Rodrigues via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Marquez to win
ADRIAN YANEZ VS TONY KELLEY
Adrian Yanez (15-3) continues to rise the ranks and put heat on his prospect status. The bantamweight division is incredibly stacked, but if he continues his form, he will be among the other beasts in the top 10. He kicked off his UFC campaign with three straight knockouts not including one on the Contender series over Brady Huang (2020). He smoked Victor Rodriguez (2020) and then buried Gustavo Lopez (2021) and Randy Costa (2021) earning three ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses. He then followed that up with a ‘Fight of the Night’ with Davey Grant (2021) battling through adversity to take a split decision.
Tony Kelley (8-2) also boasts a knockout win over Costa which is by far his most impressive win. It was in December last year and before that he was not making any noise. He lost a unanimous decision to Kai Kamaka (2020) on his debut which aged badly as the Hawaiian went on to lose his next two and draw leading him to get cut from the UFC. Kelley then responded with a unanimous decision win over Ali AlQaisi (2020) to make it 2-1 in the UFC.
PREDICTION
Taking on Kelley off the back of a win over Davey makes little sense, but this is destined to be an exciting scrap. Kelley is a quality striker, and his aggressiveness could be key to causing the upset.
Yanez is one of the slickest strikers in the division with extremely crisp boxing. That said, he can be hit, and Kelley has the power to cause some serious problems. We can see Yanez suffering some adversity again, but his technique and timing will allow him counter and land more damage as the fight goes on.
He also has better cardio and we are firmly backing him to win the striking battle with Kelley’s durability dragging this to the bell.
Prediction: Yanez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
COURT MCGEE VS JEREMIAH WELLS
A lot of people though Court McGee (21-10) was done after losing five in six fights. The win was a unanimous decision over Alex Garcia (2018) but he went on to outpointed himself by Dhiego Lima (2019), Sean Brady (2019) and Carlos Condit (2020). He was fighting for his UFC career when he took on Claudio Silva (2021) and pulled a vintage performance out the bag with a unanimous decision. He then made it two in a row against Ramiz Brahimaj (2022) to pick up some unexpected momentum.
He now takes on the up-and-coming Jeremiah Wells (10-2-1). After starching Mumia Abu Dey-Ali (2019) and then submitting Marco Smallman (2019) for CFFC, he got the call-up to the big leagues. He had three debut fights fall through and eventually made his debut nearly two yers on from his last fight against another UFC veteran in Warlley Alves (2021). He shook off any rust immediately and knocked Alves out in the second round. He then followed that up with a first-round submission over Mike Mathetha (2022).
PREDICTION
Wells is on fire right now, full of confidence and has a great opportunity to add another name to the record. He is a natural finisher with four knockouts and submissions, but he has to prepare to a hard three rounds as McGee has proven time and time again that he will not go away.
The veteran has a limited skill set, but his cardio and durability is off the chain. We all know what to expect from him now and that will be to simply chain takedowns together and suffocate Wells with his pressure.
Wells is a powerhouse and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jiu, so he will make McGee work very hard, but we can see the veteran causing the upset by subduing him for three rounds.
Considering only one of McGee’s last 17 fights have not gone to a decision which was a knockout loss to Santiago Ponzinnibio in 2016, this is going to a decision which has McGee’s name on it.
Prediction: McGee via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: McGee via Decision
PHIL HAWES VS DERON WINN
The UFC came calling for Phil Hawes (11-2) after four first-round finishes. He TKO’d Michael Wilcox (Bellator), submitted Dominic Schober, knocked out Yuri Fraga (both Brave CF) and the blasted Khadzhimurat Bestaev on the Contender Series. He continued that form on his debut by starching Jacob Malkoun and then went on to see the bell for the first time in his career. He earnt a majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov in February and then earnt a more convincing unanimous decision over Kyle Daukaus three months later. He was on fire, but after this bout was scrapped for the second time, he eventually accepted a fight with newcomer Chris Curtis who caused a royal upset by knocking Hawes out in the first round derailing all his momentum.
Deron Winn (7-2) was lined up for Hawes at UFC Vegas 31 but suffered a separated rib and torn cartilage forcing him off the card. It was rescheduled for UFC Vegas 39 but he pulled out again, this time the day before the event. Now he is finally ready and coming off a unanimous decision win where he made a mockery of Antonio Arroyo’s cardio. That win prevented a three-fight skid losing a split decision to Darren Stewart in 2019 and getting submitted by Gerald Meerschaert five months later.
PREDICTION
As usual, Winn gives up a significant height and reach advantage because he cannot go on a diet. Hawes will have seven inches in reach and six in height on Winn and he will know what to expect.
Winn will start striking, then inevitably close the distance and look for a takedown. Despite his size, he is one of the best technical wrestlers in the division. Hawes is a quality MMA wrestler, but he will need all those skills to defend and keep the fight on the feet.
If he succeeds, he will light Winn up and he has the power to finish him with a variety of strikes. There was a question mark over his cardio, but it held up in his last couple fights.
So, this all depends on Hawes’ takedown defence. He has never been taken down in the UFC, but Daukaus is the only fighter who has attempted. We can certainly see Winn getting Hawes down, but we are backing the powerhouse to keep the fight standing long enough to get the job done.
Prediction: Hawes via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Winn via Decision
ROMAN DOLIDZE VS KYLE DAUKAUS
After numerous dropouts and rescheduling, this exciting match-up is finally on. Roman Dolidze (9-1) suffered the first loss of his career last year in March dropping a unanimous decision to Trevin Giles which was his debut at middleweight. He has remained in the division and responded well with a solid unanimous decision over Laureano Staropoli three months later. Three cancelled fights later, he is finally back to rebuild some momentum.
Before having three bouts fall through himself including the one with the Georgian, Kyle Daukaus (10-2(1)) was getting ready for his rematch with Kevin Holland which ended very controversially back in November. He submitted him but it came after a clash of heads knocked Holland out briefly and it was eventually ruled a ‘no contest’. Fortunately, Daukaus has managed to get a fight in since after Jamie Pickett filled in for Julian Marquez at UFC Vegas 48 where he collected the ninth submission win of his career.
PREDICTION
Thankfully the matchmakers persisted with this bout as it great match-up and it will be a fascinating battle. They are both very talented grapplers and submission artists, but their striking has also come on leaps and bounds. Dolidze is the more decorated jiu-jitsu practitioner, but Daukaus has utilised his skills more in MMA with over 80% of his wins coming via submission.
That said, this fight will start on the feet where Dolidze will throw power shots with all limbs attacking the legs, body and head. Daukaus will not be deterred as he has the boxing and speed to cause the Georgian some serious problems.
However, Dolidze has the edge on the feet when it comes to his variety of offence, technique and power. This will force Daukaus to try and force the fight to the ground, but Dolidze has the strength to fend off the takedown attempts and if he does find himself on the mat, he has the jiu-jitsu to stay out of trouble.
Dolidze’s biggest weakness will be his cardio, but as we expect this to be a slow-paced fight, he should have enough in the third round to seal a decision and as he is the underdog, he is well worth backing.