UFC 274 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 274? Sunday 8th May, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 274? Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 274? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 274
What channel is UFC 274 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 274? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS JUSTIN GAETHJE
It has taken Charles Oliveira (32-8(1)) a hot minute to reach his prime, but here he is, 29 fights deep into his UFC career and making his second defence of the lightweight strap. He is on a 10-fight win streak which includes nine finishes. The decision was unsurprisingly against the zombie Tony Ferguson (2020) but resumed his killer ways by smoking Michael Chandler (2021) in the title fight with a majestic knockout which fittingly broke the record for the most finishes in the UFC with 17. He then made his first defence seven months later against Dustin Poirier (2021) and did not look like an underdog that night slipping onto Poirier’s back to cinch a ruthless rear-naked choke and the 20th submission of his career.
Justin Gaethje (23-3) also took a while to reach his prime which is mainly thanks to Trevor Wittman who has dovetailed a much-needed mental game into his arsenal. He has only lost once in his last six which was his first title fight against Khabib Nurmagomedov getting submitted in the second round. Leading up to that, he buried James Vick (2018), Edson Barboza (2019), Donald Cerrone (2019) and became the first man to TKO Tony Ferguson (2020). After the loss to Khabib he put on that unforgettable battle with Michael Chandler (2021) earning a rare decision to set up this deserved title shot.
PREDICTION
Oliveira has become a top-tier striker to compliment his jiu-jitsu and the technique and accuracy of his Muay Thai and boxing has become a thing of beauty. He can hang with anyone now, but he is taking on arguably the most dangerous striker in the division and Gaethje’s leg kicks and clubs for hands can completely change the course of the fight with just a few clean blows.
The only hole in Gaethje’s game is his jiu-jitsu and he is coming up against the most prolific submission artist in the UFC. His NCAA Division 1 wrestling has been enough to force striking contests besides Khabib and if it is not enough to prevent Oliveira taking him down, it will only be a matter of time before the Brazilian extends his record.
Gaethje will open up with his thunderous leg kicks to disable Oliveira while following up with ferocious hooks. The champ’s Muay Thai style will be crucial to keeping the weight off his front foot and countering down the pipe with his four-inch reach advantage. Oliveira will also be generous with his leg kicks and teep kicks down the middle to keep the distance.
We expect this to be a cerebral war. Gaethje has the power to cripple Oliveira with leg kicks and find a knockout blow early. Oliveira on the other hand has the technique to cause serious damage but a knockout will only be likely late in the fight. His best path to a finish is tying Gaethje up and he does not even need to get him on the ground to find a submission.
A finish is very likely here. Gaethje is expected to walk Oliveira who will have the confidence to exchange. Gaethje has the wrestling to fend off orthodox takedown attempts, so we expect Oliveira to be corked ready to counter to create a scramble to close the distance. There is value on a Gaethje knockout, but there will be less resistance to an Oliveira submission only needing the slightest of openings to pounce on the neck.
Prediction: Oliveira via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Gaethje via KO/TKO
ROSE NAMAJUNAS VS CARLA ESPARZA
The strawweight crown is back on the head of Rose Namajunas (11-4) as she walks out for her seventh title fight. She won and defended it against Joanna Jedrzejczyk (2017 and 2018) and then lost it after getting slammed by Jessica Andrade (2019). She had another rematch over a year later earning a tight split decision and by that time Weili Zhang was the champion and was lined up for Namajunas’ third shot at gold. Just like the first Jedrzejczyk fight, she pulled off a shock knockout in the first round. That led to yet another rematch where she just about defended the title with a split decision. Now, she walks out for the fifth rematch of her career.
Carla Esparza (18-6) took home the spoils first time around back in 2014 to claim the inaugural strawweight title and win The Ultimate Fighter. She out grappled Namajunas taking her down five times and eventually submitting her in the third round. She has gone 8-4 since and currently riding a five-win streak. She earnt typical decisions over Virna Jandiroba (2019), Alexa Grasso (2019), Michelle Waterson (2020) and Marina Rodriguez (2020) before pulling off a very rare TKO over Xiaonan Yan (2021) paving the way for her first title shot since losing the belt back in 2015 to Jedrzejczyk.
PREDICTION
A lot has changed since their first fight, and they have clearly improved tremendously. Namajunas has matured and harnessed her talent to become one of the best strikers we have seen in the division whereas Esparza is more of a one-trick pony, but that trick has elevated to another level.
The obvious question here is whether Namajunas can defend enough takedowns and be a threat off her back to prevent Esparza sticking in top position. We know exactly what to expect from Esparza and Namajunas will be working diligently on a game plan with Trevor Wittman.
Five rounds will suit the champ and she only needs a couple rounds of defending the takedowns and creating enough space to pick Esparza apart from range and break her will just like Jedrzejczyk did back in 2015. Her kicks are one of her most dangerous weapons, but we expect her to take a more of a boxing approach and utilize her footwork to stay out of takedown range for as long as possible.
We fully expect the best version of Esparza, and she is capable of snatching three rounds with her wrestling. However, if the best version of Namajunas shows up, she can make Esparza look like an amateur and the longer this stays on the feet, the more likely that will happen.
Prediction: Namajunas via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MICHAEL CHANDLER VS TONY FERGUSON
Michael Chandler (22-7) is coming off two punishing losses to the men gracing the championship main event – Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. Chandler took on Oliveira for the belt Khabib Nurmagomedov left behind and nearly finished him only to get knocked out at the start of the second round. He then put on a predictably violent war with Gaethje falling on the wrong side of a unanimous decision to drop to 1-2 in the UFC after his debut knockout over Dan Hooker.
Tony Ferguson (25-6) has finally proven he is human and experienced quite a drop-off. He was 15-1 in the UFC and riding a 12-fight win streak including incredible wins over the likes of Edson Barboza (2015), Rafael dos Anjos (2016), Kevin Lee (2017), Anthony Pettis (2018) and Donald Cerrone (2019). He was looking unstoppable and impossible to put away until Gaethje (2020) gave him a royal beatdown. He absorbed an insane amount of damage to suffer his first TKO and he has not looked the same since going on to lose unanimous to Oliveira (2020) and Beneil Dariush (2021).
PREDICTION
A pre-Gaethje Ferguson absorbs everything Chandler has to offer and piles on his own damage until he wilts. We are looking at a different Ferguson now who is on a three-fight skid, but this is a better match-up for him. Oliveira and Dariush subdued and frustrated Ferguson with their grappling but did prove he is just as hard to finish on the ground with Oliveira almost snapping his arm off.
Chandler has the wrestling to subdue Ferguson as well, but his first point of call will be his striking throwing bombs from the bell. If he hunts the early finish, it will play right into Ferguson’s hands as we still believe his chin will hold up and not give an inch for 15 minutes overwhelming Chandler with his volume.
As soon as Chandler realizes ‘El Cucuy’ will not go away, he will shoot in for the takedown. We expect him to be able to take Ferguson down, but he will not be able to keep him there as Ferguson is incredibly illusive creating scrambles and be aggressive off his back with his jiu-jitsu to create room and stand back up.
If Ferguson respects the power of Chandler and does not use his face as his primary defence and checks the leg kicks, he should win the exchanges over three rounds and drain Chandler with a suffocating volume of long punches and carving elbows while scrambling out of the takedown attempts.
Chandler will be extremely dangerous in the first round and his piston of a right hand may fold Ferguson, but if ‘El Cucuy’ gets out of the first round relatively unscathed, he should seal a decision or late finish. Considering he is a big underdog, he holds all the value.
Prediction: Ferguson via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ferguson to win
SHOGUN RUA VS OVINCE SAINT PREUX
The legend Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (27-12-1) makes his 23rd UFC walk which pleases many fans as we have not seen him since 2020. With the amount of wars he has taken part in, in the Pride days and his early UFC career, it is probably a good thing. After getting marbleized by Anthony Smith’s (2018) elbow, he turned back the clock with a TKO over Tyson Pedro (2018) to prove there was life in the old dog. He then drew with Paul Craig (2019) and scraped a split decision over his old foe Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (2020) to go 3-0 in their series. He then rematched Craig four months later and surprisingly became the second knockout of the Scotsman’s career.
Ovince Saint Preux (OSP) (25-16) is one of the most inconsistent fighters in the light heavyweight division. He is 13-11 in the UFC which includes a couple losses at heavyweight. The first was a split decision to Ben Rothwell (2020) which came after a vintage Von Flue choke on Michal Oleksiejczuk (2019) and before a blistering knockout over Alonzo Menifield (2020). He is now coming off two knockout losses to Jamahal Hill (2020) and Tanner Boser (2021) which was his second fight up with the big boys.
PREDICTION
Who knows how these warriors will perform on the night. They first met all the way back in 2014 when OSP caught Shogun with a beautiful check left hook just 34 seconds into the fight. It was a majestic counter off the back foot and OSP still has the capability to that.
Shogun will no doubt seek vengeance with a similar poison, hunting the knockout. OSP could stifle the Brazilian with his grappling leveraging his weight and power advantage in the clinch and can submit him on the ground. However, he has not fought smart in a long time, and we expect him to trade.
If OSP is on, he can knock Shogun out or cruise the fight with his grappling, but it seems a lacklustre performance is always around the corner and if he just stands in front of Shogun and is hesitant to pull the trigger, he will get knocked out.
We feel, OSP will do enough but how he can finish the fight almost depends on what mood he is in.
Prediction: Ovince Saint Preux via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Shogun via KO/TKO
DONALD CERRONE VS JOE LAUZON
Donald Cerrone’s (36-16(2)) activity has finally caught up with him without a win in his last six fights. It does not help the fact that he has fought absolute killers, but the fan favourite may be forced to hang up the cowboy hat with another loss. His last win was a unanimous decision over Al Iaquinta (2019) and has since got TKO’d by Tony Ferguson (2019), Justin Gaethje (2019) and Conor McGregor (2020) before losing a unanimous decision to Anthony Pettis (2020). He then fought to a draw with Niko Price (2020 – later overturned to a ‘no contest’) and is coming off arguably his worst loss – another first round knockout courtesy of Alex Morono (2021).
He takes on a fellow veteran well past his prime in Joe Lauzon (28-15). He has been duking it out with lightweight monsters for over 16 years, so his UFC record is an inevitably unflattering one of 15-12. He has not fought since October 2019 when he turned back the clock to knock out Jonathan Pearce in the first round which came after three straight losses – a majority decision to Stevie Ray (2017) and two TKO’s to Clay Guida (2017) and Chris Gruetzemacher.
PREDICTION
This is odd matchmaking, but we are here for it. Neither of them have anything to prove and with a combined, colossal 33 post-fight bonuses in the book (Cerrone 18, Lauzon 15) this will be a fun scrap.
They do not have the same pop in their strikes or the same tenacity on the mat, but we are safe in the knowledge they will hunt the finish. Throwing form out the window, Cerrone should take this all day. He is a much better striker and as a fellow Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, he can tangle with the submission wizard.
We expect the majority of this to remain on the feet where Cerrone’s class will shine through. Lauzon is still durable, but there is only so many kicks he will be able to absorb from Cerrone. His kickboxing and Muay Thai is still at a very high level and we expect him to get the knockout.
Prediction: Cerrone via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
RANDY BROWN VS KHAOS WILLIAMS
Randy Brown (14-4) appears for the first time this year after a successful 2021. He was heading into last year with just one fight in 2020 which was a brutal knockout loss sparked by a knee from Vicente Luque, so he was desperate to regain some form. He took on Alex Oliveira eight months later submitting him in the first round and then went on to earn a unanimous decision over Jared Gooden.
Khaos Williams (13-2) is also back on the march bagging two good wins after a loss. He made a large entrance to the UFC in 2020 with two huge first round knockouts over Alex Morono and Abdul Razak Alhassan. However, he then ran into Michel Pereira who snapped the eight-fight win streak with a unanimous decision but has responded with a decision of his own over Matt Semelsberger and a brilliant TKO over Miguel Baeza last year.
PREDICTION
Brown always has the range advantage at 170 lbs standing at 6’3” with a 78-inch reach advantage and he will be taller than Williams but will only have one inch of reach on him which will be very interesting. Williams’ power is no joke, and he will look to get inside and unleash his monster right hand while chopping down Brown’s legs with kicks.
Brown has fought higher calibre opponents and he needs to call upon that experience to keep his composure, avoid the power of Williams and initiate his grappling at the right time. He has a clear advantage on the mat and will try and get Williams on his back, but he cannot be predictable with his takedown attempts.
Brown has the technique and skill to wrap up a submission or win all three rounds to earn a decision, but the power of Williams makes this very hard to predict. Brown is the underdog, and a submission is worth a punt, but the fact that Brown tends to leave his chin exposed and does not check leg kicks swing this in Williams’ favour.
Prediction: Williams via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Brown via Submission
FRANCISCO TRINALDO VS DANNY ROBERTS
The weight cut finally became too much for Francisco Trinaldo (27-8) who is now 43 years old. After starching Jai Herbert (2020), he was welcomed to the welterweight division by elite striker Muslim Salikhov (2021) and was outclassed in a unanimous decision. However, he bounced back four months later squeaking past Dwight Grant (2021) in a split decision to go an impressive 17-7 in the UFC.
Danny Roberts (18-5) has extended his UFC record to 7-4 in his last two fights to gain some much-needed momentum despite those fights being two years apart. In 2019, he got submitted by Claudio Silva and cemented a spot on Michel Pereira’s highlight reel getting iced by a flying knee. He responded perfectly by knocking out Zelim Imadaev six months later and followed it up with a hard-fought split decision two years later over Ramazan Emeev (2021).
PREDICTION
This is another tough match-up for Roberts, but he does have the youth and size on his side. That said, Trinaldo does not fight like a 43-year-old and if he calls upon his grappling, Roberts will struggle to get going.
Roberts’ defensive grappling has improved a lot and in recent years Trinaldo has preferred to let his hands do the talking as he still packs knockout power. Roberts and the fans will hope he relies on his hands as well as it will be an exciting and explosive stand-up battle.
Roberts’ chin has taken a fair bit of damage and cannot afford to eat anything clean from the Brazilian, but if Trinaldo decides to stand for the majority of the fight, you have to back Roberts’ speed, technique and four-inch reach advantage to pile on the volume and earn a decision at least.
We are leaning toward Roberts but if Trinaldo decides to grapple, he is well worth a punt as the underdog.
Prediction: Roberts via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Trinaldo via Decision
BRANDON ROYVAL VS MATT SCHNELL
One of the most exciting flyweights on the roster Brandon Royval (13-6) returns for his second fight of the year. It was an important bout coming off two losses and against the dangerous Rogerio Bontorin. He got TKO’d by Brandon Moreno (2020) after getting his shoulder dislocated and then went on to get submitted by Alexandre Pantoja (2021). However, he bounced back with a split decision win over Bontorin to prove he is still a threat to the top tier.
The UFC have finally given up on Matt Schnell (15-5(1)) vs Alex Perez after that fight fell through four times. Bontorin actually filled in the first time Perez dropped out and won a unanimous decision although it was overturned to a ‘no contest’ after popping for a banned diuretic. Schnell is now 5-2(1) in the flyweight division and desperate to improve that record.
PREDICTION
This could easily be a ‘Fight of the Night’ contender if Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson were not on the card. They both extremely aggressive, especially on the ground with their jiu-jitsu.
They are both rapid throwing a lot of volume and happy for the fight to fall to the ground and cause chaos in a scramble. Schnell may be more likely to initiate the grappling especially if he starts to get tagged on the feet.
So, this is a fight Royval will relish – confident he can win the striking exchanges while expecting Schnell to shoot in and open-up opportunities for wild scrambles and submissions.
We are backing Royval who can win this in a variety of ways, but so can Schnell so this may be one to stay clear of from a betting point of view.
Prediction: Royval via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Schnell to win
BLAGOY IVANOV VS MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA
Blagoy Ivanov (18-4 (1)) has only fought once since 2019 which was a decent year for the Bulgarian. He was coming off a unanimous decision loss to Junior dos Santos but racked up two unanimous decisions over Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa. He then met Derrick Lewis at the end of the year, and it seemed he was cruising to another decision although two judges ended up giving Lewis the nod. Ivanov returned six months later and came up just short again losing another split decision, this time to Augusto Sakai.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-7-1) is coming off two wins on the bounce for the second time in the UFC. Last time he managed the feat was on his first two UFC appearances all the way back in 2014 and then had a 10-fight run of consecutive wins and loss floating between light heavyweight and heavyweight. After earning a unanimous decision over Maurice Green last year it seemed a given that he would lose to Ben Rothwell, but he upset the odds to earn a first-round TKO.
PREDICTION
In my opinion Ivanov has one of the best chins in MMA having eaten clean shots from the likes of dos Santos, Tuivasa and Lewis. De Lima is a very dangerous striker, but we do not feel he will be able to knock Ivanov out, so in all likelihood, he is going to get man handled.
The worry for Ivanov is that he has not fought in two years and will be giving up a significant speed advantage. The Brazilian can chop the legs down and pepper the granite chin, but we feel Ivanov can absorb it, walk into range and clinch up subduing de Lima for as long as he wants and once he gets him to the ground a submission will open itself up.
Prediction: Ivanov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ivanov via Submission
TRACY CORTEZ VS MELISSA GATTO
Tracy Cortez (9-1) could be in the flyweight title picture by now if she had fought more than twice since 2019. That year, she racked up a couple vintage unanimous decision wins over Mariya Agapova on the Contender Series and Vanessa Melo on her debut. A year later, she added another unanimous decision to the win column beating Stephanie Egger and only got one fight in last year again which was a split decision over Justine Kish extending her win streak to nine.
Melissa Gatto (8-0-2) has started her UFC career in more exciting fashion. Prior to her debut she earnt an impressive submission over Karol Rosa on a Nacao Cyborg card although that was back in 2018. Four cancelled bouts and a ban later, she finally made her debut last year when she TKO’d Victoria Leonardo breaking her arm and finishing Sijara Eubanks sparked by a brilliant body kick.
PREDICTION
This is a very interesting match-up between two ladies who are very unfamiliar with losing. They are both grapplers by trade – Cortez is more of a wrestler and Gatto a Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner. Gatto’s striking has also improved over the years so she will be confident on the feet and off her back.
It is safe to say Cortez will try and get the Brazilian on her back, but she will be taking a huge risk. Gatto will be aggressive and has the skill to find a submission and if she can reverse positions to land in top position herself, Cortez will be in even more trouble.
We expect their grappling to cancel each other out for portions of the fight where will we not see the highest skill of exchanges, but we would back Gatto to win them with her power and speed.
Cortez can compete at the top of the division, but her reliance on her wrestling could work against her here. We can see a grinding Cortez decision or a Gatto submission and as the Brazilian is the underdog, she is the smart money.