UFC on ESPN 36 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 54? Sunday 15th May, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 54? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 54? Click here for the tickets at the O2 Arena
What channel is UFC Vegas 54 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 54? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JAN BLACHOWICZ VS ALEKSANDAR RAKIC
Jan Blachowicz (28-9) is back after his devastating title fight loss back in October last year. He emerged out of the pool of light heavyweight contenders to fill the void Jon Jones left behind and won the vacant strap when he TKO’d Dominick Reyes (2020) on Fight Island. He then ruined the Israel Adesanya double champ party by dishing out a grappling lesson, completely overpowering the elite striker to a unanimous decision. That capped a super impressive five-fight win streak as he went back to Fight Island for his second title defence against Glover Teixeira who handed out his own grappling lesson submitting the Pole in the second round. Now, he wants to prove that was just a blip and get his belt back.
Standing in his way, is one of the most promising challengers Aleksandar Rakic (14-2). His fellow European has only lost once in his last 15 fights which was a split decision against Volkan Oezdemir. However, he has responded with two very measured performances and unanimous decision wins over former title challengers Anthony Smith (2020) and Thiago Santos (2021) to go 6-1 in the UFC and creep towards the number one contender spot.
PREDICTION
Overall, they match up very similar physically as top tier strikers, but Blachowicz has the edge when it comes to grappling. They have the same arm reach, but Rakic has two inches in height and leg reach which will make a difference as he is a lethal kicker from range – just ask Jimi Manuwa.
So, Rakic will need a quick start and dictate the first couple rounds with his striking offloading heavy leg kicks before Blachowicz gets a read and calls upon his experience to adapt. If Rakic begins to tag the Pole, he may clinch up sooner rather than later.
Blachowicz will no doubt carry his own threat on the feet, and he will look to counter with hooks, attacking the head to lift the guard and then fire his own kicks to the liver. This will be a cerebral battle and there may not be an abundance of volume, instead relying on their natural power to break each other down.
This is a hard one to call – if it stays on the feet, we can see both men edging a tight decision or landing a knockout. The more Blachowicz mixes in his grappling, the more likely he will win a decision or even a submission. He has the experience to execute a good game plan, but if his ego decides to trade with Rakic for five rounds, his title hopes may fade away.
Prediction: Rakic via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Blachowicz to win
RYAN SPANN VS ION CUTELABA
Last year was a mixed bag for Ryan Spann (19-7). He was heading into 2021 off the back of his first loss in the UFC and his first loss in eight fights against Johnny Walker. He was close to finding a finish himself before the Brazilian served up several brutal Travis Browne elbows. He responded by TKOing Misha Cirkunov in March however, he was then paired with Anthony Smith who outclassed him sealing the deal with a first-round rear-naked choke.
Ion Cutelaba’s (16-6-1(1)) entire UFC career has been a mixed bag with some quality wins among devasting losses to top talents. After getting submitted by the current champion Glover Teixeira (2019), he picked up a vintage TKO over Khalil Rountree (2019) before those two TKO losses to Magomed Ankalaev (2020). He then fought to a draw with Dustin Jacoby (2021) but is now coming off a rare decision win which was over Devin Clark (2021) back in December to bump up his UFC record to 5-5-1.
PREDICTION
Cutelaba has been given some very tough matchups in the UFC, but he has still displayed his raw talent. He is incredibly explosive with knockout power complimented by his sambo and wrestling.
Spann is not on Teixeira or Ankalaev’s level, but this is a very even and exciting match up. Spann also has knockout power and is a good grappler relying more on his jiu-jitsu as opposed to Cutelaba’s ground-and-pound.
This should be an absolute fire fight on the feet. They are both confident they can put someone to sleep with one punch and will aggressively walk into fire to land. When one of them gets tagged it will create more heat, with both men wanting to exchange.
Cutelaba would be wise to mix in his grappling to keep Spann guessing. He can tie him up in the clinch and exit with vicious elbows. Spann can also mix things up and lure Cutelaba in by frustrating him with his jab.
They both may have game plans here but they will most likely get thrown out the window after the first clean hit, so this is very tough to call. A knockout is likely and we are leaning towards Cutelaba, but Spann is the smart bet as the underdog.
Prediction: Cutelaba via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Spann to win
DAVEY GRANT VS LOUIS SMOLKA
Davey Grant (13-6) is coming off two losses, but they were both to two bantamweights we can see fighting for the title in the future. He rematched Marlon Vera (2021) losing a unanimous decision, but that does not look like a bad performance considering Vera is well on his way to a title shot. Grant then took on Adrian Yanez (2021) who is at the start of his UFC career but got all the makings of a future contender and the Brit took him to a split decision. Those losses snapped a three-fight win streak that included knockouts over Martin Day (2020) and Jonathan Martinez (2021) and now he would love to pick that form back up.
Louis Smolka (17-8) has been incredibly inconsistent in the UFC. After losing four in a row and getting cut, he returned to the big time in 2018 and submitted Su Mudaerji up at bantamweight. However, he then got submitted by Matt Schnell (2019), knocked out Ryan McDonald (2019), got submitted again by Casey Kenney (2020) responded with another TKO over Jose Alberto Quinonez (2020) but is coming off another first round finish getting sparked out cold by Vince Morales (2021).
PREDICTION
Smolka has a lot of skill, but he is 8-8 in the UFC now and just got knocked out which is a worry taking on someone with the power of Grant. The Brit has devastating hooks, countering with venom and he will only need one hit to turn the lights off.
Expect Grant to start with a furious pace, throwing flashy kicks and combinations. If the fight goes to the floor, Smolka will be confident, but Grant is also slick on the mat and should have too much for Smolka everywhere here and we are backing him to land his combinations and end the fight with one a clean hook.
Prediction: Grant via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN VS AMANDA RIBAS LOWDOWN
The official gatekeeper to Valentina Shevchenko’s throne, Katlyn Chookagian (17-4) steps out for her 14th UFC fight. She climbed to the top of the shallow pile of contenders in 2019 after outpointing Joanne Wood and Jennifer Maia to meet the flyweight Queen in 2020 only to get schooled and eventually TKO’d on the ground. To her credit, she has not lost heart or hopes of another title shot. She bounced back with a unanimous decision over her sister Antonina (2020) before getting TKO’d again Jessica Andrade (2020) and has gone on to earn three more vintage unanimous decisions over Cynthia Calvillo (2020), Viviane Araujo (2021) and Jennifer Maia (2022).
Amanda Ribas (11-2) makes her second appearance in the UFC flyweight division. Her first was a dominant mauling of Paige VanZant (2020) cinching up an armbar in the first round. That came after four straight wins at strawweight including decisions over Mackenzie Dern (2019) and Randa Markos (2020). However, she suffered a big setback getting TKO’d by Marina Rodriguez (2021) but she bounced back with brilliant unanimous decision over Virna Jandiroba (2021).
PREDICTION
This is a very tough assignment for Ribas in her second flyweight bout. She will only be giving up two inches in arm reach but will be giving up six inches in height and five in leg reach which will be evident when Chookagian begins to adopt her usual game plan of striking from range.
Ribas is a good striker, but she has to call upon her grappling here which is at a very high level. She has great judo and wrestling with exceptional jiu-jitsu. If she can take Chookagian down, we would expect her to control her although she may struggle with her length and pass the guard to find a submission.
We also expect a similar pattern on the feet with Ribas being more aggressive but struggling with the range of Chookagian. We expect the rangier fighter to be able to maintain the distance and lightly pepper Ribas with her jab and front kicks down the middle keeping her at bay.
If the Brazilian can secure a takedown in each round, it will get very interesting, but we feel Chookagian will keep the fight on the feet long enough to frustrate Ribas and win another point battle.
Prediction: Chookagian via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
FRANK CAMACHO VS MANUEL TORRES
Serious injuries, covid and a wild car accident has kept Frank Camacho (22-9) out for nearly two years. The exciting slugger needs to get back in the cage and more importantly, he needs a win with just one dub in his last five. In 2018, he got outpointed by Drew Dober and then got decapitated by a Geoff Neal head kick. He bounced back with a vintage TKO over Nick Hein (2019) but then went on to get submitted by Beneil Dariush (2019) and get knocked out in under a minute by Justin Jaynes (2020).
He welcomes Manuel Torres (12-2) to the UFC who is coming in hot with three straight finishes. He submitted Daniel Vega (2020) for El Combate and Carlos Enrique Canada (2021) for UWC Mexico to earn an audition on the Contender Series. He passed it with flying colours knocking out Koltan Englund last October in the first round to earn his first UFC contract and set up this clash.
PREDICTION
There is no harm in getting beat by Dober, Neal and Dariush but getting knocked out by Jaynes who went on to lose his next five is a real worry. Especially taking on a natural finisher in Torres who has five knockouts and six submissions all in the first round.
It is easy to forget that Camacho is a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner as he only uses his hands. He has 17 knockouts out of his 22 wins so we can understand why however, at this stage in his career, it may not be wise to trade with a young gunslinger like Torres.
Camacho has the experience and skill, in particular his grappling to give the Mexican a miserable debut, but there are so many question marks on how he will perform on the night. If the Guam native fights composed and executes a confident game plan, he should take this, but if he is hesitant or reckless, he could get caught ending the night early.
Prediction: Torres via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Camacho to win
JAKE HADLEY VS ALLAN NASCIMENTO
The Brummie, Jake Hadley (8-0) is fresh off his Contender Series win in October last year when he wrapped up a rear-naked choke on Mitch Raposo in the second round. That came after his dominant unanimous decision win over Luke Shanks to claim the Cage Warriors flyweight championship extending his unbeaten record which contains four submissions and two knockouts.
He takes on Allan Nascimento (18-6) who did not have the same luck on his Contender Series audition losing a split decision to the established Raulian Paiva (2018). He responded with a submission over Elivaldo Lima Martins (2021) for PDA to earn his UFC shot, but it did not go to plan losing another split decision to Tagir Ulanbekov (2021).
PREDICTION
Thankfully this has been rescheduled after Hadley got injured before the UFC Fight Night 204 London card. He is an exciting flyweight prospect and we expect see his grappling prowess at the APEX this weekend.
Nascimento has a wealth of experience fighting quality competition. He is a big flyweight and also has great jiu-jitsu, but he struggles with wrestlers as we saw in his fight with Ulanbekov. The Brazilian is more experienced, a better striker and is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but Hadley can snatch the rounds by pinning him to the canvas with his wrestling.
We are backing the Brummie to grind out a decision or even find a submission, but if he struggles to secure the takedown, Nascimento can eat him up on the feet and represents all of the value as the underdog.
Prediction: Hadley via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Nascimento to win
VIVIANE ARAUJO VS ANDREA LEE
Katlyn Chookagian locked the gate on Viviane Araujo (10-3) in her last fight over a year ago losing a unanimous decision preventing a march to the title. It came after two impressive unanimous decisions over Montana De La Rosa (2020) and Roxanne Modafferi (2021) and now she is hoping for a longer streak to climb up the rankings.
Andrea Lee (13-5) has begun her own march after a purple patch that had many questioning her credentials. She started her UFC career with three good wins but then lost decisions to Joanne Wood (2019), Lauren Murphy (2020) and Modafferi (2020) but she has looked back to her best with a submission over Antonina Shevchenko (2021) and a TKO over Cynthia Calvillo (2021).
PREDICTION
With a little more consistency and fight IQ, they could both easily climb up towards the top of the rankings. They are extremely well-rounded and skilled. Lee is more technical and fluid on the feet whereas Araujo relies more on her power.
They are both very well versed in the grappling realm as well. Lee mixes in her wrestling very well and Araujo has quality takedown defence complimented by a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. We expect to see samples of the majority of their skill set here trading takedown attempts and clinch work but mainly exchanges on the feet.
Araujo has the power to inflict more damage, but we feel Lee’s size, volume and movement will frustrate the Brazilian and sway the judges, but this is bound to be a close one.
Prediction: Lee via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Araujo via Decision
MICHAEL JOHNSON VS ALAN PATRICK
Being a Michael Johnson (19-17) fan is a tough gig with his wealth of talent and experience always making him capable of like winning before spectacularly losing. That has certainly been the case in recent fights which has seen him slip on a four-fight skid. He fought hard with Josh Emmett (2019) before getting smoked and then losing a decision to Stevie Ray (2019) and then dominated Thiago Moises (2020) before getting caught in a submission and is now coming off a unanimous decision loss to Clay Guida (2021).
We are still not sure Alan Patrick (15-3(1)) will make it to the octagon with the luck he has had recently. He earnt three solid unanimous decision wins over Damien Brown (2016), Ray (2016) and Damir Hadzovic (2018) before getting brutally knocked out by Scott Holtzman (2018). He then had four scheduled fights fall through before losing a unanimous decision to Bobby Green (2020) and then had a bout prematurely end with a ‘no contest’ with Mason Jones due to an eye poke. The rematch got cancelled and this fight also fell through but thankfully it is back on for now.
PREDICTION
We are not sure how either fighter will show up as neither of these guys are getting any younger with Johnson forgetting that winning feeling and Patrick forgetting what an octagon looks like.
It is too late for Patrick to live up to the hype at 38 years old, but he is still a very dangerous man particularly on the ground as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Johnson will be a threat as always on the feet with his ferocious hand speed and he will have to keep the fight on the standing to have any chance.
Patrick will be confident in trading with Johnson and considering his inconsistency, he may even have success. So, the stand-up will be interesting but if Patrick secures some takedowns, it will be an easier night.
Prediction: Patrick via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
VIRNA JANDIROBA VS ANGELA HILL LOWDOWN
Virna Jandiroba’s (17-3) three losses have all come in the UFC and were against top competition. She was handed the current champion, Carla Esparza (2019) on debut losing a unanimous decision, bounced back with two effortless submissions over Mallory Martin (2019) and Felice Herrig (2020) before meeting the only fighter on the roster with better jiu-jitsu than her, Mackenzie Dern (2020) losing a unanimous decision. She then TKO’d Kanako Murata (2021) but is coming off her third loss which was a unanimous decision to Amanda Ribas (2021).
No stranger to a UFC loss herself is Angela Hill (13-11) which is inevitable considering she started her professional career in the big league. She has improved tremendously but has struggled against the elite losing super tight decisions to Claudia Gadelha (2020), Michelle Waterson (2020), Tecia Torres (2021) and Amanda Lemos (2021) in her last five with her second unanimous decision over Ashley Yoder (2021) sandwiched in between.
PREDICTION
Jandiroba is dangerous on the feet with her unorthodox striking, but this should turn into a striker vs grappler match up. Hill has a clear edge on the feet with excellent Muay Thai and kickboxing. They have a similar height and reach, but Hill’s technique should allow her to conduct the range and win the exchanges.
Her grappling and defensive wrestling has improved a lot, but it is still a hole in her game and if the fight goes to the floor, Jandiroba’s jiu-jitsu is at such a level, it should only be a matter of time before she finds a submission.
So, this will be a case of whether the Brazilian can secure the takedown. She has 39% takedown accuracy and Hill has an impressive 78% defence. We feel she will find one at some point so leaning towards a submission with Hill as the value pick.
Prediction: Jandiroba via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
NICK MAXIMOV VS ANDRE PETROSKI
Nick Maximov (8-0) looks like a future middleweight contender after beating Punahele Soriano three months ago in just his third UFC fight. It was a split decision, but very impressive so early in his career and it extends his unbeaten record after his unanimous decision over Cody Brundage (2021) on debut.
If Andre Petroski (7-1) sorts out his cardio, he could also be a future contender. He looked great on The Ultimate Fighter 29 before gassing out and getting submitted by Bryan Battle (2021) in the semi-finals. He has also got off to a perfect start in the UFC knocking out Micheal Gilmore (2021) and submitting Yaozong Hu (2021) however, that is probably the kindest start you can have to a UFC career, and he still has a lot to prove.
PREDICTION
These guys are both very powerful grapplers with Maximov boasting a three-inch reach advantage. They both have a ton of potential, but neither of them are very experienced and it has shown in their last bouts.
They both rely on their wrestling to control the fight with the Diaz protégé Maximov preferring his jiu-jitsu to find the finish and Petroski also has excellent jiu-jitsu but prefers ground-and-pound to get the job done.
That said, we could see their grappling cancel each other out for the first round at least. Neither of them look natural on the feet but we can see Petroski’s power causing some issues which will force Maximov to close the distance and initiate the grappling.
Here, it will be a very even and attritional battle and we expect Maximov’s cardio to finish the fight stronger to sway a couple judges at least.