UFC on ESPN 35 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 35? Saturday 30th April, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 35? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 35? Click here for the tickets at the O2 Arena
What channel is UFC on ESPN 35 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 35? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ROB FONT VS MARLON VERA
Rob Font (19-5) stormed his way up the rankings after his unanimous decision loss to Raphael Assuncao back in 2018. He proceeded to earn unanimous decisions over Sergio Pettis (2018) and Ricky Simon (2019) before earning a ‘Performance of the Night’ when he knocked out Marlon Moraes (2020) in the first round. He then racked up another win over a former star who has fallen from grace in Cody Garbrandt (2021) earning a unanimous decision. However, his momentum was stopped in its tracks by a legend getting outclassed by Jose Aldo (2021) in another unanimous decision.
Marlon Vera (18-7-1) also got outclassed by the King of Rio in 2020 after his high-profile win over Sean O’Malley the same year. That was his second loss in three fights after his controversial unanimous decision loss to Song Yadong three months prior. However, he is back on the march after coming out on top in a ‘Fight of the Night’ with Davey Grant (2021) swaying all three judges and his brilliant front kick knockout over Frankie Edgar (2021).
PREDICTION
This is a fantastic main event between the #5 and #8 ranked bantamweights. They are both incredibly skilled and well rounded. Font is a better wrestler and Vera has the better jiu-jitsu which could force a stand-up battle for five rounds or until someone falls.
This will be a very high-level and fast-paced fight but a very strategic one. Font will be more conventional relying on his boxing and in particular his jab. Vera will expend more energy in his strikes and will target the legs with kicks.
Font will be ready to time his jab when Vera kicks and no doubt Vera will have combinations planned and try and break into the pocket to land heavy knees and elbows. Whoever adapts the best will be able to finish stronger and the fact that Font has gone five rounds in his last two fights whereas Vera has never gone the full 25, give him a slight edge.
That said, we have not seen much to suggest Vera will slow down after the third round so we are expecting an epic battle with a ton of output thrown from both sides. We are leaning towards a Font decision with his jab keeping Vera at bay long enough to frustrate the Ecuadorian into throwing wild strikes draining his gas tank and leaving himself open to counters.
Prediction: Font via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Vera via Decision
ANDREI ARLOVSKI VS JAKE COLLIER
Andrei Arlovski (33-20(2)) is still not slowing down at the ripe old age of 43 and 37 fights deep into his UFC career. There is a lot of fodder in the heavyweight division but to compile a three-fight win streak and winning five of his last six is very impressive at his age. That loss was also to the hottest prospect in the division right now – Tom Aspinall (2021) who steamrolled him cinching up a submission in the second round. ‘The Pitbull’ then proceeded to earn unanimous decisions over Chase Sherman (2021) and Carlos Felipe (2021) before a split decision over Jared Vanderaa (2022).
Jake Collier’s (13-6) ceiling is not very high in the heavyweight division, but it is good to see him active after his hiatus. He was also schooled by Aspinall (2020) who TKO’d him in the first round. He responded with a unanimous decision over Gian Villante (2020) and then lost a split decision to Carlos Felipe (2022) but is coming off an impressive finish and submission over Chase Sherman (2022).
PREDICTION
We feel like we have seen this match-up several times in the heavyweight division. The modern Arlovski has transformed from knockout artist to the decision king with his last nine wins involving the judges.
This promises to be another uninspiring striking contest. Expect a slow-paced, gritty exchange of short combinations with a bit of clinch work. Collier has the speed advantage and can chop the veteran’s legs down, but we expect the experience and nous of Arlovski to avoid any significant damage with his head movement while utilizing a lot feints to set up an array of punches and kicks to ultimately sway the judges.
That said, while Collier is the underdog, he holds all the value and can squeak out a decision of his own with more output.
Prediction: Arlovski via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Collier via Decision
ANDRE FILI VS JOANDERSON BRITO LOWDOWN
Andre Fili’s (21-8(1)) form has not quite matched his performances. He has evolved into a very good and well-rounded fighter during his UFC career, but he has only won once in his last four to drop to 9-7(1). He lost a unanimous decision to Sodiq Yusuff (2020), squeaked out a decision win over Charles Jourdain (2020) but went on to get out grappled by Bryce Mitchell (2020) in another unanimous decision and was looking great against Daniel Pineda (2021) before a bad accidental eye poke forced a premature end and ‘no contest’.
Joanderson Brito (12-3-1) walks out for his second UFC fight and he is desperate to show the UFC faithful what he is capable of. He went 11 straight fights unbeaten before his audition on the Contender Series and earnt his contract with a unanimous decision over Diego Lopes (2021). However, Bill Algeo (2022) earnt a unanimous decision of his own to snap the streak and force Brito back to the drawing board.
ANDRE FILI VS JOANDERSON BRITO PREDICTION
Fili has a clear edge in experience as well as a familiar range advantage boasting three inches in height and two in reach over Brito. The Brazilian is a very strong grappler and will no doubt try and get the fight to the floor, pin Fili down and chip away with ground-and-pound.
So, this is a very tough match-up for him. Fili is an excellent grappler himself with brilliant wrestling, sweeps and an aggressive ground game. He will be confident if the fight does hit the deck but will be salivating while they are standing.
There is a huge gulf in class on the feet. Brito gets hit a lot and Fili is incredibly slick with an array of combinations. He only has one knockout in the books since 2015 but as we saw in the Pineda fight, he does not need blistering power to end the fight. He was picking him apart with every strike in the book and was close to getting a finish.
As long as this stands, Fili is going to have a field day and if Brito manages to tie him up, he will be confident of reversing positions and earning top position himself while being a constant submission threat.
Brito is clearly dangerous but on paper, Fili should outclass him everywhere for three rounds with a late finish very possible.
Prediction: Fili via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Fili via KO/TKO
JARED GORDON VS GRANT DAWSON
Jared Gordon (18-4) makes the UFC walk for the first time this year and was scheduled to fight Rafael Alves who had to pull out but thankfully Gordon is still on the card. He arrives with some much-needed momentum after getting knocked out three times in four fights. The current champ Charles Oliveira (2019) delivered the third starching with a beautiful uppercut which put doubt on his UFC tenure, but he has responded with three hard-fought decision wins over Chris Fishgold (2020), Danny Chavez (2021) and Joe Solecki (2021).
Grant Dawson (17-1-1) fills the Alves void and is coming off a minor blip on the record. A rare blip and draw with Ricky Glenn which came after an impressive eight-fight win streak including five UFC bouts. After submitting fellow submission ace Darrick Minner (2020) missing weight in the process, and outpointing Nad Narimani (2020) at a catchweight, he moved up to lightweight and proceeded to knock out Leonardo Santos (2021) in the last second of the fight to announce himself in the division.
PREDICTION
Gordon has another very tough match-up here. Dawson has only had one fight at 155 lbs in the UFC, but we have no doubt he is going to be a force in the division. His grappling is no joke and utilizes his cardio and wrestling to drain the gas tank of his opponents until they wilt and open themselves up for a submission.
Gordon can grapple himself and has never been submitted, but after watching Solecki take him down four times, we feel Dawson will be able to drag him down to the canvas quickly and pick up his 12th submission win. A Dawson knockout is also a good shout considering Gordon’s chin. A Dawson finish is the play
Prediction: Dawson via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DARREN ELKINS VS TRISTAN CONNELLY
The old war horse Darren Elkins (26-10) makes the UFC walk for the 26th time. He is coming off a beatdown which is not uncommon for the veteran, but this time he lost and got put away by Cub Swanson (2021) who capped the finish off with a spinning wheel kick. That punishing loss broke the momentum of two wins on the bounce over Luiz Eduardo Garagorri (2020 – submission) and Darrick Minner (2021 – TKO) and now stands at 16-9 in the UFC.
Tristan Connelly (14-7) stepped in on short notice and up two weight classes to take on Michel Pereira (2019) for his debut and then Pat Sabatini (2021) for his second bout. Incredibly tough start, but he pulled off one of the most memorable debuts in UFC history humbling the Brazilian. He weathered the storm, waited for Pereira to gas out and proceed to grind out a unanimous decision. He did not have the same luck in his weight class however getting outpointed by Sabatini who is going to be a real threat in the featherweight division.
PREDICTION
This is destined to be a gritty war. There is a lot of damage on Elkins’ clock now which is a worry especially as Connelly will keep pressing forward trying to find a home of his hands.
They are both grinders, but Elkins is far more seasoned, and his experience will be crucial. Sabatini took Connelly down with relative ease and we expect Elkins to land a few takedowns. In between landing them he will get hit so it is a case of how much he can absorb before subduing Connelly against the fence and mat.
We feel Elkins still has enough juice left in the tank to grind out a decision another decision with his wrestling, but this will be a close battle.
Prediction: Elkins via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
KRZYSZTOF JOTKO VS GERALD MEERSCHAERT
Krzysztof Jotko’s (23-5) UFC career was hanging by a thread in 2018 after losing a split decision to David Branch (2017) and then getting knocked out by Uriah Hall (2017) and Brad Tavares (2018). However, he has shown a lot of character to win four of his next five with the loss coming to the surging Sean Strickland (2021). That came after decision wins over Alen Amedovski (2019), Marc-Andre-Barriault (2019) and Eryk Anders (2020). He is now coming off another decision in October last year over Misha Cirkunov managing to convince two of the judges.
Gerald Meerschaert (34-14) is one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC but one of the most exciting as a finish in some form is always just round the corner. In 2020, he got knocked out by Ian Heinisch and Khamzat Chimaev taking centre stage on the prospect’s highlight reel. However, 2021 was a lot kinder for Meerschaert compiling his biggest win streak in the UFC by submitting Bartosz Fabinski, Makhmud Muradov and Dustin Stoltzfus.
PREDICTION
Someone’s style has to give with Jotko’s last five fights ending via decision and Meerschaert’s last six ending with a finish. Meerschaert also only has one knockout win in the last 10 years so the most likely outcome is Jotko getting submitted or earning a decision.
They match up very similarly physically with the same height and reach and are also both southpaws. We expect them to begin trading where Jotko will feel most comfortable, but he will have to be cautious of getting caught with one of Meerschaert’s bombs.
Once, Jotko begins to get the upper hand on the feet which could take a round or two, expect Meerschaert to desperately shoot in to hunt a submission. We are leaning towards a Jotko decision, but a Meerschaert submission is a smarter bet as he is the underdog.
Prediction: Jotko via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Meerschaert via Submission
ALEXANDER ROMANOV VS CHASE SHERMAN
Alexander Romanov (15-0) originally filled in for Rodrigo Nascimento to take on Tanner Boser but the American then pulled out leaving the UFC scrambling for a replacement. extend his perfect record. Thankfully he is still on the card and gets the opportunity to extend his perfect record. He kicked off his UFC career by steamrolling Roque Martinez (2020) and Marcos Rogerio de Lima (2020) with submissions and fought to a hard split decision with fellow grappling prospect Juan Espino (2021). He is now coming off another mauling and TKO over Jared Vanderaa (2021).
Chase Sherman (15-9) is the man filling the Boser void. He was recently released from the UFC for a second time after losing his third fight in a row dropping unanimous decisions to Andrei Arlovski (2021) and Parker Porter (2021) before getting submitted by Jake Collier back in January. He has been granted a four-fight deal for stepping up, so the UFC are very happy Romanov still gets to eat.
PREDICTION
Sherman is getting fed to the Moldovan here in a clear mismatch. Sherman can cause damage on the feet with his quick hands. However, it should only be a matter of time before Romanov shoots in for a takedown, drags Sherman to the canvas and rains down clubbing ground-and-pound until Sherman wilts or opens up a submission for Romanov to pounce on.
Prediction: Romanov via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DANIEL LACERDA VS FRANCISCO FIGUEIREDO
Daniel Lacerda (33-20(2)) arrived to the UFC off the back of three first round finishes in various promotions and looked to be another exciting addition to the flyweight division. His debut did not go to plan however, getting TKO’d in the second round. That said, it was against Jeff Molina (2021) who is now on an eight-fight win streak with that win and we know Lacerda still has a lot to offer in the 125 lb class.
Francisco Figueiredo (13-6) is also coming off a loss after an unbeaten run. He notched up a couple knockouts on the Brazilian scene before fighting to a draw with Eduardo de Souza (2019 – Jungle Fights). 16 months later he ended up making his UFC debut against Jerome Rivera (2021) and shook off the rust to earn a unanimous decision. He then met Malcolm Gordon as the heavy favourite but ended up losing a unanimous decision to suffer his first loss in four years.
PREDICTION
This is a fun fight as they are both very aggressive. Especially Lacerda who will throw big shots which will leave him open for the counter, but if he lands, he will put Figueiredo in serious trouble. Only two of his fights have gone past the first round, so expect a wild first five minutes.
If it goes into the second round, it will get very interesting, and we would back Figueiredo to grow into the fight and leverage his wrestling to wear Lacerda down. This is tough to call, but a first-round Lacerda finish or a Figueiredo decision are your best bets.
Prediction: Figueiredo via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Prediction: Lacerda via finish
NATAN LEVY VS MIKE BREEDEN
Natan Levy (6-1) finally made his UFC last November only to suffer his first loss. He racked up five wins for the Legacy Fighting Alliance (two submissions and three decision) before his opportunity to impress Dana White. He took of Shaheen Santana (2020) on the Contender Series and pulled off a brilliant arm-triangle choke in the third round. That led to his debut against Rafa Garcia (2021) but got outclassed in a unanimous decision.
Mike Breeden (10-4) is also coming off a loss on his UFC debut. No one really gave him a chance stepping up on short notice to fight Alexander Hernandez and he did not give an accurate account of himself getting knocked out in the first round.
PREDICTION
More was also expected from Levy on his debut, and we are expecting better performances from both men this weekend. Levy comes from a strong karate background, and it would be great to see those skills and movement although we can see him relying on his grappling again.
Breeden will hope he decides to stand and bang as he is made for it. He is a dangerous striker, but on paper, Levy has the skill and technique to outpoint him on the feet and the wrestling to take him down and pursue a submission.
We are backing Levy, but if he does not show the form that got him to the UFC, Breeden will make him look silly.
Prediction: Levy via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Breeden via KO/TKO
GINA MAZANY VS SHANNA YOUNG
It is only a matter of time before Gina Mazany (7-5) gets cut again. She showed a lot of courage stepping up to fight Julia Avila (2020) on short notice, but she got knocked out in 22 seconds. She returned five months later to take on Rachael Ostovich (2020) to pull off her best win with a TKO. However, she then met Priscilla Cachoeira last May to get TKO’d herself and slump to 2-5 in the UFC.
She takes on Shanna Young (7-4) who is still without a win in the UFC. After failing her audition on the Contender Series getting submitted by Sarah Alpar (2019), she picked up a decision against Maiju Suotama (2019) which led to hear opportunity for a debut as a late replacement. However, Chiasson (2020) welcomed her to the UFC outpointing her and then Stephanie Egger (2021) piled on more damage with a TKO.
PREDICTION
These ladies will not be threatening the rankings anytime soon. Young is a decent striker, but her grappling is a significant whole in her game which Mazany can expose. Mazany has better experience, but we have not seen much evolvement in her game, in particular her striking.
If Young can defend the takedown, she will look great and cruise the rounds as the more accomplished striker, but we cannot see her staying on her feet. We expect Mazany to seal the takedowns and control time to convince the judges.