UFC 273 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 273? Sunday 10th April, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 273? VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 273? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 273
What channel is UFC 273 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 273? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI VS CHAN SUNG JUNG
Alexander Volkanovski (23-1) continues to make his case for the featherweight ‘goat’ sitting proudly on an incredible 20-fight win streak. He is coming off an epic title defence against Brian Ortega (2021) after outpointing fellow ‘goat’ candidates Jose Aldo (2019) and Max Holloway (2019 and 2020). Holloway came up short in two very close and compelling battles and was due for the trilogy this weekend, but injury has forced him out opening the door to another title shot for the ‘Korean Zombie’.
Chan Sung Jung (17-6) attempts his second shot at gold since getting TKO’d by a prime Aldo (2013). He has gone 4-2 since with losses to Yair Rodriguez (2018) and Brian Ortega (2020) in among vintage knockout wins over the likes of Dennis Bermudez (2017), Renato Moicano (2019) and Frankie Edgar (2019). He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Dan Ige (2021) which would not usually be enough to warrant a title shot, but nobody is complaining about Jung filling in.
PREDICTION
Volkanovski is understandably the favourite, but the Korean Zombie has the tools to pull of the upset. He has the experience, knockout power and will happily put himself in danger in search of a finish which is exactly what you need to do against the Aussie.
Volkanovski is impeccable everywhere. He out struck Holloway for the majority of their 50 minutes of cage time and survived the submission attempts of one of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu practitioners in the sport.
It is his cardio and work rate that sets him apart keeping up a ferocious pace for 25 minutes mixing in seamless boxing, leg kicks and takedowns. His arsenal and output will be too much for the Korean Zombie unless he can clip him to set up a TKO or even a submission.
Jung will not be deterred by the power of the champion and will continue to press into range hoping to find a home for one of his hands which will create some crazy exchanges and probably the ‘fight of the night’.
We expect the Korean Zombie to land causing damage but Volkanovski’s constant movement and counters in the form of leg kicks and punches down the pipe will slow Jung down and frustrate him. This will force Jung to throw wilder looping shots opening himself up for more counters.
The Korean Zombie certainly has the ability to finish and considering the odds, he is well worth a punt, but we are backing Volkanovski to break him down on the feet and on the ground with Jung’s his durability pushing this to a punishing decision.
Prediction: Volkanovski via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: The Korean Zombie via finish
ALJAMAIN STERLING VS PETR YAN
Finally, Aljamain Sterling (20-3) is back to defend his title and prove he is a worthy champion. Much-needed neck surgery has postponed this rematch of the title fight which was over a year ago now. Sterling became the champion due to a disqualification. It was the right call, but he clearly milked it to turn a lot of fans against him. That said, we cannot forget what got him to the dance with five quality wins including submissions over Cody Stamann (2019) and Cory Sandhagen (2020) which sandwiched a unanimous decision over Pedro Munhoz (2019).
The people’s champion, Petr Yan (16-2) managed to get a fight in after gifting the strap with that mindless knee. He put on a performance against Sandhagen to make the strongest case of being the best fighter in the division earning an exceptional unanimous decision. That made it 11 wins in his last 12 which includes that late TKO win over the former featherweight king Jose Aldo and it should have been 12 from 12 if it was not for that careless moment.
PREDICTION
It was a 50/50 ‘pick em’ call before the fight, but as we predicted, Yan weathered early storm by defending the takedowns and his elite striking was taking the fight away from a fatiguing Sterling.
We feel the same route to victories are there for the rematch. Sterling will try and set up takedowns and scrambles with his explosive and diverse striking hoping to pounce on Yan’s back for a submission. He has some of the most dangerous jiu-jitsu in the division and now knows he does not have the skill or cardio to stand with the Russian for five rounds.
Yan knows he needs to keep the distance, avoid getting clipped with something flashy such as a flying knee and pace himself again. Sterling was able to take Yan down initially, but as the fight went on, Yan looked like the better wrestler which discouraged Sterling.
Yan will be more aware of Sterling’s threat on the ground but has the knowledge that the threat dilutes as the rounds go on and he is capable dominating the grappling exchanges over time. Sterling is likely to be more patient instead of emptying the gas tank in the first two rounds.
That said, we still feel Sterling needs to hunt an early finish. He has the ability to catch Yan with something wild and latch onto a submission, but he cannot hang with Yan for five rounds. The time off with surgery while Yan kept active only makes this tougher for Sterling and we feel the Russian will prove he is the king of the division with another measured and classy display.
This is Yan’s to lose again, and a TKO is very likely, but Sterling should make enough adjustments to remain competitive in the championship rounds.
Prediction: Yan via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Sterling via Submission
GILBERT BURNS VS KHAMZAT CHIMAEV
Gilbert Burns (20-4) appears for the first time this year accepting the fight nobody wants. He showed a lot of character in his last fight bouncing back from his title fight loss to Kamaru Usman in February last year. The champ snapped the impressive six-fight win streak with a TKO which hurt Burns more mentally, but he responded with a classy unanimous decision win over arguably the best striker in the division - Stephen Thompson.
The bogeyman of the division, Khamzat Chimaev (10-0) makes his eagerly anticipated return after racking up his fourth ‘performance of the night’ bonus in a row back in October. He has swatted everyone away like they do not belong in an octagon. John Phillips was his first victim at middleweight with a submission, he then knocked out Rhys McKee 10 days later at welterweight and then went back up to 185 lbs to erase Gerald Meerschaert. He returned over a year later after suffering with Covid and he looked even scarier, toying with and submitting Li Jingliang in the first round.
PREDICTION
Chimaev is the hottest prospect we have seen since Conor McGregor and has won more UFC fights than he has been hit. However, there is only so much weight you can put on a fighter who has never been tested, never been rocked and never been dragged into dark waters. However, we see all the attributes of a future champion. His skill set is terrifying with underrated striking to compliment his elite grappling and he is simply an animal with beastly cardio.
The question is whether he is ready to take on someone of the calibre of Burns in just his fifth UFC fight. The Brazilian is one of the best best jiu-jitsu practitioners on the roster with strong wrestling and he also has knockout power in his hands.
However, the only advantage he holds here is his jiu-jitsu and experience. Burns is a former lightweight and Chimaev’s size, power and wrestling should be enough to subdue his submission skills on the floor and as we saw in the Jingliang fight, experience did not count for anything, and he threw him around like a sack of potatoes.
There is also little reason to believe Chimaev will not come out even more tenacious and explosive hunting an early finish. He will boast a four-inch reach advantage and he is likely to show that off with his improved boxing to set up a takedown.
Burns may be too good to get submitted and we can see him putting up a good fight for a couple rounds, but Chimaev’s power should nullify all of Burns’ weapons and may even set up a knockout.
Prediction: Chimaev via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Burns to win
MACKENZIE DERN VS TECIA TORRES
Mackenzie Dern’s (11-2) momentum has been halted again by another Brazilian. The decorated jiu-jitsu phenom choked her way to 7-0 after winning her first two UFC fights but got humbled by Amanda Ribas (2019) in a unanimous decision. She bounced back with four impressive wins submitting Hannah Cifers (2020) and Randa Markos (2020) before outpointing fellow jiu-jitsu ace Virna Jandiroba (2020). She went on to collect her seventh submission over Nina Nunes but is coming off another humbling unanimous decision loss to Marina Rodriguez.
Tecia Torres (13-5) is next up for Dern and she is looking back to her best. She could not cut it at the top of the division losing four on the bounce to Jessica Andrade (2018), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (2018), Weili Zhang (2019) and Rodriguez (2019). Runs do not get much tougher than that and she has shown a lot of character bouncing back with three straight wins including a unanimous decision over Angela Hill (2021) in her last outing.
PREDICTION
Dern obviously wants to get this to the ground where she only needs one opportunity so the question is whether Torres can defend the takedown. Her defence is only 58% which is bad news as Dern will be relentless in the pursuit for three rounds.
Torres does not have the wrestling of Ribas or the illusiveness and range of Rodriguez. That said, she has a clear speed and striking advantage. We can see her peppering Dern and looking great in the first round, but we expect Dern to eventually land a takedown.
If Dern can pin her down, it should be a matter of time before she cinches up a submission or could even pounce on the back in a scramble. We are expecting another submission for Dern, but there is a lot of value on a Torres decision.
Prediction: Dern via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Torres via Decision
VINC PICHEL VS MARK MADSEN
Vinc Pichel (14-2) appears for his annual fight and we wonder how far he could have gone if he was more active. He is 39 now and only lost two fights which were to supreme wrestlers Rustam Khabilov (2012 – UFC debut) and Gregor Gillespie (2018). He has racked up seven comfortable wins among those losses and is currently on a three-fight win streak including unanimous decisions over Roosevelt Roberts (2019), Jim Miller (2020) and Austin Hubbard (2021).
It is also a case of what ‘could have been’ for Mark Madsen (11-0) who is 37 years old. He dedicated his career to Greco-Roman wrestling and was very successful winning an array of medals including silver at the 2016 Olympics. After a couple fights in 2013/2014, he ventured back into MMA in 2018 carrying over his skill set effortlessly. He made his UFC debut in 2019 when he blasted Danilo Belluardo out the water with a TKO and followed that up with a unanimous decision over Hubbard (2020) and a closer split decision over Clay Guida (2021).
PREDICTION
This is a very interesting battle between two machines. Pichel’s wrestling has been tuned for MMA over the years and feels it will be enough to deal with the Olympian.
Despite approaching their 40’s, they both have a lot to offer the lightweight division. If Pichel can defend any takedowns and create room, he has ability to inflict Madsen’s first loss.
However, Madsen’s wrestling is on another level, and he will look to use his lifetime’s experience to run through and maul Pichel, throw him on his back and rain down the damage. Pichel is a great wrestler, but we expect Madsen to have the same success Khabilov and Gillespie had earning a decision at least.
Prediction: Madsen via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
IAN GARRY VS DARIAN WEEKS
Ian Garry (8-0) returns after his exciting UFC debut back in November. The hotshot was building the hype fight by fight under the Cage Warriors banner, making his professional debut for the promotion in 2019. It took him seven fights to become the welterweight champion, beating Jack Grant (2021) via unanimous decision paving the way for his opportunity under the bright lights. His debut could not have gone much better, burying Jordan Williams in the first round.
Darian Weeks (5-1) sets out to derail the hype train. He had a much tougher debut in the form of Bryan Barberena back in December and fell on the wrong side of a tight unanimous decision. That loss was the first of his professional career coming after five finishes (four knockouts and a submission) for a variety of promotions including a TKO over Craig Fairley (2021) for the Legacy Fighting Alliance.
PREDICTION
Many feel Weeks is being fed to Garry to fuel the hype train, but the American has the tools to cause the upset. As we saw in Garry’s last fight, he can be hit and Weeks hits like a truck.
He is every experienced with an amateur record of 15-4 and pushed the veteran Barberena all the way. He is a very dangerous striker and if Garry is cocky and does not respect his skill, his chin will be left open.
That said, this is a good match-up for Garry. He is a big welterweight with clear knockout power of his own while being very technical. He will wait for Weeks to throw his wild looping shots to venomously counter with kicks and his missile of a right hand as we saw in the Williams fight.
This is likely to end via knockout and we are backing Garry to extend his unbeaten record, but Weeks is worth a small punt considering the odds.
Prediction: Garry via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Weeks via KO/TKO
RAQUEL PENNINGTON VS ASPEN LADD
Raquel Pennington (13-8) steps in for Irene Aldana to prove she still has what it takes to compete for the bantamweight strap. She got completely outclassed by Amanda Nunes (2018) in her title fight and again by Germaine de Randamie six months later. Another former champion, Holly Holm (2020) handed out a further lesson, but Pennington has hung in the ranks with unanimous decisions over Marion Reneau (2020) and Pannie Kianzad (2021) as well as a submission over Macy Chiasson (2021) in her last fight.
Aspen Ladd (9-2) accepts another very tough match-up and it is a huge opportunity to get her career back in the right trajectory. She earnt ‘prospect’ status winning her first three UFC fights in impressive fashion extending her unbeaten run to 8-0. However, she has gone on to lose two from three, getting clapped by de Randamie (2019) and losing a unanimous decision to Norma Dumont (2021) before her TKO win over Yana Kunitskaya (2019).
PREDICTION
This is a completely different match-up for Ladd as she was preparing for the explosive striker Aldana. Pennington can also box but prefers to grind out wins leveraging her strength and grappling.
Ladd was out for nearly two years before her last fight recovering from injury. Dumont was another late replacement and Ladd looked rusty and suffered with weight cutting issues forcing that fight to take place at featherweight.
Preparations are not perfect again and Pennington has the ideal skill set to capitalize. She has a wealth of experience at the top level and can shut down Ladd when she wants with her wrestling, tiring Ladd out in the clinch.
Unless Ladd bursts out the gate to unleash beast mode like she did against Kunitskaya, we see Pennington grinding out another decision win.
Prediction: Pennington via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Pennington via Submission
ALEXEY OLEYNIK VS JARED VANDERAA
Alexey Oleynik (59-16-1) is thankful he has not wasted his training camp and gets to walk out for his 77th pro MMA fight after Ilir Latifi pulled out of UFC Fight Night 205 and again for this weekend. The aptly named ‘Boa Constrictor’ has 46 submissions on the record but we have not seen one since 2020 when he cinched up an armbar on Maurice Greene. He followed that up with a split decision over the former champion Fabricio Werdum but is now on a three-fight skid. He got TKO’d by Derrick Lewis (2020) and Chris Daukaus (2021) and is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Sergey Spivak.
Jared Vanderaa (12-7) steps up to the plate as he is desperate to get back in the win column after losing his last two. He got mauled and TKO’d by Alexander Romanov (2021) and somehow got a nod from one judge in his split decision loss to Andre Arlovski (2022). He is now 1-3 in the UFC after getting TKO’d by Sergey Spivak (2021) on his debut and putting on a ‘fight of the night’ performance with Justin Tafa walking away with a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Like all Oleynik’s fights, his goal will be to throw an array of awkward strikes to set up an opportunity to wrap his arms around Vanderaa’s neck. He has a habit of landing from unpredictable angles, but he is taking on a dangerous kickboxer.
Vanderaa is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but if the fight hits the deck, Oleynik should have the upper hand. He only needs one opportunity to tie up a submission with his freakish strength and that can even be on the feet with his trademarked ezekiel choke.
Considering the miles on Oleynik’s clock and the damage his chin has endured with a worrying nine knockout losses in the loss column, the longer he decides to stand, the more likely a knockout will be. However, surely with his experience and Vanderaa’s lack of takedown defence, the wily old veteran will waste no time in initiating the clinch, dragging the fight to the ground and work on a submission.
Prediction: Oleynik via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Vanderaa via KO/TKO
PIERA RODRIGUEZ VS KAY HANSEN
Piera Rodriguez (7-0) makes her debut after a successful audition on the Contender Series last year. She took on Valesca Machado in October winning a unanimous decision extending her unbeaten record which includes five knockouts for a variety of promotions.
In contrasting form, Kay Hansen (7-5) is coming off two unanimous decision losses to Cory McKenna (2020) at strawweight and Jasmine Jasudavicius (2022) up at flyweight. Now, she drops back down to 115 lbs desperate to show the form that sealed an armbar over Jinh Yu Frey (2020) on her debut.
PREDICTION
All the pressure is on Hansen here facing a three-fight skid if she loses to the debutant. Rodriguez is full of confidence and buzzing to make her debut and just by looking at the finishes on her record, Hansen has her hands full.
Hansen will be grateful she is fighting someone who is a similar size down at strawweight especially if the fight goes to floor where she can show off her jiu-jitsu. However, this is a bad match-up for her as the Venezuelan is a strong grappler and we expect her to walk Hansen down, shrug off the takedown attempts and even land in top position herself to sway the judges.