UFC Fight Night 204 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 204? Saturday 19th March, 2022 - 18:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 204? The O2 Arena, London, England
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 204? Click here for the tickets at the O2 Arena
What channel is UFC Fight Night 204 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 204? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ALEXANDER VOLKOV VS TOM ASPINALL
Alexander Volkov (34-9) steps up to take on Britain’s brightest prospect on enemy turf. He was active last year fighting three times going 2-1. He picked up his most impressive win of his career knocking Alistair Overeem out in the second round which was his second TKO in a row after putting Walt Harris away. However, he then ran into Ciryl Gane who outclassed him on the feet to a unanimous decision but got back in the win column with a unanimous decision over Marcin Tybura back in October.
Tom Aspinall (11-2) is doing his best temper the hype, but the grounded Mancunian will take all the headlines if he repeats his previous UFC performances. He has had four fights now and put every opponent away. He TKO’d Jake Collier (2020) and Alan Baudot (2020) before submitting Andrei Arlovski (2021). He is now coming off the ninth knockout of his career running through Sergey Spivak back in September last year.
PREDICTION
This is Aspinall’s biggest fight by a mile, not just taking on someone of the calibre of Volkov but headlining the first UFC in Britain in three years.
Volkov has a clear advantage when it comes to experience and will be the rangiest fighter Aspinall has fought, but he only has two inches in height and reach. Aspinall has the edge when it comes to grappling especially on the ground as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but the key advantage, he has here is his speed.
Aspinall will be prepared for Volkov’s stiff jab at range as well as his powerful leg kicks and will look to leverage his speed to break the distance and counter. Only Ciryl Gane has outclassed Volkov on the feet and we have not seen enough of Aspinall to suggest he can strike at that level for five rounds.
His only question mark is his cardio whereas Volkov has gone past the third round five times. So, we expect Aspinall to call upon his grappling and considering it is a hole in the Russian’s game, he may resort to it in the third round.
Aspinall has the ability and importantly the speed to knock Volkov out which will make his takedown more threatening and if the fight goes to the ground, we back him to wrap up a submission. However, if this goes past the third round, we will back Volkov to finish stronger with better pacing.
Prediction: Aspinall via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Volkov via Decision
ARNOLD ALLEN VS DAN HOOKER
Arnold Allen (17-1) has gone completely under the radar in the featherweight division which has not helped by only fighting twice since 2019. He has won all eight of his UFC fights and is on a 10-fight win streak. He has fought good fighters as well including Makwan Amirkhani (2017), Mads Burnell (2018), Gilbert Melendez (2019), Nik Lentz (2020) and Sodiq Yusuff (2021). He outpointed them all besides coming back to submit Burnell in the third round.
His streak and been rewarded by welcoming Dan Hooker (21-11) back down to the division. He has recently fought some of the best lightweights in the world with mixed success. After scraping past Paul Felder (2020) in a split decision he got outpointed by Dustin Poirier (2020) in an epic war and then he got sparked out by Michael Chandler (2021). He responded with a unanimous decision over Nasrat Haqparast (2021) after awful preparations and is coming off a mauling from Islam Makhachev (2021) who cinched up an effortless kimura in the first round.
PREDICTION
Hooker’s drop down is surprising considering his struggles to make the 145 lb mark in the past although it is fair to say he has hit his ceiling in the lightweight division. If he makes weight comfortably, he should not be the underdog with a wealth of top-level experience and a significant five-inch reach advantage.
Hooker will have the edge on the feet with knockout power in all eight limbs. Allen is the better grappler and can put his power advantage to use by tying him up especially if Hooker is depleted. Flying from New Zealand to cut all that weight will be very tough and if he is drained and his chin is compromised, you have to back Allen.
Allen is extremely well-rounded and will be competitive everywhere. Hooker’s form at featherweight is patchy although, he has accumulated priceless experience at lightweight now. We are backing him to win especially as he got through a compromised camp in the Haqparast fight and there is a lot of value on him as the underdog, but it is hard to count out Allen.
Prediction: Hooker via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Hooker to win
PADDY PIMBLETT VS RODRIGO VARGAS
The Paddy Pimblett (17-3) hype train pulls into the O2 Arena in London bringing his posse of fans. The former Cage Warriors champion had a memorable UFC debut back in September last year. He was coming off two first-round finishes – a TKO over Decky Dalton (2020) and a submission over Davide Martinez (2021). Not everyone was convinced in the hype as he took on the dangerous Luigi Vendramini, but after a frenetic and shaky start, Pimblett caught the Brazilian with a perfect flurry sending him to sleep.
Rodrigo Vargas (13-4) is the man tasked with derailing the scouser. He had a tough start to his UFC career losing a unanimous decision to Alex da Silva Coelho (2019) and then he got disqualified after sending an illegal knee to the dome of Brok Weaver (2020) while he was downed. However, he got back in the win column last year and even snapped an 11-fight win streak by outpointing Zhu Rong.
PREDICTION
Vargas is cut from the same cloth as Pimblett and will bring a relentless pace and aggressively use the variety of tools he has at his disposal. They are both well-rounded with Pimblett’s strengths laying in his grappling although we can see him backing his striking.
He is full to the brim with confidence after knocking out Vendramini and he clearly has power, but his suspect defence will catch him out if he does not work on it. He is confident in his chin which is never a good trait and Vargas is a good striker.
So, we expect some feisty exchanges and Pimblett will be there to get hit when he gets carried away. However, this is a better match-up for him and we expect Vargas to try and close the distance which will fall into Pimblett’s hands.
If they tie up, we back Pimblett to get the fight to the floor and land in top position where he will get to work on a submission. He has the skill to pull off a variety of submissions and we expect him to wrap something up or get another knockout, but with the state of those odds, Vargas is a no brainer for a bet.
Prediction: Pimblett via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Vargas to win
GUNNAR NELSON VS TAKASHI SATO
It has been far too long since we last saw Gunnar Nelson (17-5-1) in the octagon. Two and a half years in fact. The end of his hiatus is warmly welcomed by fans across the globe who have been waiting since December 2018 for a win. His last was a submission over Alex Oliveira after painting his face a new colour which came after that controversial loss to Santiago Ponzinnibio (2017) which occurred after an eye poke. He then took on two welterweight monsters in Leon Edwards (2019) who earnt the split decision and then Gilbert Burns (2019) who used every pound of his weight advantage to subdue Nelson for three rounds and pick up a unanimous decision.
Claudio Silva was lined up for Nelson’s return, however a knee injury forced him off the card. Thankfully, Takashi Sato (16-4) has stepped up on short notice. He did not fight last year either but got two bouts in 2020. He dusted off Jason Witt with a simple knockout which came after a submission loss to Belal Muhammad (2019). However, he then ran into Miguel Baeza who submitted him in the second round, so Sato is also yearning for that winning feeling again.
PREDICTION
Sato is a late replacement, but this is still an exciting match-up although all Nelson’s fights seem to be. The Icelander will be giving up some weight and power which is not unusual for him, but he has all of the technique to make up for it.
Sato’s clear threat is his hands with lethal knockout power, so Nelson will have to shake off any ring rust and keep moving in his karate stance bouncing in and out of range. He has the movement and speed to cause Sato a lot of problems on the feet and he will be thankful that Sato is also a southpaw so his training will not have gone to waste.
That said, his path of least resistance will be getting the fight to the floor and looking for a submission. Sato has very good takedown defence with his judo base, but Nelson has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the division, so only needs one takedown especially as Sato has been submitted three times already in his career.
Nelson is the heavy favourite, but when you have been out the game for so long and fighting someone with one-punch knockout power, all the value is on Sato. Nonetheless, we expect Nelson to be sharp, prepared and ready to remind everyone of his multi-faceted skill set.
Prediction: Nelson via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Sato via KO/TKO
MOLLY MCCANN VS LUANA CAROLINA
Molly McCann (11-4) brings all of the noise back to the O2 Arena in London. The fan favourite is coming off a hard-fought unanimous decision win over Ji Yeon Kim which came with great relief after dropping unanimous decisions to Taila Santos (2002) and Lara Procopio (2021). In fact, all McCann’s UFC fights have ended in a unanimous decision and now hopes for one more at least against another rangy striker.
Luana Carolina (8-2) is 3-1 now in the UFC after winning her last two fights. She outpointed Priscila Cachoeira (2019) before getting mercilessly kneebarred by Ariane Lipski (2020). It was a painful one and returned a year later to earn a split decision over Poliana Botelho (2021) and a more comfortable unanimous one over Lupita Godinez last October.
PREDICTION
McCann gives up seven inches in reach, but she did well against Kim who boasted 10 inches. The difference here is that Carolina leverages her reach better using kicks. So, we expect McCann to find it more difficult to close the distance and land.
Carolina should edge the exchanges landing from range which will force the aggressive Meatball to rush in throwing wild shots before attempting a takedown. Carolina has good takedown defence which we saw against Godinez and she is also dangerous in the clinch, so this is a tough fight for McCann.
She has the aggression and output to overwhelm Carolina, but the Brazilian should frustrate McCann on the feet and if she can defend the takedowns and create space, the fight is hers.
An attritional and grinding McCann decision with a lot of clinch work or a more graceful Carolina decision is most likely. We are backing the Brazilian who is also the underdog.
Prediction: Carolina via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Carolina via Decision
JAI HERBERT VS ILIA TOPURIA
Jai Herbert (11-3) has been thrown to the wolves by the UFC. He got paired with the stalwart Francisco Trinaldo (2020) on debut and got TKO’d taking unnecessary damage thanks to Herb Dean. He got handed Renato Moicano who submitted him in the second round and the UFC scheduled another tough fight in the shape of knockout specialist Khama Worthy. However, Herbert displayed his own striking prowess with a brilliant first-round knockout.
Mike Davis was lined up for Herbert, but in vintage Herbert luck, one of the brightest prospects in the division Ilia Topuria (11-0) has filled the void. He is undefeated and coming off two sizzling knockouts. After a unanimous decision win over Youssef Zalal (2020) on debut, his renown jiu-jitsu was put to the test by taking on Damon Jackson (2020) and Ryan Hall (2021). He swatted away the grappling attempts and decided to show off another string to his bow sealing the second and third knockouts of his career.
PREDICTION
This is a more exciting match-up and a tougher one for Herbert. His chin has taken some damage and Topuria’s hands have become a serious problem. That said, Herbert should have the edge on the feet especially with a significant eight-inch reach and six-inch height advantage.
If Topuria gets cocky and decides to stand, then he could easily find himself getting peppered from range. If he decides to play it safe, then he will will take Herbert down where he has the clear advantage. If the Georgian can get his hands on Herbert, he will negate the threat and utilize his power to keep the fight on the deck where he has the skill to wrap up a submission.
That is what we expect to happen, but considering the odds, all of the value is on a Herbert win and potential knockout.
Prediction: Topuria via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Herbert to win
MIKE GRUNDY VS MAKWAN AMIRKHANI
The first scouser to grace the UFC London card is Mike Grundy (12-3) who returns hoping to bounce back from suffering back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. He is not used to losing, but after his UFC debut and TKO over And Narimani (2019), he got paired with the only featherweight who could out wrestle him. Movsar Evloev (2020) got the nod from all three judges and then he met Lando Vannata (2021) who displayed impeccable takedown defence to walk away with a split decision.
Makwan Amirkhani (16-7) is on a worse skid losing his last three. He lost unanimous decisions to Edson Barboza (2020) and Kamuela Kirk (2021) before eating a whopper of a knee from Lerone Murphy (2021). Those losses came after a brilliant submission over Danny Henry (2020) and TKO loss to Shane Burgos (2019) so has has lost four out of his last five.
PREDICTION
Grundy will go about business as usual and look to maul Amirkhani with his wrestling however, Mr Finland is also a good wrestler with exceptional jiu-jitsu. We expect both of them to put their grappling to the test which will create a fascinating battle.
So, the impactful striking will come when Amirkhani looks to land flush as Grundy shoots in. If the Liverpudlian avoids those shots, he will force the pace with while Amirkhani looks for scrambles and submission attempts.
We expect Grundy to dominate the majority of proceedings and Amirkhani will remain in the fight until the second round where he will begin to tire. Grundy will finish stronger to convince the judges and walk away with a decision.
Prediction: Grundy via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
SHAMIL ABDURAKHIMOV VS SERGEI PAVLOVICH
Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-6) has not won a fight in nearly three years. That was an impressive TKO over Marcin Tybura (2019) which capped a healthy streak including a unanimous decision over Andrei Arlovski (2018) and a knockout over Chase Sherman (2017). However, he is coming off two brutal TKO losses courtesy of Curtis Blaydes (2019) and Chris Daukaus (2021).
Sergei Pavlovich (14-1) has been even more inactive fighting only twice since his debut back in 2018. He had a baptism of fire taking on Alistair Overeem (2018) and severely threatened the veteran’s chin but eventually got taken down and knocked out himself. However, he eventually got back to winnings way by smoking Marcelo Golm (2019) and then running Maurice Greene knocking him out in the first round as well.
PREDICTION
This is good matchmaking by the UFC as they have both been very inactive but have a similar and dangerous skill set. They are both explosive strikers with suspect defence, so a knockout is likely. They can also grapple and are extremely dangerous in top position so, whoever is more aggressive is likely to remain the last man standing.
We are backing Pavlovich’s youth and power to overwhelm Abdurakhimov. As long as he respects his striking especially in the first round, Pavlovich should walk him down, catch with strikes or knees and finish the job on the deck.
Prediction: Pavlovich via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
NIKITA KRYLOV VS PAUL CRAIG
Nikita Krylov (26-8) has had a tough ride in his second stint in the UFC taking on the very best in the division. After a submission and three straight knockouts for Fight Nights Global, he was welcomed back to the big time by former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz (2018) who submitted him in the second round. He earnt a submission of his own against Ovince Saint Preux (2019) but then ran into the current champion Glover Teixeira taking him to a split decision. He bounced back again with a unanimous decision over Johnny Walker (2020) and then ran into future title contender Magomed Ankalaev (2021) losing a unanimous decision.
Paul Craig (15-4-1) is 12 fights deep into his UFC career now and has found his best form. He went 3-4 in his first seven and is 4-0-1 in his last five. He picked up routine submissions over Vinicius Moreira (2019) and Gadzhimurad (2020) sandwiching a draw with Shogun Rua (2019). He rematched the legend after the Antigulov win and TKO’d him on the floor. He then followed that up with another TKO after dislocating Jamahal Hill’s (2021) elbow in an armbar.
PREDICTION
This is the toughest fight Craig has had in years. Krylov is an experienced and well-rounded machine with experience fighting the best in the division. He is a better fighter than Craig, but the Scotsman’s great equalizer is his jiu-jitsu.
Krylov has had a lot of success in his grappling, but he cannot risk tangling on the canvas with Craig. So, we expect him to try and keep the majority of the fight standing where he will have a clear edge. Craig has dangerous kicks, but if Krylov respects his power, he should be able to dictate the tempo and win the exchanges.
Krylov has the nous to control three rounds which will force Craig to aggressively hunt the submission. Krylov has been submitted five times and as Craig is the underdog, a submission is a great shout, but we are backing Krylov.