UFC on ESPN 34 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 34? Saturday 16th April, 2022 - 21:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 34? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 34? Click here for the tickets at the O2 Arena
What channel is UFC on ESPN 34 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 34? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
VICENTE LUQUE VS BELAL MUHAMMAD
After serving as the backup for Kamaru Usman vs Colby Covington 2, Vicente Luque (21-7-1) looks to press on to finally earn his title shot. He has only lost once in his last 11 and continues to put top welterweights away. The blip came when he got outclassed on the feet in a unanimous decision to Stephen Thompson (2019). Since then, he has gone on to knock out Niko Price (2020) and Randy Brown (2020) before wrapping up a couple D’Arce chokes on Tyron Woodley (2021) and Michael Chiesa (2021). A championship fight must loom with another finish especially as other fighters get title shots with far less impressive streaks.
Belal Muhammad (20-3(1)) has also been racking up the dubs in the stacked division. His last loss was back in 2019 losing a unanimous decision to Geoff Neal. He has gone on sweep aside Curtis Millender (2019), Takashi Sato (2019), Lyman Good (2020) and Dhiego Lima (2021) before that ‘no contest’ with Leon Edwards (2021). Now, he is coming off two more unanimous decisions over former title contenders Demian Maia (2021) and Stephen Thompson (2021).
PREDICTION
Luque took home the spoils back in 2016 inflicting Muhammad’s sole knockout loss and finish. They were both quality fighters back then and now they have matured into top tier welterweights. Muhammad will have the edge when it comes to wrestling but Luque is the better striker and is also better on the ground as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. So, the question is whether Muhammad can hang with Luque on the feet and leverage his wrestling to subdue him and nullify his dangerous weapons.
We fully expect Muhammad to make this gritty and try and grind Luque down over five rounds. He will have the confidence to trade, but Luque is arguably the most potent finisher in the division and knows first-hand, he can knock Muhammad out.
Muhammad’s striking has improved a lot, but he will be smart enough to try and bank the early rounds with his wrestling tiring Luque out. However, avoiding getting clipped or dropped and submitted by Luque is a tough ask over five rounds.
This is going to be a very competitive fight, so the smart money is on a Muhammad decision considering he is the underdog, but we are backing Luque’s class and power on the feet to convince the judges or eventually find a knockout blow.
Prediction: Luque via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Muhammad via Decision
CAIO BORRALHO VS GADZHI OMARGADZHIEV
Unbeaten since 2015, the exciting up and comer Caio Borralho (10-1(1)) makes his entrance under the bright lights. After cleaning up the local scene, the Brazilian earnt a place on the Contender Series and bumped his record up with a unanimous decision over Aaron Jeffery (2021). That was not quite enough to land the contract, but he gave the UFC no choice after knocking out Jesse Murray (2021) in the first round on his second appearance on the series.
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (13-0) also makes his debut protecting his unblemished record. He has fought for a variety of promotion and is yet to be properly tested. After a unanimous decision over Vladimir Vasilyev (2020), he was also given an opportunity on the Contender Series, and it could not have gone much better, mercilessly cinching up a kneebar on Jansey Silva (2021) in the first round.
PREDICTION
A lot is expected from the Contender Series graduates especially as they have been bumped up to the co-main event slot. Omargadzhiev has three inches of height on Borralho but will be giving up four inches in reach which the he will look to utilize on the feet.
Borralho is very dangerous throwing an array of wild strikes and is also a beast on the mat with excellent jiu-jitsu. His skill set conveniently sandwich Omargadzhiev’s who is an exceptional wrestler with a dominant top game.
The key for Borralho is to not have to rely on his jiu-jitsu and keep the fight on the feet. Omargadzhiev is a decent striker, but the longer this remains standing, the more you have to back the Brazilian.
He is going to have to hunt the knockout early as it will only be a matter of time before the Russian lands a takedown and he only needs one to seal a round by flattening Borralho out and pouring on the damage.
Prediction: Omargadzhiev via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MIGUEL BAEZA VS ANDRE FIALHO
Nobody expected Miguel Baeza (10-2) to be on a two-fight skid after his third finish in three UFC fights. He TKO’d Hector Aldana (2019) and Matt Brown (2020) before finally showing off his elite jiu-jitsu by wrapping Takashi Sato (2020) up in an arm-triangle. He was unbeaten and the one to watch in the welterweight division, but went on to lose a unanimous decision in a war with Santiago Ponzinibbio (2021) and is now coming off a TKO loss to Khaos Williams in November last year.
Andre Fialho (14-4) made his UFC debut at the start of the year and was given a very tough match up in Michel Pereira. The Portugal native was coming off three straight knockouts under the UAE Warriors banner and displayed all of that boxing at UFC 270. He looked great in the first round and took Pereira the distance but it was not enough to convince any judges.
PREDICTION
Pereira and Baeza for your first two caps is not ideal. Incredibly tough fights to start a UFC campaign and understandably Baeza is the favourite. His two recent losses were disappointing, but his fights leading up to that had a lot of people tagging him as a future title contender.
He arrived as a jiu-jitsu ace and then showed off his electrifying striking. He is very explosive and athletic and he can afford to be aggressive without the worry of landing on the canvas.
We expect Fialho to have a strong start and arguably has better hands, but as soon as Baeza settles he will be able to win the exchanges on the feet and if the fight hits the ground, we fancy Baeza to inflict Fialho’s first submission loss.
Prediction: Baeza via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MAYRA BUENO SILVA VS YANAN WU
Mayra Bueno Silva (7-2-1) has not won a fight in nearly two years which is surprising considering her talent. Her last with was a ruthless armbar submission on Mara Romero Borella (2020). Since then, she threw a win over Montana De La Rosa (2021) by grabbing the fence and getting a point deducted resulting in a draw. She then met one of the brightest prospects in the division - Manon Fiorot (2021) but got outclassed in a unanimous decision to drop to 2-2-1 in the UFC.
She welcomes back Yanan Wu (12-4) who has only fought three times since 2017. That is when she made her UFC debut where she lost a unanimous decision to Gina Mazany. She returned a year later to pick up her sole UFC win by submitting Lauren Mueller (2018). Almost another year later, she lost a split decision to Mizuki Inoue (2019) and is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Joselyne Edwards (2021) over a year ago in January.
PREDICTION
The odds are stacked against Wu here who has not fought in over a year and not won since November 2018. Add in the fact that Silva has been active and is simply a better fighter. She is better on the ground and packs a lot of power in her hands and feet with good Muay Thai.
What makes this interesting is that Silva is moving back up to bantamweight which will make her even more powerful and explosive enabling her to control the grappling exchanges and offload more damage on the feet.
Prediction: Silva via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
PAT SABATINI VS TJ LARAMIE
Pat Sabatini (16-3) had his fight with Gavin Tucker fall through for a second time last week at UFC 273 but thankfully he has found a new dance partner for this weekend. He is hungry to get back in the octagon and continue his momentum of five straight wins. 2021 could not have gone much better making debut against Tristan Connelly, earning a unanimous decision, collecting his 10th submission by catching Jamall Emmers in a brilliant heel hook and then earning another unanimous decision over Tucker Lutz three months later in November.
TJ Laramie (12-4) steps up as a replacement as he is just desperate to fight. He did not make an appearance at all last year after his debut loss in 2020. He arrived to the UFC riding a four-fight win streak including a TKO over Daniel Swain on the Contender Series, but got ruthlessly submitted in the first round by Darrick Minner.
PREDICTION
The Philly native is coming in hot whereas Laramie has not won a fight since August 2020. That said, Laramie will be dangerous as long as the fight stays on the feet. He packs a lot of power in his hands and shoots to kill.
Laramie has a chance if the fight stays on the feet, but he will be giving up four inches in reach and likes to use his striking to set up a clinch and drag the fight to the ground which will be entering Sabatini’s wheelhouse.
Considering the odds and Laramie’s power, a knockout is worth a small punt, but we are firmly backing Sabatini here. He can hold his own on the feet and has the grappling to take the fight away from Laramie. He should be able to control the Canadian with his wrestling and his jiu-jitsu is good enough to eventually find a submission.
Prediction: Sabatini via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Laramie via KO/TKO
MOUNIR LAZZEZ VS ANGE LOOSA
Mounir Lazzez (10-2) is pumped just to stay on the card after Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos pulled out this week. The Middle Eastern star is coming off the second loss of his career in a disappointing performance. He had an exceptional debut on Fight Island against Abdul Razak Alhassan (2020) putting on a striking clinic on his way to a unanimous decision. However, he then took on the veteran Warlley Alves who controlled him with his grappling before finishing him with a brutal body kick.
Ange Loosa (8-2) steps up on just four days’ notice. He is 2-2 in his last four losing a split decision to Jonathan Thomson (2018 - LFA), responding with a split decision of his own against Colin Lubberts (2019 – Titan FC). That was followed by an exciting Contender Series battle with Jack Della Maddalena where he fell on the wrong side of a unanimous decision, but he is coming off a good win over John Howard less than two weeks ago picking up a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Lazzez is obviously the favourite, but late replacements are always dangerous when they have nothing to lose especially as Loosa possesses knockout power and will not go away until the bell.
Lazzez will attempt to conduct the tempo as usual trying to pick Loosa apart from range with his jab and long kicks. Judging by his fight with Alvez, he should try and maintain the distance at all costs. Loosa is nowhere near Alves’ level, but it is a good blueprint to nullify ‘The Sniper’s’ skills.
We expect Loosa to be competitive on the feet so there is value considering the odds. However, Lazzez has had a full camp and is a top tier striker who should be able to dictate the pace and win the rounds with his output.
Prediction: Lazzez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Loosa to win
DEVIN CLARK VS WILLIAM KNIGHT
Devin Clark (12-6) fights for the first time this year and he is desperate for a win. His last wins came in 2020 when he earnt unanimous decisions over Dequan Townsend and Alonzo Menifield. However, he then faced a step-up in competition getting submitted by Anthony Smith (2020) and then outpointed again by Ion Cutelaba (2021).
William Knight (11-3) has also been inconsistent in his young UFC career. He exploded onto the scene with a TKO on the Contender Series and earnt a measured unanimous decision over Aleksa Camur (2020) on debut. He then got outpointed by Da Un Jung (2021) before reeling of a knockout over Fabio Cherant and another unanimous decision over Alonzo Menifield the same year. However, Maxim Grishin halted the momentum with a classy unanimous decision win.
PREDICTION
These chunky boys step up from light heavyweight and it is good to see the UFC are not just pitting one of them up against a natural heavyweight. So, this is good matchmaking and we should get to see the best version of themselves in terms of strength and explosiveness.
Clark is a strong man and very bottom-heavy which helps his wrestling, Knight will have the power advantage and also employs his wrestling to grind out wins when he does not have the energy to uncork knockout blows.
They are very evenly matched as powerful wrestlers without a weight cut to worry about. We are backing Clark’s cardio to help him edge the wrestling especially in the second and third round. Knight will be giving up the range, but his explosiveness always makes the knockout a possibility.
Prediction: Clark via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Knight via KO/TKO
LINA LANSBERG VS PANNIE KIANZAD
Pannie Kianzad (15-6) is hoping to bounce back from getting her four-fight win streak snapped back in September last year. She catapulted herself into the rankings with quality unanimous decisions over Jessica-Rose Clark (2019), Bethe Correia (2020), Sijara Eubanks (2020) and Alexis Davis (2021). However, the run was halted by the title gatekeeper Raquel Pennington who just had too much class and experience for Kianzad earning the decision.
It's been too long since we last saw Lina Lansberg (10-5). She last fought in January 2020 when she got out wrestled in a unanimous decision to Sara McMann. She was just starting to get some momentum going too after unanimous decisions over Tonya Evinger and Macy Chiasson in 2019, but now just wants to get back in the cage perform.
PREDICTION
The two striking Swede’s provide an exciting match-up over nine years on from their first MMA bout. It was all the back in 2012 when Lansberg made her professional debut with Kianzad earning the TKO to go 3-0. That was actually their second meeting after the National Featherweight Shootfighting Championship when Lansberg earnt gold and the first bragging rights.
Kianzad’s grappling was the difference in 2012, but the biggest difference here is Kianzad’s activity and improvement. Lansberg is 40 years old now and gave birth last year whereas Kianzad is near her prime.
Lansberg will still be dangerous on the feet and in the clinch, but this is not a good match-up for a return and we expect Kianzad to have too much for her fellow Swede, leveraging her power advantage in the clinch and sealing a few takedowns to sway the judges.
Prediction: Kianzad via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DRAKKAR KLOSE VS BRANDON JENKINS
Drakkar Klose (11-2-1) has struggled to catch a break since his epic brawl with Beneil Dariush over two years ago. He ended up getting sparked out in the back-and-forth scrap which snapped an impressive unanimous decision streak beating Lando Vannata (2018), Bobby Green (2018) and Christos Giagos (2019). He was then scheduled to fight Jai Herbert in February 2021 but one of his cornermen tested positive for COVID and Jeremy Stephens decided to aggressively shove him at their weigh-ins causing a spinal injury. Thankfully, he still has a fight for UFC on ESPN 34, but it has not been straightforward.
Nikolas Motta was lined up for his return, but the fight fell through, but Brandon Jenkins (15-8) has stepped up to the plate. He has been more active fighting seven times since Klose fought going 4-3. He collected three of those wins on his way to his UFC debut including a brilliang flying knee knockout over Jacob Kilburn (2021) for the PFL. However, the debut did not go to plan falling on the wrong side of a knockout courtesy of Zhu Rong (2021).
PREDICTION
Klose only has two losses on the record with one of them being against the current #4 ranked lightweight. That said, he has not fought in a hot minute, and he is fighting a mad man with nothing to lose.
Klose is the better fighter with quality experience, technically sound striking, grappling and solid cardio. However, will need to shake off any rust quickly as Jenkins will aggressively hunt the finish and we expect him to feel Klose out to begin with and then start to offload his flashy attacks with spinning elbows and flying knees.
Jenkins can certainly capitalize if Klose is rusty, but Klose is too good to make any mistakes and he may not make it look pretty resorting to his grappling, but he should get the job done.
Prediction: Klose via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Jenkins to win
JORDAN LEAVITT VS TREY ODGEN
Jordan Leavitt (8-1) returns to the APEX for the fifth time. He got his first taste on the Contender Series when he wrapped up a slick arm-triangle on Jose Flores (2020). He then made a spectacular UFC debut brutally slamming Matt Wiman (2020) on his skull to extend his flawless record to eight. However, his first bump in the road was a unanimous decision loss to Claudio Puelles (2021) but he responded with a vintage submission win and inverted triangle on Matt Sayles in December last year.
Victor Rodriguez was lined up for Leavitt, but he has dropped out giving Trey Ogden (15-4) the opportunity to make his UFC debut. He has not fought anyone of note, but he has won his last three including his own submission win in front of Dana White. He wrapped up an arm-triangle on JJ Okanovich at Fury FC 53 – Lookin’ For A Fight to set up this opportunity.
PREDICTION
Ogden has little to lose and he is very dangerous. Interestingly, his threats also lie in his grappling as a prolific submission artist. All 11 of his finishes have come via submission, but his offence is certainly better than his defence, so we expect both of these guys to test their grappling skills.
Ogden is also a better striker, so he should try and keep this on the feet and not test his ego on the mat. We expect Leavitt to shoot in for a takedown sooner rather than later, especially if he starts to get tagged.
We can see Ogden lighting Leavitt up on the feet, but we can also see Leavitt controlling the rounds with his wrestling. Depending on how tired Ogden gets, a submission may open itself up and as Leavitt is the underdog, he is the smart pick.