UFC Fight Night 205 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 205? Sunday 24th April, 2022 - 00:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 205? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 205? Click here for the tickets at the O2 Arena
What channel is UFC Fight Night 205 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 205? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
AMANDA LEMOS VS JESSICA ANDRADE
Amanda Lemos (11-1-1) graces a surprise main event slot and since dropping down to strawweight she is emerging as a future title contender. She has competed up at bantamweight and carried her power down two divisions winning all five of her UFC bouts. She submitted Miranda Granger (2019) and outpointed Mizuki Inoue (2020) before knocking out Livia Renata Souza (2021) and Montserrat Ruiz (2021) in the first round which put everyone on notice. She then proved she can hang with the upper echelon of the division earning a split decision over Angela Hill (2021).
Now, Lemos walks out for the biggest fight of her career taking on the former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade (23-9). She drops back down after her short quest for the flyweight gold. She folded top contender Katlyn Chookagian (2020) with a beautiful liver shot to set up a contest with the Queen of the division Valentina Shevchenko (2021) who simply had too much class TKOing Andrade in the second round. She then swatted Cynthia Calvillo away (2021) with another TKO but drops back down to 115 lbs for this exciting match up.
PREDICTION
This is the most exciting matchup we have seen in the female divisions for a while. Andrade is one of the most experienced and exciting female fighters on the roster who started her UFC career up at bantamweight. Like Lemos, her power has carried down and she always hunts the finish.
Lemos is also dangerous everywhere. Her bread and butter is her striking with technique to match her power sniping from range. She is very powerful in the clinch with ferocious ground-and-pound. That said, this is a significant step up in competition.
Andrade has shared the cage with the best for years now but what may work against her is the confidence in her hands. She presses forward throwing wild hooks with no regard for her chin and Lemos has the technique to find it. Lemos also has the technique and power to defend the takedown so it is going to be very interesting to see where this fight goes.
She needs to be patient and frustrate Andrade by tagging her from range with one or two shot combinations and eating her legs up with kicks. However, we have not seen enough from Lemos to prove she has the nous and patience to do that to someone of the calibre of Andrade.
We are very high on her and expect her to look great in the first round, and could even catch Andrade clean if she rushes in disrespecting her skill. However, as long as the former champ shows some care for her chin and moves her head like she did in the second fight with Rose Namajunas, she should display her class to seal a late finish or decision.
Prediction: Andrade via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Lemos to win
CLAY GUIDA VS CLAUDIO PUELLES
The stalwart Clay Guida (37-21) walks out for his 33rd UFC fight and he is still picking up wins. He has lost three of his last five, but they were to Jim Miller (2019 – submission), Bobby Green (2020 – unanimous decision) and Mark Madsen (2021 – split decision). Tough fights, but he displayed he has still got UFC pedigree with a unanimous decision over Michael Johnson (2021) and his most recent submission win over Leonardo Santos (2021) which earnt him a ‘performance of the night’ proving there is still life in the old dog yet.
Claudio Puelles (11-2) has been in the UFC since 2016, but only has five fights under the bright lights. After getting TKO’d on his debut by Martin Bravo, he was out for nearly two years, but it was like he never left submitting Felipe Silva (2018). He has only fought three times since but has extended his streak by outpointing Marcos Mariano (2019) and Jordan Leavitt (2021) before submitting Chris Gruetzemacher back in December.
PREDICTION
Obvious matchmaking here as the crafty old veteran mans the gate for the 26-year-old prospect. Everyone knows what to expect from Guida now and that is to bring a relentless pace, throw a few strikes and shoot in for takedown after takedown.
Guida’s cardio and wrestling has given him this longevity and interestingly, Puelles’ strength also lies in his grappling. However, his cardio and output is not on Guida’s level and arguably his striking is not either.
Expect a strong start from Puelles and considering the miles on Guida’s chin now, Puelles can tag that chin, drop him and find a submission. However, if this goes past the first round, Guida may run away with it to seal a decision.
Prediction: Guida via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Puelles via Submission
MAYCEE BARBER VS MONTANA DE LA ROSA LOWDOWN
For all the hype, Maycee Barber (9-2) still has not got her UFC career up and running. When she bulldozed her way through Hannah Cifers (2018), JJ Aldrich (2019) and Gillian Robertson (2019) finishing all of them via TKO, she officially announced herself as the next big thing in the flyweight division. However, she got royally derailed by Rozanne Modafferi (2020) who capitalized on a knee injury to Barber to grind out a unanimous decision. She then lost another decision to the talented Alexa Grasso (2021) to force a lot of fickle fans to write her off, but she is coming off a win albeit a very tight one and split decision over Miranda Maverick (2021).
Montana De La Rosa (12-6-1) pulled out of their first date back at UFC 269 in December, but thankfully they have been rescheduled for this weekend. She is also coming off a win and very impressive TKO over Ariane Lipski (2021) to bump her UFC record up to 5-2-1. That was her first win since February 2020 losing a unanimous decision to Viviane Araujo and poaching a draw off Mayra Bueno Silva (2021).
MAYCEE BARBER VS MONTANA DE LA ROSA PREDICTION
The UFC clearly want to see these two go at it and so do we. They are both talented flyweights with De La Rosa relying on her grappling and Barber, her power. Barber is well-rounded but she will want to avoid ending up on her back.
We expect them to exchange a few takedowns trying to assume top position. Barber will be able to land more damage with ground-and-pound whereas De La Rosa will be more technical trying to set up a submission.
Neither are great strikers, but Barber’s confidence and power could overwhelm De La Rosa before they tie up in a clinch or one of them land a takedown. We expect a very even fight here and although De La Rosa has a clear advantage in jiu-jitsu, Barber’s power should be able to stifle it and win the exchanges on the feet and assume more control time on the deck.
Prediction: Barber via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: De La Rosa via Submission or Decision
ALEXANDER ROMANOV VS CHASE SHERMAN
Alexander Romanov (15-0) originally filled in for Rodrigo Nascimento to take on Tanner Boser but the American then pulled out leaving the UFC scrambling for a replacement. extend his perfect record. Thankfully he is still on the card and gets the opportunity to extend his perfect record. He kicked off his UFC career by steamrolling Roque Martinez (2020) and Marcos Rogerio de Lima (2020) with submissions and fought to a hard split decision with fellow grappling prospect Juan Espino (2021). He is now coming off another mauling and TKO over Jared Vanderaa (2021).
Chase Sherman (15-9) is the man filling the Boser void. He was recently released from the UFC for a second time after losing his third fight in a row dropping unanimous decisions to Andrei Arlovski (2021) and Parker Porter (2021) before getting submitted by Jake Collier back in January. He has been granted a four-fight deal for stepping up, so the UFC are very happy Romanov still gets to eat.
PREDICTION
Sherman is getting fed to the Moldovan here in a clear mismatch. Sherman can cause damage on the feet with his quick hands. However, it should only be a matter of time before Romanov shoots in for a takedown, drags Sherman to the canvas and rains down clubbing ground-and-pound until Sherman wilts or opens up a submission for Romanov to pounce on.
Prediction: Romanov via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
LANDO VANNATA VS CHARLES JOURDAIN
Lando Vannata (12-5-2) is coming off very impressive win. It was only a split decision back in May last year, but he dropped down to featherweight to take on the Commonwealth calibre wrestler Mike Grundy and managed to defend 17 out of his 20 takedowns attempts. He is now 4-5-2 in the UFC and is hoping he can get a more consistent run going by continuing his new quest at 145 lbs.
Charles Jourdain’s (12-4-1) UFC career has also been a mixed bag so far. He has been very active fighting seven times since his debut in 2019. He is 3-3-1 in the big time now picking up two of those wins in his last three fights knocking out Marcelo Rojo (2021) and outpointing Andre Ewell (2021) after getting submitted by Julian Erosa (2021).
PREDICTION
This has got ‘Fight of the Night’ written all over it. They are both extremely skilful and exciting strikers, but they can also grapple. Vannata showed off his NCAA Division 1 wrestling in his last fight and Jourdain is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
That said, we expect a thrilling war on the feet. Jourdain will constantly move and start his attack with leg kicks, and we feel his speed will be crucial here. Vannata has the experience on his side and the durability to remain competitive for three rounds although they both have the ability to shut the lights out with one strike.
This should be a back-and-forth battle where we feel Jourdain’s speed and movement will edge the exchanges to earn a decision.
Prediction: Jourdain via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JORDAN WRIGHT VS MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT
Jordan Wright (12-2(1)) has a late change of opponent with Roman Kopylov dropping out. He is desperate to bounce back from suffering the second knockout loss of his career getting predictably erased by Bruno Silva back in December. He got brutally finished for the first time a year prior by Joaquin Buckley, but he bounced back by dishing out a knockout of his own on Jamie Pickett (2021) and hopes to respond in similar fashion this weekend.
Marc-Andre Barriault (13-5(1)) steps up on short notice and is also hoping to bounce back from a knockout loss. He was coming off two wins to welcome Chidi Njokuani to the UFC and it could not have gone worse getting knocked out for the first time in his career just 16 seconds into the fight. Now, he is gambling on a short notice fight to get back in the win column.
PREDICTION
This is a very different fight for Wright fighting somebody more active with a grappling heavy approach. Barriault is coming off the most devastating loss of his career abruptly halting any momentum and he cannot afford to leave his chin exposed again against Wright.
‘The Beverly Hills Ninja’ is a flashy striker with a lot of holes in his game. He gets hit a lot and although he has decent takedown defence, his grappling has not been tested in the UFC and Barriault is the man to do it.
It is worrying to see the Canadian return so quick after that knockout and Wright is going to target that chin with an array elaborate techniques. We expect some feisty exchanges on the feet, but Barriault should be able to snatch the rounds by closing the distance by clinching Wright up and nullifying him with his power advantage. This is also at catchweight bout up at 195 lbs which will suit Barriault.
Prediction: Barriault via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DWIGHT GRANT VS SERGEY KHANDOZHKO
Dwight Grant (11-4) is just about managing to stay afloat in the welterweight division. He is 3-3 in the UFC after dropping a split decision to Francisco Trinaldo back in October last year which came after a split decision win over Stefan Sekulic five months prior at UFC 261.
He takes on Sergey Khandozhko (26-6-1) who arrived with a fair amount of hype, but after his two UFC appearances in 2019, we have not seen him. He handed Rostem Akman his first loss beating him via a unanimous decision on debut, but then lost one against Rustam Khabilov five months later. There is no harm losing to Khabilov but no win in nearly three years is alarming.
PREDICTION
It is tough to predict how Khandozhko will perform with how long has been out especially fighting someone of the calibre of Grant. Grant has only lost to top fighters and possesses dangerous knockout power.
Expect him to fire off the left hook and overhand right from range with his extremely long reach. Khandozhko also has a healthy reach but will be giving up two inches. If he comes in confident and can avoid the predicable bombs from Grant, he can start to rack up the points with his volume.
With Grant’s inconsistency and Khandozhko’s inactivity, this is certainly one to stay clear of from a betting point of view. We are backing Khandozhko, but this is tough to call.
Prediction: Khandozhko via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
TYSON PEDRO VS IKE VILLANUEVA
December 2018 was Tyson Pedro’s (7-3) last appearance. He got TKO’d by Shogun Rua after blowing out his knee which he spent over a year recovering from. That was his third loss in his last four fights including a unanimous decision loss to Ilir Latifi (2017), a submission win over Saparbek Safarov (2018) and a submission loss to Ovince Saint Preux (2018). He finally returns and is under a lot of pressure to get back in the win column.
Ike Villanueva (18-13) is under even more pressure after losing four of his five UFC fights all via knockout. Chase Sherman (2020) and Jordan Wright (2020) gave him a harsh welcome and he clung onto his UFC career by starching Vinicius Moreira (2021) but is coming off two more poundings courtesy of Marcin Prachnio (2021) and Nicolae Negumereanu (2021).
PREDICTION
Coming back after a three-and-a-half-year layoff is always difficult, but the UFC have given him a kind match-up. Villanueva has dangerous hands with clear knockout power, but he is not UFC calibre and has been finished 12 times in his 13 losses.
Pedro will no doubt be rusty, but he is a natural finisher with a lot of paths to victory here. He has the technique to drop Villanueva on the feet and if the fight does go to the floor, a submission will be waiting for him. That is only if he can avoid The Hurricane’s right hand and being such a big underdog against someone who has not fought in over three years, he is worth a punt.
Prediction: Pedro via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MARCIN PRACHNIO VS PHILIPE LINS
After picking up the most important win of his career in outpointing Khalil Rountree Jr, Marcin Prachnio (14-5) made in two in a row after finishing Ike Vilanueva with a beautiful body kick. It is difficult to read these wins as Villanueva is not UFC calibre and Rountree either looks like a murderer or does not want to be there. Either way, it was a quality unanimous decision and knockout to recover from getting knocked out by Sam Alvey (2018 – debut), Magomed Ankalaev (2018) and Mike Rodriguez (2020).
Philipe Lins (14-5) has also been out for a while last gracing the octagon in June 2020. It was his second UFC fight where he met Tanner Boser and it could not have gone worse getting knocked out in the first round. That came after a unanimous decision loss on his debut against Andrei Arlovski (2020) so they were two very tough fights to start a UFC campaign, but he is under a lot of pressure here to get the dub.
PREDICTION
Lins drops down light heavyweight again which could bring the best out of him or make his return even harder. We have all been waiting a while to see the form that won him the 2018 PFL heavyweight tournament where he reeled off three finishes including a submission and knockouts over Jared Rosholt and Josh Copeland.
Excitingly, Prachnio is also a dangerous striker with knockout power, and they are both there to be hit so we can see a knockout here. Lins has the grappling advantage but neither of them have attempted a takedown so far in the UFC, so expect them to stand in front of each other and swing for the fences.