UFC 272 - Breakdowns & Predictions
COLBY COVINGTON VS JORGE MASVIDAL FACTS
When is UFC 272? Sunday 6th March, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 272? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 272? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 272
What channel is UFC 272 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 272? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
COLBY COVINGTON VS JORGE MASVIDAL
Colby Covington (16-3) has come to terms of simply losing to the better man in his title fights with Kamaru Usman. They matched up so similarly and he gave him his toughest fights, but he suffered a fifth-round stoppage in their first clash in 2019 and then a unanimous decision in November last year after that dominant TKO victory over Tyron Woodley in 2020.
Jorge Masvidal (35-15) is also coming off two humbling’s handed out by Usman. He became a superstar after knocking out Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz in 2019, but has crashed back down to earth. He predictably got wrestled for five rounds after taking the fight on short notice in their first meeting and then got a taste of his own medicine in the rematch last year getting shot with one of the cleanest straight right hands you will see.
PREDICTION
For Masvidal, this will be either light work or a gruelling and punishing evening. He took Usman’s striking too lightly in his last fight, but he knows Covington does not possess that knockout power, so he will be aggressive whenever there is space. If he cannot create space, Covington will do to him what Usman did their first fight.
Covington has very similar grappling statistics to Usman which is relevant as they have shared opponents. Usman took Masvidal down seven times in 18 attempts over the two fights and if Covington has similar success, he will drain the gas tank blunting his weapons.
That said, Masvidal has hours of sparring time with Covington and spending seven rounds with Usman will only help. Covington also likes to spend time on the feet to set up take downs and the longer he does against Masvidal, the more likely he will get caught with violent combinations and body kicks.
So, there is value on a Masvidal knockout, but there is even more value on a late Covington stoppage as he will be relentless if the fight goes into the championship rounds hunting the back in between relentless ground-and-pound. We back Masvidal to survive especially as this is a feud between old friends with a lot of pride at stake, but it will be a tough night if it goes past the third.
Prediction: Covington via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Masvidal via KO/TKO
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS VS RENATO MOICANO
Rafael dos Anjos (30-13) misses out on the opportunity to fight Rafael Fiziev again as the Kyrgyzstani recovers from COVID-19. It is gutting for everyone, but thankfully the former lightweight champion is still on the card. He starts his second quest at 155 lbs after losing four of his last five fights up at 170 lbs. He is a ‘tweener’ who struggles to make lightweight but is just too small up at welterweight which was evident in his losses to top grapplers Colby Covington (2018), Kamaru Usman (2018), Leon Edwards (2019) and Michael Chiesa (2020) who all grinded out unanimous decisions. He dropped back down to lightweight in his last fight back in November 2020 but has another last-minute drop-out with Islam Makhachev biting the dust that time. Fortunately, Paul Felder filled in a like a savage but the Brazilian won the split decision.
Renato Moicano (16-4) is the man stepping up on short notice. He has also changed weight classes recently, but he is a former featherweight who has moved up. He got knocked out by Jose Aldo (2019) and Chan Sung Jung (2019) which happens to most featherweights, but that forced him up where he was welcomed to the division by Damir Hadzovic. It could not have gone better submitting him in the first round, but he then ran into Fiziev (2020) who had too much power and class on the feet knocking him out in the first round. However, he has regained momentum by submitting Jai Herbert (2021) and Alexander Hernandez which was less than a month ago.
PREDICTION
Hats off to Moicano for taking this fight, but this is an awful match-up for him. Dos Anjos has not fought in a minute, but he has already had a full training camp and will have an answer for everything Moicano has to offer.
Weight will be a key factor. This is a catchweight bout at 160 lbs which is probably the perfect weight for dos Anjos. Moicano is the longer fighter with a two-inch height and reach advantage and will look bigger, but he will still be giving up a lot of power.
He will still have to cut weight this week and his cardio will be compromised. It is hard to see how he wins this, and he will have to be aggressive. His clear strength is his jiu-jitsu however, dos Anjos has one of the most underrated ground games in the UFC as a high-level black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
He has the wrestling and power to neutralize Moicano’s grappling, and we do not see him having much luck on the feet wither. Dos Anjos is a much better striker who will negate the reach with his technique targeting the legs and body with thunderous kicks from his southpaw stance.
This is dos Anjos’ to lose who should be better wherever the fight goes and if it goes into the third round, dos Anjos will capitalize on a fatigued Moicano.
Prediction: Dos Anjos via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
EDSON BARBOZA VS BRYCE MITCHELL
Edson Barboza (22-10) walks out for his 27th UFC fight and has looked superb since dropping down to featherweight although he is now 2-2 in the division after getting TKO’d by Giga Chikadze in August last year. It was one of the very few occasions you will see him get outclassed on the feet and it came after he put on an absolute clinic against Shane Burgos three months prior eventually putting him away with a swipe to the temple causing a delayed knockout.
Bryce Mitchell (14-0) is still yet to taste defeat professionally with five UFC fights under his belt. He got subbed by Brad Katona in the semis of The Ultimate Fighter 27 but was given a shot in the finale against fellow contestant Tyler Diamond (2018) who he beat via unanimous decision. He has gone on to outpoint Bobby Moffett (2019), wrap Matt Sayles (2019) up in an incredible twister and earn two more unanimous decisions over the experienced Charles Rosa (2020) and Andre Fili (2020).
PREDICTION
Mitchell’s strength is Barboza’s weakness but, this is a giant step-up in competition for the Arkansas native. He is a wizard on the mat and relentless in pursuit of the takedown which is a proven strategy against Barboza.
However, he has not fought someone with the takedown defence of Barboza and the Brazilian is also a natural lightweight who will have the power advantage. His takedown defence is 78% which includes fights with the likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov and Kevin Lee.
Mitchell will be able to tie Barboza up for periods of time and pin him against the fence, but he will need to mask his attempts as Barboza is too seasoned and powerful to get controlled by Mitchell’s predictable takedowns.
He will have to entertain some striking exchanges and that is when he will taste the calibre of one of the best strikers in the division. Barboza is a stick of dynamite with no fuse and he will chew him up like a woodchipper with lightening kicks to the legs and body.
Mitchell has to cling on to Barboza from the bell and we cannot see him doing that for 15 minutes, so we are backing Barboza to break Mitchell down with an array of technical and vicious strikes to earn his 14th knockout. He is also the underdog so is a no-brainer for a bet.
Prediction: Barboza via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Barboza to win
KEVIN HOLLAND VS ALEX OLIVEIRA
Kevin Holland (21-7(1)) takes the plunge back down to welterweight. After tying the record for the most UFC wins in a calendar year (2020) with five, he crashed back down to earth the following year losing dominant unanimous decisions to Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori before getting submitted by Kyle Daukaus but only after a clash of heads which resulted in a ‘no contest’.
Alex Oliveira (22-11-1(2)) is also without a win in his last three which has seen him slump to 2-6 in his last eight. He has fought weapons throughout his 21-fight UFC career, but consistency has always been his downfall. He is coming off submission losses to Shavkat Rakhmonov (2020) and Randy Brown (2021) before a decision loss to Niko Price (2021).
PREDICTION
Welcoming Holland down from middleweight while on a three-fight skid is not ideal and Oliveira has to hope the weight cut depletes Holland. His striking was a threat to anyone up at 185 lbs and he will have a significant five-inch reach and four-inch height advantage.
Oliveira is very well-rounded, but if he has any sense, he has to take a leaf out of Brunson and Vettori’s book and wrestle him for three rounds. He does not have the skill, size or power of those two, but that is his only real chance of winning this. Even if he gets the fight to the floor, Holland will be dangerous off his back with submission attempts and even strikes (just ask Jacare Souza).
Oliveira has a solid chin and has only been knocked out once in his career but the longer this stays on the feet, the more likely it will be that Holland finds the knockout. If Oliveira decides to wrestle for three rounds, he has a chance, but he is too erratic to stick to a boring game plan and we are backing Holland to capitalize on any space and even hand the Brazilian his second knockout loss.
Prediction: Holland via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Oliveira via Submission
SERGEY SPIVAK VS GREG HARDY
Sergey Spivak (13-3) was just beginning to gain some serious momentum in the heavyweight division after earning a majority decision over Carlos Felipe (2020), knocking out Jared Vanderaa (2021) and a unanimous decision over Alexey Oleynik (2021) but then he ran into the hottest heavyweight prospect right now, Tom Aspinall (2021) to ruthlessly TKO’d him in the first round.
Greg Hardy (7-4) is coming off two knockout losses to Marcin Tybura (2020) and Tai Tuivasa (2021) finding out natural athleticism and power cannot make up for fighting experience. Despite the losses, the former Defensive End has shown promise and ability to win well as we saw when he earnt a unanimous decision over Yorgan de Castro (2020) and TKO over Maurice Greene (2020).
PREDICTION
The UFC are not giving Hardy any breaks here coming off two losses as Spivak is another skilled mixed martial artist with quality wins on the record including Tuivasa and Oleynik. He has the technique advantage on the feet and is on another level in the grappling realm.
However, Hardy’s power and speed is his equalizer. He rocked Tuivasa and is more than capable of knocking out the Moldovan. On paper, Spivak should win this and if he decides to simply grapple, he should wrap up a submission, especially if this goes into the third round when Hardy tires.
Hardy is continuing to improve and his explosiveness will always make a knockout possible so that is the value bet as the underdog, but the ‘Polar Bear’ should take this.
Prediction: Spivak via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Hardy via KO/TKO
JALIN TURNER VS JAMIE MULLARKEY
Jalin Turner (11-5) had a shaky UFC start. He moved up to welterweight for his debut which unfortunately for him was against Vicente Luque (2018) who starched him in the first round. He moved back down to lightweight and TKO’d Callan Potter (2019) but then lost a unanimous decision to Matt Frevola (2019). However, he is back on the march after TKOing Josh Culibao (2020) and submitted Brok Weaver (2020) and Uros Medic (2021) handing him his first ever loss.
Jamie Mullarkey (14-4) also had a rough start losing his first two UFC fights. He lost unanimous decisions to Brad Riddell (2019) and Fares Ziam (2020) but has responded perfectly with two knockouts. He gave Khama Worthy (2021) a taste of his own medicine in the first round and then pulled off a ‘performance of the night’ against Devonte Smith (2021) finishing him in the second round.
PREDICTION
Turner is the rangiest lightweight on the roster and will have three inches in height and reach over Mullarkey although he will only be able to make that count if he can maintain the distance.
We have seen the improvements in Mullarkey’s striking, but if he decides to stand and trade with Turner, he will get picked apart from range. We expect him to make this fight ugly and close the distance by tying Turner up in his clinch and trying take him down.
He is incredibly durable but, Turner only needs to tag him a few times to change the course of the fight. We are backing Mullarkey to be able to close the distance for the majority of the bout, hurt him with body shots and tie him up for long enough to convince the judges, but a Turner finish is also likely.
Prediction: Mullarkey via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Turner via finish
MARINA RODRIGUEZ VS YAN XIAONAN
Marina Rodriguez (15-1) has been getting handed some of the best fighters in the division fight after fight and still only has one loss on the record. That was Carla Esparza (2020) who she took to a split decision. She has since TKO’d Amanda Ribas (2021) and earnt unanimous decisions against Michelle Waterson (2021) and Mackenzie Dern (2021).
Yan Xiaonan (13-2(1)) is coming off her first loss in the UFC which was also to Carla Esparza back in May last year. She inevitably got out wrestled but fell victim to Esparza’s first finish since 2014. That TKO snapped an impressive six-fight winning streak in the UFC including a unanimous decision to Claudia Gadelha.
PREDICTION
Entering the UFC, the big question about Rodriguez was her grappling and takedown defence. However, she has found a way to beat top grapplers and she will be relieved that she has now been paired up with a fellow striker.
Rodriguez is the slightly rangier fighter and has an important power advantage. Xiaonan is solid technically and has great hand speed, but Rodriguez will cause damage from range and in the clinch.
As soon as they tie up, Rodriguez will look to dismantle Xiaonan with elbows and knees throwing power hooks on the exit. Xiaonan is a quality striker and has the ability to take the fight to the floor, but Rodriguez has the takedown defence to keep the fight standing and show her superiority.
Prediction: Rodriguez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rodriguez via KO/TKO
NICOLAE NEGUMEREANU VS KENNEDY NZECHUKWU
Nicolae Negumereanu (11-1) suffered his first professional lost on his UFC debut – a fate many have suffered. He was 9-0 and had finished all his victims but met Saparbek Safarov (2019) and lost a unanimous decision. He responded well by scraping past Alexsa Camur (2021) in a split decision and got back to old habits four months later in October by knocking out Ike Vilanueva.
Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-2) experienced that same fate by getting submitted by Paul Craig (2019) on debut. He also bounced back well earning a unanimous decision over Darko Stosic (2019) and knocking out Carlos Ulberg (2021) and Danilo Marques (2021). However, he got a taste of his own medicine in his last fight by getting buried by Da Un Jung who handed Nzechukwu is second loss with the help of some devastating elbows.
PREDICTION
These guys are cut from a similar cloth as natural finishers, but Nzechukwu will boast a significant five-inch height and reach advantage. We expect both fighters to land causing early damage.
We expect Negumereanu to be aggressive as usual, but if Nzechukwu can frustrate him by utilizing his reach to stay out of range, the Romanian may swing wilder emptying the gas tank.
If he begins to tire, Nzechukwu will begin to dictate proceedings with his jab and landing more often. If Negumereanu fights smart, he will mix in strikes with takedowns, but it remains to be seen whether he has that nous.
This is very tough to call so if you want to bet, go for the underdog in Negumereanu.
Prediction: Nzechukwu via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Negumereanu via finish
MARYNA MOROZ VS MARIYA AGAPOVA
For somebody who has been in the UFC for seven years, Maryna Moroz (10-3) has gone rather unnoticed. She is 5-3 on the big stage with her last seven fights ending via decision. She lost to Carla Esparza (2017) and Angela Hill (2018) and gained some momentum after getting past Sabina Mazo (2019) and Mayra Bueno Silva (2020) which was the ‘fight of the night’ but that was two years ago now.
Mariya Agapova (10-2) has done the opposite only making her debut in June 2020 and making a lot of noise. She burst onto the scene wrecking Hannah Cifers (2020) and putting her out of her misery with a first-round submission. She then got spectacularly derailed and TKO’d by Shana Dobson (2020) who is one of the poorer fighters on the entire roster. However, it will prove a valuable lesson and she preserved the gas tank in her next fight against Sabina Mazo (2021) sealing a submission in the third round.
PREDICTION
This is a great fight especially as there it is a bit of beef here. They are both strikers by trade, but with a combined 10 submissions on the record. They match-up similarly physically, but Agapova has the power advantage.
Moroz fights a lot more patient which will be key. Agapova will come out the gate aggressive so the Ukrainian will have to weather the early storm. Agapova is very explosive, but she cannot keep up the pace for three rounds and Moroz has the technique and grappling to capitalize.
Moroz is an excellent boxer and if the fight stretches deep into the second round, we would favour her to win a decision. However, Agapova has been more active and is improving at a faster rate. We are backing her, but this is very tough to call.
Prediction: Agapova via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Moroz via Decision
BRIAN KELLEHER VS UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV
Brian Kelleher (24-12) is hoping to produce his longest winning streak in the UFC with three. He has stumbled against the top guys such as Cody Stamann (2020) and Ricky Simon (2021) but he is coming off two unanimous decisions over Domingo Pilarte and Kevin Croom both last year.
Contrastingly, Umar Nurmagomedov (13-0) does not know what it feels like to lose in MMA. Another Nurmagomedov who is a grappling monster, steamrolled his way to 12 wins before eventually making his UFC debut. He was paired with Sergey Morozov and looked at home notching his sixth submission.
PREDICTION
Kelleher has not been consistent but there is no doubting the power in his hands and his submission threat. However, this is a tough match-up for him and we expect Nurmagomedov to pocket another dub.
Kelleher has a chance if he can land a clean shot early or even pounce on a guillotine when Nurmagomedov shoots in, but we expect the Russian to throw Kelleher around and control all of the exchanges with his wrestling leaving zero doubt for the judges.