UFC FIght Night 203 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 203? Saturday 12th March, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 203? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 203? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 203 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 203? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
THIAGO SANTOS VS MAGOMED ANKALAEV
Thiago Santos (22-9) is not the fighter he was after leaving his knee ligaments behind in his title fight with Jon Jones (2019). He gave the former champ one of his toughest ever fights taking him to a split decision and severely injured both knees in the process. He returned 28 months later to fight the current champion Glover Teixeira (2020) and got submitted. Aleksandar Rakic (2021) then made it three losses on the bounce after a lacklustre performance. However, he got back in the win column with a measured unanimous decision win over Johnny Walker back in October last year.
Magomed Ankalaev (16-1) is the next big thing in the light heavyweight division. His only loss was a fight he was clearly winning against Paul Craig only to get caught in his triangle in the very last second. Since then, he has strung together seven very impressive wins including unanimous decisions over Nikita Krylov and Volkan Oezdemir (2021).
PREDICTION
Ankalaev keeps getting better and is banking priceless top-level experience now whereas Santos is on the decline. They are two of the best strikers in the division capable of the knockout with a variety of strikes and they match-up very similarly with Santos boasting an inch in reach and Ankalaev boasting an inch in height.
Ankalaev is the huge favourite and that is all down to form. The Russian will still have to expect the best version of Santos and that will be full of aggression firing off his wrecking ball of a left kick to attack the legs and body. A few clean shots will really slow Ankalaev down.
We expect the Dagestani to be patient, get a read on the distance and wait for Santos to offload so he can counter with precise right hooks. Santos’ chin is there to be hit when he rushes is, but you run the risk of getting clipped by a missile.
We are backing Ankalaev to stay out of trouble for the first two rounds and download the data he needs to control the distance and begin to dish out more damage and volume. The hesitant Santos will make it easier for Ankalaev, but if he is aggressive, the Russian will fight fire with fire which will create a knockout either way.
We expect this to go the distance and backing Ankalaev but with those odds, Santos is worth a small punt.
Prediction: Ankalaev via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Santos to win
MARLON MORAES VS SONG YADONG
After pulling off three performances of the night in a row, Marlon Moraes (23-9-1) was storming his way to the vacant bantamweight title. Now, less than three years later he is lucky to not be on a five-fight losing streak. He got humbled by Henry Cejudo (2019) in the title fight after gassing out. He then picked up a split decision over Jose Aldo which should have really gone the other way and then he got paired with three more monsters who all knocked him out. Cory Sandhagen (2020), Rob Font (2020) and Merab Dvalishvili (2021) all put him away before the third round.
It does not get much easier as Song Yadong (18-5-1(1)) is the next man lined up. He also fell on the right side of a controversial decision which was against Marlon Vera (2020). All three judges gave him the nod and then he lost a unanimous decision to Kyler Phillips which was his first loss since 2016. He is now back on winning track with a split decision over Casey Kenney and knock out over Julio Arce ignited by a beautiful head kick.
PREDICTION
Fighting Song Yadong on a four or five-fight win streak is a tough break. Yadong is full of confidence and still only 24 years old with more room for improvement. He has always been an explosive striker and is becoming more refined at Team Alpha Male.
He still has to respect the weapons of Moraes. He is still one of the most dangerous strikers in the division, for the first round at least. He has lightening speed with minimal telegraph on his kicks and hooks.
Yadong will no doubt have a strategy of being patient for the first round but ready to uncork his monstrous hooks. Moraes needs to stick to his strengths and chop Yadong down with kicks, but if he is hesitant, Yadong will ruthlessly counter.
Moraes has to have worked on his pacing. Whether he has smashed cardio this training camp or simply plans to be patient for the first two rounds. Either way, Yadong is a bad match-up who will not only keep up a pace, but he the power to deplete the health bar with a couple strikes.
We can see another decision or knockout loss for Moraes, but as the underdog, he is the value bet as he still has the tools to end the fight in an instant.
Prediction: Yadong via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Moraes to win
SODIQ YUSUFF VS ALEX CACERES
Soqiq Yusuff’s (11-2) UFC run finally came to an end last year when he met Arnold Allen at UFC on ABC 2. He was riding a six-fight win streak after winning his first four UFC fights which included a knockout over Gabriel Benitez (2019) and a unanimous decision over Andre Fili (2020). He then fell on the wrong side of a decision for the first time in his career almost a year ago now.
Alex Caceres (19-11(1)) is in the form of his life as he walks out for his 26th UFC fight. He is flying on a five-fight win streak which has extended his shaky UFC record to 14-10-(1). The current streak includes unanimous decisions over Steven Peterson (2019) and Chase Hooper (2020). A submission over Austin Springer (2020), and a unanimous decision over Kevin Croom (2021) before another rear-naked choke on Seung Woo Choi (2021).
PREDICTION
They can both grapple, but this should be a thrilling stand-up battle with Caceres boasting a slight height and reach advantage. Yusuff has the edge when it comes to speed and power, but Caceres has the experience and a rare patch of consistent form so he will be very confident. That said, this is not a great match-up for him.
Yusuff is not going to try and take him down and instead pressure him on the feet by Caceres down and unleashing power shots. Caceres is technically sound and has a good chin, so we expect him to stay competitive until the bell, but Yusuff is top tier and should prove it at the APEX.
Prediction: Yusuff via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
KHALIL ROUNTREE JR VS KARL ROBERSON
Khalil Rountree Jr (9-5(1)) returns after his first win since 2019 and it was a peak-Rountree performance. He crippled Modestas Bukauskas with strikes although he utilized the controversial side kick to completely disable the knee. Nonetheless, that TKO came with great relief after getting TKO’d by Ion Cutelaba (2019) and then outpointed by Marcin Pachnio (2021) who was on a three-fight skid at the time.
Karl Roberson (9-4) has had a miserable couple of years. His last win was a submission over Roman Kopylov back in 2019. Since then, he got submitted himself by Marvin Vettori (2020) and Brendan Allen (2021) while dealing with a host of cancelled fights due injuries, illnesses and botched weight cuts.
PREDICTION
Roberson has only lost to top-tier grapplers, and he will be safe in the knowledge that Rountree will want to keep the fight on the feet. The problem for Roberson is that Rountree is a genuine light heavyweight and when he is on, he is an unstoppable Muay Thai monster.
Roberson is a kickboxer by trade who can grapple and although he is the same height and only giving up two inches in reach, he will be the smaller man on the night. He has some impressive submission wins in the bank and he would pounce on the opportunity to get the fight to the floor.
However, to do that, he will need to get close to Rountree which can be a death sentence. Roberson will still back his striking, throwing jabs and kicks from range hoping to set up a takedown. Who wins the exchanges will really depend on what Rountree shows up. He is too inconsistent to make it to the top of the division, but on the other hand Roberson has not won a fight since 2019 so this is hard to call.
Surprisingly, Rountree is the underdog, so he is a good shout with a knockout likely, but we are leaning towards Roberson being able to seal a couple takedowns to earn a decision or even a submission depending on how tired Rountree gets.
Prediction: Roberson via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Roberson via KO/TKO
DREW DOBER VS TERRANCE MCKINNEY
Drew Dober’s (23-11) stunning three-fight knockout streak has been broken by two straight losses derailing some serious momentum. The veteran buried Polo Reyes (2019), Nasrat Haqparast (2020) and Alexander Hernandez (2020) but then ran into Islam Makhachev (2021) who predictably went through him like a hot knife through butter taking him down and eventually sealing his fate with a submission in the third round. He then took on Brad Riddell (2021) and went toe-to-toe in a very close battle, but not managing to convince one of the judges in the decision.
Terrance McKinney (12-3) has only had a couple UFC fights, but he is already making noise in the lightweight division. He arrived to the octagon off the back of three blistering first-round knockouts last year over Dedrek Sanders, Toninho Gavinho and Michael Irizarry. He was welcomed by Matt Frevola and continued the run starching him in the first round to mark a perfect debut. He then fought Fares Ziam only a couple weeks ago at UFC Fight Night 202 and displayed another string to his bow submitting him racking up another first-round finish.
PREDICTION
McKinney fills in for Ricky Glenn on short notice for the biggest fight of his career and why not? He has been active while looking unstoppable and he has nothing to lose. What makes this even more interesting is that he has the tools to beat the veteran.
Dober’s only weakness is his takedown defence and McKinney is a high calibre wrestler. His obvious knockout threat will also be able to distract Dober while level changing for the takedown. He also boasts a three-inch reach advantage although while this stays on the feet, Dober should have the edge.
Dober is an exceptional striker with a wealth of experience under the belt. He also has a full training camp behind him and will be in great shape whereas we do not know how much McKinney has celebrated over the last couple weeks.
We are backing Dober to get the job done on the feet and may even seal a late knockout but all the value is on McKinney as the underdog.
Prediction: Dober via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: McKinney to win
ALEX PEREIRA VS BRUNO SILVA
Alex Pereira (4-1) announced himself onto the UFC scene in the only way he knows how and that was a spectacular knockout. The kickboxing sensation who compiled a record of 40-7 lost his first MMA fight in 2015 and collected a couple knockouts a year later for Jungle Fights. He then returned in 2020 to knock out Thomas Powell for LFA which led to the call-up where he ended Andreas Michailidis’ evening with a beautiful flying knee earning a ‘performance of the night’ bonus.
Bruno Silva (22-6) has built his own reputation as a knockout artist. The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt does not has a single submission on the record and has instead relied on his hands earning 19 knockouts out of his 22 wins. He was 5-5 in 2012 and has only lost one fight since which includes three UFC fights last year where he knocked out Wellington Turman, Andrew Sanchez and Jordan Wright.
PREDICTION
These two possess the knockout power of most heavyweights which usually means one thing. If this is a striking contest, someone is likely to get put to sleep. Silva clearly has that one-punch knockout power, but so does Pereira who also has the technique and experience of striking at the highest level.
Silva should really try and get the fight to the floor and show off his jiu-jitsu, but his grappling has been non-existent. If he does try and take the fight to the ground, we would back Pereira’s takedown defence anyway as he trains with the light heavyweight champion, Glover Teixeira.
So, we expect this to finish on the feet where Pereira’s class will shine through. Silva has never been knocked out so there is value in a decision, but we are expecting another knockout.
Prediction: Pereira via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JJ ALDRICH VS GILLIAN ROBERTSON
JJ Aldrich (10-4) is hoping to make it three in a row after earning a split decision over Cortney Casey and a more convincing unanimous one over Vanessa Demopoulos last year. That came in response to a split decision loss to Sabina Mazo in her sole fight in 2020 so, she is now 6-3 in the UFC which is respectable in the female divisions.
Gillian Robertson (10-6) is 7-3 and boasts the most finishes in women’s flyweight history after submitting Priscila Cachoeira back in December. That was her fifth submission in the UFC and came with great relief after dropping two unanimous decisions in a row to Taila Santos (2020) and Miranda Maverick (2021).
PREDICTION
Robertson has only lost to better wrestlers. She took Mayra Bueno Silva down but got submitted back in 2018 and Maycee Barber shrugged off a couple takedown attempts before bullying her on the feet.
Aldrich is an excellent and technically sound striker, but she does not have the power or wrestling to dominate Robertson. If she can defend the takedown, she can point-fight her way to a decision. Her defence is a decent 68% but we expect Robertson to be relentless and cling on to Aldrich.
She will close the distance to nullify Aldrich on the feet and if she can get her on her back, she may just find a submission. Aldrich has good jiu-jitsu herself, but it may only be enough to drag this to the bell.
Prediction: Robertson via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MATTHEW SEMELSBERGER VS AJ FLETCHER
Matthew Semelsberger (9-3) has only lost once in his last seven fights which came in his third UFC appearance last year. It was a unanimous decision to Khaos Williams which came after a unanimous decision win on debut against Carlton Minus (2020) and a 16 second knockout over Jason Witt (2021). He returned on the stacked UFC 266 to welcome Martin Sano Jr to the octagon and only took 15 seconds this time to put his opponent to sleep.
He now welcomes AJ Fletcher (9-0) to the UFC who makes his debut after hellacious flying knee knockout on the Contender Series. He flatlined Leonardo Damiani in August last year which extended his unblemished to nine which includes eight finishes (four knockouts and four submissions).
PREDICTION
Fletcher is a juggernaut. He can wrestle, has good jiu-jitsu and knockout power in all eight limbs. He is a monster with a wheelbarrow of potential. This is a real test for him on debut taking on someone who has starched two of his last three opponents and took Williams to a decision.
That said, Witt’s chin is made out of glass and Sano has not won a fight since 2014 and was only on that card because he is teammates of Nick Diaz so, we cannot read too much into those performances. Fletcher has also padded his record with cans, but he has something special, and we are backing him to win.
He looks great everywhere with the only question being his cardio. If he gets tired, he will simply rely on his wrestling to assume control time. He is a stocky welterweight and will be giving up eight inches in reach which aid Semelsberger in finding the knockout.
We understand why Semelsberger in the favourite, but Fletcher has all of the tools to cause the upset. His explosiveness and diverse striking can cause problems and he can take the fight away from him with his grappling.
Prediction: Fletcher via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Fletcher to win
TAFON NCHUKWI VS AZAMAT MURZAKANOV
Tafon Nchukwi (6-1) returns to the APEX for the fifth time continuing his quest at light heavyweight. His first appearance came on the Contender Series when he poleaxed Al Matavao (2020) with a head kick and he followed that up three months later by outpointing Jamie Pickett on debut down at middleweight. He returned in May last year to take on Jun Yong Park and suffered his first loss after getting a couple points deducted for groin strikes and losing a majority decision. However, he bounced back in September with a solid unanimous decision win over Mike Rodriguez.
Azamat Murzakanov (10-0) finally makes his debut after a failed drugs test halted his debut back in 2017 and having three fights fall through last year. He also announced himself on the Contender Series by stunning Matheus Scheffel with a ferocious combination putting him away in the first round. That knockout extended his unbeaten record which includes seven knockouts and a submission.
PREDICTION
Murzakanov will be giving up a significant six-inch reach and two-inch height advantage in this stand-up battle. That said, Scheffel had four inches in reach and height, but it could not stop Murzakanov from closing the distance and landing his monstrous overhand left.
He will have to manage the distance very carefully against Nchukwi. He utilizes his reach very will with his karate style and he is even more dangerous in the clinch. He is also the underdog, so there is value in him, but we are backing the Russian who has better movement and volume which will set up his piercing left hand that could even seal another knockout.