UFC Fight Night 202 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 202? Saturday 26th February, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 202? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 202? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 202 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 202? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ISLAM MAKHACHEV VS BOBBY GREEN
Islam Makhachev (21-1) is steamrolling his way to the lightweight title just like his close friend Khabib Nurmagomedov did. Unlike Khabib, he has a loss which was when he got knocked out by Adriano Martins (2015) but that was a valuable learning curve, and he has since strung nine impressive wins together and coming off ruthless submissions last year over Drew Dober, Thiago Moises and Dan Hooker. He was then paired up with fellow surging lightweight Beneil Dariush but, he has had to pull out with injury which is gutting.
Bobby Green (29-12-1) is one of few men crazy enough to step up on short notice to fight Makhachev. He has kept very active fighting seven times since 2020. He has gone 5-2 in that time and is arguably in the form of his life at 35 years old. After losing unanimous decisions to Moises (2020) and Rafael Fiziev (2021) he has bounced back with dominant displays – a knockout over Al Iaquinta (2021) and another unanimous decision over Nasrat Haqparast only a couple weeks ago.
PREDICTION
Makhachev goes into this as one of the biggest favourites of all time in the UFC which is surprising especially after seeing what happened between Amanda Nunes and Julianna Pena recently. Green is full of confidence, has a wealth of experience and has one clear advantage over the Russian and that is his striking.
His boxing, speed and reaction time is at a very high level, higher than Makhachev’s. Looking at the odds and considering the Russian has been put to sleep before, a punt on a knockout is a great shout. Makhachev is a very good and diverse striker with good kicks and if he tests his ego on the feet, he will be in trouble.
That said, Makhachev is desperate for that title and will not take many risks. We expect him to waste little time in sealing the takedown and it will be miserable for Green from there. The Dagestani will keep him pinned to the canvas and it will only be a matter of time before he finds another submission.
Prediction: Makhachev via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Green via KO/TKO
MISHA CIRKUNOV VS WELLINGTON TURMAN
Misha Cirkunov (15-7) continues his quest down at middleweight desperately seeking a win. He got welcomed by Krzysztof Jotko (2021) to the division and lost a split decision which saw him slump to 2-6 in his last eight. His wins were vintage submissions over Pat Cummins (2018) and Jimmy Crute (2019) but he is looking at a three-fight skid if he drops another on Saturday.
Wellington Turman (17-5) hopes to pile on more misery, and he has not enjoyed much consistency either. He is 2-3 in the UFC and his future was looking bleak after getting sparked out in the first round by Andrew Sanchez (2020) and Bruno Silva (2021). However, he bounced back in August last year with split decision win over Sam Alvey even with two points getting deducted for eye pokes.
PREDICTION
Not many people have this co-main circled on their calendar, but it is an important fight for both men as another loss could be detrimental to their UFC career. We expect them both to be cagey and hesitant to pull the trigger especially as they both have compromised chins.
It would be great to see them tangle on the mat as talented grapplers and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts however, we expect some standard striking exchanges but the majority of this fight to fall into the clinch with Cirkunov’s weight and technique advantage earning more control time to sway the judges.
Prediction: Cirkunov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JI YEON KIM VS PRISCILLA CACHOEIRA
Ji Yeon Kim’s (9-4-2) job could be on the line here as she is currently on a two-fight skid which has seen her record slump to 3-4. All her losses have come via unanimous decision. Antonina Shevchenko (2018) outclassed her before she finished Nadia Kassem (2019) with a beautiful punch to the liver. However, she has gone on to get outpointed again by Alexa Grasso (2020) and Molly McCann (2021).
Not fairing any better, Priscilla Cachoeira (10-4) is 2-4 in the UFC after her most recent loss. We can write off her baptism of fire against Valentina Shevchenko (2018) who submitted her on debut, but she went on to lose unanimous decisions to Molly McCann (2019) and Luana Carolina (2019) to lose her first three fights. However, she bounced back perfectly knocking out Shana Dobson (2020) and Gina Mazany (2021) but is coming off an inevitable submission loss to Gillian Robertson (2021)
PREDICTION
Thankfully for both ladies and the fans, they prefer to stand and bang it out and hopefully we will see a war on the feet. They are both aggressive with Kim boasting the cardio and important seven-inch reach advantage whereas Cachoeira has the power advantage.
The key for the Brazilian is pressure. McCann sealed the rounds by staying in Kim’s face. The South Korean had 10 inches on McCann but could not make the most out of it. If Cachoeira simply backs her power throwing one or two shots at a time, Kim can counter with her superior technique.
Kim also has the advantage on the mat, but she has not even attempted a takedown in the UFC. She would be wise to try and grapple instead of relying on her chin, but in all likelihood, they are going to slug it out on the feet and although their defence is suspect at best, their durability should drag this to the bell.
We are backing Kim and her boxing technique, but Cachoeira is the smart play as the underdog.
Prediction: Kim via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Cachoeira via Decision
ARMAN TSARUKYAN VS JOEL ALVAREZ
Arman Tsarukyan (17-2) received a baptism of fire for a UFC debut against the headliner of this card Islam Makhachev (2019). He was 13-1 at the time with few giving him a chance however, despite losing a unanimous decision, he immediately became a prospect going toe-to-toe with one of the best grapplers in the division. He has since fuelled that prospect status with four impressive wins including unanimous decisions over Olivier Aubin-Mercer (2019), Davi Ramos (2020) and Matt Frevola (2021) before his most impressive win sparking out Christos Giagos in the first round back in September last year.
Joel Alvarez (19-2) has trailed a very similar path. He made his debut in the same year against another beast in Damir Ismagulov (2019). He lost a unanimous decision but is also now on a four-fight win streak. He TKO’d Danilo Belluardo (2019), submitted Joe Duffy (2020) and Alexander Yakovlev (2020) and is also coming off his most impressive win and knockout which was over Thiago Moises in November last year.
PREDICTION
It seemed fate that these two had to meet now but that does not make it right as one prospect has to fall.
Alvarez is known for his submission prowess, but he looked like an assassin on the feet in his last fight doing what no fighter has done before against Moises, blowing him away with an onslaught of punches and elbows.
That version of Alvarez makes this fight even more interesting especially as he has five inches in reach and eight in height over Tsarukyan. The narrative will still be Tsarukyan taking Alvarez down and fending off the submission attempts as the Spaniard is happy to be taken down relying on his jiu-jitsu and length to find a submission. However, after their last fights, we may see more striking.
The Armenian is a solid technical striker, but if Alvarez bursts out the gate and utilizes that reach, he will cause a lot of problems. That said, Tsarukyan is one of the best all round grapplers in the division and we feel his wrestling, submission defence and cardio will earn him a decision with the value on an Alvarez finish.
Prediction: Tsarukyan via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Alvarez via KO/TKO or Submission
GREGORY RODRIGUES VS ARMEN PETROSYAN
Gregory Rodrigues (11-3) is on a four-fight win streak after winning both of his UFC fights. In fact, his only loss in his last 11 was when he got knocked out by Jordan Williams (2020) on the Contender Series. Since then, he knocked out Al Matavao and Josh Fremd (2021) to claim the vacant LFA middleweight championship. That earnt him the call-up where he outpointed Dusko Todorovic (2021) on debut and then collected his fifth knockout putting Jun Yong Park (2021) to sleep.
Armen Petrosyan (6-1) passed his audition on the Contender Series with flying colours although it came after adversity. The accomplished kickboxer went into the fight responding to a TKO loss to Hassan Yousefi (2021) with a TKO win over Alexander Zemlyakov (2021) and was getting handled by Kaloyan Kolev for the majority of the first round. That was until Petrosyan finally broke the shackles and unleashed his striking putting the Bulgarian away in devastating fashion.
PREDICTION
On paper, this is the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt vs the kickboxer however, Rodrigues has fallen in love with his hands. He has serious knockout power as we saw handing Park his first ever knockout loss.
However, if he tests his ego on the feet, he will have a rude awakening. Rodrigues must know this, so you have to expect him to resort to the takedown and pursue a submission. He will have to be stubborn, and he cannot afford to stand in front of the Armenian for anything length of time. There is not much different in power, but there is a huge gulf in technique.
Based on how well Petrosyan performed against Kolev, we expect him to have similar success. Rodrigues may land a few takedowns, but we feel Petrosyan will find himself on his feet when the Brazilian begins to tire and unleash his kickboxing weapons to craft a knockout.
Prediction: Petrosyan via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Petrosyan via KO/TKO
ZHU RONG VS IGNACIO BAHAMONDES
Zhu Rong (18-4) jumped straight back into the win column after his UFC debut loss. He arrived to the UFC off the back of 10 straight wins for the WLF promotion in China where he was the lightweight champion. He was welcomed to the UFC by Rodrigo Vargas last year and was the favourite but lost a unanimous decision. He returned five months later and responded in perfect fashion by knocking out Brandon Jenkins in the third round.
That third-round knockout had nothing on Ignacio Bahamondes' (12-4) back in August last year. He was also coming off a decision loss on his UFC debut and then got paired with Roosevelt Roberts. It was a brilliant scrap and with five seconds remaining of the the fight, Bahamondes unleashed a beautiful spinning wheel kick to put Roberts out cold.
PREDICTION
Like most of Bahamondes’ fights, this should be fireworks. He will boast a six-inch height and four-inch reach advantage over Rong. Rong has the edge when it comes to experience which is crazy considering he is only 21-years old.
Bahamondes will no doubt want to keep this on the feet and offload a flurry of flashy strikes trying to utilize his reach advantage. Rong can strike, but he can take the fight away from him with his grappling.
If the fight stays on the feet, it will likely be the ‘fight of the night’ and you have to lean towards the Chilean, but we are backing Rong’s grappling to squeak out a decision.
Prediction: Rong via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rong via Decision
TERRANCE MCKINNEY VS FARES ZIAM
Terrance McKinney (11-3) is sitting on some red-hot momentum and put the lightweights on notice with a spectacular seven-second knockout of Matt Frevola. He blasted him with a perfect 1-2 straight down the pipe which stretched a run of three first-round knockouts all last year. He finished Dedrek Sanders for Strike Hard Productions and Luiz Antonio Lobo Gavinho and Michael Irizarry for the Legacy Fighting Alliance to respond to two big losses – a flying knee knockout from Sean Woodson and triangle from Darrick Minner.
After losing his UFC debut on Fight Island at UFC 242, Fares Ziam (12-3) has bounced back superbly with a couple hard-fought decisions. Don Madge gave him the miserable welcome earning a unanimous decision to snap a five-fight win streak, but he returned a year later in October last year to earn a unanimous decision over Jamie Mullarkey which continues to age well. He then followed that up in June this year with a majority decision over Luigi Vendramini to regain some momentum.
PREDICTION
Thankfully this fight has been rescheduled for Saturday after getting postponed back at UFC Fight Night 198 as it is destined to be a banger.
Ziam earnt his reputation as a striker and became a K-1 kickboxing champion at just 18 years old, but we saw his judo and jiu-jitsu on display in the Mullarkey fight allowing him to stifle the Aussie and offload his own offence.
It will be interesting to see if he decides to utilise his grappling as a plan of attack as McKinney possesses devastating knockout power. The Washington native is also a top wrestler, but we expect him to rely on his striking so if Ziam wants to turn this into a kickboxing contest, we are going to be in for a show.
Ziam will boast a slight height and reach advantage as well as the technique advantage, but it will count for nothing if he gets clipped. There is more room for error for McKinney especially as Ziam does not have the same one-hitter-quitter power so he can afford to step into range and swing for the fences.
If Ziam can be patient, stay at range while attacking McKinney’s legs with kicks he can disable his power, sap the energy bar and frustrate him into making a mistake. The Frenchman has the experience and poise to earn a decision, but one mistake and it’s lights out.
Prediction: McKinney via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ziam via Decision
ALEJANDRO PEREZ VS JONATHAN MARTINEZ
Alejandro Perez (22-8-1) went into 2019 unbeaten in his previous seven UFC fights. He met Cody Stamann who handed him a unanimous decision loss and was then repaired with Song Yadong who knocked him out in the second round and we did not see him again until four months ago. However, it was worth the wait as he caught Johnny Eduardo in a scarf hold armlock and earn himself a ‘performance of the night’.
Jonathan Martinez (14-4) has been more active but has struggled for consistency. He started 2020 by losing a split decision to Andre Ewell but responded with a TKO over Frankie Saenz and a unanimous decision over Thomas Almeida. He then kicked off 2021 by getting clapped by Davey Grant but is now coming off a unanimous decision win over Zviad Lazishvili back in October.
PREDICTION
This is excellent matchmaking and is destined to be a fun scrap. When Martinez is on, he can look unstoppable on the feet. He will be boasting a five-inch reach advantage and will be very dangerous from his southpaw stance.
If this stays on the feet, we can see Martinez having a lot of joy firing off his leg kicks especially if Perez adopts that wide stance again. If the Mexican can get the fight to the floor, you have to back him with his jiu-jitsu, but we expect the majority of this to remain on the feet where Martinez will show his class and if he is on, he will seal a knockout.
Prediction: Martinez via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
RAMIZ BRAHIMAJ VS MICHEAL GILLMORE
Ramiz Brahimaj (9-4) steps in for Jonny Parsons who was scheduled to make his debut. Brahimaj is clearly desperate to make up for his lost against Court McGee back in January where he got out wrestled and outclassed for three rounds. He is now 1-2 in the UFC and has lost three of his last five, badly needing a performance like his submission win over Sasha Palatnikov (2021) to remind everyone of his prowess.
Micheal Gillmore (6-4) has accepted another tough fight, but we do not expect anything less from him. He filled in on the last Ultimate Fighter series replacing an injured Miles Hunsinger and did not get a chance to impress getting submitted by Gilbert Urbina. However, he was gifted another opportunity, this time under the bright lights against Andre Petroski, but it was a mismatch getting TKO’d in the third round.
PREDICTION
Brahimaj takes the fight on short notice, but he should be the hefty favourite here. Gillmore has not done anything to warrant a place on the UFC roster besides getting in Dana White’s good books on The Ultimate Fighter.
He has not beaten anyone with more than three wins on their record and Petroski exposed a hole in his takedown defence. Brahimaj’s wrestling is not on Petroski’s level, but we expect him to relentlessly hunt a takedown knowing that he only needs a slight opening to wrap up a submission.