UFC Fight Night 200 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 200? Saturday 5th February, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 200? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 200? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 200 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 200? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JACK HERMANSSON VS SEAN STRICKLAND
Jack Hermansson (22-6) walks into 2022 with a headline slot after only fighting once last year. It was a brilliant performance outclassing Edmen Shahbazyan in response to getting outclassed himself by Marvin Vettori (2020) in a unanimous decision. That made it 2-2 in his last four and he is eager for another vintage performance like when he heel hooked Kelvin Gastelum (2020) in the first round. That came after the biggest setback of his career when Jared Cannonier (2019) knocked him out snapping an impressive four-fight win streak. Now, he needs to build another streak to get close to a title shot.
Sean Strickland (24-3) headlines his second UFC Fight Night in a row which is understandable based on his recent performances. Since his recovery after that motorbike accident in 2018, Strickland has found the form of his life helped by the decision to move up to middleweight. He earnt a unanimous decision over Jack Marshman (2020), TKO’d Brendan Allen (2020) and went on to earn two more excellent unanimous decisions over Krzysztof Jotko (2021) and Uriah Hall (2021).
PREDICTION
Strickland has looked superb in recent fights and Hermansson represents his toughest challenge at middleweight, so this is a great test of his title credentials. His path to victory is on the feet where he is rock solid, and he can win this by walking Hermansson down and keeping up a steady flow of strikes to make him wilt with pressure.
Hermansson has a completely contrasting style on the feet with very unorthodox movement and angles of striking. He will have to be unpredictable to get any success on the feet against Strickland and we expect him to utilize that style to try and seal a takedown and get the fight to the floor.
Strickland had good ground skills but is not on Hermansson’s level, so if Strickland lands on his back, you have to back Hermansson. However, the key stat here is Strickland’s 82% takedown defence which includes fights against the likes of Kamaru Usman and Court McGee.
We feel, Strickland’s grappling defence will win him this fight. He has never been submitted but if Hermansson can rock him and create a scramble, he has every chance of puncing on his ‘Jokertine’, snatching a leg or raining down ground-and-pound.
That said, the majority of this fight is likely to play out on the feet where we expect Strickland to defend the takedown attempts, walk Hermansson down, piercing the guard with his jab and basic combinations to win more rounds.
Prediction: Strickland via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Hermansson via Submission
PUNAHELE SORIANO VS NICK MAXIMOV
Punahele Soriano (8-1) is coming off the first loss of his career. He was sitting pretty at 8-0 after knocking out Oskar Piechota (2019) and Dusko Todorovic (2021) in his first two UFC fights. He then crossed paths with Brendan Allen who inflicted the loss. It was a surprising performance from Allen as he decided to stand and trade for the majority of the fight, but he looked superb and won the battle via unanimous decision. Soriano is now desperate to put that loss behind him and find an excuse to pull the trigger.
It is now Nick Maximov’s (7-0) turn to protect his unblemished record. After a successful amateur career, Maximov stormed his way to 5-0 with two knockouts and three submissions. That led to an audition on the Contender Series which he sailed through by earning a unanimous decision over Oscar Cota (2020). He then earnt his second decision on debut by outpointing Cody Brundage in September last year.
PREDICTION
Soriano will be giving up the size advantage again which should give him more reason to hunt a knockout blow. He was way too hesitant against Allen and he cannot afford to let Maximov dictate the fight and control him with his grappling.
Like Allen, Maximov is also a top grappler with good wrestling, slick submission game and dangerous ground-and-pound. Unlike Allen, we expect him to actually call upon those skills and try and get the fight to the mat.
If Soriano is on his game, Maximov will have to be cautious when closing the distance. He has good takedown defence and devastating power in his hands. If Maximov can tie Soriano up early and take him down, we can see him sap the energy, bag a couple rounds and finish strong in the third.
However, we expect an improved version of Soriano who has the speed and power advantage with his takedown defence enabling him to keep the fight on the feet and win the exchanges. Considering his power, a knockout is always possible, but we feel Maximov can drag this to the bell.
Prediction: Soriano via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Maximov via Decision
SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV VS CARLSTON HARRIS
The ‘Nomad’ prodigy Shavkat Rakhmonov (14-0) returns protecting his perfect record. He made quite a noise on his debut stepping up on short notice to take on UFC veteran Alex Oliveira (2020). He came in as the underdog but put on a clinic submitting the Brazilian in the first round. He was then handed another Brazilian veteran in the shape of Michel Prazeres (2021) and handed out similar treatment, wrapping him up in a rear-naked choke to stretch his unbeaten run to 14.
He takes on Carlston Harris (17-4) who has also put on a show in his first two UFC fights. He was coming in only having lost once in his last eight and took on Christian Aguilera (2021) on his debut. He proceeded to wrap him up in an Anaconda choke in the first round and then he knocked out Impa Kasanganay (2021) also in the first round which sets up this explosive match up.
PREDICTION
Rakhmonov looks like the real deal at welterweight, but this is another tough match-up with Harris coming off two great wins. They are both extremely well-rounded, aggressive and natural finishers, so we should be in for a treat here.
They are match up similarly physically and will both force the action on the feet and in the grappling exchanges. On paper, the Kazakhstani should take this, and we feel his technique on the feet will allow him to rack up the significant strikes and counter Harris’ looping shots.
If they decide to grapple, it will be very competitive especially if they are fresh. It is hard to count out Harris considering his last two fights, but he is not getting any younger and Rakhmonov has all the tools to climb up to the top of the division and a decision or knockout is most likely.
Prediction: Rakhmonov via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
SAM ALVEY VS BRENDAN ALLEN
We are not quite sure how the likeable veteran Sam Alvey (33-16-1(1)) is still in the UFC coming off six losses and a draw. His last win was a split decision over Gian Villante (2018) which is not much of an achievement. Since then, he has got knocked out by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (2018) and Jimmy Crute (2019), lost decisions to Klidesn Abreu (2019) and Ryan Spann (2020) before fighting to a draw with Da Un Jung (2020). Now, he is coming off a submission to Julian Marquez (2021) and another split decision to Wellington Turman (2021). Not pretty.
Brendan Allen (17-5) is coming off a very disappointing loss. He was a hefty favourite against the smaller Chris Curtis who stepped up on short notice and the underdog pulled off a brilliant knockout in the second round. That was the second loss of Allen’s career. The first was inflicted by the headliner of this card, Sean Strickland (2020) who snapped a seven-fight win streak. Allen bounced back with a submission over Karl Roberson (2021) and unanimous decision over Punahele Soriano (2021) before the recent loss and steps up on short notice hoping to rediscover that form.
PREDICTION
Allen has only had a few days to prepare, but he is understandably the heavy favourite especially now the fight is up at 205 lbs. He is a grappler by trade as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and his striking has come on leaps and bounds as we saw when he decided to trade with Punahele earning the decision.
However, his newfound confidence was his undoing in the Curtis fight leaving his chin exposed but that is all valuable experience, and it will force him to respect Alvey’s power. The stand-up battle will be interesting and also, Alvey would have been drilling his takedown defence training for Phil Hawes, so this is not a clear-cut fight.
Allen is also making a quick turnaround after getting put to sleep which is always dangerous. Alvey is has a ton of value considering the odds but that said, Allen is simply a better fighter, particularly in the grappling department and we are backing him to pick up a submission or decision.
Prediction: Allen via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Alvey to win
BRYAN BATTLE VS TRESEAN GORE
Bryan Battle (6-1) returns as The Ultimate Fighter 29 middleweight champion. He cruised to the final after a unanimous decision over Kemran Lachinov and submission over the favourite Andre Petroski. He was originally lined up to fight Tresean Gore, but an injury scuppered the fight allowing Gilbert Urbina the opportunity to steal the prize. Battle ruined any hope with a solid performance sealing the deal with a submission in the second-round.
Tresean Gore (3-0) suffered a meniscus injury before the final, which was heart breaking, but thankfully he has been given his chance at UFC Fight Night 200. He also started the tournament with a unanimous decision which was over Ryder Newman and then pulled off the most impressive finish knocking out Urbina in the semi-finals.
PREDICTION
This is the real Ultimate Fighter 29 final. Gore has been out of action for a while recovering from that knee injury and only has three professional fights under the belt. Battle has more experience and is full of confidence after that submission win, yet he is still the underdog.
That said, we understand why as Gore looked the most competent on the series. He has a clear power and speed advantage although Battle has a crisper boxing technique and will look to counter.
Battle will not want to spend too much time trading and will instead relish a scrap on the ground. Gore is a strong wrestler, but if he begins to tire towards the end of the fight, his back will be there for the taking.
We feel Gore has the tools to get the job done and even find the knockout, but Battle is the smart pick as the underdog.
Prediction: Gore via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Battle to win
JULIAN EROSA VS STEVEN PETERSON
Julian Erosa (26-9) is enjoying his third stint in the UFC. He stepped up on short notice to fight Sean Woodson (2020) and pulled off a huge upset in submitting the prospect and handing him his sole loss. He then followed that up with a stunning flying knee knockout over Nate Landehr (2021). His momentum was abruptly halted by Seung Woo Choi (2021) who knocked him out in the first round, but he pulled off another quality submission in his last outing wrapping Charles Jourdain (2021) up in a D’arce choke.
Steven Peterson (19-9) has only fought once since 2019 when Alex Caceres made it two unanimous decisions on the bounce following Luis Pena’s win. He was 1-3 in the UFC at that point facing the cut with another loss to Martin Bravo in his next fight. However, he proceeded to pull off a ‘performance of the night’ with the best knockout of his career – a spinning back fist. He only returned in June last year and added another win outclassing Chase Hooper to pick up a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This is the perfect way to kick off the main card and is destined to be fireworks. These guys not only always hunt the finish, but they do so in exciting fashion. They are both super aggressive on the feet and on the floor with a variety of finishes under the belt.
Expect anything and everything here in a back-and-forth battle. We are expecting Erosa to come out on top as he has been more active, is more seasoned and thrives in these stylistic matchups. Peterson will no doubt be a threat, but unless he pulls off a knockout, we expect Erosa to rack up more damage and steal the show. Good luck picking the method of victory though.
Prediction: Erosa via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MILES JOHNS VS JOHN CASTANEDA
Miles Johns (12-1) has firmly bounced back after the first loss of his career. He was 10 fights unbeaten after earning a split decision over Cole Smith (2019) on his UFC debut, but then ran into Mario Bautista (2020) and his airborne patella. It was a beautiful flying knee that derailed Johns, but he got back on track in the best way possible by smoking Kevin Natividad (2020) and Anderson dos Santos (2021).
John Castaneda (18-5) is also coming off an impressive knockout finishing the war-beaten veteran Eddie Wineland year ago. That came in response to losing his UFC debut in unanimous decision loss to Nathaniel Wood (2020). He is now 2-3 in his last five with a couple losses on the Combate Americas scene so he still has a lot to prove to keep a spot on the UFC roster.
PREDICTION
Johns has always been known for his power but finally displayed his knockout abilities in his last two fights and Castaneda needs to execute a game plan in avoiding those hands. Johns will stand ready and corked throwing a lot of feints to set up his huge overhand right.
Castaneda also displayed his knockout power in his last outing. His speed and accuracy will be crucial against Johns which will create some explosive exchanges. This is going to be a fun scrap and we are backing Johns to find another knockout or come out on top in a three-round battle inflicting more damage.
Prediction: Johns via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
HAKEEM DAWODU VS MIKE TRIZANO
Hakeem Dawodu (12-2-1) desperately needs some momentum. After getting submitted by Danny Henry (2018) on his UFC debut, he went on an impressive five-fight win streak including two hard-fought split decision wins over Julio Arce (2019) and Zubaira Tukhugov (2020) to emerge as a featherweight prospect. However, he ran into Movsar Evloev in June last year losing a unanimous decision so has now only fought twice since 2019 with one win.
Mike Trizano (9-1) has been even more inactive. After winning the Ultimate Fighter 27 as a lightweight with a split decision over Joe Giannetti in 2018, he has only fought three times. He fought four months later against Luis Pena earning another split decision and then dropped down to featherweight in May 2019 to get submitted by Grant Dawson. He responded with a dubious unanimous decision win over Ludovit Klein, but that was two years later in May last year.
PREDICTION
This is great matchmaking between two fighters who both need to get an active run going. Trizano is three inches taller, but Dawodu will boast a two-inch reach advantage which will be important as we expect 15 minutes of striking here.
This will be super competitive with Trizano looking to press the action throwing out his jab to open Dawodu up to set up his right hand and combinations. Dawodu will look to counter with his speed, but he will do the most damage with his kicks and he needs to land early and often to slow Trizano down.
Trizano is the underdog, but we expect him to absorb everything Dawodu throws and sway the judges with his constant output and ultimately winning the fight with his boxing. This is bound to be a close one and do not be surprised if we see another split decision.
Prediction: Trizano via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Trizano via Decision
MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT VS CHIDI NJOKUANI
Marc-Andre Barriault (13-4(1)) has finally displayed the form that made him a double champion for TKO. He arrived to the UFC with high hopes sitting on a record of 11-1 however, the start of his campaign could not have gone much worse losing every fight in 2019. He lost three decisions to Andrew Sanchez, Krzysztof Jotko and Jun Yong Park. He showed a lot of character bouncing back with a TKO win over Oskar Piechota (2020) but it was overturned to a ‘no contest’ after popping for ostarine. So, four fights into his UFC career, he was still without a win but rallied with a brilliant TKO over Abu Azaitar (2021) and followed that up with a unanimous decision over Dalcha Lungiambula (2021).
He welcomes Chidi Njokuani (20-7) to the big time who is fresh off his impressive showing on the Contender Series back in September. He put Mario Filipe de Sousa away with nasty elbows to make it two TKO’s in a row after finishing Cristhian Torres with knees and punches. Those wins came with huge relief as he was coming off two tough losses for Bellator – a submission to John Salter (2018) and a unanimous decision to Rafael Carvalho (2019).
PREDICTION
Njokuani is a talented and experienced fighter, but this is a tough debut especially as Barriault has found his mojo now.
Njokuani is a brilliant striker with knockout power. He will have the advantage when it comes to speed, range and movement with a dangerous variety of strikes. However, his fight with Salter was a worry after getting taken down and submitted.
Barriault is a grinding beast, and he will try and subdue the weapons on Njokuani by tying him up in his clinch and pinning him up against the fence. If the Canadian drags him down to the canvas, he has the weight to control him on the ground and rain down the punches.
Njokuani is certainly UFC calibre, and we expect him to feature on some highlight reels soon, but we feel Barriault’s durability is the key. He has never been knocked out and if he can close the distance, he can shut Njokuani down for three rounds.
Prediction: Barriault via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
MALCOLM GORDON VS DENYS BONDAR
After pulling out of UFC Fight Night 198, Malcolm Gordon (13-5) is ready to continue where he left off in beating Francisco Figueiredo via unanimous decision in July last year. That win came with huge relief as he was coming off two losses in his first two UFC fights. He made his debut off the back of four wins (three submissions and a knockout) but got submitted himself on debut by Amir Albazi (2020) and then starched by Su Mudaerji (2020). His job was on the line, but he rediscovered some of the form that made him the TKO Flyweight champion.
Denys Bondar (14-2) finally makes his entrance to the big time. He arrives as the World Warriors Fighting Championships flyweight champion and is a very exciting prospect from the Ukraine. He has finished all of his wins (five knockouts and nine submissions) with his last loss coming five years ago to Aleksandr Lunga (2017) and has since stacked eight very impressive wins together for a variety of promotions not including some national amateur fights.
PREDICTION
Gordon has yet another tough fight being assigned the task of welcoming Bondar to the UFC. We expect big things from the Ukrainian and although he has not fought anyone of note, he looks to have all the tools to be successful in the flyweight division. He is a natural finisher and an absolute beast on the mat.
This will be the toughest fight of his career, but we believe he will extend the streak. This is going to be a very fast-paced fight with a mixture of striking and grappling. Bondar has the edge in the grappling department, so Gordon needs to try and maintain the range and fight patiently.
This is not natural for him however, as he likes to close the distance and we feel Bondar will make it uncomfortable for him everywhere. As long as there are no debut jitters, we expect Bondar to show off all his skills and test the damaged chin of Gordon. Considering the odds, Gordon is worth the punt.