UFC 270 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 270? Sunday 23rd December, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 270? Honda Center, Anaheim, California (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 270? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 270
What channel is UFC 270 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC 270? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
FRANCIS NGANNOU VS CIRYL GANE
The most dangerous man in MMA, Francis Ngannou (16-3) finally makes the first defence of his heavyweight title. It is a shame that he butts heads with the UFC with negotiations as he has the attributes to attract fans from all sports. His dominant loss to Stipe Miocic in his first title fight was a humbling experience and that scarring carried over to his lacklustre fight with Derrick Lewis. However, they have proved to be valuable lessons as he got back to what got him to the dance by just letting his hands fly. He has gone on to bury Curtis Blaydes (2018), Cain Velasquez (2019), Junior dos Santos (2019), Jairzinho Rozenstruik (2020) and won the strap in his most impressive performance and patient performance against Miocic where he stifled the takedown and pounced on an opportunity that came in the second round.
Cyril Gane (10-0) has emerged as his first contender as the interim champion although he only has that title because the UFC were being petty. That said, Gane is the clear number one contender. He has looked immaculate in the UFC displaying all the skills in the book. He breezed past Raphael Pessoa (2019), Don’Tale Mayes (2019) and Tanner Boser (2019). He stepped up a level knocking out the former champion dos Santos (2020) and then outpointed Rozenstruik (2021) and Alexander Volkov (2021) before capping off a perfect year by putting a beating on Lewis and finishing him in the third round.
PREDICTION
Gane is a better fighter in ever area. He arguably has the best movement we have ever seen from a heavyweight complimented by his clinch work and grappling game. He is extremely fluid and technical in everything he does, and we are picking him to dethrone the most dangerous man in MMA.
You can never back against Ngannou with any certainty simply because he possesses nuclear power in his hands. We all know by now that he does not even have to land clean to put someone to sleep so if Gane does pull off the win, he needs to be laser focused at every range.
Gane has the footwork to run rings around Ngannou, popping in and out of range pumping him with his jab and straight left and firing off leg kicks and head kicks while switching stances. Gane also has the power to subdue Ngannou in his clinch.
However, one punch would prevent all of that so the question is whether Gane can avoid it. The closest fighter to Ngannou is Lewis but Gane put on a clinic against him. He read every bomb that came his way and broke him down with his kicks, jab and clinch until he wilted.
Ngannou has not had enough cage time, but he put on a perfect performance against Miocic. Gane will expect an even better version which will force him to be patient. Ngannou shrugged off the takedown attempt from Miocic but that is because he was fresh.
Gane has the skill and speed to break him down on the feet for a round or two and the cardio to drain him further in clinch later in the fight. We expect him to make Ngannou wilt like he did to Lewis and finish him in the championship rounds. Depending on how depleted Ngannou gets, he may even submit him.
If Ngannou remians the underdog, a knockout bet is a no brainer, but our MMA brain tells us Gane should take this.
Prediction: Gane via KO/TKO
CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Ngannou via KO/TKO
BRANDON MORENO VS DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO 3
The trilogy fight is upon us as Brandon Moreno (16-3) defends his fresh new belt for the first time. He went into his first fight with Figueiredo off the back off three great wins over Kai Kara-France (2019), Jussier Formiga (2020) and Brandon Royval (2020). It was an epic battle and ‘fight of the night’ with nothing between as the fight ended in a majority draw. The rematch was inevitable six months later in June last year and Moreno made the vital improvements to take home the belt. It was another fierce scrap with Moreno’s grappling and pressure forcing Figueiredo to wilt and he sealed the deal with a rear-naked choke in the third round.
Deiveson Figueiredo (20-2-1) is desperate to get his gold back despite actually looking happy he lost the last fight. He wants revenge on Moreno for inflicting those two blemishes on the extremely impressive record. He was on a five-fight streak including a TKO and submission over Joseph Benavidez (2020) to claim the belt and a submission over Alex Perez for his first defence. If he can earn the belt back, Figueiredo vs Moreno 4 will be on the horizon, but if he losses, a move up to the bantamweight division could be on the cards
PREDICTION
In their first fight Figueiredo landed 137 significant strikes to Moreno’s 132. He was also more accurate with 57% accuracy to Moreno’s 53% and two of the judges had him edging it but the point deduction for groin strikes in the third round dragged the result back to a draw.
The second fight was more conclusive with Moreno out landing Figueiredo by 47 significant strikes to 24 and completing both his takedown attempts. Figueiredo started too slow, and Moreno capitalised by rocking him early and then called upon his grappling to find a submission in the third round. It was an incredible performance after the first war and now it is down to Figueiredo to make the adjustments if he wants his belt back.
Figueiredo has to start quicker so he is not chasing the fight. We need to see that trademarked aggressiveness and power to direct the course of the fight. We know Moreno is going to bring that relentless pressure and volume. He also displayed the advantage on the mat, so he is the clear favourite here.
Moreno has never been finished and not many flyweights can go eight rounds with Figueiredo without getting knocked out and submitted and that is why we are also backing the Mexican. We expect an improved version of Figueiredo, but we also expect Moreno’s durability to be able to endure five rounds again.
So, we are leaning towards a Moreno decision, but this is destined to be another ferociously competitive scrap and there are not many outcomes to this fight that would surprise us.
Prediction: Moreno via Decision
CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Figueiredo via Decision
MICHEL PEREIRA VS ANDRE FIALHO
Michel Pereira (26-11) was scheduled to fight Muslim Salikhov last week at UFC on ESPN 32 but the Russian pulled out scuppering that mouth-watering bout. Fortunately, Pereira’s training camp has not gone to waste as a newcomer has stepped up in time for the pay-per-view card. We look forward to seeing him as he has got his act together after those embarrassing losses to Tristan Connelly (2019) and Diego Sanchez (2020). He submitted Zelim Imadaev (2020) and then strung together two more mature performances together earning unanimous decisions over Khaos Williams (2020) and Niko Price (2021).
Andre Fialho (14-3) is the newcomer stepping up for the biggest fight of his life. He had a rough patch a couple years ago getting knocked out by Chris Curtis (2019) and then outpointed by Glaico Franca (2019 – later overturned to a no content) and Antonio dos Santos Jr. However, 2021 was a lot kinder, picking up a free knockout over James Vick for XMMA and then Sang Hoon Yoo, Lincoln Henrique and Stefan Sekulic all for UAE Warriors.
PREDICTION
Fialho is experienced and a very dangerous striker, but we feel Pereira needs to throw the fight away by showboating to lose this. Pereira is the bigger man, will have the confidence to stand and trade with Fialho and has the grappling to completely subdue his boxing.
If he fights smart, the win is there for him, but if he does not respect Fialho and he gasses himself out with more backflips, an upset is on the cards. Fialho is a good fighter and fought good competition so is worth a punt.
Prediction: Pereira via Decision
CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Fialho to win
CODY STAMANN VS SAID NURMAGOMEDOV
Cody Stamann (19-4-1) returns after only getting one fight in last year. He took on Merab Dvalishvili off the back of a loss and inevitably got out grappled on his way to a unanimous decision loss. His loss a year prior was to Jimmie Rivera in another unanimous decision and that was only a couple months after his brother passed away. A miserable year for Stamann, but he showed immense heart just to make it to the octagon. He is without a win since June 2020 now which was a unanimous decision over Brian Kelleher and he is desperate to regain that form.
Said Nurmagomedov (14-2) has been more inactive fighting only once since 2019. He fought twice that year, firstly knocking out Ricardo Ramos in his second UFC fight but Raoni Barcelos then snapped his seven-fight win streak with a unanimous decision. However, he is back on track after knocking out Mark Striegl in October last year.
PREDICTION
These guys have very contrasting attributes. Stamann is a short and stocky wrestler whereas Nurmagomedov is the rangier striker who will be boasting two inches in height and six inches in reach which will be very evident while they are on the feet.
Nurmagomedov is a brilliant striker who can throw a range of attacks from range, and he will no doubt try and pick Stamann apart from range. He will throw kicks, combinations and spinning attacks.
Stamann will not pose much threat on the feet and will try and get Nurmagomedov on his back as soon as possible. If he can take the Russian down, he is capable of keeping him there, but he will risk absorbing a lot of damage in the process.
Stamann is the underdog, but as he is incredibly durable and has never been knocked out which makes him the smart pick for a bet winning at least a couple rounds with his wrestling. However, we are backing Nurmagomedov’s own grappling and takedown defence to keep the fight on the feet long enough to display his clear advantage on the feet.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via Decision
CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Stamann via Decision
RAONI BARCELOS VS VICTOR HENRY
Raoni Barcelos (16-2) finally got derailed in his last fight back in June. He finished Kurt Holobaugh (2018), Chris Gutierrez (2018) and Carlos Huachin (2019) in his first three UFC fights and then earnt unanimous decisions over Said Nurmagomedov (2019) and Khalid Taha (2020) to extend his streak to nine. However, he then crossed paths with Timur Valiev back in June who was busy compiling his own impressive streak and snuck past Barcelos in a majority decision.
Trevin Jones was lined up for Barcelos at UFC Fight Night 199, but he pulled out giving Victor Henry (21-5) the opportunity to make his UFC debut. Covid protocols then scuppered that bout but fortunately for us and them, they are now on the stacked pay-per-view card. Henry has built an impressive record himself fighting for various promotions and even has wins over Anderson dos Santos and Kyler Phillips (2018). They were part of an eight-fight win streak capped off by two finishes for Rizin, but he then lost a unanimous decision to Denis Lavrentyev for MFP last year. He bounced back with a submission win over Albert Morales a couple months ago for Lights Out Xtreme and now steps up for the biggest fight of his career.
PREDICTION
Preparing for Barcelos on short notice is no easy task so Henry has to approach this feeling he has nothing to lose and just let his hands go.
The former RFA champion is a decorated jiu-jitsu competitor and Henry is not going to trouble him on the floor despite his own impressive ground skills. We expect the majority of this fight to remain on the feet where we give Barcelos the edge.
Barcelos has the speed and power to put Henry away, but he has to respect his striking. Henry has speed and mixes his attacks up well, so as long as Barcelos fights smart, he should earn the win with a variety of outcomes possible for him.
Henry is UFC calibre and as a significant underdog, he is worth a shout, but this is Barcelos’ to lose.
Prediction: Barcelos via Decision
CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Henry to win
MICHAEL MORALES VS TREVIN GILES
Michael Morales (12-0) finally makes his debut and he is coming in hot with nine of his 12 wins coming via knockout. After picking up his first submission in 2019, he went of to knock out four victims in a row – Daniel Luigy Bastidas, Ricrdo Centeno (EMMA) and Miguel Arizmendi (UWC Mexico) which earnt himself an audition on the Contender Series in September last year. It was a rare decision, but he passed nonetheless outpointing Nikolay Veretennikov.
Trevin Giles (14-3) welcomes him to the octagon and will be a strong litmus test to see if he will survive. Giles is 5-3 in the UFC now and although he is coming off a knockout loss which was to Dricus du Plessis back in July, he has looked good in recent fights. That loss snapped a streak which included a split decision over James Krause, a knockout over Bevon Lewis and a unanimous decision over Roman Dolidze handing him his first loss.
PREDICTION
Morales’ record looks great, but he has not proved himself at a high level. That said, he is a young beast and Veretennikov was a quality win. He makes his debut with an incredible amount of hunger flying the flag for Ecuador and we are backing him to make a dream debut.
However, Giles is a tough fight and he has all the tools to ruin the debut. He has the power on the feet to hurt Morales and the experience to utilize his weight and grappling to change the course of the fight.
Giles also makes his debut at welterweight, and he is either going to look like a world beater or be too depleted to survive Morales’ power. We expect Morales to bring the best version of himself here and leverage his five-inch reach advantage to land his jab, leg kicks and eventually find a knockout.
Prediction: Morales via KO/TKO
CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Giles via Decision
TONY GRAVELY VS SAIMON OLIVEIRA
Tony Gravely (21-7) is coming off a devastating loss back in September. He was picking up some steam after getting submitted on his debut by Brett Johns (2020). He earnt a split decision over Geraldo de Freitas (2020) and sealed a ‘performance of the night’ with a knockout over Anthony Birchak (2021). However, Nate Maness inflicted the first knockout loss of his career. That made it seven losses now, but they have all come against good competition even in his earlier career including the likes of Pat Sabatini (2015), Merab Dvalishvili (2016) and Manny Bermudez (2017).
Saimon Oliveira (18-3) makes his UFC debut having only lost once in his last 11 fights. That was a unanimous decision to Ary Farias (2018) for ACB however, he has bounced back in style. He submitted Edezio da Hora Santana (2018), Wesley Bull (2018) for Sicario MMA, Jeferson Bastos (2019) for MTK and then Wataru Mimura (2019) for Pancrase. Those wins got him a slot on the Contender Series and he squeaked through into the UFC with a split decision over Jose Alday.
PREDICTION
Oliveira is a quality fighter, but this is a tough debut. He is a brilliant striker with a powerful jab which sets up a nasty check left hook.
Gravely is also experienced and has some important UFC fights under the belt. He can strike, but he is going to rely on his wrestling here and try and chain takedowns together to drain the energy of Oliveira and subdue his weapons.
The Brazilian has the ability to knock Gravely out, and it will be a comfortable debut if the fight stays on the feet. However, we do not expect gravely to let that happen and we feel his wrestling will shut Oliveira down.
Oliveira is the underdog, and we can certainly see him rocking Gravely early and either knocking him out or submitting him, so he makes all the sense if you are betting. However, if Gravely takes him down early, the writing will be on the wall.
Prediction: Gravely via Decision
CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Oliveira via KO/TKO or Submission
SILVANA GOMEZ JUAREZ VS VANESSA DEMOPOULOS
Silvana Gomez Juarez (10-3) heads back to the APEX in search of her first UFC win. She had a very tough fight on her debut stepping in on short notice to fight Lupita Godinez after Sam Hughes pulled out. She got mauled by the Mexican and eventually caught in an armbar. She has dusted herself off and now want to show the UFC fans her own finishing ability as we saw when she TKO’d Diana Reyes (2020) and Gilsely Perea (2021) which led to her opportunity in the big time.
Vanessa Demopoulos (6-4) also filled in as a replacement on her debut last year. Tracey Cortez pulled out of her fight with JJ Aldrich who was another tough debut and she ended up putting all her size and experience to use bagging a unanimous decision. She has an unflattering record, but she has fought tough opponents including losses to Godinez (2020) who she took to a majority decision and Cory McKenna (2020) who is on an impressive four-fight win streak.
PREDICTION
This fight was supposed to be last week at UFC on ESPN 32 but luckily for them, they are now of the blockbuster pay-per-view card.
We are not sure what Juarez is capable of in the UFC especially at the age of 37 but she is fun to watch. She has also fought top competition and can hold her own against most women on the feet.
Demopoulos is a small strawweight and will be giving up seven inches in reach. She is a good striker but if she struggles to negate the reach and starts to get tagged, she will resort to the takedown.
We still expect Demopoulos to back her striking and she has the movement to get in range and land on Juarez. However, the longer this stays on the feet the more you have to back Juarez who will hurt Demopoulos from range and chop her down with calf kicks. If they clinch up, Juarez may also find little resistance in taking Demopoulos down.
We understand why Demopoulos is the favourite but we are backing Juarez to earn a decision at least.
Prediction: Juarez via Decision
CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!