UFC 271 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 271? Sunday 13rd February, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 271? Toyota Center, Houston, Texas (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 271? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 271
What channel is UFC 271 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 271? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ISRAEL ADESANYA VS ROBERT WHITTAKER
Israel Adesanya (21-1) struts out to Texas for the fourth defence of his middleweight crown, and it just so happens to be against somebody he has already knocked out. It was the best performance he had pulled off at the time, putting on a clinic against Robert Whittaker (20219) with only the bell preventing him from unifying the championship in the first round. Adesanya went on to earn a mature decision over Yoel Romero (2020) and then a masterclass against Paulo Costa (2020), finishing him in the second round as well. He then had the testicular fortitude to move up to light heavyweight to take on the champ Jan Blachowicz (2021), but the weight, power and grappling discrepancy was clear resulting in the sole loss of his career. However, he bounced back against Marvin Vettori (2021) in another unanimous decision to maintain his unbeaten status at 185 lbs.
That knockout is Robert Whittaker’s (23-5) only loss in 13 fights and considering what he was putting his body through, it was only a matter of time. He rose to the top of the middleweight division when it was overflowing with killers, and he solidified himself as the king with decisions over Romero (2017, 2018). He returned nine months after the Adesanya (2019) loss and looked refreshed meeting three more 185 monsters in Darren Till (2020), Jared Cannonier (2020) and Kelvin Gastelum (2021) outclassing them in unanimous decisions to step back into the number one contender spot.
PREDICTION
In 2019, that was one of the best versions of Adesanya and the worst of Whittaker. Whittaker was careless and played right into the hands of one of the best counter strikers in the sport. Adesanya was ruthless and he has only got better and even though he has a loss on the record now, getting dominated on the ground by Blachowicz will only help him in preparation for Whittaker’s redemption.
Besides Whittaker’s uncharacteristic recklessness, the key difference was Adesanya’s seven-inch reach advantage. He got a read and then used every inch to avoid Whittaker’s attacks and counter like a sniper. Whittaker has to change his strategy and mix in his grappling where he has a clear advantage.
How much of Whittaker’s game plan will consist of wrestling, we are not sure. However, one thing we can be certain of is that Bobby Knuckles will make this a much tougher fight. He will be calmer, patient and not rush into any flurries which could create an uneventful fight like Adesanya vs Romero.
Adesanya has good takedown defence, but the Aussie can control him in top position. If he cannot find that takedown, Adesanya will happily cruise five rounds waiting for his opportunity to snipe. He will throw regular kicks gradually disabling him which will force Whittaker to open up later in the fight and be more aggressive.
We feel Adesanya’s takedown defence will discourage Whittaker from attempting the takedown in every round. So, do not expect an action-packed war with Adesanya is likely to sway the judges by simply racking up the leg kicks and taking less damage with the help of his reach and movement.
Prediction: Adesanya via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER OF 50/1 ON ADESANYA TO BEAT WHITTAKER!
JARED CANNONIER VS DEREK BRUNSON
After suffering the first loss of his middleweight career, Jared Cannonier (14-5) is back in the win column with a classy unanimous decision win over Kelvin Gastelum. Almost a year prior in October 2020, he ran into Robert Whittaker after winning all three of his middleweight bouts. He knocked out David Branch (2018), TKO’d Anderson Silva and finished Jack Hermanson (2019). He was steamrolling his way to a title shot, Whittaker stopped him in his tracks with a unanimous decision and now has the chance to win his belt back in the main event.
No one has come close to stopping Derek Brunson (23-7) since he met Israel Adesanya in 2018. The current champion schooled him and dished out Brunson’s second embarrassing knockout in a row which forced him back to the drawing board. He went back to his wrestling strengths and has gone on to earn unanimous decisions over Elias Theodorou and Ian Heinisch (2019), TKO Edmen Shahbazyan (2020), another unanimous decision over Kevin Holland (2021) and submit Darren Till (2021).
PREDICTION
The abandonment of Brunson’s reckless striking has not won him many new fans, but he is now in the form of his life and on his way to a title shot and his new wrestling heavy approach is clearly the key to earning his sixth win in a row.
Cannonier is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division and Brunson will no doubt try and get him on his back and keep him there. Brunson has taken down all five of his opponents from the win streak with a success rate of 42% which is very good considering their takedown defence however, more importantly he managed to keep them on the ground and even finished Shahbazyan and Till there.
Cannonier has a 85% takedown defence at middleweight fighting four brilliant wrestlers. If he can defend 85% of Brunson’s takedowns, you have to back him to find the knockout. Brunson has poor striking defence and Cannonier has one-punch knockout power.
This will be a Cannonier knockout or a grinding decision for Brunson. As Brunson is the underdog, he is the smart pick, but we feel Cannonier’s brute strength will allow him to keep the fight standing long enough to land a bomb on Brunson’s damaged chin.
Prediction: Cannonier via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Brunson via Decision
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DERRICK LEWIS VS TAI TUIVASA
Derrick Lewis (26-8(1)) makes a quick turnaround after making quick work of Chris Daukaus less than two months ago. He was the underdog which was surprising to us and he handed out a painful lesson and the first loss of the policeman’s career, breaking the UFC record for the most knockouts (13). That win came in response to getting absolutely schooled by Cyril Gane who eventually put ‘The Black Beast’ out of his misery in the third round and snapping his impressive four-fight win streak.
Tai Tuivasa (13-3) is riding his own four-fight win streak and is in red hot form coming off two ‘performance of the night’ bonuses. He has also shown a lot of character as he was coming off three straight losses – Junior dos Santos (TKO), Blagoy Ivanov (unanimous decision) and Sergey Spivak (submission). After getting submitted on home soil, he took a year out, switched camps and has pulled off four vintage knockouts over Stefan Struve, Harry Hunsucker, Greg Hardy and Augusto Sakai.
PREDICTION
Tuivasa has looked exceptional on the streak, but Lewis represents a significant step-up in competition. That said, they are two of the most potent knockout artists in the game and either man may fall.
The gaping hole in Tuivasa’s game is his grappling, but fortunately for him, Lewis will not poke that hole. Instead, he will patiently wait for his opportunity to explode with ferocious power. Cut from the same cloth but contrastingly, Tuivasa is more cerebral and likes to press the action utilizing his speed and athleticism to find the chin.
Lewis is the bigger man with a four-fight reach advantage and more importantly he has the advantage when it comes to experience. Tuivasa has the speed to knock Lewis out, but Lewis has the nous to remain patient for three rounds and unleash his overhands, uppercuts and even head kicks.
The key for Tuivasa is to keep moving and target Lewis’ legs with kicks. He will only need to land a few to completely slow him down and make his power shots more predictable and easier to avoid.
Both sluggers are obviously capable of a knockout, but the longer the fight goes on, the more you have to back Tuivasa. He is more likely to stick to a strategy and he will be able to offload the volume to win each round. However, we also understand why Lewis is the favourite as Tuivasa gets hit and Lewis only needs to land once.
Prediction: Tuivasa via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Tuivasa via KO/TKO or Decision
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KYLER PHILLIPS VS MARCELO ROJO
Last year, Kyler Phillips (9-2) experienced his most impressive win and most disappointing loss. He kicked off his UFC career by earning a unanimous decision over Gabriel Silva (2020) and knocking out Cameron Else (2020) to shoot to 9-1. He then met Song Yadong and beat him via unanimous decision handing him his first loss in 10 fights and stealing his bantamweight prospect status. However, he was then assigned Raulain Paiva as the favourite and had almost put the Brazilian away in the first round but ended up losing a majority decision.
Marcelo Rojo (16-7) made a name for himself on the Combate Americas scene as he was never involved in a boring fight. He got submitted a couple times (Levy Marroquin, 2017 and John Castaneda, 2019) but he knocked out five victims and submitted one himself. He stepped in as a replacement to fight Charles Jourdain at UFC Fight Night 187 in March last year, but the debut did not go his way getting knocked out in the third round.
PREDICTION
Phillips’ loss should provide a valuable lesson. He was getting the better of Paiva everywhere and was offloading flashy strikes at will, but he did not pace himself and got sloppy. He has all the skills and now should be more calculated which make him the heavy favourite for us.
Rojo is extremely dangerous and cut from a similar cloth so this could easily be the ‘fight of the night’. We expect fireworks on the feet and exciting scrambles on the mat. If Phillips does not respect the power of Rojo or empties the tank too early, he will suffer another humbling defeat.
However, Phillips is better everywhere and we expect him to put on one of his most clinical performances. Expect flair, aggression and spinning attacks, but a slightly more patient and ruthless Phillips to pick up his sixth knockout.
Prediction: Phillips via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Rojo to win
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BOBBY GREEN VS NASRAT HAQPARAST
Bobby Green (28-12-1) is still going strong at 35 years old and knocking out top lightweights. His resurgence in 2020 that included unanimous decisions over Clay Guida, Lando Vannata and Alan Patrick was halted with back-to-back losses Thiago Moises (2020) and Rafael Fiziev (2021) gave him a taste of his own medicine inflicting unanimous decision losses. However, he turned back to the clock in his last fight knocking out Al Iaquinta earning himself a ‘performance of the night’ bonus.
Nasrat Haqparast (13-4) is coming off his third UFC loss to stifle his momentum once again. After building his longest streak in the UFC with three wins, he ran into Drew Dober (2020) and got knocked out in the first round. He then earnt unanimous decisions over Alexander Munoz (2020) and Rafa Garcia (2021) but was then handed his most formidable opponent to date, Dan Hooker who called upon all of his striking to nullify the weapons of Haqparast grinding out a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Those weapons are Haqparast’s hands. He possesses severe power which makes this a fascinating match-up as Bobby Green is as seasoned as it gets on the feet.
They match up very similarly physically, but Green has the crucial edge in experience and boxing technique. We expect Green to display all of this and win the striking exchanges. Haqparast possesses more power and is certainly more of a knockout threat, but Green has not been knocked out since he fought Dustin Poirier in 2016.
His defence is exceptional, and we feel he will be able to land his jab and leg kicks often to gradually break Haqparast down. He also has the wrestling to call upon which is a hole in the German’s game, so we are backing the veteran to pick up another unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Green via Decision
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ANDREI ARLOVSKI VS JARED VANDERAA
Although he will not admit it, Andrei Arlovski (30-20(2)) is the mighty gatekeeper of the heavyweight division, and he makes the UFC walk for the 37th time. He made his debut all the way back in 2000, became the undisputed champion in 2005 and is still slugging it out with the new crop of big boys. The most surprising thing is that he is still a very good fighter. He is more calculated these days and only lost once in his last five. That was Tom Aspinall (2021) who ran right through him eventually sealing a submission, but he closed the gate and earnt unanimous decisions over Philipe Lins (2020), Tanner Boser (2020), Chase Sherman (2021) and Carlos Felipe (2021).
Jared Vanderaa (12-6) only made his UFC debut last year after knocking out Harry Hunsucker (2020) on the Contender Series. He was given a tough debut in the form of Sergey Spivak who TKO’d him in the second round. Vanderaa bounced back with a unanimous decision over Justin Tafa but was handed another strong grappler in Alexander Romanov who also captured a TKO in the second round.
PREDICTION
This is going to be an attritional battle fought on the feet and in the clinch. Vanderaa likes to initiate the clinch and wear on his opponents down with his weight. He has to drop a few pounds to make the 265 lbs limit so he will be around 25-30 lbs heavier than Arlovski on the night which could make a difference in the clinch.
Vanderaa also boasts a three-inch reach advantage which he can utilize with his jab setting up power shots such as his head kick. He has the tools to give Arlovski problems, but he will not bring anything the veteran has not seen before.
Arlovski needs to call upon all of his experience to keep control of the fight and not let it slip into a brawl. We expect this to be a back-and-forth battle that goes to the bell. It is tough to call, but we are feel The Pitbull’s experience and a steady flow of leg kicks will help him dictate the tempo and slow Vanderaa down enough to sway the judges. We can see a split decision here, in which case, the underdog is the best bet.
Prediction: Arlovski via Decision
Value Bet: Vanderaa via Decision
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ROXANNE MODAFFERI VS CASEY O’NEILL
Roxanne Modafferi (25-19) makes the walk for the last time as she hangs up the gloves after this fight. She is 4-7 in the UFC and has decent unanimous decision wins over the likes of Maycee Barber (2020) and Andrea Lee (2020) but she struggles against anyone who can defend her takedowns. We have seen this in full effect in her last two fights against Viviane Araujo and Taila Santos last year losing lob-sided unanimous decisions.
Casey O’Neill (8-0) is the next up and comer to test her skills against the veteran. She is unbeaten and finished all three of her UFC fights last year. She was handed a gimmie debut in Shana Dobson, throwing her around before finishing her with a TKO. She then submitted Lara Procopio and earnt a ‘performance of the night’ when she handed Antonina the first knockout loss of her career.
PREDICTION
O’Neill is blazing a trail and has looked superb, but as we know there is a significant skill gap between the top and bottom of the female divisions, so it remains to be seen whether she can reach the top of the rankings.
Modafferi is a great test for her especially as she has experience in derailing prospects. Barber was also 8-0 when they met having finished all but one of her opponents. Although Barber injured her knee in the fight, Modafferi schooled her with her wrestling.
Worryingly for Modafferi, O’Neill’s strengths also lie in her grappling however, she has better grappling offence than defence and she is susceptible to be taken down which is all Modafferi can offer.
As this is the veteran’s last fight she may decide to stand and trade and have some fun, but the only success we can see her having against O’Neill is getting the odd takedown. The 24-year-old has a lot of room for improvement especially in her striking, but she has the speed, power and offensive grappling to have a comfortable night.
O’Neill is the obvious pick and is a huge favourite. She finished her last four opponents, but Modafferi is very hard to put away, so we are going for a decision.
Prediction: O’Neill via Decision
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ALEX PEREZ VS MATT SCHNELL
Alex Perez (24-6) finally returns after his unsuccessful title shot last November. He was the victim in a flawless Deiveson Figueiredo performance getting submitted in the first round. He was originally scheduled to fight Brandon Moreno but filled in for Cody Garbrandt who dropped out with a torn bicep. Many thought Moreno deserved the shot at the time and they were clearly right as he went on to become the champion, but Perez is desperate to get back into action, find the form that earnt him a unanimous decision over Mark De La Rosa, a submission over Jordan Espinosa and a TKO over Jussier Formiga.
Matt Schnell (15-6) is also desperate to regain some form. After an impressive four-fight win streak which included a unanimous decision over Marco Beltran, split decision over Naoki Inoue and submissions over Louis Smolka and Jordan Espinosa. Pantoja abruptly halted the streak in December 2019 with a first round knockout and he returned a year later to earn a split decision over Tyson Nam, but he is now coming off another loss and unanimous decision to Rogerio Bontorin.
PREDICTION
Fifth time lucky for this pairing and hopefully they make it to the octagon as this will be a fun fight fought at a frenetic pace. They are both electric on the feet and very tricky on the mat. Schnell will try and keep the fight on the feet. He has ferocious hand speed and will boast a five-inch reach advantage over Perez.
Perez is also very confident on the feet and throws a lot of volume particularly with his leg kicks which will make the striking exchanges very interesting, but the difference will come in his wrestling. He will feel Schnell out on the feet but pounce on a takedown at any opportunity.
Schnell is illusive but we expect Perez to land at least one takedown in each round to get take the fight away from him. Perez is not known for his knockout power, but Schnell’s chin is weak and we could see him get put to sleep. Perez will also back himself for a submission if he can control Schnell, but he will have to tire him out to pull one off.
On paper, it is hard to see how Schnell wins this but if you want to bet, he is the man as the massive underdog,
Prediction: Perez via Decision
Value Bet: Schnell to win
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WILLIAM KNIGHT VS MAXIM GRISHIN
William Knight (11-2) steps in for Ed Herman gunning for his fourth UFC win. He made a big statement on his Contender series audition mauling Cody Brundage (2020) and then handed Aleksa Camur (2020) his first loss on his debut to announce himself in the light heavyweight division. He soon got a taste of the upper echelon losing a unanimous decision to Da Un Jung (2021) but he has bounced back with two very impressive wins – smoking Fabio Cherant (2021) and earning a unanimous decision over Alonzo Menifield (2021).
Maxim Grishin (31-9-2) fell on the wrong side of a unanimous decision in his last fight getting outclassed on the feet by Dustin Jacoby. That made it 1-2 in the UFC after losing another unanimous decision to Marcin Tybura (2020) although that is one tough debut stepping up on short notice and up at heavyweight. He then earnt a vintage TKO over Gadzhimurad Antigulov (2020) in a much kinder match-up.
PREDICTION
We are not sure how far Knight can go in the division, but he does possess two of the most dangerous skills you can have and that is powerful wrestling and one-punch knockout power. He displayed that power against Cherant and the wrestling against Menifield which was very smart.
The smart option here would be to get his wrestling boots on again as Grishin is a very dangerous striker who will be boasting a five-inch reach and height advantage. If the Russian can maintain the distance, he can pick Knight apart from range, but as soon as the distance closes Knight will be a severe threat with his hands and his takedowns.
Grishin got taken down easily by Tybura but we cannot read too much into that, but he did get taken down by Antigulov who has a 36% takedown accuracy. So, we are backing Knight to drag the Russian to the ground and grind out a decision or even finish him with ground-and-pound.
Grishin may get early success with leg kicks, but Knight has the nous to avoid the risk, get the takedown early and wind down the clock from there.
Prediction: Knight via Decision
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JACOB MALKOUN VS AJ DOBSON
Jacob Malkoun’s (5-1) UFC debut could not have gone any worse in October 2020 and he has a lot of work to do to prove he can stay afloat in the middleweight division. In two and a half years he went to 4-0 fighting for local promotions in Australia. He then took a giant leap to fight on the same card as his teammate Robert Whittaker at UFC 254 and got absolutely starched by Phil Hawes in just 18 seconds. He was then handed another knockout artist in the shape of Abdul Razak Alhassan but managed to pull off his biggest win by a mile grinding out a unanimous decision.
Now it is his time to welcome a newcomer to the UFC. AJ Dobson (6-0) enters the big stage protecting an unblemished record. He got the call-up after a very successful showing on the Contender Series submitting Hashem Arkhagha in the first round. Now, he enters the UFC to fight decent competition and like Malkoun, prove he can hang with the best middleweight in the world.
PREDICTION
It is hard to gage how good a fighter is when they have only crushed cans. However, they showed a lot of talent in their last fights. Malkoun’s wrestling is clearly the real deal and although Dobson was reckless on the feet, his hands looked ferocious and was dominant in top position.
The battle here will be between Malkoun’s wrestling and Dobson’s striking. Dobson has an important three-inch reach advantage which he will utilize, swinging aggressively from the bell. What he lacks in technique, he makes up for in power and only needs one clean connection.
However, we have not seen much of his takedown defence. Unless he lands an early knockout, we feel Malkoun will hang with Dobson with his boxing and take him down as soon as he rushes in, and it will only take one takedown to see Dobson’s gas tank drain.
Prediction: Malkoun via Decision
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