UFC Fight Night 201 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 201? Saturday 19th February, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 201? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 201? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 201 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 201? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JOHNNY WALKER VS JAMAHAL HILL
Johnny Walker (18-6) gets bumped to his second UFC main event after Rafael dos Anjos vs Rafael Fiziev got postponed to UFC 272. He needs to get a run going. After pulling off three spectacular knockouts in his first three UFC fights, some people thought he could challenge Jon Jones. Four fights later, he is 1-3 suffering a TKO to Corey Anderson (2019) and unanimous decision to Nikita Krylov (2020). He brought out another vintage knockout out the bag against Ryan Spann (2020) but lost to another beast in the shape of Thiago Santos (2021) who earnt a unanimous decision.
Jamahal Hill (9-1(1)) has stolen some of Walker’s hype after some impressive performances of his own. After a unanimous decision on debut against Darko Stosic, he knocked out Klidson Abreu (later overturned to a ‘no contest’ after popping for marijuana) and Ovince Saint Preux (both 2020). He then got his elbow dislocated by Paul Craig (2021) who eventually finished him via TKO but Hill bounced back with his most impressive win – starching fellow prospect Jimmy Crute (2021) in under a minute.
PREDICTION
These two exciting knockout artists are more than worthy of gracing a main event slot. Walker boasts three inches in reach and two in height as well as an important edge when it comes to experience.
The frustrating thing for Walker is the time it is taking to fix the holes in his game. He is one of the most electrifying strikers on the roster but gets hit way too easily. Even in his knockout over Spann, he nearly got put to sleep. That said, he looked a lot more composed and better coached against the former title challenger Santos in his last fight.
Hill will want to bring the reckless Walker back out. He carries the same knockout threat but fights more technically and compact. He will begin by throwing out his long left jab from his southpaw stance and attack the body and head with kicks and punches.
As soon as Walkers opens himself up and gets aggressive, he is just as likely to get knocked out than find one himself. We expect the team at SGB in Ireland to incorporate another more patient game plan and we may even see some clinch work as Hill is not known for his grappling.
On paper, Walker has the reach, speed, dynamism and experience and even absorbs less significant strikes per minute than Hill (2.81 to Hill’s 3.68). However, when Walker gets gets hit, he gets hit clean and Hill will only need one opportunity to put him to sleep.
We are leaning towards Hill, but we will not be surprised if a more improved Walker turns up and puts on one of his best performances, so he is the smart pick as the underdog.
Prediction: Hill via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Walker via KO/TKO
KYLE DAUKAUS VS JAMIE PICKETT
Kyle Daukaus (10-2(1)) finally returns after that controversial fight with Kevin Holland back in October. He submitted him but a harsh clash of heads dropped Holland and he clearly had not recovered to allow Daukaus to wrap up a rear-naked choke. After assessing the reply, a ‘no contest’ was rightly declared which epitomized his very ropey start in the UFC. He lost his debut against Brendan Allen (2020) losing a unanimous decision although he did step up on short notice. He then outpointed Dustin Stoltzfus (2020) but got outpointed again by Phil Hawes (2021) before the Holland fight.
Jamie Pickett (13-6) is flying high right now after many were starting to write him off. He lost his first two UFC fights – Tafon Nchukwi (2020) via unanimous decision and Jordan Wright (2021) via TKO. However, he responded with two solid unanimous decisions against Laureano Staropoli (2020) and most recently Joseph Holmes snapping his seven-fight win streak only a month ago.
PREDICTION
Staropoli and Holmes are good fighters, but Pickett still has a lot to prove in the middleweight division. The same can be said about Daukaus, but he has had a much tougher ride, so this is good matchmaking.
Daukaus is an inch taller but will be giving up a four-inch reach advantage. As Pickett has stepped up on short notice for Julian Marquez, this will also be a catchweight bout at 195 lbs. This will suit Pickett as the naturally bigger man, but it will all depend on what kind of condition he is in.
He has the power advantage over Daukaus and the extra weight will help him in the clinch and with his wrestling. That said, that is where his advantages stop. He has power in his hands, but his technique is mediocre rushing forward, squaring himself up and leaving his chin exposed.
We feel Daukaus is good enough to see his wild shots coming and counter. He has better boxing technique and should win the exchanges. Pickett can pin him against the fence, but if the fight goes to the mat from there, the fight will enter Daukaus’ domain as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.
Daukuas has better technique on the feet and would welcome any opportunity to get the fight to the ground. Pickett may try and keep the fight in the clinch for as long as possible in between reckless bursts of punches, but is likely to fade as the fight goes on creating opportunities for Daukaus to pounce on a submission.
Prediction: Daukaus via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
PARKER PORTER VS ALAN BAUDOT
Parker Porter (11-6) is coming off back-to-back unanimous decision dubs over Josh Parisian (2020) and Chase Sherman (2021). They are not exactly eye-opening wins to have on the record, but they were very important wins after getting beaten badly and TKO’d by Chris Daukaus on his UFC debut and any kind of streak in the heavyweight division is valuable.
A man who would just love a UFC win let alone a streak is Alan Baudot (8-2). There was no harm in losing his debut stepping up on short notice to take on arguably the hottest prospect in the division right now in Tom Aspinall (2020). He got TKO’d in the first round and then finished again by Rodrigo Nascimento (2021) although it was later overturned to a ‘no contest’ after the Brazilian popped for a banned substance.
PREDICTION
This is going be an exciting stand-up battle which is likely to end in a knockout. They are dangerous strikers, but not that sharp defensively so a lot of damage is going to be served here.
Baudot will look very dangerous in the first round throwing leg kicks to set up his powerful left hook and overhand right. If Porter can weather that onslaught in the first round, we back him to grow into the fight and pile on his own damage in the second and third round if it lasts that long.
We are backing Porter to do just that, and he also has his wrestling to call upon. He has never taken someone down in the UFC but with the ease in which Nascimento controlled Baudot in the clinch, we back Porter to do the same if he decides to.
That said, all the value is on Baudot. He is the heavy underdog, but he will boast a four-inch reach and three-inch height advantage as well as the speed advantage. He will be very dangerous in the first round.
Prediction: Porter via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Baudot via KO/TKO
JIM MILLER VS NIKOLAS MOTTA
Jim Miller (33-16(1)) was originally scheduled to fight Nikolas Motta in September last year at UFC Fight Night 192. However, a positive COVID-19 result forced him to pull out for the first time in his 49-fight career. A month later, he welcomed Erick Gonzalez to the octagon with an unfriendly left hand to put him out cold. The perfect way to extend his UFC record for the most appearances (38).
At the opposite end of his UFC career, Nikolas Motta (12-3) finally walks out for his debut. He has only lost once in his last six which was a TKO courtesy of Robert hale in 2018. That was for 864 Fighting Championship, and he responded with two good wins for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships knocking out Cesar Balmaceda and outpointing Juan Gonzalez in 2019. This led to an audition on the Contender Series where he earnt another unanimous decision win, this time over Joseph Lowry.
PREDICTION
With eight knockouts to his name, we can expect Motta to keep the fight standing and considering the submission prowess of the veteran, he will want to keep the distance. Miller will go toe-to-toe with the newbie uncorking that left hand and will pounce on a takedown if the opportunity presents itself.
We have not seen much of Motta’s ground skills and if the fight goes to the floor, he will be in trouble. Miller’s MMA grappling is as seasoned as it gets and with the pressure of a debut, he will be waiting for Motta to make a mistake.
The longer the fight stays on the feet the more you have to back Motta. If he can stay off his back in the first round, we fancy him to have a stronger second and third round to walk away with the win, but one mistake and he will get tangled up.
Prediction: Motta via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Miller via Submission
JOAQUIN BUCKLEY VS ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN
Joaquin Buckley (13-4) has got to be one of the most exciting fighters in the division with all of his UFC bouts ending via knockout so far. He got finished by Kevin Holland (2020) on debut, responded with one of the best knockouts of all time against Impa Kasanganay (2020), swotted away Jordan Wright (2020), got his head kicked off by Alessio Di Chirico (2021) and most recently knocked out Antonio Arroyo in September last year.
Cut from the same cloth, Abdul Razak Alhassan (11-4) makes the walk for his 10th UFC fight with only two of them going to a decision. After earning three knockouts in a row, he nearly lost his place on the roster after getting flatlined by Khaos Williams (2020) sandwiched by unanimous decision losses to Mounir Lazzez (2020) and Jacob Malkoun (2021). However, he got back to old ways in August handing De Chirico a taste of his own medicine finishing him with a glorious head kick.
PREDICTION
The UFC matchmakers are obviously hungry for a knockout here. We all know these two weapons are going to swang and bang until one man falls. They both absorb more strikes than they throw and possess devastating power in their hands and feet.
Buckley boasts a three-inch reach advantage and has a wrestling background, but Alhassan will hope he relies on his hands as despite being a judo black belt, his takedown defence is a glaring hole in his game. Unless Buckley gets tagged early, we expect this to start and finish on the feet with some explosive exchanges.
We give Buckley the slight edge with his speed, chin and cardio, but considering the power and defence on show, you have to put your money on Alhassan.
Prediction: Buckley via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Alhassan via KO/TKO
JONATHAN PEARCE VS CHRISTIAN RODRIGUEZ
Jonathan Pearce (11-4) stormed his way into the UFC off the back of five finishes including his TKO over Jacob Rosales (2019) on the Contender Series. He was welcomed by the stalwart Joe Lauzon (2019) and was even the favourite only to fall victim to the veterans first knockout in over three years. However, he then dropped back down to featherweight and got back to his old finishing ways by knocking out Kai Kamaka (2020) and submitting Omar Morales (2021).
He was originally scheduled to fight Austin Lingo, but another drop-out has opened the door for Christian Rodriquez (7-0) to make his debut. He protects an unblemished record and has finished all but one of his fights. That was a unanimous decision on the Contender Series against Reyes Cortez Jr back in October. He did make the cut as he missed weight but he kept active and submitted Ryan MacIntosh a month ago for the NAFC promotion and now steps into the big time.
PREDICTION
Pearce is understandably the favourite, but Rodriguez is unbeaten for a reason and has a lot of potential. The former bantamweight will be giving up five inches in height but will have the same reach as Pearce and he is very strong and explosive.
He fights out of Roufusport and is a brilliant striker with submissions under the belt. He will be a lot quicker than Pearce and we can see him tagging him early so there is value on him as the underdog.
However, Pearce’s strength is his wrestling and size for the division. He will be a lot bigger and heavier than Rodriguez and we expect him to wear him down with his wrestling to earn a decision.
Prediction: Pearce via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rodriguez to win
MARIO BAUTISTA VS JAY PERRIN
Mario Bautista (8-2) was preparing for Khalid Taha until a few days ago after Taha had to pull out. Thankfully, he is still on the card, and he is desperate to get back in the win column after getting TKO’d by Trevin Jones (2021). He is now 2-2 in the UFC after getting submitted by Cory Sandhagen (2019) on his debut and notching an impressive unanimous decision over Jin Soo Son (2019) and an even more impressive flying knee knockout over Miles Johns (2020).
Jay Perrin (9-4) pounces on the chance to make his UFC debut. We first saw him on the Contender Series which did not go his way losing a unanimous decision to Dwight Joseph (2019). That loss snapped a four-fight win streak which saw him become the Cage Titans bantamweight champion. He has earnt two more wins since the loss to Joseph – Diego Silva (Cage Titans, 2020) and Josh Smith (CES, 2021).
PREDICTION
Bautista will be the heavy favourite mainly due to Perrin taking this fight on such short notice. This is a big step up in competition for him and he does not have any wins on the record that will worry Bautista.
That said, Perrin is a good grappler and very durable which will be key to weathering the power of Bautista. We are backing Bautista to sway the judges with his striking but Perrin’s durability should drag this to the bell.
Prediction: Bautista via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Perrin to win
GABRIEL BENITEZ VS DAVID ONAMA
Gabriel Benitez (22-9) suffered an agonizing drop-out three days before his scheduled fight with TJ Brown last month and thankfully we have not had to wait too long to see him back. We feel he has never quite lived up to his potential. He is 6-5 in the UFC now and he has lost three of his last four. After that unforgettable slam knockout on Humberto Bandenay (2018), he got TKO’d by Sodiq Yusuff (2019) and then outpointed by Omar Morales (2020). He bounced back with a typically violent knockout folding Justin Jaynes (2020) with a knee but is coming off his third knockout loss which was to Billy Quarantillo back in July.
He has been assigned for David Onama’s (8-1) second fight in the UFC. He stepped up on short notice for a very tough debut back in October. He met Mason Jones and lost a unanimous decision which was the first loss of his career. We are expecting big things from the Ugandan. He fights out of Glory MMA and Fitness with James Krause and has a ton of potential finishing all of his wins (five knockouts and three submissions).
PREDICTION
Onama drops back down to featherweight, and this is another tough fight for him. Benitez is very experienced and will stand in front of Onama looking for the knockout. The Mexican is very dangerous and has some of the most powerful leg kicks in the division.
That said, we feel Onama can get the better of Benitez wherever the fight goes. He is very strong and athletic boasting a three-inch height and reach advantage. Krause and his coaching team will no doubt have a game plan to avoid the leg kicks and as long he avoids those bombs, he should win the striking exchanges and call upon his wrestling to take the fight away from ‘Moggly’ and announce himself at 145 lbs.
Prediction: Onama via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Benitez to win
JESSICA-ROSE CLARK VS STEPHANIE EGGER
Jessica-Rose Clark (11-6(1)) is hoping for a more active year. After losing two unanimous decisions in a row to Jessica Eye (2018) and Pannie Kianzad (2019) we were not sure what kind of future she would have in the UFC. However, after recovering from a knee injury and sticking to bantamweight, she has notched two of her best performances – rearranging Sarah Alpar’s (2020) face with knees for her third knockout and outclassing Joselyne Edwards (2021) in a unanimous decision.
Stephanie Egger (6-2) returns after her most impressive win last year. The judoka champion from Switzerland threw Shanna Young down at will and eventually forced the ref to stop the fight after a couple nasty elbows. That came in response to a very tough debut against Tracy Cortez who earnt a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
Clark displayed some strong grappling against Edwards, but Egger is a completely different fighter so Clark should rely on her Muay Thai skills for this. As a black belt in judo, Egger should have a clear advantage in the grappling department and as soon as Clark gets close, she could end up on her back.
If the fight stays on the feet, Clark can make Egger look amateur. However, she does her best work at close range and in the clinch so it will depend on what strategy the Aussie adopts.
She can win this fighting from range, but we expect these two tangling up which will favour the underdog who can leverage her judo to control her on the floor and earn a decision.
Prediction: Egger via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Egger via Decision
DIANA BELBITA VS GLORIA DE PAULA
Diana Belbita (14-6) finally got her first UFC win back in July last year. She dropped down to strawweight and took on Hannah Goldy and earnt a classy unanimous decision swaying the judges with her striking. She looked much better at 115 lbs as she struggled against the girls at flyweight losing a unanimous decision to Molly McCann (2019) on her debut and getting submitted by Liana Jojua (2020).
Gloria de Paula (5-4) has experienced to same start to her UFC career to damage her young record. She earnt a unanimous decision on the Contender Series to earn the call-up, but she lost a unanimous decision to Jinh Yu Frey (2021) on her debut and then ate Cheyanne Vlismas’ (2021) head kick leading to the first knockout loss of her career.
PREDICTION
This should be a very exciting scrap as both fighters are aggressive and exciting strikers. Belbita has an accomplished background in kickboxing, karate and kemp and de Paula Muay Thai and we can expect to see all their skills here. Belbita is the slightly bigger woman, but de Paula packs more in her punches and kicks.
Belbita may have the grappling advantage with four submissions under her belt, but we expect the majority of this fight to be duked out on the feet. As the odds suggest, this is very tough to call and we are leaning towards to Belbita. What we are confident in is that this will be a fun fight.