UFC on ESPN 42 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 42? Sunday 4th December, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 42? Amway Center, Orlando, Florida (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 42? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC on ESPN 42 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 42? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
STEPHEN THOMPSON VS KEVIN HOLLAND
Stephen Thompson (16-6-1) heads to Orlando hoping to bounce back from two unanimous decision losses. He is still one of the best strikers in the sport at the ripe old age of 39 but he is struggling against the elite grapplers. Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad grinded him out last year which stifled all the momentum he gained from earning his own typically classy unanimous decisions over Vicente Luque (2019) and Geoff Neal (2020).
Kevin Holland (23-8(1)) provides a better stylistic match-up as he hopes to respond from getting absolutely mauled by Khamzat Chimaev back at UFC 279. He did not have any time to prepare and fought at a catchweight of 180 lbs although the outcome would have been the same regardless. Now, he continues his new quest at 170 lbs where he has looked phenomenal in knocking out Alex Oliveira in March and submitting Tim Means in June.
PREDICTION
Wonderboy will be grateful he is not fighting another wrestler especially as he usually comes out on top in any striking battle. However, he will not have dealt with some of the attributes Holland possesses. He will boast a six-inch reach advantage and will bring a lot of chat to the cage, something the polite kickboxer is not used to.
Holland also has the advantage on the ground with an underrated jiu-jitsu game should the fight end up there. We expect Holland to attempt a few takedowns, but the majority of this fight should remain on the feet.
Thompson will go about business as usual by bopping in and out of range in a karate stance keeping Holland at a distance by using his kicks as a jab while setting up traps to counter in bursts of 1-2’s and array of kicks. Holland will look to press the action by chopping Wonderboy down with leg kicks while finding a home for his sweeping hooks and straight right down the pipe.
It is foolish to back against Thompson is any striking battle, but Holland has that X-factor where he can change the course of the fight with one unorthodox strike. He is unpredictable and if he can unsettle Thompson and put him off his rhythm, he has every chance of landing something harmful.
Wonderboy as an underdog is a tempting pick and a decision is most likely. We think he has still got what it takes as long as he does not get caught in the Holland whirlwind.
Prediction: Thompson via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Thompson via Decision
RAFAEL DOS ANJOS VS BRYAN BARBERENA
Bryan Barberena (18-8) is coming off the biggest win of his career. He was gifted a match-up against the legend Robbie Lawler back in July after earning a unanimous decision over Darian Weeks (2021) and a split one over Matt Brown (2022) which was the ‘Fight of the Night’. His battle with Lawler also earnt him a ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus and he managed to down the war-beaten veteran in the second round to make it three wins on the bounce.
Rafael dos Anjos (31-14) is 3-5 in his last eight, but he is still in the upper echelon of the welterweight division which is remarkable considering he has been duking it out with the cream of the crop for a decade. After losing unanimous decisions to the current champ Leon Edwards (2019) and Michael Chiesa (2020), he bounced back with a split decision over Paul Felder (2020) and an absolute pounding on Renato Moicano (2022) who took the fight on short notice. He was then on his way to beating top contender Rafael Fiziev but got caught in the fifth round to suffer his third knockout loss.
PREDICTION
This matchmaking makes sense as Barberena deserves another big name and dos Anjos steps back up to welterweight needing a break from top ranked murderers.
On paper, dos Anjos is better everywhere. He is a better striker, better wrestler, has better cardio and has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the UFC. He also has priceless five-round experience and will attack the holes in Barberena’s game.
The glaring one here, is his takedown defence. Dos Anjos will be confident in out striking Barberena, however he has the smarts to know he is too tough and dangerous to exchange with for too long. So, we expect the Brazilian to eventually take the fight to the ground and work on a submission.
A dos Anjos decision or submission are the most likely outcomes here, but considering the odds, ‘Bam Bam’ may be worth a small punt.
Prediction: Dos Anjos via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Barberena via KO/TKO
MATHEUS NICOLAU VS MATT SCHNELL
Matheus Nicolau (18-2-1) is sneaking his way up the stacked flyweight division. He has not made much noise, but he has looked superb in his three UFC outings which has extended his streak to five. He had a tough debut getting paired with Manel Kape (2021) and managed to convince two judges to get the nod. He then met Tim Elliott (2021) and David Dvorak (2022) earning more convincing unanimous decisions.
Contrastingly, Matt Schnell (16-6(1)) is making a lot of noise but struggling to make any dent in the rankings. He is 2-2(1) in his last five and is coming off two ‘Fight of the Night’ bonuses. He had a wild round with Brandon Royval back in May eventually getting submitted and is coming off an even more chaotic battle with Su Mudaerji in July. It is one of the best fights of the year and somehow wrapped up a triangle choke in the second round after being on the brink of getting knocked out.
PREDICTION
The crazy comeback win has given Schnell some much-needed momentum, but he has been handed a very tough match-up here. He will bring a furious pace and is extremely dangerous when the fight gets messy.
He is rapid, possesses knockout power in his hands and is super slick on the ground. However, Nicolau is very technical and solid everywhere which does not suit Schnell. The Brazilian will not be lured into a brawl and he is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu so if the fight goes to the floor, he will have the upper hand.
He is also solid on the feet with underrated power and footwork. He can also wrestle and we expect him to put it all together to grind out another decision. Considering the odds, Schnell may be worth a small punt but on paper, Nicolau should take this all day.
Prediction: Nicolau via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Schnell to win
TAI TUIVASA VS SERGEI PAVLOVICH
Tai Tuivasa’s (16-4) run finally came to an end back in September. He clearly made some effective adjustments after going on a three-fight skid as he went on to knock out Stefan Struve (2020), Harry Hunsucker (2021), Greg Hardy (2021), Augusto Sakai (2021) and Derrick Lewis (2022). However, he was inevitably rewarded with a fight against one of the best in Cyril Gane in September who simply outclassed him everywhere and eventually finished him in the third round to inflict the Aussie’s second knockout loss.
Sergei Pavlovich (16-1) is on a similar tear to Tuivasa’s. He received a baptism of fire on his UFC debut against Alistair Overeem (2018). The experience of the legend shone through TKOing him on the ground. However, although he has only fought four times since, Pavlovich has racked up four more first-round knockouts over Marcelo Golm (2019), Maurice Greene (2019), Shamil Abdurakhimov (2022) and Derrick Lewis back in July which officially put his name on the heavyweight map.
PREDICTION
This is a clash of titans with severe knockout power. It is going to be fascinating to see how Tuivasa uses his speed and how Pavlovich uses his abnormal nine-inch reach advantage. Abnormal as he is only 6’3” with an 84-inch arm reach – only half an inch shorter than Jon Jones and Stefan Struve.
It is hard to see this going past the second round and all the damage will be done on the feet. Pavlovich has more strings to his bow as he has the ability to take the fight to the round and rain down his hellacious ground-and-pound.
Tuivasa is the more dynamic striker and we expect him to throw more kicks, knees and he has the ability to close the distance with jumping attacks. However, he will be jumping into a tornado of long stiffening hooks from Pavlovich where one touch of leather will switch the lights off. The Russian also targets the body very well which Tuivasa has been vulnerable to.
A quick knockout either way is highly likely, so if you are going bet, go for the underdog who is Tuivasa at the moment, but we are leaning towards Pavlovich.
Prediction: Pavlovich via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Tuivasa via KO/TKO
JACK HERMANSSON VS ROMAN DOLIDZE
Jack Hermansson (23-7) has been a mixed bag in his last six going 3-3 which is a symptom of fighting top contenders. After getting TKO’d by Jared Cannonier (2019)], he submitted Kelvin Gastelum (2020). He then got outpointed by Marvin Vettori (2020) and responded with his own unanimous decision over Edmen Shahbazyan (2021). He then lost a split decision to Sean Strickland (2022) and bounced back again with a unanimous decision over Chris Curtis back in July.
He was preparing for Derek Brunson, but an injury has opened the door for Roman Dolidze (11-1). The Georgian steps up full of confidence coming off two ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses. His unanimous decision loss to Trevin Giles (2021) clearly lit a fire in his belly as he has gone on to outpoint Laureano Staropoli (2021) and starch Kyle Daukaus and Phil Hawes this year.
PREDICTION
This is the second time in a row Hermansson’s opponent has changed shortly before the date and it has turned out to be another fascinating match-up. Dolidze is the more powerful and technical striker so expect to see Hermansson’s wrestling on show again.
That was his strategy against Curtis which he apologized for, but he had nothing to be sorry about as it was the perfect strategy. It will be more of a risk here as Dolidze is a beast of a grappler and will hunt the neck. Hermansson also needs to check on one of the last people to shoot in on the Georgian as he knee’d Daukaus to Saturn.
This is going to be exciting wherever the fight goes. Hermansson can cause issues on the feet with his unorthodox striking and he can drain the gas tank on Dolidze by making him defend the takedowns. However, the Georgian is an absolute gun with a crippling body kick and dangerous hands which can easily end the fight in the first round.
If Hermansson gets him on his back, he will also back himself to wrap up a submission. That said, Hermansson is a beast on the ground and he will have the confidence of controlling the fight and even cinching up his ‘Jokertine’.
However, the real key here is Hermansson’s cardio. If he can avoid the power kicks, defend his jaw and not leave any limbs out there on the canvas for the first round, he will get stronger and stronger as Dolidze begins to wilt.
Dolidze also has not had much time to prepare so expect him to be extremely dangerous in the first round, but after that Hermansson could run away with it.
Prediction: Hermansson via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Dolidze via KO/TKO
ERYK ANDERS VS KYLE DAUKAUS
If only Eryk Anders’ (14-7(1)) talent matched his consistency. He is 6-7(1) in the UFC now after losing his last two. He earnt a unanimous decision in his rematch with Darren Stewart (2021) after his illegal knee forced a ‘no contest’ in their first meeting. However, he then got caught in a ruthless armbar courtesy of Andre Muniz (2021) and is coming off a disappointing split decision to Jun Yong Park back in May.
Kyle Daukaus (11-3(1)) has experienced a similar ride in the UFC after arriving to the big time boasting an unbeaten record. He is 2-3(1) now and is coming off a vintage submission win over Jamie Pickett wrapping him up in a beautiful brabo choke but he then suffered his first knockout loss to Roman Dolidze eating a hellacious Georgian knee.
PREDICTION
Both these guys are hard to predict. Anders has more strings to his bow with brutish strength, wrestling and that monster left hand. Daukaus is a decent boxer despite not having a knockout to his name but his bread and butter is his jiu-jitsu.
Anders has only been submitted once and that was Muniz who could submit just about anyone on the roster. If Daukaus can submit Anders it will most likely be wrapping up a choke when he shoots for a takedown. It is hard to see Anders getting out wrestled or rocked where he ends up on his back.
So, we expect to see Anders to try and keep most of this fight on the feet. He is likely to enforce the clinch, but he knows Daukaus is most dangerous if he leaves his neck out there.
It is surprising to see Daukaus as the favourite with limited avenues to victory. We can see Anders negating the submission threat with his wrestling, controlling him up against the fence and can also see him catching Daukaus clean on the feet. He has the tools to cause the upset but their fights rarely go as predicted.
Prediction: Anders via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Anders to win
NIKO PRICE VS PHILIP ROWE
Niko Price (15-5(2)) is finally back after his fight with Alex Oliveira over a year ago. It was a huge fight and unanimous decision win for him as his last dub was in 2019. That was that sensational upkick knockout on James Vick. However, he then got TKO’d by Vicente Luque (2020), drew with Donald Cerrone (2020) and then lost a unanimous decision to Michel Pereira (2021).
Philip Rowe (9-3) has only lost once in his last 10 fights. That came on his UFC debut losing a unanimous decision to Gabe Green (2021) at UFC 251. However, he regained all of his stock and more by going on to knock out Orion Cosce (2021) and Jason Witt back in February.
PREDICTION
Price brings the fireworks in every fight but it comes with a cost neglecting his defence which is a worry when his opponent is coming off two knockouts. That said, a strong gust of wind could knock out Witt with the damage he has racked up.
Price is a significant step-up in competition regardless of his rust. He is a rangy welterweight, but Rowe is one of the longest in the division and will have a four-inch reach and three-inch height advantage.
Price must be the favourite due to Rowe’s suspect takedown defence. He is a good wrestler and we expect him to shoot in for the takedown early, but Rowe has very slick jiu-jitsu and he has the striking to capitalize on Price’s recklessness. As long as Rowe does not get lured into a brawl, he has the range and power to counter.
If Price wrestles for three rounds he could make this look easy. However, he is fighting on home soil and we could easily him bring out the fireworks and get caught.
This is tough to call and we are leaning toward Price and his wrestling to sway the judges, but Rowe holds all the value.
Prediction: Price via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Rowe to win
ANGELA HILL VS EMILY DUCOTE
Angela Hill’s (14-12) unflattering record is a result of starting your MMA career in the UFC and she is a formidable gatekeeper the strawweight’s upper echelon. She is coming off a much-needed win over the up-and-coming Loopy Godinez back in August. She did enough to convince all three judges which came with great relief after losing three decisions on the bounce to Tecia Torres (2021), Amanda Lemos (2021) and Virna Jandiroba (2022).
She welcomes the next up-and-comer Emily Ducote (12-6) to Orlando. She only made her UFC debut five months ago against Jessica Penne. She stuffed all eight of her takedowns on the way to a unanimous decision to extend her streak to four. She outpointed Juliana Lima (2020) and knocked out Danielle Taylor (2021) and Alesha Zappitella (2022) for Invicta.
PREDICTION
Ducote has not fought anyone near the level of competition Hill has fought but she is the favourite for a reason. She is very well-rounded as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and taekwondo and is also nine years younger than Hill.
Hill has hit her ceiling and Ducote is not even in her prime. That said, this is the toughest fight of Ducote’s career. Hill does not have threatening knockout power, but she has exceptional technique with strong Muay Thai and kickboxing. She also has solid takedown defence and if Jandiroba could not submit her, it is hard to see Ducote having more success.
Ducote has more strings to her bow and she will be competitive on the feet and have the edge in the grappling exchanges. It is very likely this will end in a decision and Hill holds all the value considering the odds, but we are backing Ducote to scrape by with her accuracy and power swaying the judges.
Prediction: Ducote via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Hill via Decision
MICHAEL JOHNSON VS MARC DIAKIESE
Michael Johnson (20-18) makes the short trip to Orlando for his 27th UFC fight. Coined as one of the biggest under-achievers in the UFC, he has only won one of his last six fights. He went on an almighty skid losing to Josh Emmett (2019), Stevie Ray (2019), Thiago Moises (2020) and Clay Guida (2021) before turning back the clock with a knockout over Alan Patrick (2022). However, he is coming off another loss which was a split decision to Jamie Mullarkey back in July.
Marc Diakiese (16-5) is also a UFC vet now making his debut back in 2016. He is 7-5 in the big leagues and it is fair to say he is also an under-achiever. He made his name as an athletic and electrifying striker, but he has called upon his wrestling in recent times. He is coming off two unanimous decision wins this year grinding out Viacheslav Borschev and Damir Hadzovic.
PREDICTION
Johnson has always had an abundance of talent particularly on the feet and he is one of the most experienced fighters on the roster, but he just has a knack of finding a way to lose. We know his hands are still ferociously quick and dangerous as we saw in the Alan Patrick fight so we are likely to see Diakiese the wrestler turn up in Orlando.
If they both let their hands and feet go, this would be the ‘fight of the night’ but we expect Diakiese to fall back on his takedowns. Johnson has decent defence and we expect a lot of this fight to consist of Diakiese pressing Johnson up against the fence in a clinch.
They are both capable of a knockout. If it falls to Johnson it will most likely come in the first round, so if this goes past five minutes, back Diakiese. If the Brit calls upon the skills that got him to the dance, we can see him stealing the show with a knockout but we expect him to play it safe.