UFC 282 - Breakdowns & Predctions
When is UFC 282? Sunday 11th December, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 282? T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 282? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 282
What channel is UFC 282 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 282? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JAN BLACHOWICZ VS MAGOMED ANKALAEV
Jan Blachowicz (29-9) was not expecting to be headlining UFC 282, let alone for the light heavyweight strap. Glover Teixeira (2021) took the belt off him with a clinical grappling display submitting him in the second round. Jiri Prochazka then submitted the Brazilian in a wild battle and their rematch was scheduled for this card, but Prochazka was forced out with a bad shoulder injury. He decided to vacate the title so, Blachowicz stepped up for his own rematch only for Teixeira to refuse the match-up.
This has opened the door for Magomed Ankalaev (18-1). It was only a matter of time before he challenged for the title, however, fortunate circumstances from his point of view has delivered his dream opportunity right on his lap. He only has one loss in the books which occurred on his debut against Paul Craig (2018). He was cruising the fight but got caught in the Scot’s triangle in the last second of the fight. Ankalaev has made up for it by winning his last nine coming off a unanimous decision over Thiago Santos and a TKO over Anthony Smith this year.
PREDICTION
The light heavyweight division has come a long way in the last few years illustraed by this match-up which should really be a number one contender fight. They are both extremely well-rounded. They are both supreme strikers where Ankalaev has the edge when it comes to wrestling and Blachowicz has the edge when it comes to jiu-jitsu.
Blachowicz is more likely to initiate any grappling however, he has duked it out with top tier strikers including Israel Adesanya and the power in his left hand is well known so he will be very confident on the feet. However, Ankalaev is arguably the best striker in the division.
The Russian will look to control the range luring Blachowicz into his web where he will pierce the guard with his jab and 1-2 and hope to find a home for his lethal kicks. The Pole on the other hand will want to close the distance and keep this at Muay Thai range targeting the body and setting up his monster left hook .
We can see Ankalaev landing more while constantly circling forcing Blachowicz to jump on a clinch and try and drag the fight to the canvas like he did to Adesanya. It would be very interesting if he can get Ankalaev on his back. The Russian has exceptional takedown defence so Blachowicz will have to expend a lot of energy to try.
This is going to be extremely competitive in the striking and grappling exchanges. Blachowicz has the advantage when it comes to experience and five-round fights, but if he cannot mix in some grappling or break the distance, he will be in for a long night.
We feel Ankalaev’s sambo and takedown defence could swing this in his favour by keeping the majority of the fight on the feet. We feel he has what it takes to win and even get a knockout. However, he will have to fight through the most adversity has experienced so far in his career.
Prediction: Ankalev via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value bet: Blachowicz to win
PADDY PIMBLETT VS JARED GORDON
Paddy Pimblett (19-3) has shouted his way into a co-main slot on a pay-per-view card. To be fair, he has backed up the noise with his performances. He has fought three times in the UFC racking up three ‘Performance of the Night’ bonuses. He knocked out Luigi Vendramini (2021) in the first round and submitted Rodrigo Vargas and Jordan Leavitt this year.
Jared Gordon (19-5) has been awarded the golden ticket and is coming off a solid unanimous decision win over Leonardo Santos back August. That was in response to submission loss to Grant Dawson in April which snapped a three-fight win streak which included decisions over Chris Fishgold (2020), Danny Chavez (2021) and Joe Solecki (2021). A win here will give him even more momentum than that streak.
PREDICTION
Gordon has the golden ticket, but this is a great opportunity for Pimblett to prove his calibre. He will be licking his lips looking at Gordon’s loss column which contains all finishes. He has been knocked out four times and submitted once. Pimblett is a natural finisher, we all know about his submission prowess, but he can also crack so he will be confident of ending this fight quickly.
He will boast a five-inch reach advantage and will leverage it from the bell. He will start quickly targeting the chin with his hands. Gordon will be expecting this and he will have the confidence of weathering the Leonard Santos storm who has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the division.
He defended all of his takedown attempts although Pimblett will not shoot for an orthodox takedown, he will try and put Gordon on his back with a whirlwind of unpredictable strikes.
Gordon is a top fighter and if he can get through the first round he has a chance, but his chin is a real worry here. We expect Pimblett to catch him early and either finish job with his hands or ruthlessly pounce on a submission.
Prediction: Pimblett via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
SANTIAGO PONZINIBBIO VS ALEX MORONO
Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-6) misses out on a dream fight with Robbie Lawler who has had to pull out with injury. He was storming his way to a title shot after smoking Neil Magny back in 2018 but injuries stole all of his momentum forcing him out for over two years. He got knocked out by Li Jingliang (2021) on his return fight, bounced back with a gutsy unanimous decision over Miguel Baeza (2021) but is coming off two decision losses to Geoff Neal (2021) and Michel Pereira (2022).
Alex Morono (22-7(1)) pounces on the opportunity to grace the pay-per-view card and he is full of confidence. He is currently riding a four-fight win streak which includes a TKO over Donald Cerrone (2021) and unanimous decisions over David Zawada (2021), Mickey Gall (2021) and Matt Semelsberger back in July.
PREDICTION
This will be at a catchweight of 180 lbs as Morono would have never of made the 170 lb mark. This is a huge opportunity for him as he has little to lose taking on someone of the calibre of Ponzinibbio on such short notice.
Like Lawler, Morono is also an aggressive striker but Ponzinibbio has also spent all camp training for a southpaw. Morono is also a quality grappler as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and he will be wise to mix it up knowing Ponzinibbio will not be well prepared for it.
That said, we expect the majority of this to remain on the feet. It will be competitive, but we feel Ponzinibbio will land more as the fight goes on finding a home for his rapid 1-2. He has more left in the tank and taking Neal and Pereira to a split decision is nothing to be scoffed at.
Morono would struggle against those two and we feel the extra 10 pounds will help Ponzinibbio. He will be more hydrated, more durable and more explosive.
Prediction: Ponzinibbio via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DARREN TILL VS DRICUS DU PLESSIS
Darren Till (18-4-1) returns with a lot to prove. After promising big things in the welterweight and middleweight division, the scouser has gone 1-4 in has last five. Injuries have limited his performances and he has been matched with the elite of the division. He got submitted by a prime Tyron Woodley (2018) for the welterweight title and knocked out by Jorge Masvidal (2019) before a well-earned split decision over Kelvin Gastelum (2019). He then succumbed to Robert Whittaker (2020) in a unanimous decision and is coming off a submission to Derek Brunson back in September last year.
Dricus du Plessis (17-2) has been handed the biggest fight of his life and it is well earned. He has only lost once in his last 14 and kicked off his UFC campaign with a bang. He buried Markus Perez (2020) on his debut and followed that up with another burial of Trevin Giles (2021). He then proved he can go a full three rounds back in July against a higher calibre fighter earning a unanimous decision over Brad Tavares to extend his streak to five.
PREDICTION
It is good to see Till get a more sensible matchup but although du Plessis is not a top contender or even a big name yet, he is a very dangerous opponent. He possesses savage knockout power and if full to the brim with confidence with three quality UFC performances in the bank.
Till’s confidence has always been one of his greatest assets, but it has been dented. It may help him here as he will have to be patient and weather the early storm of du Plessis. The South African is extremely aggressive and presses forward with high volume.
If Till gets caught early, he will be climbing an uphill battle. However, we expect to see the Till of old with his Muay Thai fully tuned. He will welcome the attacks of du Plessis so he can download the data he needs to control the range. Then, he will fire of his ferocious legs and counter with his 1-2 which could be money as du Plessis tends to leave his chin exposed.
Once he gets comfortable, we could also see some scouse elbows when the distance closes. If Till Is patient in the first round and respects the power of du Plessis he can grow into the fight and eventually capitalize on his suspect defence and counter right on the button after chopping down the legs.
This is likely to be a cagey performance from Till, but he has better offensive and defensive technique on the feet. We expect him to earn a decision at least and considering he is the underdog, all the value is on him.
Prediction: Till via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Till via KO/TKO
BRYCE MITCHELL VS ILIA TOPURIA
Bryce Mitchell (15-0) finally returned to action back in March after not fighting for 17 months. Back, then, he made it five UFC wins from five by earning a unanimous decision over Andre Fili (2020). He was then handed a huge fight and his biggest test in Edson Barboza. He passed it with flying colours nullifying the striking assassin with his wrestling to extend his unbeaten record.
Another prospect protecting his unbeaten record is Ilia Topuria (12-0). He has four UFC bouts in the bank and has made a lot more noise in the cage. He earnt a unanimous decision over Youssef Zalal (2020) on debut and has gone on the string together three sensational knockouts – Damon Jackson (2020), Ryan Hall (2021) and Jai Herbert (2022).
PREDICTION
This is the perfect way to kick off the main card with both undefeated fighters hoping to fire themselves in amongst the top contenders of the stacked division.
Topuria moves back down to featherweight after his dusting of Herbert and after earning his reputation as a submission ace, those three clean knockouts he just reeled off have stamped ‘future title contender’ on his name.
Mitchell is a beast of a grappler himself with some beautiful submissions in the bank and his wrestling has been too much for his recent opponents which makes this very interesting as Topuria is lethal off his back.
Topuria’s dismantling of Ryan Hall who has the best jiu-jitsu in the division will give him confidence. However, when it comes to wrestling, Mitchell is a different beast. If he can take Topuria down, he will be relentless with his ground-and-pound to keep the Georgian subdued.
The grappling contest will be extremely compelling. If their skills cancel each other out forcing a stand-up battle, then you have to back Topuria. His striking and power is on a different level to Mitchell.
Mitchell is going to wrestle from the bell and we can see him controlling him long enough to snatch a decision. We can also see Topuria attacking off his back and getting back to his feet where he can land at will. This is tough to call, but we are backing the Georgian to create enough space to land the telling damage.
Prediction: Topuria via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
RAUL ROSAS JR VS JAY PERRIN
Raul Rosas Jr (6-0) waltzes onto the pay-per-view card as the youngest ever fighter in the UFC. He has only recently turned 18 years old and got the contract after earning a unanimous decision over Mando Gutierrez on the Contender Series. That was only back in September and it stretched his unbeaten record to 6.
Jay Perrin (10-6) meets him hoping to spoil the show. He has fought twice this year but is still searching for his first UFC win. He made his debut against Mario Bautista losing a unanimous decision and then got outpointed again by Qileng Aori in August.
PREDICTION
The UFC know what they are doing when the feel they have found a gem. They have thrown Rosas onto a pay-per-view card for his debut and have given him a kind matchup where he is fully expected to win.
Perrin is well-rounded and he knows he has to keep the fight on the feet at all costs. He will have to be calm and wait to counter expecting Rosas to throw wild jumping attacks and turning them into takedowns.
The Mexican is so young, and the big stage can easily unnerve him and force a mistake. However, we feel he will rise to the occasion, and we expect him to get Perrin down and control him on the floor. There, he will rain down the ground-and-pound to set up a submission.
Prediction: Rosas via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK VS CHRIS DAUKAUS LOWDOWN
It is fair to say we know what Jairzinho Rozenstruik’s (12-4) ceiling is. It is a very high one though only falling to the elite of the division. He suffered his first loss in the most brutal way possible getting hit into the shadow realm by the current champion Francis Ngannou (2020). He responded with a vintage knockout of his own over Junior dos Santos (2020) before getting outclassed and outpointed by Cyril Gane (2021). He quickly disposed of Augusto Sakai (2021) but is now coming off two more losses - a unanimous decision to Curtis Blaydes (2021) and a TKO courtesy of Alexander Volkov back in June.
Chris Daukaus (12-5) has also recently discovered how dangerous it is at the top. He smoked his first four UFC opponents – Parker Porter (2020), Rodrigo Nascimento (2020), Alexey Oleynik (2021) and Shamil Abdurakhimov (2021). However, those wins led him into the path of Derrick Lewis (2021) and Blaydes (2022) who gave him a taste of his medicine.
JAIRZINHO ROZENSTRUIK VS CHRIS DAUKAUS PREDICTION
Rozenstruik is a very tough matchup for any heavyweight coming off two knockout losses. He is one of the best kickboxers in the division with ferocious knockout power and he will have a two-inch reach advantage.
Daukaus looked phenomenal in his first four UFC fights where his speed was simply too much for his victims. This will be the key against Rozenstruik who is a very patient counter striker.
We can see this starting slowly with Rozenstruik waiting for Daukaus to open himself up by the Philly native hesitant to pull the trigger. Now would be the perfect time to see his black belt Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills.
If he can get the fight to the ground, we would back him to find a submission but getting the Suriname native down is easier said than down with a 75% takedown defence.
If Daukaus mixes in his grappling and is patient with his hands, he has every chance. However, this is a tough stylistic match-up for him and we expect Rozenstuik to look rather inactive but explode at the right moment.
Prediction: Rozenstruik via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Daukaus to win
EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN VS DALCHA LUNGIAMBULA
Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3) is on a three-fight skid with many having already written him off. However, he is only 25 years old and lost to Derek Brunson (2020), Jack Hermansson (2021) and Nassourdine Imavov (2021) who are some of the best fighters in the middleweight division. He still has a lot to offer and this is the perfect opportunity to prove it.
Dalcha Lungiambula (11-5) will have to overturn his own poor run of form to pile on the misery. He got front kicked into next week by Magomed Ankalaev (2019) and responded with a unanimous decision over Markus Perez (2021) but is now also on a three-fight skid losing to Marc-Ander Barriault (2021 – unanimous decision), Cody Brundage (2022 – submission) and Punahele Soriano (2022 – knockout).
PREDICTION
Both fighters are at a crossroads here as a loss could easily send them out of the UFC. The blueprint to beating Shahbazyan is out muscling him and wrestling him for three rounds. Lungiambula has the power, but he does not have the grappling of the likes of Brunson, Hermansson and Imavov.
That said he comes from a judo background and if they tie up, he has the technique and power to throw Shahbazyan down. However, we do not think Lungiambula will not be able to keep him there which will force the majority of the fight on the feet.
Lungiambula will be very dangerous, but we expect Shahbazyan to win the exchanges. If he allows himself to settle and plays it safe in the first round, we can see him grow into the fight and display his old form. His output will continue to build as Lungiambula fades with his array of strikes in particular his kicks making the difference.
Prediction: Shahbazyan via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CHRIS CURTIS VS JOAQUIN BUCKLEY
Chris Curtis (29-9) finally got derailed back in July. He burst onto the scene as the short notice replacement extraordinaire. His first two UFC fights were against Phil Hawes (2021) and Brendan Allen (2021) as the significant underdog but knocked them both out. He then took on of the submission wizard Rodolfo Vieira (2022) and earnt a unanimous decision to extend his impressive streak to eight. He then stepped up on short notice again to fight Jack Hermansson but he had too much class on the night cruising a unanimous decision.
Joaquin Buckley (15-5) heads to Vegas for one last bang at middleweight before moving down to 170 lbs. He has been very impressive considering he is undersized for the division going 5-3. He is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Nassourdine Imavov back in September which snapped a decent streak including a knockout over Antonio Arroyo (2021), split decision over Abdul Razak Alhassan (2022) and vintage TKO over Albert Duraev.
PREDICTION
It was fate that these two would meet each other. They are both aggressive knockout artists who are natural welterweights. They have also been super active with both of them each fighting nine times in the last two years.
This is going to be an intense battle on the feet where they both have the confidence in knocking each other out. Curtis has the edge when it comes to experience and he will try and walk Buckley down relying on his chin to step into range and home in on the chin.
On the other hand, Buckley is more athletic and explosive. He will keep moving and bouncing around threatening to land something severe from range. His left hand will be corked at all times and if it lands clean it can shut the lights out.
The longer the fight goes on, the more you have to back Curtis who will bring a steadier pace. We can see Buckley having a better first round but fading in the third if it goes there. A variety of outcomes are possible here, but we feel Buckley will inflict enough damage in the first two rounds to convince the judges.
Prediction: Buckley via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
TJ BROWN VS ERIK SILVA
TJ Brown (16-9) had a rough start to his UFC career getting submitted by Jordan Griffin (2020) on debut and then outpointed by Danny Chavez (2020). He bounced back with a couple of tough decision wins of his own over Kai Kamaka (2021) and Charles Rosa (2022). However, his momentum was halted back in June after Shayilan Nuerdanbieke did enough to the nod from all three judges.
Erik Silva (9-1) is coming in hot off the back of eight straight wins finishing his last six victims in the first round (two knockouts and four submissions).He has fought twice this year already submitting Edgar Garcia Cabello for the Lux Fight League and shining on the Contender Series with a merciless TKO over Anvar Boynazarov.
PREDICTION
This will be one of the toughest fights of Silva’s career so far. Brown is well-rounded as a dangerous striker who loves to wrestle. He averages nearly four takedowns per 15 minutes but there are question marks over his defensive grappling.
Silva is a beast on the deck and if he can get Brown on his back, we expect him to pin him down and pummel him which could also set up a submission. However, the difference could easily come on the feet.
The Venezuelan is also a very strong striker and we expect him to get the better of the exchanges before dragging or knocking Brown to the ground where he has the power to find a knockout and technique to find a submission.