UFC Vegas 65 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 215? Sunday 20th November, 2022 - 10:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 215? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 215? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night
What channel is UFC Fight Night 215 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 215? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ION CUTELABA VS KENNEDY NZECHUKWU
The ever-exciting, ever-inconsistent Ion Cutelaba (18-8-1(1)) marches out for his 14th UFC fight. He has only won once in his last six which was a rare unanimous decision over Devin Clark (2021) which came after a hard-fought draw with Dustin Jacoby (2021). Now, he is coming off two submission losses this year to Ryan Spann and Johnny Walker.
Not one for consistency either, Kennedy Nzechukwu (10-3) makes his eighth UFC appearance. He was gaining some serious momentum after knocking out Carlos Ulberg (2021) and Danilo Marques (2021) but then got clapped by Da Un Jung (2021) and lost a split decision to Nicolae Negumereanu (2022). However, he is coming off another impressive knockout over Karl Roberson back in July.
PREDICTION
Cutelaba will be relieved to see Nzechukwu’s empty submission column. The Nigerian will come to bang and that is exactly what Cutelaba thrives off. Nzechukwu will boast a significant eight-inch arm and six-inch leg reach advantage.
So, if he begins to find a home for his jab, expect Cutelaba to call upon his grappling to tie him up and throw him to the canvas. The Moldovan’s aggressiveness/recklessness has got him into trouble at this level and Nzechukwu has the length and accuracy to snipe the chin as he rushes in.
Cutelaba has to respect Nzechukwu’s power, but still stick to what got him to the dance and be aggressive. He just has to be calculated and time his takedowns in between his explosive combinations.
He has the tools to find the knockout and the grappling to grind out a decision. That said, we can see why the Nigerian is the favourite. He will be patient waiting to counter and will expel less energy to finish strong and capitalize on Cutelaba’s gas tank.
A knockout either way is very likely and the range and cardio of Nzechukwu make him the favourite. However, the Moldovan’s job could be on the line here which may force him to play it safe and stick to his grappling so a decision would be a bold value bet. We have a feeling he will pull off the upset.
Prediction: Cutelaba via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CHASE SHERMAN VS WALDO CORTES-ACOSTA
It is good to see Chase Sherman (16-10) on this card after Josh Parisian pulled out of UFC Vegas 64 last minute. Especially as he is coming off the biggest win of his career in knocking out Jared Vanderaa back in July. That took his UFC tally to 4-9 after four straight losses – unanimous decisions to Andre Arlovski (2021) and Parker Porter (2021) and submissions to Jake Collier (2022) and Alexander Romanov (2022).
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (8-0) is also coming off a win over Vanderaa and it is a fresh one only earning a unanimous decision three weeks ago. It was a fantastic UFC debut proving he can go a tough three rounds and it extended his unbeaten record. The perfect preparation for Sherman.
PREDICTION
Sherman must have seen Vanderaa eat up Cortes-Acosta’s legs with numerous kicks. He was not defending them and Vanderaa should have really capitalized. You would hope Sherman will adopt a similar strategy especially as he has decent leg kicks himself.
Sherman does his best work with his hands, but if he relies on them too much, he will end up eating a bomb. Cortes-Acosta has thunderous hands and considering Sherman’s defence, the chances of one of his grenades landing is high.
That is why he is the favourite and we are backing him to find a knockout. However, considering the odds along with Sherman’s speed and experience, ‘The Vanilla Gorilla’ is worth a small punt.
Prediction: Cortes-Acosta via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ANDRE FIALHO VS MUSLIM SALIKHOV
Andre Fialho (16-5(1)) has had a wild 2022. He started it by making his UFC debut against Michel Pereira losing a unanimous decision, then built some serious steam by sparking out Miguel Baeza and Cameron VanCamp. However, Jake Matthews derailed him with a taste of his medicine landing a vicious right hand and now he steps out for his fifth fight of the year.
Muslim Salikhov (18-3) got derailed himself back in July. The sanda specialist was riding an impressive five-fight win streak including decisions over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (2020) and Francisco Trinaldo (2021). He then met Li Jingliang who inflicted the first knockout loss of his MMA career.
PREDICTION
This is a mouth-watering match-up between two talented and heavy-handed strikers. Salikhov can obviously grapple but he has done his best work with his hands and feet in the UFC.
Not many people expected Salikhov to lose a stand-up battle, let alone get knocked out. So after Jingliang finally broke his chin and considering Fialho will boast a four-inch reach advantage and arguably has the heavier hands, the odds are very close.
That said, we are backing the Russian. Although Fialho is extremely dangerous and his left hand can put anyone out, he is predictable with a one-dimensional attack. For somebody as seasoned as Salikhov, he should be a bigger favourite.
We expect Fialho’s durability to drag this fight to the bell but Salikhov should be able to outclass the Portuguese native on the feet and on the deck to earn a decision.
Prediction: Salikhov via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
JACK DELLA MADDALENA VS DANNY ROBERTS
Jack Della Maddalena (12-2) is becoming a hot prospects in the stacked welterweight division. He arrived to the UFC on a 10-fight win streak, which does not always mean much, but he outclassed Ange Loosa (2021) on the Contender Series and has looked a different class on the feet stepping up to the UFC racking up first-round knockouts over Pete Rodriguez and Ramazan Emeev.
Danny Roberts (18-6) walks out for his 13th UFC bout. He has had a very tough run in the UFC and has done well to compile a record of 7-5. He looked at his best melting Zelim Imadaev (2019) with a beautiful left hand and earning a hard-fought split decision over the grappler Ramazan Emeev (2021). However, he then crossed paths with the old truck Francisco Trinaldo back in May losing a unanimous decision to halt the momentum.
PREDICTION
This is another super tough fight for Roberts. He will be grateful he is not up against a grappler so he can showcase his strengths. However, Maddalena is one of the best boxers in the division.
Roberts has ferocious hands himself which will create a thrilling stand-up battle. If Roberts mixes in his improving grappling with level-changes in between combinations, he has a chance.
However, it is hard to see Maddalena not piling on the damage before Roberts even attempts a takedown, if he does. He also has good jiu-jitsu so will not mind being put on his back. We can see some feisty exchanges but it hard to see the Aussie not being left standing over the Brit.
Prediction: Maddalena via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
KEVIN NATIVIDAD VS RICKY TURCIOS LOWDOWN
After a five-fight win streak crushing it under the LFA banner, Kevin Natividad (9-3) earnt a well-deserved call-up to the big time. However, his introduction to the UFC could not have gone worse. He got flatlined by a Miles Johns (2020) uppercut and then got clapped by a crisp Batgerel Danaa left hook (2021) to suffer two knockouts on the bounce.
He meets Ricky Turcios (11-3) who is also coming off a deflating loss. After winning The Ultimate Fighter 29 in 2021 by earning a split decision over Brady Heistand, he was out for nearly a year. He made his much-anticipated return against Aiemann Zahabi in July as the favourite but lost a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
There a lot of question marks over Turcios after Zahabi crushed the hype he built from The Ultimate Fighter. The same can be said for Natividad who will be grateful he is not up against another power puncher with three knockout losses in the books.
Turcios is three inches taller, but their reach is very similar. They are both well-rounded. Turcios brings the energy and volume, but his takedown defence is a real worry as Natividad is a powerful wrestler. However, his chin has taken a beating and although Turcious does not possess knockout power, he can afford to absorb too many unanswered strikes.
This is tough to predict. We can see Natividad getting his wrestling boots on and grinding Turcios down. We can also see Turcios constantly moving and picking Natividad off from awkward angles landing a ton of volume.
Natividad holds the value as the underdog, but we are leaning towards a Turcios decision.
Prediction: Turcios via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
VANESSA DEMOPOULOS VS MARIA OLIVEIRA LOWDOWN
After stepping up to fight JJ Aldrich (2021) on short notice, Vanessa Demopoulos (8-4) dropped to 1-3 in four fights. She lost a unanimous decision on debut and also lost decisions against the formidable Cory McKenna (2020) on the Contender Series and Loopy Godinez (2020) for LFA. However, she is starting to show her true colours by submitting Silvana Gomez Juarez and outpointing Jinh Yu Frey this year.
We are yet to see what Maria Oliviera (13-5) is really made of. She stepped out for her UFC debut last year against Tabatha Ricci who completely stifled her with her grappling to earn a unanimous decision. She then took on Gloria de Paula back in June and picked up her first UFC win, but it was a razor-thin split decision.
VANESSA DEMOPOULOS VS MARIA OLIVEIRA PREDICTION
Oliveira will boast a four-inch height and nine and a half-inch reach advantage which is colossal at strawweight. We can fully expect Demopoulos to try and close that distance as soon as possible put the Brazilian on her back.
Oliveira is a dangerous striker with suspect takedown defence, so the clear route to victory is to tie her up and at the least grind out a decision. Do not expect Demopoulos to have the same success as Ricci, but if she is persistent, she can bag a couple rounds.
However, Oliveira just needs to defend the majority of takedown attempts to completely swing the fight in her favour and piece Demopoulos up from range.
This will be close and expect both ladies to succeed in their strategies, but Demopoulos’ wrestling and control time could be enough to sway a couple judges at least.
Prediction: Demopoulos via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Demopoulos via Decision
BRADY HIESTAND VS FERNIE GARCIA LOWDOWN
We have not seen Brady Heistand (5-2) since losing The Ultimate Fighter 29 finale. He came close to winning the crown, but failed toto convince two judges losing a split decision to Ricky Turcios who is also on the card. That was over a year ago and now he is back at the APEX to shake off the cobwebs.
Fernie Garcia (10-2) is also coming off a decision loss. He earnt four decisions in a row for LFA to earn an audition on the Contender Series which he passed by knocking out Joshua Weems. However, Journey Newson ruined his debut back in May.
BRADY HIESTAND VS FERNIE GARCIA PREDICTION
Hiestand has been out for a hot minute, but he has still been training like a beast. He should bring some different looks to the table, but we can expect him to wrestle for three rounds.
He will set up his takedown attempts with heavy punches which will be a risk as Garcia is a solid technical boxer. He will be ready to sprawl, but if Hiestand throws wild looping shots, Garcia will counter like a sniper.
We can see Garcia causing a lot of damage, but we are leaning towards a Heistand decision as he will be relentless in his takedown attempts and only needs a couple per round to bag the points.
Prediction: Hiestand via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
NATALIA SILVA VS TEREZA BLEDA
Natalia Silva (13-5-1) was racking up the armbar’s on the regional scene and arrived to the UFC on a six-fight win streak which included five armbar’s and a rear-naked choke. She made her debut in June this year against Jasmine Jasudavicius who was a step-up in competition and rose to the occasion winning a unanimous decision.
Now, she is the one to welcome a debutant in Tereza Bleda (6-0). She made a name for herself in the Slovakian Oktagon MMA promotion and won her first five fights including two submissions and two knockouts. They earnt her a shot on the Contender Series against Nayara Arnault Maia Correia back in September and got the nod from all three judges to secure a UFC contract.
PREDICTION
Bleda has looked superb so far in her young career. She is experienced with a successful amateur background and is only 20 years old. She is a fierce grappler and will boast a six-inch reach and five-inch height advantage which will assist her in wrapping Silva up.
Silva also has a ton of potential. She is a submission wizard and her striking is very slick. While this fight is on the feet, she will look a different class despite the size discrepancy. She also will not mind fighting off her back hunting an arm.
If Silva continues to improve, we can see her remaining illusive to keep the fight on the feet long enough to sway the judges with her volume. However, the size and power of Bleda could make all the difference and as the underdog, she is a no brainer for a pick.