UFC Vegas 66 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 216? Saturday 17th December, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 216? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 216? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night
What channel is UFC Fight Night 216 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 216? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JARED CANNONIER VS SEAN STRICKLAND
Jared Cannonier (15-6) returns after his unsuccessful title attempt back in July. He was coming off two big-name wins over Kelvin Gastelum (2021) who he outclassed on his way to a unanimous decision and Derek Brunson (2022) who he buried with elbows to earn the ‘Performance of the Night’. That earnt him a shot at Israel Adesanya who’s wizardry froze Cannonier for five rounds losing a unanimous decision.
Sean Strickland (25-4) was also riding his way to a title shot on a six-fight win streak. He was unbeaten at middleweight and was coming off a TKO over Brendan Allen (2020) and decisions over Krzysztof Jotko (2021), Uriah Hall (2021) and Jack Hermansson (2022). They earnt him a number one contender fight with Alex Pereira back in July who became another victim getting knocked out in the first round which must have hurt slightly less after watching the Brazilian go on to knock out Adesanya to become the middleweight champion.
PREDICTION
This is a fascinating striking contest to close out the year. They are both elite strikers with contrasting skill sets. Strickland is all about volume and will relentlessly walk his opponents down enforcing a suffocating pressure. Cannonier on the other hand is very patient and wait for openings to throw unholy power.
Strickland’s fight with Pereira must have been a real eye opener. He was obviously not on the Brazilian’s level in terms of skill and power so was expected to incorporate his wrestling. He said that was part of the strategy but he got starched before enforcing anything.
Cannonier carries a similar threat, so Strickland may actually try and wrestle this time especially if he get starts to get tagged. However, Cannonier’s takedown defence is very strong and we expect Strickland to try to walk him down which will play right into The Killa Gorilla’s hands.
Cannonier will begin by chopping Strickland’s legs down which will be an easy target. He will also welcome him to walk into range knowing his chin will be high. Cannonier is not as big as Pereira and not on his level but he will try and set the same traps by attacking the body and legs to lower Strickland’s hands.
We can see why Strickland is the favourite. If Cannonier starts slow, Strickland can bag a couple rounds landing his jab at will and he has the cardio to up the volume and win a decision.
However, this is a good stylistic match-up for Cannonier and the power advantage will be evident here. Expect him to slow Strickland down with legs kicks and eventually find the chin.
Prediction: Cannonier via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Cannonier via KO/TKO
ARMAN TSARUKYAN VS DAMIR ISMAGULOV
Arman Tsarukyan (18-3) is still one of the hottest prospects in the lightweight division despite coming off a loss. He made his debut against Islam Makhachev (2019) and although he lost a unanimous decision, he gave the current champ a run for his money going toe-to-toe in the grappling exchanges. He then strung together five dominant wins including knockouts over Christos Giagos (2021) and Joel Alvarez (2022) before meeting Mateusz Gamrot back in June. It was an incredible battle against one of few men to match his grappling prowess and fell short in another unanimous decision.
Now, he meets another lightweight beast boasting an extremely impressive record in Damir Ismagulov (24-1). He is riding a 19-fight win streak which include five UFC caps. They are all decision wins which is why not many people are shouting his name but they are quality wins including Alvarez (2019), Thiago Moises (2019), Rafael Alves (2021) and Guram Kutateladze back in June.
PREDICTION
Tsarukyan’s striking continues to improve but he has to stick to his bread and butter which is his grappling. Ismagulov is also well-rounded but his striking is top tier and will only use his grappling defensively.
Tsarukyan has been beaten twice by grapplers, but those were arguably to the only two lightweights that can out grapple him so it is easy to forget how much of a beast he is. If he gets his hands on Ismagulov, we expect him to drag him to the ground and keep him there while raining down the ground-and-pound.
So, the question is how long can Ismagulov maintain the distance and get his strikes off. He can pepper the Armenian with his jab and kicks from range. He also has 90% takedown defence so Tsarukyan will have to work hard.
We can see Tsarukyan surprising Ismagulov on the feet by standing longer than expected and even landing a few shots from awkward angles which will open up a takedown.
The Russian needs to be immaculate whereas Tsarukyan needs to be persistent to grind out a decision at least.
Prediction: Tsarukyan via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
AMIR ALBAZI VS ALESSANDRO COSTA
Amir Albazi (15-1) is quietly creeping up the flyweight rankings after making it three UFC wins from three. He submitted Malcolm Gordon (2020) at bantamweight on his debut and outpointed Zhalgas Zhumagulov (2021) six months later. Now, he is coming off the biggest win of his career after submitting Francisco Figueiredo in the first round four months ago.
He welcomes Alessandro Costa (12-2) to the octagon who is coming in hot riding a seven-fight win streak. He cleaned up the Lux Fight League and made two defences of his flyweight title. That earnt him a shot on the Contender Series and he picked up a split decision over Andres Luna (2022) which almost earnt the call-up, and he made sure by going back to the Lux Fight League a couple months ago to spark out Carlos Gomez in the first round.
PREDICTION
Costa is the third opponent lined up for Albazi after Alex Perez pulled out followed by his replacement Brandon Royval who broke his wrist. The odds are stacked against Costa taking on a top flyweight on short notice but that makes him dangerous.
Costa is a good striker with good jiu-jitsu but Albazi is a level above and his wrestling can dictate where the fight goes. Coasta is dangerous but unless he catches the chin early, it is hard to see him combating the power and wrestling of Albazi.
Prediction: Albazi via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
ALEX CACERES VS JULIAN EROSA
Alex Caceres (19-13(1)) walks out for his 27th UFC fight and he was riding his best spell of form last year. He strung together five wins to boost his UFC record to 14-10(1) but that streak ran him into the path of Sodiq Yusuff. They fought a hard three rounds back in March but Yusuff took home the spoils with a unanimous decision.
Julian Erosa (28-9) makes his 12th UFC appearance and is in his third stint which has been his most successful. He is coming off three quality wins – a submission over Charles Jourdain (2021), a split decision over Steven Peterson (2022) and a unanimous one over Hakeem Dawodu back in September to go 5-1 in this stint boosting his UFC record to 6-5.
PREDICTION
These veterans have it all and hopefully we will see their striking, wrestling and jiu-jitsu here. It will be competitive wherever the fight goes.
Caceres will prefer the fight to stay on the feet where he has the movement and technique to pepper from range and build his volume. As he is not much of a knockout threat, expect Erosa to back his chin and walk Caceres down so he can offload in the pocket.
Erosa also has the grappling advantage and will try and create scrambles with his unorthodox attacks. Caceres has good takedown defence but if the fight gets sloppy, Erosa will thrive.
We can only see Caceres winning this via decision. So, he will need to keep this on the feet and maintain the distance for the majority of the three rounds. It is hard to see that happening, so we are backing Erosa who will force this into a scrap and if he can rock Caceres, he may even jump on a submission.
Prediction: Erosa via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Erosa via Submission
DREW DOBER VS BOBBY GREEN
Drew Dober (25-11(1)) has quickly picked off where he left off before getting submitted by Islam Makhachev (2021) and getting outpointed Brad Riddell (2021). Prior to those losses he knocked out Polo Reyes (2019), Nasrat Haqparast (2020) and Alexander Hernandez (2020). Now, he is coming off two more vintage knockouts over Terrance McKinney and Rafael Alves this year.
Bobby Green (29-13-1) also got fed to the current champ Makhachev. He was coming off two solid wins – a TKO over Al Iaquinta (2021) and unanimous decision over Haqparast (2022) and bravely stepped up on short notice to take on the current champ. Unfortunately for him, he inevitably got ragdolled and eventually TKO’d in the first round.
PREDICTION
What an incredible matchup this is between two striking veterans. They are exceptional boxers with Dober packing more power and Green boasting the better defence. He will also boast a slight height and reach advantage.
Green has the slicker technique and will be able to eat less shots and deliver more volume particularly from range. However, Dober can make up for the volume and defence with his power which is why he is the favourite.
So, we feel all the value is on a Green decision. Dober has a granite chin so the most likely outcomes are a Green decision or Dober knockout / decision. This is a tough one to call, and Green’s defence should prevent a knockout but Dober’s power could be enough to sway the judges.
Prediction: Dober via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Green via Decision
MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK VS CODY BRUNDAGE
Michal Oleksiejczuk (17-5(1)) makes the UFC walk for the third time this year. He headed into 2022 off the back of two good wins – a split decision over Modestas Bukauskas (2021) and a TKO over Shamil Gamzatov (2021). He then stepped up to light heavyweight to take on Dustin Jacoby who was just too good and too big earning the unanimous decision. Thankfully, he moved back down to middleweight in his last fight and made short work of Sam Alvey with a vintage knockout.
Now, he has a much sterner test in Cody Brundage (8-2). He had a very tough introduction to the UFC getting TKO’d by William Knight (2020) on the Contender Series and grinded out in a unanimous decision by Nick Maximov (2021) on his debut. However, he has gone on to rack up two first-round finishes to cement his place on the roster. He submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and knocked out Tresean Gore earlier this year.
PREDICTION
This was not the fight the matchmakers had in mind after Gregory Rodrigues and Albert Duraev both pulled out, but it is a fun one nonetheless. If an Oleksiejczuk fight stays on the feet, he can give anyone a run for their money with his weird power.
However, he struggles against wrestlers and Brundage is very strong and can chain takedowns together well. He also has a lot of power in his hands and Oleksiejczuk will hope he relies on that power to make this a boxing fight.
The more Brundage wrestles, the more chance he has in grinding out a win, but the longer this stays on the feet the more likely he will get put to sleep.
Prediction: Oleksiejczuk via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Brundage via Decision
JAKE MATTHEWS VS MATT SEMELSBERGER
Jake Matthews (18-5) is coming off one of the best performances of his career. He was coming off a humbling loss and submission to Sean Brady (2021) and then met the durable boxer Andre Fialho back in June. He looked exceptional beating him at his own game and walking away with a knockout in the second round. That took his UFC record to 11-5 and we feel he has a lot more to offer the welterweight division.
Matt Semelsberger (10-4) is coming off a humbling loss himself losing a unanimous decision to Alex Morono back in July. He was coming off two big wins in putting Martin Sano Jr (2021) to sleep in just 15 seconds and following that up with a unanimous decision over AJ Fletcher (2022). Now, he has an even tougher match-up to regain some form.
PREDICTION
This is odd matchmaking. Taking on Matthews coming off a loss is a tough ask especially as the Aussie is coming off a ‘Performance of the Night’. Semelsberger is a lethal striker and will have a two-inch height and reach advantage.
Considering how good Matthews looked on the feet against Fialho, he will need to be at his very best. If he does manage to find the chin, Matthews has the grappling in the locker where he has a clear advantage.
Unless, Semelsburger catches Matthews clean, it is hard to see him winning especially if Matthews decides to grapple.
Prediction: Matthews via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
DAVID DVORAK VS MANEL KAPE
David Dvorak’s (20-4) colossal run finally came to an end back in March. He was on a 16-fight win streak which included three UFC fights. He kicked off his campaign with two unanimous decisions over Bruno Gustavo da Silva (2020) and Jordan Espinosa (2020) following them up with a brilliant first-round submission over Juancamilo Ronderos (2021). However, he the got handed the rising contender Matheus Nicolau back in March and lost a unanimous decision.
Manel Kape (17-6) also has a decision loss to Nicolau (2021) on the record although one judge actually gave him the nod. That was his second fight in the UFC and his second loss. However, he has spectacularly bounced back displaying the form that got him to the UFC in knocking out Ode Osbourne (2021) and Zhalgas Zhumagulov (2021) in the first round.
PREDICTION
This is a very interesting matchup. Dvorak is extremely well-rounded and is a strong wrestler whereas Kape has great takedown defence and ferocious knockout power for a flyweight.
They match up very similarly physically but Kape is a lot more explosive and athletic. He will no doubt want to keep this on the feet and Dvorak will have the confidence of exchanging while backing his cardio to finish stronger in the third round.
However, Kape just needs to land a couple clean shots to force Dvorak to shoot in for a takedown. We back him to defend the majority of attempts which should allow him to keep the fight in his domain. He has the power to find the knockout but Dvorak has the durability to drag this to the bell but considering the odds, he is worth a punt especially if he can get the fight to the floor.
Prediction: Kape via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Dvorak via Decision
SERGEY MOROZOV VS JOURNEY NEWSON
The former M-1 bantamweight champion Sergey Morozov (18-5) has found life slightly tougher in the big leagues. After five straight wins including a title defence, he has gone 2-2 in the UFC. He got submitted on debut by Umar Nurmagomedov (2021), responded with a unanimous decision over Khalid Taha (2021), got submitted again by Douglas Silva de Andrade (2022) and now he is coming off his biggest win and decision over Raulian Paiva back in June.
Journey Newson (10-3(1)) is struggling to stay afloat in the bantamweight division. He lost a unanimous decision on debut against Ricardo Ramos (2019). He then knocked out Domingo Pilarte (2020) only for it to be overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to testing positive for marijuana. He then got obliterated by a Randy Costa (2020) head kick and he did not return until May this year. Thankfully, he finally entered the win column with a unanimous decision win over Fernie Garcia.
PREDICTION
Newson is explosive and has a lot of power in his hands, but this is another tough fight for him. Morozov is a strong wrestler and we expect him to control Newson against the fence and eventually get him down to the canvas.
Morozov is also a decent striker and throws a lot of volume. If he has the ego to trade with Newson for three rounds, we can see an upset and may be worth a small punt. However, Morozov has the nous to stick to his strengths.