UFC Vegas 64 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 214? Saturday 5th November, 2022 - 21:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 214? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 214? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night
What channel is UFC Fight Night 214 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 214? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
MARINA RODRIGUEZ VS AMANDA LEMOS
Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) headlines her third UFC card thanks to Movsar Evloev pulling out of his fight with Bryce Mitchell. She has won both her headlining fights via unanimous decision – Michelle Waterson (2021) and Mackenzie Dern (2021) and is coming off a hard-fought split decision over Xiaonan Yan back in March. That extended her streak to four after losing a split decision to the current champ Carla Esparza (2020) and if she wins here, we hope to hear expect a call-out for a rematch.
Amanda Lemos (12-2-1) is back on track after her first loss at flyweight. She bulldozed her way through five UFC opponents including knockouts over Livia Renata Ruiz (2021) and Conejo Ruiz (2021). She then fought to a split decision with Angela Hill (2021) before a number one contender fight with Jessica Andrade (2022). It was a strange performance as she was looking good but got caught in a standing arm triangle choke. However, she bounced back in style with a submission of her own over Michelle Waterson in July.
PREDICTION
This is a mouth-watering matchup between two of the best and most aggressive strikers in the division. Rodriguez throws heat and volume with all eight limbs and Lemos is a power southpaw with ferocious hands and kicks.
Rodriguez is racking up some high calibre bodies and fighting to a split decision against Esparza demonstrates her potential considering grappling is her perceived weakness. She also has come out victorious in two five-round battles which is crucial experience against Lemos.
Lemos is one of the most dangerous fighters in the division, but her explosiveness is not sustainable for 25 minutes. So, she would be wise to mix in some grappling by clinching up and going for the takedown.
She has the power to control the clinch however, Rodriguez has exceptional Muay Thai and will offload elbows and knees at any opportunity. Lemos is a knockout and submission threat whenever the distance closes so expect Rodriguez to constantly move, circle and strike from range.
We can see Rodriguez frustrating Lemos, forcing her to throw big shots draining the gas tank. We can also see Lemos catching Rodriguez and pouncing on a submission. Whatever happens, this is going to be a brilliant battle.
Prediction: Rodriguez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Lemos via Submission
NEIL MAGNY VS DANIEL RODRIGUEZ
Neil Magny (26-9) makes another quick turnaround making his third appearance of the year and his 28th for the UFC. He has always held hopes of a title shot during his tenure, but Shavkat Rakhmonov crushed those hopes back in June. He submitted him in the second round to break his momentum gained from decisions over Geoff Neal (2021) and Max Griffin (2022).
Daniel Rodriguez (17-2) continues to build his own momentum and quietly climb up the welterweight division. He has only lost once in the UFC which his only loss in his last 14. He picked up three solid wins before losing a unanimous decision to Nicolas Dalby (2020) but has responded with four quality dubs – Mike Perry (2021 – unanimous decision), Preston Parsons (2021 – TKO), Kevin Lee (2021 – unanimous decision) and he coming off a split decision with Li Jingliang back at the circus that was UFC 279.
PREDICTION
Rodriguez has the power and toughness to hang with any welterweight on the feet, but Magny is a tough test for him.
Magny has the longest reach in the division with 80 inches, six more than Rodriguez and he knows how to use it with a persistent jab. The veteran is also a very strong wrestler and we can see him attempting to close the distance or three rounds.
His cardio is off the charts and we can see him play it safe by avoiding Rodriguez’s hands and subduing him against the fence for as long as possible. It will be a smart ploy as Rodriguez has some of the highest output on the roster. If he can not tie him up, he can expect to eat a lot of shots.
The more space Rodriguez can create the more damage he will land. We can see him chopping the legs down and tagging the veteran, but we can also see Magny snatching the rounds with his wrestling.
This is one to stay clear of from a betting point of view. We feel Magny’s wrestling will be enough and we are not sure if Rodriguez has fully recovered from his elbow and wrist injuries, but this is tough to call.
Prediction: Magny via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CHASE SHERMAN VS JOSH PARISIAN
Chase Sherman’s (16-10) UFC record has sky-rocketed to 4-9 after knocking out Jared Vanderaa back in July. He was coming off a four-fight skid which is impressive in the heavyweight division. He lost unanimous decisions to Andrei Arlovski (2021) and Parker Porter (2021) before Jake Collier and Alexander Romanov submitted him this year. The UFC let him stay after doing them a favour in stepping up for the Romanov fight and he extended his shelf life with his recent win.
Josh Parisian (15-5) is next up for the Vanilla Gorilla. He has also struggled to impress in his young UFC career going 2-2. He lost a decision to Porter (2020), responded with a split decision over Roque Martinez (2021) but then got TKO’d by Don’Tale Mayes (2021). However, he is coming off the best win of his career back in June knocking out Alan Baudot at UFC Vegas 57.
PREDICTION
One win in five makes Sherman the favourite and there will not be a better time to bet against him. He is clearly a very dangerous striker, but he struggles against anyone who has technique and can grapple.
Parisian can grapple, but the trouble is, he has not proven anything in the UFC so far either. That said, he has the skills to beat Sherman. He can hang with him on the feet, but his easiest route to victory, will be taking him down.
Expect wild exchanges on the feet meaning a knockout either way is possible. If Parisian, is smart and mixes his attacks up, the win is there for him.
Prediction: Parisian via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Parisian to win
TAGIR ULANBEKOV VS NATE MANESS
Tagir Ulanbekov (13-2) made his first two UFC appearances in Abu Dhabi and earnt a unanimous decision over Bruno Gustavo da Silva (2020) and a tighter split one over Allan Nascimento (2021) to extend his win streak to five. Fans began to jump on the bandwagon, and he was a hefty favourite when he got paired with the veteran Tim Elliott back in March. However, he took a slap of reality losing a unanimous decision and now is desperate to make up for the loss.
Nate Maness (14-2) is also coming off a unanimous decision loss to halt his momentum. He was really gaining steam after outpointing Johnny Munoz Jr (2020) on debut, submitting Luke Sanders (2020) and knocking out Tony Gravely (2021). However, he was then paired with the unbeaten Umar Nurmagomedov inevitably losing a unanimous decision.
TAGIR ULANBEKOV VS NATE MANESS PREDICTION
We are not quite sure how the 5’10” Maness is going to make the 125 lb limit. He floats between featherweight and bantamweight and has even fought up at lightweight. Ulanbekov is also a big flyweight, but he will be giving up two inches in reach and three in height.
The Russian southpaw will not change his approach. The European sambo champion will try and take Maness down and keep him there. If this fight is indeed at flyweight and Maness’ weight cut goes smoothly, we can see the Russian struggling with the power and length.
If Maness is energized and is able to shrug off the first few takedown attempts, we can see Ulanbekov getting discouraged as Maness begins to chip away with his superior striking. He has great hands and is dangerous from range so whenever there is space, expect Maness to look a different class.
However, if Maness comes in depleted, Ulanbekov will be able to drag him down and pin him to the canvas for three rounds.
Prediction: Maness via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Maness to win
GRANT DAWSON VS MARK MADSEN
Desperate for a fight, Grant Dawson (18-1-1) steps up to fill in for Drakkar Klose who unfortunately did his ACL. He is unbeaten in his last 10 and after winning his first four UFC fights, he decided to move up to lightweight and has looked even better. He knocked out Leonardo Santos (2021) with a second to spare and then fought to a draw with Ricky Glenn (2021). He then met Jared Gordon back in April and pulled off a vintage submission – the 12th of his career.
Mark Madsen (12-0) is just happy to remain on the card. He makes his fifth UFC appearance and is still protecting his unbeaten record. He has had to work very hard to keep it battling close decisions with Austin Hubbard (2020), Clay Guida (2021) and Vinc Pichel back in April. Klose would have been a very tough fight and has a short time to prepare for Dawson who is likely to be his toughest test so far.
PREDICTION
This is a battle between two grapplers but two very contrasting grapplers. Madsen is an Olympic silver medallist in Greco-Roman wrestling and Dawson is a top tier MMA grappler who combines his wrestling and jiu-jitsu seamlessly.
Madsen will back his wrestling to control Dawson against the cage or on the floor nullifying his jiu-jitsu. However, he has to respect Dawson’s skills as he is the bigger man with dangerous jiu-jitsu and also has better cardio, so he will need to be focused for the full three rounds.
Dawson is the more complete fighter and if their grappling cancels each other out forcing a stand-up battle, you have to back him. Madsen is a lifelong competitor at the highest level, but he does not have the same experience in striking.
So, Madsen’s route to victory is wrestling Dawson for three rounds which is easier said than done. Madsen is the underdog, so a decision is the smart bet especially as Dawson has taken this on short notice.
However, we are leaning slightly towards Dawson who is bigger, younger and if this goes past the first round, he will finish stronger with the better gas tank.
Prediction: Dawson via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Madsen via Decision
DARRICK MINNER VS SHAYILAN NUERDANBIEKE
Darrick Minner (26-13) appears for the first time this year and is coming off two losses. The submission artist was coming off a first-round guillotine over TJ Laramie (2020) and unanimous decision over Charles Rosa (2021). The UFC clearly got bored of him out grappling people, so they paired him with Darren Elkins (2021) who TKO’d him in the second round and then got outpointed by Ryan Hall (2021) but did well not to get submitted himself considering Hall’s skills.
48 MMA fights at 28 years old is impressive, but it is only now we are starting to see Shayilan Nuerdanbieke’s (38-10) true potential. With 36 wins in the bank, he finally made his UFC debut, but lost a unanimous decision to Joshua Culibao (2021). The loss left many wondering how good he really was, but he has responded with two solid unanimous decisions over Sean Soriano (2021) and TJ Brown back in June.
PREDICTION
Yet another grappler for Minner. Nuerdanbieke Is a strong and explosive wrestler with 10 subs on the record which will provide another fascinating grappling contest.
There are a lot of ways to beat Minner but his jiu-jitsu is so slick, he only needs the slightest of openings to pounce on a choke. When he is the underdog, he is always worth a small punt on a submission unless he is fighting Ryan Hall.
However, Nuerdanbieke has the wrestling and power to subdue Minner for the first five minutes. Then, he will begin to fade which will make the takedowns easier to defend as the fight goes on allowing to him to show off his better striking skills and cruise to the bell.
Prediction: Nuerdanbieke via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Minner via Submission
MIRANDA MAVERICK VS SHANNA YOUNG
Miranda Maverick (10-4) is coming off a much-needed win seven months ago. After beating Liana Jojua (2020) and Gillian Robertson (2021) in her first two UFC fights, she stepped into flyweight prospect status. However, she went on to drop a dubious unanimous decision to Maycee Barber (2021) and then a more convincing one to Erin Blanchfield (2021). However, she bounced back with a brilliant performance, submitting Sabina Mazo in the second round.
Shanna Young (8-4) is also coming off a big win to prevent a three-fight skid. She started her UFC account with two very tough fights up at bantamweight. She lost a unanimous decision to Macy Chiasson (2020) and then got TKO’d by Stephanie Egger (2021). However, she stepped down to flyweight and looked much better knocking out Gina Mazany in the second round.
PREDICTION
This is their second meeting after their exhibition bout in 2019. Maverick took home the spoils with a first-round submission, but they have both evolved a lot since then.
They were hours away from a fight at UFC 278, but Young was hospitalized on weigh-in day due to a botched weight cut. So, it will be very interesting to see how she looks on the scales this week.
It will be important as she is naturally bigger and more powerful than Maverick who is four inches shorter and started her career at strawweight. Interestingly they have the same reach which will aid Maverick in the striking department.
She has the speed advantage and with her movement we expect her to out land Young. Young has a wrestling background however she has been taken down in all her UFC fights. So, expect Maverick to mix up her offence and time her level-changes to seal the odd takedown to bag the rounds.
If Young’s weight cut goes smoothly, she could easily surprise and considering the huge odds, she is worth a punt. However, on paper Maverick should have the edge wherever the fight goes.
Prediction: Maverick via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Young to win
POLYANA VIANA VS JINH YU FREY LOWDOWN
Like many strawweights, Polyana Viana (12-5) is talented but very inconsistent. Her three UFC wins have all been dominant first-round submissions including Emily Whitmire (2020) and Mallory Martin (2021). However, they came after losing three on the bounce (JJ Aldrich, Hannah Cifers and Veronica Macedo) and she is coming off another unanimous decision loss to Tabatha Ricci back in May.
Jinh Yu Frey (11-7) is just as difficult to predict. She is 2-3 in the UFC and responded well to getting submitted by Kay Hansen (2020) and Loma Lookboonmee (2020) by outpointing Gloria de Paula (2021) and Ashley Yoder (2021). However, she is coming off another loss and split decision to Vanessa Demopoulos back in June.
POLYANA VIANA VS JINH YU FREY PREDICTION
It seems if Polyana Viana does not find a submission in the first round, she is losing a decision and that could easily happen here. Frey is a decent wrestler, but Viana is very dangerous off her back, so Viana can snatch an arm and quick win or it could be a long night for her.
A grappling contest will be fascinating, but so will the stand-up. Viana packs more power and will boast a two-inch reach and height advantage, but Frey is a very tricky southpaw. She has the edge when it comes to defence and has a dangerous left hand.
A first-round submission for Viana or Frey decision look like obvious plays, but we feel Viana decision is also likely considering her size and power advantage. Also, the fact that Viana is an armbar specialist and Frey’s submission loss was via armbar, that is a tempting play too.
Prediction: Viana via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Frey via Decision
JOHNNY MUNOZ JR VS LIUDVIK SHOLINIAN LOWDOWN
Johnny Munoz Jr (11-2) waltzed into the UFC a couple years ago sitting on an impressive 10-0 record. He has since gone 1-2 struggling with the step-up in competition. He had a tough debut in the form of Nate Maness (2020) who handed out the first defeat of his career via unanimous decision. He bounced back with a submission over Jamey Simmons (2021) but he is coming off a huge setback and first-round knockout at the hands of Tony Gravely back in June.
Liudvik Sholinian (9-2-1) is also coming off a loss which is his only appearance in three years. He featured on The Ultimate Fighter earning a unanimous decision over Mitch Rapaso but then lost one to the eventual winner Ricky Turcios. For his debut, he stepped up on short notice to fight Jack Shore who was unbeaten at the time and did well to take him to a unanimous decision considering.
JOHNNY MUNOZ JR VS LIUDVIK SHOLINIAN PREDICTION
Munoz has not lived up to his potential, but he still has time. He is very slick on the mat as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and he always hunts the finish. Sholinian is a very strong wrestler, but his inactivity is a real worry. He was scheduled to fight Nathaniel Wood this year, but he had to pull out with the turmoil occurring in his native Ukraine, so it has been a difficult period for him.
We can see him starting strong and landing a couple takedowns, but on paper Munoz should take this. He is a better striker and his jiu-jitsu may come in to play late in the fight.
Prediction: Munoz via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Munoz via Submission
TAMIRES VIDAL VS RAMONA PASQUAL
Tamires Vidal (6-1) flies over to the APEX to make her UFC debut. She got submitted by Karol Rosa (2019) for the MMA Brutus promotion but has gone on to pick up five wins for various other promotions. She is coming off one of her most impressive wins back in March, catching Queila Pereira Americo Braga in a heel hook, but has still has a lot to prove.
Ramona Pasqual (6-4) makes her third UFC appearance, but she also has everything to prove. She arrived to the octagon on a four-fight win streak including three finishes but has failed both UFC tests so far. She lost a unanimous decision to the smaller Josiane Nunes in February and another to Joselyne Edwards in June.
PREDICTION
We can almost discard their records are there is a seismic skill gap between regional competition and the UFC. We can look at how their win columns however, and it is exciting to see they can both finish a fight.
Vidal is a solid grappler and brown belt in jiu-jitsu, so she will relish a scrap on the canvas. Pasqual has won four of her six wins via knockout. She packs a lot pf power and will be moving down a division for this one.
She will not be afraid to tie up with Vidal as she has a strong clinch and will fire knees at will. However, she will have to be careful about getting taken down as she will be entering Vidal’s domain.
Pasqual’s power will aid her in keeping the fight on the feet, but the clinch will not be worth the risk as she is a better striker. So, this could depend on her game plan. If she maintains the distance for the majority of the fight, she can convince the judges with her striking.
Losing her last two fights has made her the underdog, but there is no guarantee Vidal would have fared better against Nunes and Edwards. If Pasqual has a smooth weight cut, she is a great pick as her size and power could nullify the skills of Vidal.
A Pasqual decision or Vidal submission are your best bets.