UFC 281 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 281? Sunday 13th November, 2022 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 281? Madison Square Garden, New York, (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 281? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 281
What channel is UFC 281 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC 281? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ISRAEL ADESANYA VS ALEX PEREIRA
Israel Adesanya (23-1) continues to pick off top contender after top contender and now heads to New York for the second time in his fighting career. He makes the fifth defence of his middleweight title and has been flawless in the division. His sole loss came when he jumped up to light heavyweight to challenge Jan Blachowicz (2021) for his strap where he got out grappled and out muscled but quickly resumed business at 185 lbs racking up classy unanimous decisions over Marvin Vettori (2021), Robert Whittaker (2022) and Jared Cannonier back in July.
Alex Pereira (6-1) is the only fighter in the top six that Adesanya has not beaten. He is raw in MMA with only three UFC bouts in the bank however, what makes this fight so compelling is that he is an elite kickboxer with two wins over Adesanya. The first was a very tight unanimous decision back in 2016 and the following year he sparked him clean with a beautiful left hook which is a clip doing the rounds more than ever. He still has a lot to prove in MMA but his last fight bagged his title shot with another majestic knockout, this time over Sean Strickland back in July.
PREDICTION
This is exactly what Adesanya and the middleweight division needs – a new rivalry. You know he will still be bitter after Pereira’s reaction to knocking him out in 2017. Now, they meet in MMA where you can grapple, there is more space and the gloves are smaller.
If there is any grappling, it will be Adesanya throwing a curve ball, but he has the ego and skill to seek revenge on the feet. The odds are stacked in his favour due to his experience in the cage with eight UFC title fights in the bank.
That said, this is the test to see if Adesanya is the best striker in the UFC. They match up very evenly in physique standing at 6’4” with the champ boasting just an inch in arm reach and half an inch in leg reach. Where Pereira has the advantage, is power. He is devastating with all eight limbs, in particular is menacingly calculated left hook, straight right and jumping knee. He can turn the lights off from a distance.
Even Adesanya’s chin will not be able to eat a clean shot as we have seen. However, it is Adesanya’s defence that swing this in his favour for us. His reactions, head movement and shoulder rolls have enabled him to make fools of the best middleweights in the division.
Adesanya knows he cannot make a single mistake, but he has the patience and fight IQ to avoid the power and set his own traps. We can see him starting slowly and Pereira winning the first round but that is what Adesanya needs to download the data to control the range.
He will look to slip 1-2’s and the left hook while eating up Pereira’s legs. Expect the champ to dig into the Brazilian’s thighs and calves to slow him down and then begin to counter with his hands and head kicks.
This will be an incredibly cerebral fight from both fighters with Adesanya acting as the matador and Pereira the bull trying to close the distance, but with a series of feints and traps in between the feisty exchanges.
A Pereira knockout is likely whoever he fights, but we feel Adesanya’s octagon experience, defence and volume will make the difference. Either way, let’s sit back and enjoy the highest level of striking.
Prediction: Adesanya via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
CARLA ESPARZA VS WEILI ZHANG
Not many people predicted that Carla Esparza (19-6) would rise through to sit back at the top of the littered strawweight division. She thoroughly deserved her title shot after earning classic narrow decisions over Virna Jandiroba (2019), Alexa Grasso (2020), Michelle Waterson (2020) and Marina Rodriguez (2020) before TKOing Xiaonan Yan. That cemented her title shot and rematch with Rose Namajunas back in May. She beat her on the Ultimate Fighter seven years ago, but this fight did not live up to any expectation. It was uneventful with both ladies afraid to pull the trigger, but someone had to win it with Esparza getting the spit decision.
Weili Zhang’s (22-3) fights with Namajunas were far from uneventful. The first fight was for Zhang’s title in April last year and she ate a picture-perfect head kick in the first round to lose her crown and snap her 21-fight win streak. They met six months later and Zhang gave a much better account of herself but failed to convince two judges falling short in an exciting split decision. However, she bounced back spectacularly in another rematch. After putting on the best fight in strawweight history with Joanna Jedrzejczyk (2020) winning a split decision that could have gone either way, she left zero doubt this time with a majestic spinning backfist knockout.
PREDICTION
We all know what to expect from Esparza and that will be to get Zhang to the deck and keep her there. Zhang is clearly a different class on the feet with technique to match her power.
Esparza needs to be aggressive even if that means walking into fire. If she is passive again, the damage and output of Zhang in between takedown attempts will make it an easy decision for the judges. If Esparza can clamp her down and assume control time in at least two rounds, she can snatch another decision to keep her belt.
However, Zhang is a very strong grappler. She is arguably the most powerful strawweight on the roster which will allow her to stuff the majority of takedowns and create enough space to unleash her arsenal on the feet.
Esparza is such a persistent and high-level wrestler that we can see her having success with the odd takedown. However, unlike Namajunas, while they are on the feet, Zhang will be proactive and find a home for her hands. She also has the power to scramble and post back up.
It is hard to see Esparza pinning Zhang down long enough to sway the judges and there is such a gap when it comes to speed and striking that Zhang could even find the knockout.
Prediction: Zhang via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Zhang via KO/TKO
DUSTIN POIRIER VS MICHAEL CHANDLER
With 27 UFC fights under the belt fighting the cream of the crop, Dustin Poirier (28-7(1)) deserves the best fights available. His best run included wins over Jim Miller (2017), Anthony Pettis (2017), Justin Gaethje (2018), Eddie Alvarez (2018) and Max Holloway (2019) which earnt him an interim title. He inevitably got submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov (2019) failing to unify the lightweight strap. However, he bounced back with those TKO’s over Conor McGregor last year to earn another shot at gold. Unfortunately, it was déjà vu as he got submitted by Charles Oliveira in the third round again.
Michael Chandler (23-7) is only four-fights deep into his UFC career but also only deals in mouth-watering matchups. The Bellator legend’s debut was against Dan Hooker (2021) and it could not have gone better cleaning his clock in the first round. That earnt him a title shot against Oliveira (2021) and looked great until the Brazilian connected with beautifully clean strikes to put him away. Chandler then went to war with Gaethje (2021) losing a unanimous decision but did earn the accolade of ‘Fight of the Year’. He responded in the only way he knows how by front kicking Tony Ferguson’s head off back in May to go 2-2 in the UFC.
PREDICTION
All Chandler’s UFC fights have been unforgettable performances. He is an elite wrestler, but he comes to take a head or go out on his shield. Poirier is cut from the same cloth and is battle-tested so we are in for a treat.
This will be a stand-up war with a bit of wrestling thrown in and we may even see the odd submission attempt. The majority of this battle will be a kickboxing one however.
Poirier will stand in front of Chandler bringing a relentless volume of powerful hooks, straights down the pipe and chopping calf kicks whereas Chandler will try and remain illusive while corked and ready to explode with a bomb.
Expect level-changes from Chandler. When he shoots in, that is when we may see a guillotine or D’arce attempt from Poirier. Whoever enforces their style will come out on top. If Poirier ends up trading Hollywood one-shots, Chandler will be the favourite. If Chandler tries to out volume and out brawl Poirier, he will eventually wilt.
Chandler is a goober and there is more chance of him throwing the game plan out the window for the Madison Square Garden fans. We can see him landing something clean and if it is not enough to put Poirier away, it could be enough to convince the judges if the fight is close. He could also steal a couple rounds with his wrestling which makes him the value pick as the underdog.
That said, we are backing Poirier who over three rounds will bring a ferocious pace and break Chandler down with his leg kicks and combinations.
Prediction: Poirier via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Chandler via Decision
FRANKIE EDGAR VS CHRIS GUTIERREZ
Father time has finally caught up with the former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar (24-10-1). He has lost five of his last seven with his chin finally crumbling. He got uppercutted into the audience by Brian Ortega (2018), sparked out by the Korea Zombie (2019) and is coming off two more devastating knockouts – a flying knee from Cory Sandhagen (2021) and a front kick from Marlon Vera (2021). He did pick up a couple vintage decision wins in between those losses against Cub Swanson (2016) and Pedro Munhoz (2020) but he needs a break from the upper echelon.
Chris Gutierrez (18-4-2) is not in the top bracket yet but he is unbeaten in his last seven and salivating at the prospect of adding Edgar’s name to the record. The only blip in those fights was a draw against Cody Durden (2020) but he has gone on to earn a unanimous decision over Andre Ewell (2021), a tighter split decision over Felipe Colares (2021) and a beautiful spinning back elbow knockout over Danaa Batgerel.
PREDICTION
Gutierrez has the hot ticket. Everyone wants the opportunity to raise their stock by taking on a legend who is on a serious decline. Although this should be Edgar’s swansong, he is still an exceptional fighter. Few men have wins over the featherweights and bantamweights he has lost to and his experience and skill set still has to be respected.
The worry for him is his chin which has finally deteriorated. Gutierrez is also a power striker with nearly half od his wins coming via knockout, but the majority of his success comes in his leg kicks. They are ferocious and he only needs to land a couple to disable the movement.
Kicking Edgar’s legs is always risk. His muscle memory is fixed to catch kicks and turn them into takedowns. His relentless chain wrestling will also be his clear strategy considering their skill sets. His cardio is off the charts and it is not worth risking getting sparked out again on his last showing.
That said, Gutierrez knows exactly what to expect from the legend. He will be drilling his takedown defence and tuning his leg kicks and elbows as well has front kicks and uppercuts down the middle which has been very successful against Edgar recently.
We are backing Gutierrez’s power with a clear blueprint in the back pocket, but there is some value on an Edgar decision considering the odds.
Prediction: Gutierrez via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Edgar via Decision
DAN HOOKER VS CLAUDIO PUELLES
As badass as the ‘any time anywhere’ attitude is, it comes at a cost as Dan Hooker (21-12) is 1-4 in his last five. He fell short in his five-round war with Dustin Poirier (2020) and then got blitzed by the debutant Michael Chandler (2021) in the first round. He then earnt a unanimous decision over Nasrat Haqparast (2021) after some less-than-ideal preparations and is coming off a submission loss to the current champ Islam Makhachev (2021) and a TKO to Arnold Allen back in March after dropping down to featherweight.
Claudio Puelles (12-2) is his next assignment and although he does not have the same name power, he is on an impressive five-fight win streak. He submitted Felipe Silva (2018) with a kneebar, earnt unanimous decisions over Marcos Mariano (2019) and Jordan Leavitt (2021) and is now coming off two more kneebar’s over Chris Gruetzemacher (2021) and Clay Guida back in April.
PREDICTION
The UFC are testing Hooker’s submission defence again. He has been subbed three times and has been handed an up-and-coming submission wizard. This is a colossal opportunity for Puelles. He is fighting on a pay-per-view card at Madison Square Garden with a clear route to victory against a big name.
Hooker has the experience, striking, three-inch reach and two-inch height advantage. However, Puelles has a Muay Thai background and will be able to hang on the feet hoping to set up a submission. We also do not know how much the wars and cut down to 145 lbs in his last has affected him.
Hooker will be confident wherever the fight goes even if he lands on his back which could be his undoing. Puelles needs one opening to grab a leg and take Hooker’s knee back to Peru. The longer Hooker can keep the fight on the feet, the more damage he will land and could even make it look easy.
A lot of factors point to a Puelles submission which will be a great punt for a bet as he is the underdog. However, if Hooker respects his skill set and keeps the fight on the feet, his durability and skill will shine through, but a Puelles submission is the play.
Prediction: Hooker via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Puelles via Submission
BRAD RIDDELL VS RENATO MOICANO
Brad Riddell (10-3) has only had tough fights in the octagon so far and was steaming his way up the rankings after his first four. He earnt decisions over Jamie Mullarkey (2019), Magomed Mustafaev (2020), Alex da Silva Coelho (2020) and Drew Dober (2021). He then crossed paths with fellow striking ace Rafael Fiziev (2021) who snapped the seven-fight win streak in spectacular fashion with a spinning wheel kick in the third round. Riddell was then handed another killer in the shape of the long framed Jalin Turner (2022) who rocked him early and pounded on a guillotine.
Renato Moicano (16-5-1) is also coming off a dominant loss but took five rounds of punishment. He deserves a lot of credit for taking the fight in the first place stepping up on short notice to take on Rafael dos Anjos. He somehow made it to the bell and now hopes to pick up that form leading into the bout where he submitted Jai Herbert (2021) and Alexander Hernandez (2022).
PREDICTION
This fight is too good to be on the prelims. The stand-up battle will be a spectacle of aggressive and technical Muay Thai. Moicano is four inches taller but will only boast an inch in reach.
Riddell has lost both of his recent fights on the feet and he absorbs way more damage than he should, but we still back him to win the exchanges on the feet. Where Moicano has a clear advantage is in the grappling realm.
Riddell is a good wrestler with excellent takedown defence, but Moicano is tricky. He is not a traditional wrestler and creates scrambles where he pounces on the back at any opportunity. The more he grapples, the more chance he has in subduing the Kiwi and even finding a submission.
The more space there is, the more you have to favour Riddell who can sway the judges with his power and strikes landed. However, if the Brazilian can close Riddell off at the fence, clinch up and mix in his striking, he can shut the Kiwi down and create an opportunity to hop on the back.
We are backing Moicano to deliver his full arsenal to earn the win, but there is value on Riddell.
Prediction: Moicano via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Riddell via Decision
DOMINICK REYES VS RYAN SPANN
When Dominick Reyes (12-3) met Jon Jones (2020), he was sitting on a 12-0 record having just knocked out the former middleweight champ Chris Weidman (2021). He had come out of nowhere really but took the light heavyweight ‘GOAT’ five rounds with many believing he had done enough to dethrone the king. He lost the decision and has not recovered since. He went on fight Jan Blachowicz (2020) for the vacant title but got knocked out in the second round and then seven months later he ate a ferocious spinning back elbow from the current champion Jiri Prochazka (2021) to drop three in a row.
He has another tough fight, but at least it is not another title challenger. Ryan Spann (20-7) won his first four UFC fights to extend his win streak to eight and nearly made it nine when he rocked Johnny Walker (2020) only for the Brazilian to comeback and dispatch him with nasty elbows. The former LFA light heavyweight champion responded with a knockout over Misha Cirkunov (2021) but then got submitted by Anthony Smith (2021). Now, he is coming off a vintage submission of his own against Ion Cutelaba back in May.
PREDICTION
It is good to see Reyes take some time off after those brutal knockouts. He also has a much kinder match-up here although Spann possesses a knockout and submission threat which Reyes has to respect.
Spann’s guillotine when shooting in will be particular threat. Reyes is a strong wrestler, but it will be a risk to leave his head open when shooting in so we expect him to stick to his strengths and keep this on the feet.
It is easy to forget that he hits like a truck and is a better athlete. He will look to fire kicks to the lead left leg of Spann from his southpaw stance and then target the body. Spann will back himself in the exchanges, but we fully expect him to shoot in as soon as he absorbs a left kick or hand.
If he can drag Reyes to the mat or create a scramble, we can see a submission. However, we feel Reyes’ takedown defence and striking will put him back in the win column.
Prediction: Reyes via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Spann via Submission
MOLLY MCCANN VS ERIN BLANCHFIELD
It is fair to say, Molly McCann (13-4) is in the form of her life and she is milking every second. When she lost two unanimous decisions in a row, people were questioning her potential in the UFC. However, since her loss to Lara Procopio (2021), she has gone on to outpoint Ji Yeon Kim (2021) and reel off two of the most impressive knockouts in flyweight history. She landed two sensational spinning back elbows on Luana Carolina in March and Hannah Goldy in July.
Erin Blanchfield (9-1) has gone about business in a quieter fashion, but she is compiling a very impressive win streak. She has won her first three UFC bouts to extend her streak to six. She earnt unanimous decisions over Sarah Alpar (2021), Miranda Maverick (2021) and is coming off a submission over JJ Aldrich in June.
PREDICTION
Spinning back elbow defence must have made its way onto Blanchfield’s training regimen. She will have also tuned up her bread and butter which is her grappling especially as the only fighters McCann has lost to in the UFC are superior grapplers.
If the fight hits the deck, Blanchfield’s jiu-jitsu will shine which is why the odds are stacked in her favour. However, we feel the wrestling exchanges will be more competitive.
McCann is strong and her wrestling continues to improve. If she fends off the first few takedown attempts, Blanchfield will get discouraged. The scouser’s confidence will then begin to surge and her hands will fly.
However, we feel Blanchfields’s wrestling will be enough to control McCann en route to a decision and a submission is not out of the question at all. Considering the odds, McCann is worth a punt, but we are backing Blanchfield.
Prediction: Blanchfield via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: McCann to win
MATT FREVOLA VS OTTMAN AZAITAR
Matt Frevola (9-3-1) returns for a rescheduling and is coming off one of his best performances. He knocked Genaro Valdez down four times in his ruthless first-round knockout. That came with a lot of relief as he was coming off two humbling losses. He got out grappled by Arman Tsarukyan (2021) and then starched by Terrance McKinney (2021) but to be fair, they have the potential to reach the top of the division.
UFC 257 in January 2021 was when Ottman Azaitar (13-0) was originally booked to fight Frevola. It was on Fight Island, Abu Dhabi where Azaitar broke the COVID-19 protocols and seemingly got cut from the UFC altogether. Thankfully he is finally back and ready to pick up where he left off and that is a five-fight knockout streak including two UFC fights against Teemu Packalen (2019) and Khama Worthy (2020).
PREDICTION
‘The Steamrolla’ vs ‘The Bulldozer’ is fitting. Azaitar was blitzing everyone but that was nearly two years ago. Frevola has fought three times since Azaitar’s last fight and although he has lost twice, he has picked up valuable experience and he has the confidence from his recent knockout.
That said, two of his losses are via knockout and even if Azaitar is rusty, he possesses the power to shut the lights out with one clip. If Frevola decides to stand and trade, he is getting put to sleep. However, if he sticks to his strengths and wrestles, he can grind out a decision.
The Morrocan’s takedown defence is 100% but it has not been tested in the UFC and a Frevloa decision as the underdog is the smart pick. However, he has less room for error and we are backing the ferocious Muay Thai of Azaitar to land the killer blow.
Prediction: Azaitar via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Frevola via Decision
ANDRE PETROSKI VS WELLINGTON TURMAN
Andre Petroski (8-1) got his UFC career off to a bang. Coming off The Ultimate Fighter, he TKO’d Micheal Gilmore (2021) and submitted Yaozong Hu (2021). However, he still had everything to prove as they were two off the easiest match ups in the division. He then met Nick Maximov back in May which was a significant step-up in competition but credit to him, he rose to the occasion and submitted the grappler.
Now, he takes on another talented grappler in Wellington Turman (18-5). The Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt was a loss away from being cut in the UFC. He got starched by Andrew Sanchez (2020) not known for his striking and then Bruno Silva (2021) who certainly is. He was then paired with Sam Alvey (2021) who has forgotten how to win and earnt a much-needed split decision to halt the skid. He was then paired with fellow submission wizard Misha Cirkunov he dropped down a division and Turman welcomed him with an armbar to seal an impressive win.
PREDICTION
They are both superb all-round grapplers, but the main question here is whether Petroski’s wrestling and Turman’s jiu-jitsu will cancel each other out. Petroski has the wrestling to control Turman and out muscle him on the deck, but as we saw in the Cirkunov fight, you cannot make any mistake and leave a neck or limb out there.
So, it will be interesting to see if Petroski backs his own jiu-jitsu to fend off the attacks and look for a finish himself or we see most of this fight contested on the feet.
Petroski will look super dangerous in the first round and if this goes into the second and beyond, his suspect gas tank will be tested.
Turman is the underdog so holds all of the value and we can envision a submission or decision as Petroski gasses. However, we can also see Petroski blow the Brazilian out of the water in the first round.