UFC 280 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC 280? Saturday 22nd October, 2022 - 17:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 280? Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi (UAE)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 280? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 280
What channel is UFC 280 on? BT Sport 3 (prelims)
Where can I stream UFC 280? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS ISLAM MAKHACHEV
It is fair to say the unofficial champ Charles Oliveira (33-8(1)) has surged into an electrifying prime where he has put everything together without losing any of his entertainment factor. He is on one the most incredible win streaks we have seen in the octagon riding 11 which include seven submissions and three knockouts. He is coming off a submission over Kevin Lee (2019), unanimous decision over Tony Ferguson (2020), TKO over Michael Chandler (2021) and submissions over Dustin Poirier (2021) and Justin Gaethje (2022). As Oliveira missed weight for the Gaethje fight by half a pound, he was not eligible to win the title, but he is the champ in everyone’s eyes.
Somehow, opponents do not get any easier as Islam Makhachev (22-1) rises as the next contender. He has looked simply immaculate since his sole knockout loss to Adriano Martins (2015). Although is dented the record, it was clearly a valuable learning curve as he has strung 10 wins together since sharpening up his striking in the process. He has also taken a leaf out of Oliveira’s book recently adding finishes. He is coming off submissions over Drew Dober (2021), Thiago Moises (2021) and Dan Hooker (2021) and most recently a TKO over Bobby Green back in February.
PREDICTION
This best counters to wrestling is jiu-jitsu and knockouts ability which Oliveira has in abundance. He is the submission record holder the UFC and he has refined his boxing to the point he is confident in exchanging with the likes of Chandler, Poirier and Gaethje.
We all know about Makhachev’s wrestling but his striking is very underrated and he will back himself to trade with Oliveira which will make it even easier to take him down. Oliveira gives little resistance to the takedown as he is so confident of finding a submission off his back.
However, another part of Makhachev’s game that is overlooked is his jiu-jitsu. He submitted black belt Thiago Moises with relative ease although we have never seen his submission defence which he will have been drilling relentlessly in training camp.
The stand-up contest will be competitive. Oliveira will laser his punches down the pipe with combinations and Oliveira will throw kicks from his southpaw stance. When the fight goes to the floor it will be just as competitive.
Oliveira is the favourite mainly because people feel he is the better striker and will be a submission threat on the ground. However, we do not think it is as simple as that. Makhachev has the wrestling and top control to pin Oliveira and nullify the submission threat. The champ has looked great on the feet recently, but he has been rocked and he has to respect the Russian’s striking.
It is very hard to back against Oliveira finding another finish however, we feel Makhachev has the technique and power to shut him down for five rounds. If Oliveira gases, he may even get submitted.
Prediction: Makhachev via Decision
Value Bet: Makhachev via Submission
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ALJAMAIN STERLING VS TJ DILLASHAW
Aljamain Sterling (21-3) has emerged as the rightful bantamweight champion after two meetings with Petr Yan. It is hard to forget how he originally claimed the belt after putting some milk into a clearly illegal knee resulting in a disqualification. He then took a year out to recover from injuries letting Yan stew on his actions but when they finally got a second date, Sterling showed off his elite-level grappling to subdue Yan enough to keep his gold. That win has capped an impressive seven-fight win streak which will be tough to extend in this stacked division.
The former champion TJ Dillashaw (17-4) has recovered from knee surgery and is ready for his eighth UFC title fight. That injury occurred while fending off a submission attempt from Cory Sandhagen back in July last year. It happened early in the five round battle and considering he had not fought since his loss to Henry Cejudo in January 2019, to earn a split decision over one of the best fighters in the division was an incredible feat. He now faces another huge task and opportunity to cement his legacy as one of the best 135ers of all time.
PREDICTION
Sterling’s blueprint to beating Dillashaw has to be similar to Yan’s. He can strike, but like Yan, Dillashaw is on another level so expect him to lace up his wrestling boots again and try and cling on to the back for dear life.
You would have to fancy a prime Dillashaw to defend the takedowns and proceed to light Sterling up on the feet. However, there are a lot of miles on the clock now, he is recovering from a badly injured knee which is crucial to his movement and he has only fought once in nearly four years. Sterling however, is in his prime and full of confidence.
The champ has five-round experience with an elite striker and he will back himself to hang with Dillashaw on the feet and be able to control him on the canvas. So, expect him to patiently circle waiting to pounce on a single leg takedown.
However, Dillashaw is also an exceptional wrestler and even with an unhealthy knee and a bit of rust, we expect him to defend the majority of takedown attempts. That said, Sterling’s control is so strong, he only needs one takedown to steal the round.
If Sterling gains Dillashaw’s respect on the feet, particularly with his kicks, the takedown will be there. On the flip side, if Dillashaw successfully defends the first few takedowns, Sterling’s confidence will drop and he may expend more energy shooting in while Dillashaw begins to pick him apart.
Dillashaw has not had to wrestle for five rounds and Sterling’s jiu-jitsu is also top tier. That said, Dillashaw’s takedown defence is excellent and he has never been submitted. We feel Dillashaw will get taken down eventually, but he will do enough damage on the feet to sway the judges and do not be surprised if Duane Ludwig has conjured a plan to set up a knockout.
Prediction: Dillashaw via Decision
Value Bet: Dillashaw via KO/TKO
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PETR YAN VS SEAN O’MALLEY
Petr Yan (16-3) is not too happy about supporting the bantamweight title fight in the co-main event, but he has a juicy match-up. He is coming off his only real loss in the UFC, getting out grappled and subdued long enough to fall short in a split decision to Aljamain Sterling back in April. His first UFC loss was a disqualification last year, mindlessly landing an illegal knee in a fight he was beginning to run away with. Those losses sandwiched a classy and super impressive unanimous decision win over Cory Sandhagen eight months later.
The other half of Sean Shelby’s wacky matchmaking is Sean O’Malley (15-1(1)). Some feel it is too soon for the ‘Suga Show’, but both men want it and fans cannot wait. Besides his TKO loss to Marlon Vera (2020), he has looked unstoppable in the UFC. After that loss, he knocked out Thomas Almeida (2021), Kris Moutinho (2021) and Raulian Paiva (2021) to seal his seventh UFC dub. He then met Pedro Munhoz back in July, but the exciting scrap was cut short due to an eye poke on Munhoz.
PREDICTION
O’Malley has landed on his feet after that ‘no contest’ getting paired with the number one ranked bantamweight. Kudos to Yan for accepting the fight, but it makes sense to fight O’Malley now as he is only getting better.
The guaranteed winner here will be the fans as we will witness the highest level of striking. The main differences on paper is Yan’s experience, in particular his five-round experience and O’Malley’s range advantage which will be five inches in reach and four in height.
Yan is going to try and close the distance and turn this into a Muay Thai fight unleashing damage in the pocket and clinching up against the fence and piercing O’Malley with knees and elbows. O’Malley will try and maintain the distance and use his footwork to throw powerful combinations while circling. Yan will try and cut him off and try and chop down his leg, disabling his movement. O’Malley has been susceptible to leg kicks absorbing way more than he needs to and Yan has the power to cripple them.
O’Malley needs to start quickly before Yan gets a read on him especially as O’Malley has the output to keep up a fierce pace for 15 minutes. Nobody has out struck Yan so far and we do not know how high O’Malley’s ceiling is.
This is tough to call but we feel Yan’s experience will allow him to mix up his attacks and adapt by targeting the leg and clinching up. His performances against the legend Jose Aldo and the lanky Sandhagen make him a heavy favourite so O’Malley is the play. He has the accuracy, fight IQ and power to cause the upset.
Prediction: Yan via Decision
Value Bet: O’Malley to win
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BENEIL DARIUSH VS MATEUSZ GAMROT
It has been too long since we last saw Beneil Dariush (21-4-1). He is flourishing in his prime and coming off a unanimous decision over Tony Ferguson to extend his super impressive win streak to seven. After that win in May last year, he was lined up to fight the title challenger headlining this card, Islam Makhachev back in February this year. Unfortunately, an ankle injury forced him out leaving him wondering ‘what could have been’. Now, he has another very tough match-up to keep his title hopes alive.
Mateusz Gamrot (21-1(1)) only has one loss of the record and that came on his UFC debut to the incredibly tough and underrated Guram Kutateladze (2020). It was a razor thin decision, but he has kicked on to prove the hype was real by knocking out Scott Holtzman (2021), submitting Jeremy Stephens (2021), TKOing Carlos Diego Ferreira (2021) and earning a unanimous decision over Arman Tsarukyan back in June.
PREDICTION
Accepting a fight with Gamrot after being close to a title shot takes balls. Gamrot has only just broken into the top 10 but has one of the strongest skill sets in the division. Coming out on top in a wrestling battle with Tsarukyan proves he is right at the top of the food chain when it comes to grappling.
Dariush will not be deterred about getting taken down with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in the pocket. He has also notched up a couple impressive knockouts recently, so he will not mind where the fight goes, but this is a very tough one for him.
Dariush needs to call upon all of his experience to dictate the tempo. If he lets Gamrot settle early, he will set a pace that will be too hard to keep up with. Expect the Pole to keep up a constant output mixing in striking with takedown seamlessly.
Dariush will be confident wherever the fight goes, but it is hard to see him have an answer for Gamrot’s wrestling and volume of striking. We feel Dariush will need a knockout or rock Gamrot to pounce on a submission to win this.
Prediction: Gamrot via Decision
Value Bet: Dariush to win
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KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN VS MANON FIOROT
The gatekeeper to Valentina Shevchenko’s throne, Katlyn Chookagian (18-4) heads to Abu Dhabi for her 16th UFC fight. She is simply not good enough to win the flyweight title, but she will not go away. In 2020, she got dominated and TKO’d in her title fight with the Queen and also got folded by former strawweight champion Jessica Andrade. However, there is no quit in her and she has gone on to earn vintage classy decisions over Cynthia Calvillo (2020), Viviane Araujo (2021), Jennifer Maia (2022) and Amanda Ribas (2022).
Manon Fiorot (9-1) is the next contender standing at the gate. She is only 10 fights deep into her MMA career, but she has looked completely at home in the UFC. She started her account with a couple routine knockouts over Victoria Leonardo (2021) and Tabatha Ricci (2021). She then got handed tougher tests in the form of Mayra Bueno Silva (2021) and Maia (2022) rising to the challenge with impressive unanimous decisions.
PREDICTION
Chookagian matchups are usually boring and predicable, but she is taking on a fellow striker here with technique and power. Chookagian uses her own technique and reach masterfully, keeping out of range and peppering her opponents at a consistent pace.
Shevchenko had too much for her in every area, but her fight with Andrade was interesting as the Brazilian was willing to stand and trade despite giving up a six-inch reach and seven-inch height advantage. However, she could not handle her power.
Fiorot has that power in her legs and throws her kicks like punches thanks to her karate background. She will still be giving up three inches in reach and two in height, but she can make up for that with her technique.
The key for closing the distance and breaking the rhythm of Chookagian here will be aggression. Fiorot will be prepared to eat shots to get close and unleash her power. Her side kick can be particularly destructive.
If Fiorot does start to land, Chookagian has the grappling in the locker where she has the advantage. She is a decent wrestler with exceptional jiu-jitsu. However, we feel Fiorot’s power will be key factor in defending the takedowns and swaying the judges by landing the heavier shots.
Surprisingly, Chookagian is the underdog, so another decision is a no brainer for a bet. If this stays on the feet, we would lean towards Fiorot, but Chookagian has the tools and experience to cause the upset.
Prediction: Fiorot via Decision
Value Bet: Chookagian via Decision
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BELAL MUHAMMAD VS SEAN BRADY
Belal Muhammad (21-3(1)) has been sitting quietly at the top of the heap of welterweight contenders. It seems he needs an exciting finish of some sort to break into the title picture, but all he can do is keep winning and that is what he is doing. He has gone eight fights unbeaten and coming off three classic unanimous decision wins over the cream of the crop in Demian Maia (2021), Stephen Thompson (2021) and Vicente Luque back in April.
A man climbing up that heap is Sean Brady (15-0). He looks like he has everything to reach the top of the division, but unfortunately, he has not fought in nearly a year. He tore up the CFFC welterweight division, defending the championship a couple times before making his entrance to the big time. He has cruised through his five UFC fights and is coming off a submission over Jake Matthews and unanimous decision over Michael Chiesa last year.
PREDICTION
Muhammad is very well-rounded and his big wins have been thanks to his wrestling. The worry for him here is that Brady is one of the strongest grapplers in the division. He is a powerhouse with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so Muhammad is going to have to mix things up here.
As good as Muhammad’s grappling is, if he lands on his back, he will be in trouble. Brady has the strength and technique to keep him there. We feel they will be evenly matched on the feet, but Brady has the ability to shut Muhammad down for two rounds at least.
We are backing Brady but Muhammad is a no brainer as the underdog.
Prediction: Brady via Decision
Value Bet: Muhammad via Decision
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MAKHMUD MURADOV VS CAIO BORRALHO
Makhmud Muradov (25-7) is still licking his wounds after Gerald Meershaert (2021) caused a huge upset over a year ago snapping the 14-fight win streak with a submission. That colossal streak included 11 knockouts, two of which came in his first three UFC fights. He started his campaign in the big leagues with a unanimous decision over Alessio Di Chirico (2019) and then stamped his name on middleweight map with burials of Trevor Smith (2019) and Andrew Sanchez (2021).
Caio Borralho (12-1(1)) has fought four times since Muradov’s loss. He picked up two wins on the Contender series in less than a month outpointing Aaron Jeffery and knocking out Jesse Murray. He then earnt two more decisions over Gadzhi Omargadzhiev this year to get his UFC account up and running and extend his unbeaten streak to 12.
PREDICTION
A battle of the prospects. Borralho will be licking his lips watching that submission from Meershaert. Muradov is devastating on the feet but got sloppy in that fight and Borralho has the tenacity to pounce on any mistake.
They are both incredibly talented fighters and considering how aggressive they are, we will be in for fireworks. Muradov’s bread and butter is clearly his striking and Borralho is a grappler by trade but is also a good striker who can create problems bouncing in and out from his southpaw stance.
Muradov has to keep this fight on the feet at all costs. Expect him to start strong and defend the initial takedown attempts while he is fresh. However, as the fight goes on, there will be more openings for Borralho to get the fight to the floor.
This is very close to call, but we are backing the Brazilian to come on strong in the second and third round, but the value is on Muradov considering the odds and his knockout power.
Prediction: Borralho via Decision
Value Bet: Muradov via KO/TKO
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VOLKAN OEZDEMIR VS NIKITA KRYLOV
Volkan Oezdemir (18-6) is coming off a measured and much-needed win. He was on a two-fight skid albeit to two absolute monsters. The current light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka (2020) smoked him in the second round and 15 months later Magomed Ankalaev (2021) cruised a unanimous decision. However, he returned in July this year to snap Paul Craig’s six-fight unbeaten streak which included a submission over this man.
Nikita Krylov (28-9) suffered the same fate as many getting caught in Craig’s triangle. That was in March this year and came after another unanimous decision loss to Ankalaev (2021). However, Krylov has also bounced back with a huge win and knockout over Alexander Gustafsson back in July.
PREDICTION
Krylov has a slight advantage when it comes to range with two inches in reach and one in height, but it will be his experience and well-rounded skill set that will win him this one. Oezdemir has been less explosive in recent fights but he still possesses one-punch knockout power which Krylov has to respect.
The trouble is Oezdemir has been too hesitant to pull the trigger and Krylov can capitalize by offloading his own damage and mixing in grappling. Kyrlov has the technique to go toe-to-toe with Oezdemir on the feet and the grappling to steal the rounds.
Expect a lot of clinch work with Krylov attempting to grind Oezdemir down into a submission. Considering the odds, an Oezdemir knockout or win is worth a small punt, but we are backing Krylov.
Prediction: Krylov via Submission
Value Bet: Oezdemir via KO/TKO
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ARMEN PETROSYAN VS AJ DOBSON
Armen Petrosyan (7-2) heads to Abu Dhabi hoping to bounce back from his first loss in the UFC. He started with quite an impression by erasing Kaloyan Kolev (2021) with a head kick on the Contender Series which earnt him an extremely tough debut in the form of Gregory Rodrigues (2022). He passed the test edging him out in a split decision and went on to meet another killer in Caio Borralho back in July but got out grappled losing a unanimous decision.
He meets AJ Dobson (6-1(1)) who is also coming off a frustrating loss. He got completely out wrestled by Jacob Malkoun which was not a fun debut. It was the first loss of his pro career and broke his run five wins which included three finishes – two submissions and one knockout.
PREDICTION
This is kinder matchmaking for both fighters, but still a very tough fight. Dobson can also grapple and Petrosyan is a devastating kickboxer and extremely dangerous whenever there is space.
Dobson is a good striker but has to use his skills to set up the takedown. If he just stands and trades, Petrosyan will get a read on him and begin to pick him apart. If Dobson, goes grappling heavy, Petrosyan will be able to time his sprawls like he did against Rodrigues.
Dobson has the ability to be competitive on the feet and then take the fight away from the Armenian on the ground and even find a submission. However, he will need to execute a perfect game plan as there is little room for error.
We feel Dobson will be able to seal a take down, but we are backing Petrosyan to be able to spring up, create space and hurt Dobson on the feet. Petrosyan’s striking is at such a level that Dobson will need to subdue him for three rounds which is hard to see happening but that does not mean he cannot pull off the upset with a submission.
Prediction: Petrosyan via Decision
Value Bet: Dobson to win
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MUHAMMAD MOKAEV VS MALCOLM GORDON
Muhammad Mokaev (8-0) has had a dream 2022 so far. He made his UFC debut riding a seven-fight unbeaten streak and met Cody Durden at UFC Fight Night 204. It could not have gone better cinching up a guillotine in first round. Four months later in July he was paired with Charles Johnson and kept the run going with a unanimous decision.
He takes on veteran Malcolm Gordon (14-5) who is coming off two wins. He has not been as active only fighting twice since his debut in 2020 which was also in Abu Dhabi. His UFC start did not go to plan getting submitted by Amir Albazi and then knocked out by Su Mudaerji. However, he has bounced back with a unanimous decision over Francisco Figueiredo and a technical win after Denys Bondar suffered that gross arm injury.
PREDICTION
This is a big test for Mokaev. Malcolm is experienced and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu which will be crucial in preventing Mokaev dominating in top position.
Mokaev is an exceptional grappler, but it will be a risk to dangle his head and arms over Gordon for three rounds who will attack off his back. So, expect him to incorporate more striking which Gordon will be happy to oblige.
They are both well-rounded and we expect to see a mixture of striking and grappling. The grappling will be dictated by Mokaev when he gets comfortable. Gordon will make this competitive everywhere, but we feel Mokaev will be a step ahead wherever the fight goes.
Prediction: Mokaev via Decision
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