UFC Vegas 62 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 212? Saturday 15th October, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 212? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 212? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night
What channel is UFC Fight Night 212 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 212? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ALEXA GRASSO VS VIVIANE ARAUJO
Alexa Grasso (14-3) graces her first headliner slot in the UFC. This scheduling is third time lucky and got bumped up after Sean Strickland got an infected finger, postponing his fight with Jared Cannonier. This makes the fight an even bigger opportunity for Grasso to stake a claim for a title shot. She is coming off three solid wins after a competitive majority decision loss to the current champ Carla Esparza (2019) – unanimous decisions over Ji Yeon Kim (2020), and Maycee Barber (2021) before a ruthless submission over Joanne Wood back in March.
Viviane Araujo (11-3) pulled out of their first scheduling back in January due to injury and Grasso pulled out at UFC 270 with visa issues but thankfully, they are both ready and primed for UFC Vegas 62. An impressive finish here may also fast track Araujo to a title shot. She is 3-1 in her last four with her loss being a typical unanimous decision to the gatekeeper Katlyn Chookagian (2021). She earnt two unanimous decisions of her own prior over Montana De La Rosa (2020) and Roxanne Modafferi (2021) and is coming off another over Andrea Lee back in May.
PREDICTION
It will be very interesting to see how they fare over five rounds as they have all the tools. They match up very similarly with Araujo boasting a two-inch reach and power advantage.
Grasso has become a very well-rounded fighter and continues to evolve. She is a quality boxer with decent jiu-jitsu. Araujo’s bread and butter is her ground skills as a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and luta livre, but she also has dangerous Muay Thai.
We expect the majority of this fight to remain on the feet. Expect Araujo to be more aggressive whereas Grasso will look to utilize her movement and speed to counter. She will look to break her down by popping the jab and eating up Araujo’s legs.
If Grasso has any success, we can see the Brazilian resorting to the takedown and she will be wise to mix them in early. She is strong and has a clear advantage on the deck. If she relies too much on her hands, Grasso will frustrate her and we can see the Mexican finishing stronger in the championship rounds.
Neither of them have gone five rounds before, so it is vital they both have a calculated strategy and can adapt. This will be a very close fight and we expect a mixture of striking and grappling here providing an exciting display.
We feel Grasso’s finesse and cardio will serve her better as the fight goes on. Araujo has the power and grappling to cause serious problems, but we can see her getting frustrated and emptying the gas tank. She is the value pick as the underdog, but we are leaning towards a Grasso decision with her striking and clinch work convincing the judges.
Prediction: Grasso via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Araujo to win
CUB SWANSON VS JONATHAN MARTINEZ
Cub Swanson (28-12) heads to the APEX for his 22nd UFC fight and we expect nothing less than a show. His record is 13-8 in the UFC boasting wins over the likes of current champ Charles Oliveira (2012) and Dustin Poirier (2013). He has gone 3-1 after recovering from a four-fight skid with the loss coming to Giga Chikadze (2021) with a trademarked ‘Giga kick’ to the liver. Prior to that, he handed Kron Gracie (2019) his first MMA loss and has not appeared since and then went on to knock out Daniel Pineda (2020). He is now coming off another knockout and ‘Performance of the Night’, turning back the clock with a beautiful spinning wheel kick on Darren Elkins (2021).
Jonathan Martinez (16-4) is finally hitting some consistency and getting a run going. He is 7-3 in the UFC with a couple questionable losses, but since suffering his first knockout which came courtesy of Davey Grant (2021), he has strung three more measure performances together outpointing Zviad Lazishvili (2021), Alejandro Perez (2022) and Vince Morales back in May.
PREDICTION
This has got ‘Fight of the Night’ written all over it. They are both electrifying strikers with a full arsenal of attacks and they are super aggressive. They are the same stature and will oblige in a war.
Martinez has the form and when he puts everything together he looks at home in the top 10 rankings. He is a weapon from his southpaw stance and possesses thunderous kicks to test the war-beaten veteran.
However, Swanson has all of the experience and his boxing is still top tier. He has the technique and volume to overwhelm Martinez. Interestingly, he moves down to bantamweight, so if the cut goes smoothly, he could look like a different beast. On the flip side, he will be less durable against a powerful striker.
Martinez will be wise to not only target the chin but also the body. We can see one of his kicks piercing through the liver to fold Swanson, but we can also see Swanson controlling the range with his movement and unpredictable striking.
This is very tough to call. Swanson is the smart pick as the underdog, but he is no Jose Aldo and dropping down a division at this stage of a career is a worry.
Prediction: Martinez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Swanson to win
RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO VS VICTOR HENRY
We are not sure what Raphael Assuncao (22-9) has done to deserve this match up. He is 40 years old with 17 UFC fights in the bank and coming off four-straight losses. He got submitted by Marlon Moraes (2019), outpointed by Cory Sandhagen (2019) and then knocked out clean by Cody Garbrandt (2020) and Ricky Simon (2021).
Victor Henry (22-5) is only five years younger but has only lost once in his last 10. That loss was a unanimous decision to Denis Lavrentyev (2020) for the MFP – Parus Fight Championship but he responded with a submission over Albert Morales (2021 – LXF) and is fresh off causing a huge upset on his UFC debut earning a unanimous decision over Raoni Barcelos back in January.
PREDICTION
Assuncao’s streak included bantamweight beasts, but at this stage in his career, he is probably not excited to welcome lesser-known fighters who are full of confidence looking to add a big name to their record. He does not have much to gain whereas Henry has everything.
His win over Barcelos proved he still has a lot to offer. He hails from a very strong jiu-jitsu and wrestling background, but it was his striking and output that was so impressive. All bad signs for the veteran submission specialist with only four knockouts to his name.
Assuncao has the experience to make it a hard night for Henry and if it goes to the ground, he will have his best chance of snatching a neck. However, we expect Henry to put on a suffocating pace using his karate to bounce in and out of range frustrating Assuncao.
Henry has the grappling to nullify the skills of the Brazilian and the cardio to overwhelm him. Considering the damage on the clock, a knockout is not out the question.
Prediction: Henry via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Henry via KO/TKO
DUSKO TODOROVIC VS JORDAN WRIGHT
Dusko Todorovic (11-3) is experiencing life is harder at the top suffering all of his losses in his last four fights. He sat proudly on a 10-0 record after knocking out Dequan Townsend (2020) on his UFC debut. However, he went on to get TKO’d himself by Punahele Soriano (2021) and then outpointed by Gregory Rodrigues (2021). He bounced back with a vintage knockout of his own against Maki Pitolo (2021) but is coming off another devastating knockout courtesy of Chidi Njokuani’s elbow back in May.
Jordan Wright (12-3(1)) finds himself him in the same position. He has lost three of his last four after extending his unbeaten record on his UFC debut. He TKO’d Ike Villanueva (2020) before getting starched for the first time by Joaquin Buckley (2020). He replied with the seventh knockout of his career over Jamie Pickett (2021) but is coming off a TKO to Bruno Silva (2021) and a submission to Marc-Andre Barriault back in April.
PREDICTION
This is very unlikely to go to the bell not just because of their finishing ability, but mainly due to their defence. They are both extremely dangerous strikers and Todorovic also has a submission in the locker.
We expect this to start and finish on the feet. Wright has a weak chin and Todorovic likes to keep his hands low and defend with his face. The Serb packs more power, but Wright has a more diverse arsenal of attacks particularly his kicks making him dangerous at range.
He will boast a three-inch reach advantage and if he can maintain the distance, he will find the chin while staying out of trouble. However, Wright gravitates towards trouble and as soon as he nears the pocket, Todorovic is going to unleash.
We can see a knockout falling either way so the value is with Wright as the underdog, but we are backing Todorovic to be able to absorb more damage and land something clean.
Prediction: Todorovic via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Wright via KO/TKO
MISHA CIRKUNOV VS ALONZO MENIFIELD
Misha Cirkunovc (15-8) moves back up to 205 after his unsuccessful stint down at middleweight. He made the move after getting his clocked cleaned for the fourth time which came in the first round against Ryan Spann (2021). Krzysztof Jotko (2021) welcomed him to the division and squeaked past in a split decision and then Wellington Turman (2022) gave Cirkunov a taste of his own medicine by submitting him to slump to 2-6 in his last eight.
Alonzo Menifield (12-3) just reeled off a performance of old, ruthlessly knocking out Askar Mozharov back in June. The powerhouse had not knocked anyone out since Paul Craig in 2019 and has been very inconsistent. He lost to Devin Clark (2020) and Ovince Saint Preux (2020) after that win but replied with good dubs over Fabio Cherant (2021) and Ed Herman (2021). He then got outpointed by William Knight (2021) in a frustrating performance and now hopes to emulate his recent display to send Cirkunov on his way.
PREDICTION
This is a tough ask for Cirkunov who is desperate for a win. Who moves back up to light heavyweight to take on an absolute juggernaut who looked great in his last outing. The Latvian is wise enough to try and avoid Menifield’s hands at all costs and try and drag the fight into his domain.
That domain is on the ground where he has a clear advantage as a phenomenal wrestler and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. However, getting Menfield to the canvas is easier said than done. He has good takedown defence and is a barrel of muscle who will be a serious knockout threat whenever Cirkunov closes the distance.
If Cirkunov can tie Menifield up and get the fight to the deck, he has a great chance of wrapping up a submission however, considering the four knockouts on the clock and Menifield’s unholy power, we are backing the American.
Prediction: Menifield via KO/TKO - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Cirkunov via Submission
BRANDON DAVIS VS MANA MARTINEZ
Brandon Davis (14-9) continues his second stint in the UFC. He went 2-5 in his first failing to impress although he had a couple very tough match ups. He almost got split in half and submitted by Zabit Magomedsharipov (2018) and took Giga Chikadze (2019) to a split decision. After that loss, he collected four easy wins for the regional Gulf Coast MMA promotion which led to him taking a fight against Danaa Batgerel a year ago. His return could not have gone worse getting sparked in the first round.
Mana Martinez (9-3) is also coming off a loss after dropping a unanimous decision to Ronnie Lawrence back in February. That snapped a three-fight win streak including a split decision win over Guido Cannetti (2021) on his debut which is a win that has slightly increased in stock after the Argentinian’s last couple fights.
PREDICTION
This should be an exciting stand-up battle. They size up very evenly with Davis just boasting a two-inch reach advantage.
Expect Martinez to start quickly throwing a range of boxing combinations hoping to pounce on a slow start from Davis who has been out for a year. That said, he has the experience and skill set to weather the storm and cause Martinez a lot of problems on the feet and on the ground with solid Muay Thai and black belt Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills.
Martinez does not have the best takedown defence, so he will be wise to mix in some wrestling. However, as this is likely to be mainly contested on the feet, we are leaning towards Martinez whose output and power shots should convince the judges.
Prediction: Martinez via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Davis to win
JOANDERSON BRITO VS LUCAS ALEXANDER
Joanderson Brito (13-3-1) was preparing for Melsik Baghdasaryan but he had to pull out a couple weeks ago after breaking his hand. Fortunately, Brito is still on the card and is coming off the biggest win of his career. He knocked out the veteran Andre Fili in the first round back in April which came after his tough UFC debut losing a unanimous decision to Bill Algeo at the start of the year.
Lucas Alexander (7-2) steps in to replace Baghdasaryan and although he has not had much time to prepare, he is coming in hot with five straight wins and three knockouts in his last three. His last came on Anthony Pettis’ promotion back in February where he broke Jacob Kilburn’s arm with a kick forcing him to throw in the towel.
PREDICTION
Alexander has a lot of potential, but this is a tough match up for him. Brito has had a full training camp and is confident after the Fili knockout. Alexander has not had long to prepare, but he has the weapons to cause the upset.
He kicks like a mule and will have the range on Brito who can be reckless. He is very aggressive so If Alexander is patient and sets traps, he can counter with venom.
That said, the odds are stacked against Alexander and we can see why. If Brito conducts the range, he will overwhelm him with his output and also has the grappling in his locker to take the fight to the floor and rack up the points. Brito can get this done via a number of ways with a submission being the value pick.
Prediction: Brito via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Brito via Submission
TATSURO TAIRA VS CJ VERGARA
Tatsuro Taira (11-0) heads to the APEX protecting his precious unbeaten record. He arrived to the UFC a year ago coming off three straight submissions and met Carlos Candelario for his debut back in May. He extended the run with a unanimous decision and hopes to put the flyweight division on notice at UFC Vegas 62.
CJ Vergara (10-3-1) is the man assigned to break the streak and he is coming off a relieving win. He announced himself in style by flattening Bruno Mesquita (2021) with a beautiful knee on the Contender Series but lost a unanimous decision to Ode Osbourne (2021) on debut. However, he replied with a split decision win over Kleydson Rodrigues back in May.
PREDICTION
Vergara is confident of stealing the hype and he has the attributes to do so. He will give up a couple inches in reach, but he is a dog who packs a lot of power. He is well-rounded and will have to enforce his will on the youngster.
He cannot afford Taira to dictate the tempo as he awkward timing with unpredictable takedowns. He is likely to feel Vergara out on the feet but will waste little time in trying to get the fight to ground so he can work on a submission.
Vergara has good takedown defence and we expect him to give Taira his toughest test so far. This will be a fast-paced scrap that could go either way, but we are leaning towards Taira who will work hard on a submission but should squeak out a decision
Prediction: Taira via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Vergara to win
MIKE JACKSON VS PETE RODRIGUEZ
Mike Jackson (1-1(1)) is a curious case making his pro debut in the UFC against Mickey Gall (2016). He got submitted with ease and then got the golden ticket fighting CM Punk (2018) at UFC 255 ambling his way to an uneventful decision win. It was overturned for testing positive for marijuana and returned almost four years later. He took on Dean Barry back in April who eventually got disqualified for eye gouging.
Pete Rodriguez (4-1) makes his second UFC appearance after a baptism of fire back in January. He had won his first four pro fights all via first round knockout and stepped in on short notice to fight the supreme boxer Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 270. It was a mismatch receiving a taste of his own medicine and getting knocked out in the first round.
PREDICTION
Rodriguez is the huge favourite here, not because he is a prodigy, but because Jackson has not looked impressive in any of his fights. Rodriguez is a stick of dynamite and hits like a truck, but he is undersized for the division.
Jackson will boast a five-inch height and three-inch reach advantage. He also has decent Muay Thai so there is value in him considering the odds. However, we have not seen enough of him to be confident in the pick and we are backing Rodriguez’s speed and power to land more damage and he is capable of handing Jackson his first knockout loss.