UFC on ESPN 32 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC on ESPN 32? Saturday 15th January, 2022 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 32? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 32? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC on ESPN 32 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 32? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
CALVIN KATTAR VS GIGA CHIKADZE
Nobody quite expected Calvin Kattar (22-5) to get completely humbled on the feet against Max Holloway a year ago, but the former champion put on a striking clinic landing the most strikes in a fight in UFC history and ultimately losing a lobsided unanimous decision. Let’s not forget Kattar is still one of the better strikers and most polished boxers in the division as we saw when he erased Jeremy Stephens with a beautiful standing elbow and outclassed Dan Ige to a unanimous decision snapping a six-fight win streak in 2020.
Giga Chikadze (14-2) is gaining some serious steam now. He won his first five UFC fights but besides his unanimous decision over Omar Morales in 2020, his competition was not adding much to his stock. However, his reputation as one of the best strikers in Europe is bubbling after he dismantled the veteran Cub Swanson last year finishing him in the first round with the help of his ‘Giga kick’ and then he took on the legendary striker Edson Barboza in what was his toughest test by a mile. Chikadze proceeded to put on a masterful display sealing his third TKO and ‘performance of the night’ in a row.
PREDICTION
This is a very tough fight for Kattar coming off a pounding and another huge opportunity for Chikadze to prove he is a top contender. This is going to be striking spectacle with Kattar having the edge when it comes to his hands, power and MMA experience whereas the Georgian will have range and variety of attack in particular his kicks.
Chikadze only has two inches in arm reach and a half-inch leg reach advantage, but it is his technique that allows him to cause damage from range. He has an extensive kickboxing background, and he will back himself against any striker in the division especially someone like Kattar who relies on his toughness as opposed to his movement.
There is no doubting Kattar’s resilience, and he likes to walk his opponents down however, unless he adopts a lot more footwork here, Chikadze will swallow him up like a woodchipper. Holloway is a different striker to Chikadze relying more on his hands and output, but we can see the Georgian having similar success with his accuracy landing more kicks to the legs and body.
We have not seen Chikadze suffer much adversity and Kattar is the man to offer it. If he absorbs the initial damage, struts into range and hurts Chikadze, he will have a lot of questions to answer. Kattar needs to start quickly and not allow Chikadze to settle and download the range.
However, the the longer the fight goes on, the more you have to back the Georgian. It is hard to see Kattar burst out the gate coming off that loss to Holloway and fighting a striker of the calibre of Chikadze so we are backing him to take a couple rounds to settle and then proceed to pick Kattar apart from range.
Few featherweights have the ability to do that to Kattar but we believe the Georgian is one of them. Recency bias may boost Kattar’s odds, and he is more than capable of causing the upset and even a knockout.
Prediction: Chikadze via Decision
Value Bet: Kattar via KO/TKO
JAKE COLLIER VS CHASE SHERMAN
Very little was expected from Jake Collier (12-6) after nearly three years out of the game and returning at heavyweight with some extra timber. He was fed to one of the hottest prospects in the division Tom Aspinall (2020) and was inevitably knocked out. He returned five months later to take on Gian Villante who is a lot closer to his level and proved to be the better man on the night earning a unanimous decision. He then got handed a step-up in competition in Carlos Felipe (2021) and even got a nod from one of the judges but ended up losing the decision.
Chase Sherman (15-8) is clinging on to his UFC career. He went 2-5 during his first stint (2016-2018) and then racked up three knockouts in a row on the local scene with some bare knuckle fights in between to earn a second chance. He got off to a great start knocking out Ike Villanueva, but he has failed to prove he is UFC calibre since losing unanimous decisions to Andrei Arlovski and Parker Porter last year.
PREDICTION
These big boys will not be fighting for a title anytime soon and has little right being placed on a main card. That said, they are both heavy hitters and will be corked, ready to throw heat in search of a knockout.
Fortunately for us, they will both be active as they like to throw a lot of volume. In fact, Collier throws over five significant strikes per minute and Sherman over six. They also eat a lot of shots, especially Sherman (6.3). So, despite both of their last two fights ending in a decision, we could see a knockout.
We feel Sherman is more likely to find a finish out of the two especially as Collier has only one knockout since 2012. If the fight goes three rounds, we would back Collier who has the better technique and defence to finish stronger.
Prediction: Collier via Decision
Value Bet: Sherman via KO/TKO
BRANDON ROYVAL VS ROGERIO BONTORIN
Brandon Royval (12-6) is still a prospect in the flyweight division despite not winning a fight since September 2020. That was the best win on the record submitting Kai Kara-France in an epic back-and-forth fight and his second submission and ‘fight of the night’ in a row after cinching up Tim Elliott in an arm triangle four months prior in May. He had a couple tough fights last year taking on the current champion Brandon Moreno getting TKO’d in the first round and is coming off another finish, this time a submission courtesy of Alexandre Pantoja.
Rogerio Bontorin (17-3(1)) also suffered a couple setbacks recently after kicking off his UFC campaign with two good wins. He earnt a split decision over Magomed Bibulatov and a brilliant KO over Raulian Paiva in 2019 but then ran into Ray Borg losing a unanimous decision. He then got knocked out by Kara-France however, he is already back in the win column earning a unanimous decision over Matt Schnell in May despite missing weight up at bantamweight.
PREDICTION
Royval thrives in scrappy brawls which helps hides the technical holes in his striking. He is very dangerous but Bontorin has the technique advantage certainly defensively so he will want a controlled fight. He is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he will have to be very careful in the scrambles and Royval where as dangerous as it gets.
We expect Royval to put those losses behind him and resume business as usual by being very aggressive and forcing a suffocating pressure on Bontorin. However, if he has not worked on his defence, he is going to walk into trouble as Bontorin possesses the power advantage.
We expect all the striking and grappling exchanges to be very competitive but the scrappier it gets, the more you have to back Royval. If Bontorin can dictate the tempo, he can subdue Royval by taking him down and keeping there. Their jiu-jitsu should cancel each other out and it will be a fascinating battle should they end up on the mat.
Royval is the favourite, and we can see him getting a finish with his unpredictable striking and if he rocks Bontorin he could even submit the black belt. However, his 52% takedown defence could be his undoing here and we can also see the Brazilian controlling him on the mat and getting a submission of his own especially if Royval gives up his back.
Bontorin is the smart play as the underdog, but this can go either way with a variety of finishes possible.
Prediction: Bontorin via Decision
Value Bet: Bontorin via Submission
KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN VS JENNIFER MAIA
Perennial top contender, Katlyn Chookagian (16-4) returns after only managing to fight once last year. She fought three times in 2020 starting with her title shot after unanimous decisions over Joanne Wood and Jennifer Maia the year before. Like all the other flyweights, she got dominated my Valentina Shevchenko eventually getting pummelled with elbows on the ground to seal a TKO. Chookagian replied with a unanimous decision over the Queen’s sister Antonina before getting folded by a perfect liver shot by Jessica Andrade. She has then bounced back with two more vintage unanimous decisions over Cynthia Calvillo and Viviane Araujo to remain at the shallow queue of contenders.
After losing their first encounter, Jennifer Maia (19-7-1) has only fought three times with memorable performances. She took on Wood after the loss to Chookagian and put on an immaculate performance submitting the Scot in the first round earning a title shot. Maia did better than most against Shevchenko taking her to a decision and she even won a round. She also only fought once last year picking up a unanimous decision win which was over Jessica Eye back in July.
PREDICTION
Chookagian took home the spoils first time around in 2019 with a classy striking performance. Her class on the feet was on full display out landing Maia and frustrating her with her defence and movement.
Maia is a good boxer but Chookagian is one of the best technical strikers in the division who utilises her range very well so it was a bad move for Maia to engage in a stand-up battle. If she decides to stand and trade again, the fight will follow the same pattern with Chookagian constantly circling peppering Maia from range while avoiding the majority of her offence to sway the judges.
The only way this fight goes differently is if Maia calls upon her grappling. She only attempted two takedowns in their first fight succeeding with one, but she has the ability to subdue Chookagian up against the fence and rack up control time.
The more Maia grapples the more chance she has in squeaking out a decision or even a submission if she can get Chookagian on her back, but we back the rangier fighter to create enough space to pile on enough volume on the feet to bag at least two rounds.
It is unfortunate Muslim Salikhov vs Michel Pereira fell through as Chookagian’s lack of power and Maia’s boring path to victory will create a very uneventful spectacle for the co-main event.
Prediction: Chookagian via Decision
Value Bet: Maia via Decision
DAKOTA BUSH VS VIACHESLAV BORSHCHEV
Dakota Bush (8-3) heads into 2022 gunning for his first UFC win. After making an impact for the Legacy Fighting Alliance going (5-2) finishing all of his wins (three submissions and one knockout), he earnt the call-up to the main show. He was coming off a submission over Brian Del Rosario (2020) and a TKO over Austin Clem (2021) but was handed a tough debut in the shape of Austin Hubbard who came out on top with a unanimous decision.
Now, it is Viacheslav Borshchev’s (5-1) turn to make his UFC debut. He has only had six professional fights, but he is coming off three knockouts last year. He TKO’d Corey Dulaney and Kendly St Louis under the Titan Fighting Championships banner and then flatlined Chris Duncan on the Contender Series with a picture-perfect left hook to earn his shot in the UFC.
PREDICTION
Bush’s fight with Hubbard was taken on short notice so we cannot read too much into that loss. Borshchev has looked electric so far but besides Duncan, he has not fought anyone with a decent record.
This is going to be a very competitive and exciting scrap. Borshchev is inexperienced in MMA, but he is an accomplished kickboxer so he will be desperate to keep the fight on the feet. The Russian has excellent compact technique. He has great defence and does not waste energy in throwing slick combinations and kicks.
Bush has the ability to expose the holes in his grappling game however, his confidence in his striking could be his undoing. We expect Borshchev to inflict early damage with his jab and leg kicks. The longer this stays on the feet, the more he will open up and break Bush down.
We are backing Borshchev who has been working hard on his grappling at Team Alpha Male to earn a decision displaying his superior striking.
Prediction: Borshchev via Decision
Value Bet: Bush via Decision
BILL ALGEO VS JOANDERSON BRITO
Bill Algeo (14-6) has found it tough to gain any momentum in the UFC. He got handled by Brendan Loughnane (2019) on the Contender Series but got a shot in the big time by stepping up on short notice to fight veteran Ricardo Lamas (2020). It was a great fight, but he was not quite ready losing a unanimous decision. He then put on another show with Spike Carlyle (2020) and picked up his sole UFC win, but he is coming off another unanimous decision loss, this time to Ricardo Ramos in May last year.
Joanderson Brito (12-2-1) finally makes his debut but he has only fought once since 2019. That was a first-round starching of Jose Mariscal for the Legacy Fighting Alliance three months after submitting Estabili Amato for the Future Fighting Championships. Brito returned to action in August last year on the Contender Series earning a unanimous decision over Diego Lopes, passing the audition and extending his win streak to 10.
PREDICTION
Brito is a very exciting fighter. He is aggressive, explosive and swings for the fences from his southpaw stance. What makes him the favourite for us is that he is also a strong wrestler.
Including his fight with Loughnane, Algeo has been taken down in every UFC fight and a total of 20 times with 55% takedown defence. They are alarming statistics when fighting a strong wrestler and we are backing Brito to earn a decision by chaining takedowns together. He will struggle to pin Algeo down, but he will control him enough to convince the judges.
However, considering Brito’s aggressiveness and explosiveness we can see him gas out. He throws everything into his shots and if he expends too much energy in the first round, Algeo will change the course of the fight and begin to pick the Brazilian apart with his unorthodox striking.
We are still backing Brito for a decision, but anything can happen in the third round depending on how tired he is. If he is exhausted, we could even see a submission from Algeo as Brito has a tendency to leave his neck exposed when pursuing the takedown.
Prediction: Brito via Decision
Value Bet: Algeo via Submission
JAMIE PICKETT VS JOSEPH HOLMES
Jamie Pickett (12-6) is fresh off the biggest win of his career earning a classy unanimous decision over Laureano Staropoli to collect his first win in the UFC and keep his place on the roster. He originally earnt the call-up by knocking out Jhonoven Pati (2020) on the Contender Series but lost his first two fights – a unanimous decision to Tafon Nchukwi (2020) and a first-round knockout to Jordan Wright (2021).
Pickett was scheduled to fight Caio Borralho, but the Brazilian pulled out giving Joseph Holmes (7-1) the opportunity for his debut. The Texan is coming in hot with seven finishes on the bounce (five submissions and two knockouts). His last submission was over Shonte Barnes (2021) on the Contender Series but like Pickett, it was a knockout over Pati that convinced the UFC he is ready.
PREDICTION
Pickett still has everything to prove and a dominant loss to the newcomer will put more pressure on his UFC tenure. Unfortunately for him, Holmes is a quality fighter. He does not have any notable wins on the record, but he is a natural finisher.
Pickett has gained some much-needed confidence and is a dangerous striker from his southpaw stance. He also has a huge 80-inch reach, but that is matched by Holmes who along with Adesanya is the tallest middleweight standing at 6’4”.
Holmes is also a good striker and is also very dangerous on the ground. He is brimming with confidence, and we feel he has the edge in every area and if he can get Pickett to the ground either by rocking him dragging him down, he could pick up his sixth submission.
Prediction: Holmes via Submission
Value Bet: Pickett to win
COURT MCGEE VS RAMIZ BRAHIMAJ
Court McGee (20-10) is coming off a unanimous decision win over Claudio Silva in May which was his first win since 2018. The writing appeared to be on the wall when he lost a unanimous decision to Carlos Condit (2020) which was his fifth loss in his last six. The win was against Alex Garcia but then dropped the points to Dhiego Lima (2019) and Sean Brady (2019) before the loss to Condit.
Ramiz Brahimaj (9-3) is 3-3 in his last six, but he has not even begun to fulfil his potential. He made a name for himself for the Legacy Fighting Alliance picking up quality submissions over the likes of Bilal Williams (2018), William Macario (2018) and Carlos Martinez (2019) but lost unanimous decisions in between those wins. He then fought Max Griffin (2020) for his UFC debut and suffered a horrendous injury with Griffin almost elbowing his ear off. However, he got back to his old submitting ways in August by cinching Sasha Palatnikov up in a rear-naked choke.
PREDICTION
The narrative here is can the submission artist submit the man who has never been submitted. This is a very important test for Brahimaj, not whether he can submit McGee or not but whether he can get past a tough yet ageing veteran who is way past his prime.
McGee is well-rounded and incredibly durable. He will look to keep the fight standing and although he is a good wrestler, he will be confident that his hands can get the job done. However, Brahimaj has the speed and youth to win the exchanges on the feet.
Brahimaj will also look for any opportunity to get the fight to the floor and hunt a submission. We know how difficult it is for get past McGee let alone submit him, but we feel Brahimaj has the tools and his youth and confidence swing this in his favour for us.
We are backing him to earn a classy decision, and although McGee’s last eight fights have gone the distance, do not be surprised if he hands McGee his first submission loss.
Prediction: Brahimaj via Decision
Value Bet: Brahimaj via Submission
CHARLES ROSA VS TJ BROWN
Charles Rosa (14-6) steps in for Gabriel Benitez on just three days’ notice. He is clearly desperate to bounce back from his heated fight with Damon Jackson back in October where he lost a unanimous decision. That loss has kept up an unfortunate streak for Rosa who has gone on an alternate win – loss streak since his debut which spans 11 fights.
TJ Brown (15-8) is also in ropey form losing two of his last three. He got submitted by Jordan Wright (2020) on his UFC debut which snapped a four-fight win streak including a submission of his own against Dylan Lockard (2019) on the Contender Series. Danny Chavez (2020) made it two losses in a row with a unanimous decision, but he is coming off a much-needed win albeit a split decision over Kai Kamaka who has since been cut.
PREDICTION
Understandably this fight has been moved up to 155 lbs to give Rosa a chance of making weight. His last three losses have come to elite grapplers, and he seems to enjoy those matchups to test his black belt jiu-jitsu skills.
Brown is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and averages over four takedowns a fight. So, unfortunately for Rosa, we expect him to spend more time defending the takedown. He will not need a training camp as he has had enough practice in the cage, but the only issue will be his cardio.
We expect the first two rounds to be very even exchanging takedowns. If there is a finish, a Rosa submission is your best bet but if this goes into the third round, you have to back Brown.