UFC Fight Night 199 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Fight Night 199? Saturday 18th December, 2021 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 199? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 199? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 199 on? BT Sport 3
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 199? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
DERRICK LEWIS VS CHRIS DAUKAUS
There is no harm in getting finessed by Ciryl Gane, but Derrick Lewis (25-8(1)) looked completely out of his depth with the speed, movement and technique of the Frenchman. It broke the momentum of a four-fight win streak after back-to-back losses. He squeaked two unconvincing decisions over Blagoy Ivanov (2019) and Ilir Latifi (2020) but then made two colossal statements in blasting Alexey Oleynik (2020) and then stiffened Curtis Blaydes (2021) with a perfect uppercut. Now, he needs to answer some questions about his motivation after the TKO loss to Gane back in August.
Chris Daukaus (12-3) heads to the APEX for the third time and is in the form of his life. He is leading the crop of promising heavyweights after four effortless UFC wins stretching his knockout streak to five. He made quick work of Parker Porter (2020), Rodrigo Nascimento (2020) and Oleynik (2021) finishing them in the first round and then welcomed Shamil Abdurakhimov back to the octagon in September and racked up his third ‘performance of the night’ and 11th career knockout.
PREDICTION
This is just another fight for Lewis whereas this is the biggest opportunity of Daukaus’ career, catapulting him into the top five with a win. Lewis obviously has a seismic advantage when it comes to experience, but, Daukaus has all the tools to beat him which makes him the favourite.
This is a giant leap in competition for him, but he has the speed and movement to piece Lewis up and the power to put him away. Expect him to leverage that speed by attacking the body of Lewis which has looked vulnerable in previous fights.
One clean rip to the liver can completely change the course of the fight, but the same can be said if Lewis connects. He does not have the movement of Daukaus and he will not throw much volume, but he will be coiled with a touch of death. We could see him get beat up for three rounds and then uncork an unholy bomb on Daukaus’ jaw.
If Lewis is not motivated, Daukaus has the speed and fearlessness to collect his biggest scalp especially is he fights smart and attacks the body and legs of Lewis instead of head hunting, but Lewis’ experience has to count for something here.
We understand why Daukaus is the favourite, but Lewis’ experience fighting in main events, with champions and possessing legitimate one-punch knockout in a stand-up battle sway it for us and he has all the value as the underdog.
Prediction: Lewis via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Lewis via KO/TKO
STEPHEN THOMPSON VS BELAL MUHAMMAD
Stephen Thompson (16-5-1) is approaching his 40’s but still battling it out with some of the best welterweights in the world. After his decision loss to Darren Till (2018) which could have easily gone his way and the shock knockout loss to Anthony Pettis (2019) to make it three losses in his last four, he picked off two top contenders with vintage classy unanimous decisions – Vicente Luque (2019) and Geoff Neal (2020). He then got handed Gilbert Burns (2021) who was coming off that humbling title fight and TKO loss courtesy of Kamaru Usman.
Belal Muhammad (19-3(1)) has only lost once in his last 11 which is a feat in the welterweight division. His last loss was a unanimous decision to Neal (2019) and has since collected wins over Curtis Millender (2019), Takashi Sato (2019), Lyman Good (2020) and Dhiego Lima (2021) before receiving a nasty eye poke from Leon Edwards (2021) forcing a ‘no contest’. He was getting outclassed in that fight so did not earn an immediate rematch but returned three months later in June to earn another unanimous decision over Demian Maia.
PREDICTION
Thompson struggled with the wrestling, power and pressure of Burns and was too reactive. That loss could be the perfect preparation for Muhammad or Muhammad can inflict similar pain capitalising on an ageing body.
Muhammad does not quite have the power of Burns and certainly not the jiu-jitsu, but he does have the wrestling and cardio to cause Thompson some problems. He has to try and close the distance and pressure him up against the cage, but that is a lot easier said than done.
Wonderboy is incredibly illusive still so if Muhammad does attempt to enforce some grappling, he has to be persistent with his pressure. Thompson’s movement and takedown defence may even scare off any takedown attempts forcing a stand-up battle, where Thompson will stretch away with his skill.
Muhammad is a decent striker and will be competitive in batches but he is not on Wonderboy’s level although few fighters are technique wise. Unless Muhammad can enforce a clinch or takedown to control portions of the fight, Wonderboy will continually offload an array of strikes, picking him apart from range to sway the judges.
Prediction: Thompson via Decision
AMANDA LEMOS VS ANGELA HILL
Since dropping down to strawweight, Amanda Lemos (10-1-1) has looked like an absolute beast displaying power we rarely see in the division. She has fought up at bantamweight and even earnt a title for the Jungle Fight promotion. She stayed in the weight class for her UFC debut back in 2017, stepping in on short notice to take on Leslie Smith but the size discrepancy was obvious and she was eventually TKO’d in the second round. She was then banned for a couple years failing a drugs test which gave her time to condition herself for her natural weight class where she has begun to blaze a 115 lb trail submitting Miranda Granger (2019), outpointing Mizuki Inoue (2020) and knocking out Livia Renata Souza (2021) and Montserrat Ruiz (2021).
Her record is not as pretty, but Angela Hill (13-10) has been fighting among the best in the division since her debut in 2017. She is 7-8 in the UFC now losing three of her last four. She lost razor thin split decisions to top contenders Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson (2020), cruised past Ashley Yoder (2021) in a unanimous decision but is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Tecia Torres five months later in August.
PREDICTION
Lemos is the dark horse of the division and is a threat everywhere. She is ferocious on the feet and is also a very strong grappler. She has great jiu-jitsu and has not called upon her wrestling that much, but she has succeeded in all four of her takedown attempts and that is the easiest path to victory against Hill.
Hill is very experienced now and although the Muay Thai specialist has worked hard on her wrestling, Lemos’ power will be too much if she decides to take the fight to the ground.
That said, Lemos will back herself in any stand-up fight. Hill will no doubt want to keep the fight on the feet, and we will see some fascinating exchanges when Lemos obliges. Hill will not have a reach advantage, but she has the movement and volume to frustrate Lemos.
That said, we feel Lemos’ power will also be too much on the feet. Hill’s lack of knockout power will give Lemos confidence in trading and she will not need to land many strikes to swing the fight in her favour. If she also mixes in takedowns, she will be able to control the fight and even set up a submission.
This will be a tough fight for Lemos, but we are backing her power on the feet and in the grappling exchanges. She can finish this via submission or knockout, but we are backing Hill’s defence to drag this to the bell.
Prediction: Lemos via Decision
RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO VS RICKY SIMON
Raphael Assuncao (27-8) is on a three-fight skid, but they were to former title challengers and a former champion. The veteran compiled four great wins together earning split decisions over Aljamain Sterling and Marlon Moraes (2017) before knocking out Matthew Lopez (2017). He followed that up with a unanimous decision over Rob Font (2018) before meeting Moraes (2019) again who was hungry for vengeance. He steamrolled Assuncao submitting him in the first round and then lost a unanimous decision to Cory Sandhagen (2019). Cody Garbrandt was also struggling for form, but the former champion pulled off one of the knockouts of the year back in June last year.
Ricky Simon (18-3) has only lost twice in his last 12 and heads to the APEX hoping to extend his current streak to four. After that controversial submission over the bantamweight bogey man Merab Dvalishvili (2018) and unanimous decisions over Montel Jackson (2018) and Rani Yahya (2019), Simon welcomed Urijah Faber (2019) back from retirement and suffered a shock knockout for his troubles. He then lost a unanimous decision to Rob Font (2019) but he has roared back with wins over Ray Borg (2020), Gaetano Pirrello (2021) and Brian Kelleher (2021)
PREDICTION
Simon is a tough fight for anyone, let alone being without a win in over three years and not having fought for 18 months. Assuncao has the edge when it comes to experience and jiu-jitsu, but if Simon is on his game, that will count nothing.
Simon is one of the best wrestlers in the division and is also very handy on the feet. He will possess the speed advantage and we expect him to test his boxing against the veteran to begin with anyway.
We expect Simon’s reach and speed advantage to win the striking exchanges and if Simon decides to call upon his wrestling, he can control the rounds and leave the judges in no doubt.
Assuncao is extremely well-rounded and despite the form, he has the nous to make it a very difficult night for Simon. Considering the odds, he is worth a punt, but we are backing the younger contender to overwhelm the Brazilian with his pressure and wrestling in between showing off his improving boxing.
Prediction: Simon via Decision
Value Bet: Assuncao via Decision
CARLOS DIEGO FERREIRA VS MATEUSZ GAMROT
Carlos Diego Ferreira (17-4) was surging up the lightweight ranks a couple years ago. He lost his third and fourth UFC fights to Beneil Dariush (2014) and Dustin Poirier (2015) but then barely put a foot wrong collecting six quality wins capping the streak off with a submission over the former champion Anthony Pettis (2020). He was then awarded with a rematch against Dariush who was also flying up the ranks however, he could not quite get revenge losing a split decision. He was then handed another beast of a grappler in Gregor Gillespie and a back-and-forth battle eventually getting TKO’d in the second round.
Mateusz Gamrot (19-1(1)) arrived to the UFC last October with a ton of hype protecting an unbeaten record. He was paired with Guram Kutateladze and put on a very entertaining scrap which could have gone either way but finally suffered a dent in the record losing a split decision. However, he has since reminded everyone why there was a hype train earning two ‘performance of the night’ bonuses by knocking out Scott Holtzman and submitting Jeremy Stephens this year.
PREDICTION
Their bread and butter is their grappling as decorated jiu-jitsu practitioners. They are also quality wrestlers, especially Gamrot but we expect their elite-level skills to cancel each other out for the majority of the fight at least.
This will create a stand-up battle and as they are both extremely aggressive, we could see a war. Gamrot is the more technical striker, but Ferreira possesses a four-inch reach advantage and the unpredictability to put Gamrot in trouble.
This can go either way and the wilder it gets the more you have to back Ferreira who will predatorily pounce on the back in a scramble. That said, we are backing the technique and power of Gamrot to win the stand-up battle inflicting a lot of damage with his straight right hand and he also has the wrestling to dictate how deep they go in the grappling exchanges.
We could not see the Brazilian going on a three-fight skid a year ago, but he is not getting any younger this is a very tough fight for him. There is value in him as the underdog, but Gamrot is a beast who is only getting better.
Prediction: Gamrot via Decision
Value Bet: Ferreira to win
CUB SWANSON VS DARREN ELKINS
Fan favourite, Cub Swanson (27-12) returns for his 21st UFC fight. When you have fought a long as he has at a high level, the decline is inevitable. He took on four monsters in a row between 2017 and 2019 losing to all of them – Brian Ortega (submission), Frankie Edgar (unanimous decision), Renato Moicano (submission) and Shane Burgos (split decision). He was then seemingly fed to the jiu-jitsu wizard Kron Gracie to get submitted, but he displayed all his experience and skill defending the takedowns and handing him his first MMA loss. He then turned back the clock knocking out Daniel Pineda, but was then paired with another monster, Giga Chikadze who TKO’d him in the first round.
Darren Elkins (26-9) makes his 25th appearance and like Swanson, he has also bounced back from a four-fight skid. The current champion Alexander Volkanovski snapped his six-fight win streak with a comfortable unanimous decision and then he got TKO’d by Ricardo Lamas to pile on more misery. Ryan Hall and Nate Landwehr then made it four losses in a row with unanimous decisions. He replied with a submission over Luiz Eduardo Garagorri sending him out of the UFC and then he pulled a ‘performance of the night’ out the bag with a TKO of Darrick Minner five months ago.
PREDICTION
Two absolute war horses are destined for a gritty scrap here. We know what to expect from Elkins and that will be to try grapple for three rounds with a furious pace. He will not go away and he will keep pressing forward no matter how much damage he takes.
So, Swanson needs to fight smart and not be tempted into a brawl which is hard for him to do especially as he is very good at it. We are backing Swanson’s cardio and takedown defence to avoid being subdued by Elkins and the more space he can create, the more damage he will inflict with a clear striking advantage.
We still expect Elkins to close the distance by enforcing the odd clinch and he is the value bet as the underdog, but Swanson should win this fight with his trademarked ‘beautiful chaos’ on the feet.
Prediction: Swanson via Decision
Value Bet: Elkins via Decision
GERALD MEERSCHAERT VS DUSTIN STOLTZFUS
After Gerald Meershcaert (33-14) got knocked out by Ian Heinisch and swallowed whole by Khamzat Chimaev getting sparked out in 17 seconds, many people wrote him off. However, he has shown tremendous character after the high-profile loss bouncing back with two submissions and ‘performance of the night’ bonuses. He took on the strong wrestler Bartosz Fabinski cinching up a guillotine in the first round and then took on hot prospect Makhmud Muradov choking him out in the second round and snapping his 14-fight win streak.
Dustin Stoltzfus (13-3) is also picking himself up after getting a hefty win streak snapped. He won nine in a row on the local scene including five submissions to earn an audition on the Contender Series. He passed in an odd fight which ended prematurely. He took Joseph Pyfer down, but Pyfer landed awkwardly dislocating his elbow to earn a TKO. Stoltzfus has found life a lot tougher in the UFC however, losing a unanimous decision to Kyle Daukaus a year ago and then got submitted in July this year by the submission wizard Rodolfo Vieira.
PREDICTION
This is a much kinder match-up for Meershcaert and he has a great opportunity to make it three-in-a-row. He has the experience and range on Stoltzfus who will be nervous seeking his first UFC win.
Stoltzfus is also very slick on the mat and will not be afraid to tangle with Meerschaert. He does not exactly have blistering knockout power, but Meerschaert has a lot of miles on the clock, so the striking exchanges will be interesting.
Overall, we feel Meerschaert has the advantage on the feet and on the ground. His experience will also be crucial here and with a new surge of confidence, we expect him to get the job done. Stoltzfus is worth a punt as the underdog, but we fancy a scrappy fight ending in another submission for Meerschaert.
Prediction: Meerschaert via Submission
Value Bet: Stoltzfus to win
RAONI BARCELOS VS VICTOR HENRY
Raoni Barcelos (16-2) finally got derailed in his last fight back in June. He finished Kurt Holobaugh (2018), Chris Gutierrez (2018) and Carlos Huachin (2019) in his first three UFC fights and then earnt unanimous decisions over Said Nurmagomedov (2019) and Khalid Taha (2020) to extend his streak to nine. However, he then crossed paths with Timur Valiev back in June who was busy compiling his own impressive streak and snuck past Barcelos in a majority decision.
Trevin Jones was lined up for Barcelos’ but pulled out giving Victor Henry (21-5) the opportunity to make his UFC debut. He has built an impressive record himself fighting for various promotions and even has wins over Anderson dos Santos and Kyler Phillips (2018). They were part of an eight-fight win streak capped off by two finishes for Rizin, but then lost a unanimous decision to Denis Lavrentyev for MFP last year. He bounced back with a submission win over Albert Morales a couple months ago for Lights Out Xtreme and now steps up for the biggest fight of his career.
PREDICTION
Preparing for Barcelos on short notice is no easy task so Henry has to approach this feeling he has nothing to lose and just let his hands go.
The former RFA champion is a decorated jiu-jitsu competitor and Henry is not going to trouble him on the floor despite his own impressive ground skills. We expect the majority of this fight to remain on the feet where we give Barcelos the advantage.
He has the speed and power to put Henry away, but he has to respect his striking. Henry has speed and mixes his attacks up well, so as long as Barcelos fights smart, he should cruise this with a variety of outcomes possible for him.
Prediction: Barcelos via Decision
JUSTIN TAFA VS HARRY HUNSUCKER
Justin Tafa (4-3) is not blowing anyone away with that record, but he has the power to put anyone to sleep. The problem is that he has struggled to display that power losing three of his four UFC fights. It is hard to forget that hellacious knockout loss on his debut courtesy of Yorgan de Castro (2019). He responded with a vintage first round knockout over Juan Adams (2020) but has gone on to lose two decisions this year. A split decision to Carlos Felipe and a unanimous one to Jared Vanderaa seven months ago.
Harry Hunsucker (7-4) has been rewarded by stepping up on a few days’ notice to fight Tai Tuivasa back at UFC Vegas 22 in March. He inevitably got knocked out but now has a chance to prove he is UFC calibre. He failed to impress the UFC on the Contender series getting TKO’d by Vanderaa (2020) in the first round, That snapped a five-fight win streak (three submissions and two knockouts) under the Hardrock MMA banner and then went back to collect another knockout for them before running into Tuivasa.
PREDICTION
Tafa is a lot better than his record suggests and he is steadily improving. Hunsucker has looked great on the regional scene but that means nothing in the UFC and it remains to be seen whether he can stay afloat in the big time.
Tafa needs to be proactive and start to land. We expect him to throw his power leg kicks but needs to be careful getting taken down. If they do end up on the canvas, you have to back the ground skills of Hunsucker.
However, Tafa only needs to land one clean leg kick to disable Hunsucker. We also back him to win the exchanges causing a lot of trouble from his southpaw stance. There is a lot of value in the underdog and although he will be giving up a lot of weight, he will have the speed to cause Tafa problems. That said, we are backing Tafa to get back on track with a knockout.
Prediction: Tafa via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Hunsucker to win
RAQUEL PENNINGTON VS MACY CHIASSON
Raquel Pennington (12-8) returns for her 15th UFC fight, and it is great to see her active again. She has not quite looked the same since her ATV accident in 2017 and she is unlikely to ever compete for a title again, but she is now a formidable gatekeeper. Her first fight back after the accident was for the title when Amanda Nunes (2018) but a five round beating on her sealing the deal with a fifth round TKO. She then lost a unanimous decision to Germaine de Randamie (2018) but bounced back with a hard-fought split decision win over Irene Aldana (2019). She lost a second decision to Holly Holm (2020) but has regained some momentum after earning unanimous decisions over Marion Reneau (2020) and Pannie Kianzad (2021).
An injury to Julia Avila has opened the door for Macy Chiasson (7-1) to blast through the gate and into title contender discussions. She looked phenomenal on The Ultimate Fighter back in 2018 and went on to submit Kianzad and knockout Gina Mazany (2019) and Sarah Moras (2019). She then suffered the first setback of her career losing a unanimous decision to Lina Landsberg (2019) but has responded with solid unanimous decisions over Shanna Young (2020) and Marion Reneau (2021).
PREDICTION
Both ladies are bantamweight powerhouses with contrasting attributes. Chiasson is one of the rangiest females on the roster and will boast a five-inch reach and four-inch height advantage.
If the Chiasson that fought Lansberg turns up at the APEX, Pennington will school her with her grappling and offloading enough strikes to sway the judges. They have very similar striking and grappling stats however, we can easily see the majority of this fight in the clinch where Pennington will be able to leverage her power and bank the rounds.
Chiasson can leverage her own power on the feet and use her speed and reach advantage to tag Pennington from a distance and she can cause the upset if she comes out aggressive and maintains the distance.
That said, we are backing Pennington to call upon all her experience to nullify the threat of Chiasson by tying her up and grinding out a decision.
Prediction: Pennington via Decision
Value Bet: Chiasson via Decision
JORDAN LEAVITT VS MATT SAYLES
Jordan Leavitt (8-1) returns after suffering the first loss of his career. He stormed his way to 7-0 after submitting Jose Flores (2020) on the Contender series. Then then made a lot of noise on his debut and that was not just Matt Wiman’s (2020) head slamming off the octagon canvas. He was then paired with Claudio Puelles back in June and lost a unanimous decision, so still has a lot to prove.
Matt Sayles (8-3) has struggled to find any momentum since 2016. He has only fought five times since and picked up two quality knockouts over Christian Aguilera (2017) for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships and then Yazan Hajeh (2018) on the Contender Series. However, he then lost a unanimous decision to Sheymon Moraes (2018) before submitting Kyle Nelson (2019) and then ran into Bryce Mitchell (2019) who decided to wrap Sayles up in a twister.
PREDICTION
Leavitt’s loss was a big setback, but we are confident it will serve him well in the long-term and this is a good match-up for him to get back on track. He has all the tools to exploit the holes in Sayles’ game.
Sayles has suspect takedown defence and Leavitt is a very strong and dynamic wrestler. As long as Leavitt can avoid the threat on the feet, in particular Sayles’ hands which will come in the form of dangerous hooks, we expect Leavitt to take him down, control him and work towards a submission