UFC Vegas 36 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 36? Saturday 4th September, 2021 -19:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 36? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 36? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 36 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 36? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
DEREK BRUNSON VS DARREN TILL
Derek Brunson (22-7) version 2.0 is steaming ahead on a four-fight win streak. He used to be a reckless slugger with awful defence, and it served him well against the likes of Dan Kelly and Lyoto Machida who he sparked out in the first round, but Jacare Souza and Israel Adesanya humiliated him displaying a huge gulf in striking technique and he was the one falling victim to two first-round knockouts. Those losses forced him back to the drawing board where he formulated a much more cerebral approach with his coaches. Since then he earnt unanimous decisions over Elias Theodorou and Ian Heinisch before derailing the hottest middleweight prospect at the time, Edmen Shahbazyan who he threw around the octagon before pounding him out on the ground. He followed that up with a similar performance against Kevin Holland dominating him with his wrestling to earn a unanimous decision.
Darren Till (18-3-1) has lost three of his last four and only fought three times since 2018, suffering various injuries. Miserable form but he has fought top contender after top contender. He earnt a unanimous decision over Stephen Thompson in 2018 which could have gone either way. He then suffered his first two losses getting ravaged and submitted by a prime Tyron Woodley for the welterweight strap and then starched by Jorge Masvidal. He returned at middleweight to fight Kelvin Gastelum and earned a hard-fought split decision, but was then handed one of the best middleweights of all time in Robert Whittaker losing a unanimous decision in July last year.
PREDICTION
Brunson is an experienced veteran, but he seems reborn and is finally living up to the promise he showed earlier in his career. This is all down to mixing in his NCAA Division 2 calibre wrestling and not running into brawls chin-first. The old Brunson would get smoked by Till, even after a year out but this is a very different match-up now and will depend on Till’s takedown defence.
Brunson is still capable of causing havoc on the feet and now his wrestling-heavy approach will enable him to set his striking up better especially against a seasoned striker in Till. Brunson does not secure many takedowns (33% accuracy) but he will look to win this fight with control time, forcing the pressure, closing the distance, clinching up against the fence and try to catch Till off guard with his monster overhand left or head kick.
Brunson will possess a three-inch reach advantage but Till has exceptional distance control and movement. He will set up his strikes with his footwork and timing, bouncing in and out of range and utilising lateral movement in the pocket to find an opening. They are both southpaws so, expect Till to target Brunson’s lead right leg with calf kicks and Brunson to pounce on a single-leg takedown.
We can see Brunson sealing at least one takedown in each round and he has the ability to earn enough control time to snatch the rounds or catching him with a Hail Mary. The latter will only be possible when Till is expecting the takedown.
If Brunson makes this boring, there is a lot of value in him as the underdog. However, if he tests his ego on the feet or gets tempted into a brawl, Till will chew him up and spit him out. The first round will indicate how the fight will go and we expect Till to be illusive and shrug off the first few takedowns. The key factor here could be Brunson’s chin. It is war beaten and over five rounds, Till will land and if his straight left lands clean, Brunson’s streak will end in dramatic fashion.
Prediction: Till via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Brunson via Decision
TOM ASPINALL VS SERGEY SPIVAK
Tom Aspinall (10-2) officially stepped up into prospect status in February by submitting the legend Andrei Arlovski. That made it six in a row for the big Brit with three perfect outings in the UFC. The only blemish on the record since 2015 is a disqualification for a downward elbow. He bagged three knockouts after that and then finally accepted an offer from the UFC. He started his account with his seventh and eighth knockout over Jake Collier and Alan Baudot and then got handed a more even match-up in the form of the veteran Arlovski. Now the stage is set to announce himself as a new heavyweight contender.
Sergei Pavlovich was the man to meet him on stage, but visa issues has given another Sergey the chance to co-headline UFC Fight Night 191. Sergey Spivak (13-2) is enjoying his best form after a shaky UFC start. He was welcomed by an assault from Walt Harris suffering the first loss and knockout of his career. He bounced back with a quality submission over Tai Tuivasa but lost again dropping a unanimous decision to Marcin Tybura. However, he has found his feet with excellent wins - a majority decision over Carlos Felipe, a TKO over Jared Vanderaa and a unanimous decision over Alexey Oleynik.
PREDICTION
Aspinall has been calling out Spivak for a while and it has unexpectedly fallen into place. Hs seems to have it all as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and powerhouse with the speed of a light heavyweight. However, he is extremely level-headed about his ability and is well-aware of how young he is in his career.
He has been planning to fight Spivak for a while and knows he has the skill set to beat him although his approach may have changed after the Moldovan’s recent fights. He secured 12 takedowns in his fights with Tuivasa, Felipe, Vanderaa and against Oleynik, he showcased his stand-up.
However, it is hard to see how he gets past Aspinall. The Brit has good takedown defence, high-level jiu-jitsu and is a level above on the feet. His speed and power in particular swing this in his favour. If he can shrug off the majority of takedown attempts, he has the speed and movement to overwhelm Spivak on the feet.
Spivak will make this competitive, but Aspinall has the ability to get the dub via knockout, submission or earn a more patient decision. Spivak can sap enough energy through takedown attempts and drag the fight to the bell, but we expect Aspinall to eventually pierce Spivak’s guard with his lightening hands to earn his sixth career knockout.
Prediction: Aspinall via KO/TKO
ALEX MORONO VS DAVID ZAWADA
Alex Morono (19-7(1)) is coming off the biggest win of his career. Although he is way past his prime, adding Donald Cerrone to the win column is always impressive, especially a first round knockout. That was in May and in response to losing a unanimous decision to Anthony Pettis which capped off a mixed 2020 where he earnt a unanimous decision to Rhys McKee but also got absolutely starched by Khaos Williams. Morono is now 8-4(1) in the UFC and although he does not have a glamour tie like Cerrone and Pettis but is will be just as challenging.
David Zawada (17-6) is 1-3 in the UFC, but he is better than that record suggests. Danny Roberts squeaked past him in a split decision on his debut and then Li Jingliang made it two losses in a row after a pinpoint kick to the liver leading to a TKO. He responded by cinching up brilliant triangle on Abubakar Nurmagomedov in a triangle but is coming off another split decision which was to Ramazan Emeev back in January.
PREDICTION
Zawada was preparing for Sergey Khandozhko but the Russian dropped out so he may have to rethink his strategy. Morono is also well-rounded, and he is no stranger to short notice fights and he will be very dangerous for the first round at least.
They are both heavy-handed strikers with good grappling and we can expect to see all their skills here. It will not be a spectacle but the will but there will be a lot of damage absorbed mainly due to their suspect defence.
Whoever has more volume should get the nod here and we are backing Morono edging the striking exchanges in the first two rounds at least and throwing in a few takedowns to sway the judges.
Prediction: Morono via Decision
KHALIL ROUNTREE JR VS MODESTAS BUKAUSKAS
Khalil Rountree Jr (8-5(1)) has been flirting with retirement and it has shown. After Johnny Walker’s elbow sent him into another dimension, he came back rejuvenated from Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand and put on a masterful Muay Thai clinic against Eryk Anders. It was version 2.0 of Rountree, and we could not wait to see him return however, he went and got knocked out by Ion Cutelaba. That was in September 2019 and he returned in January to fight Marcin Prachnio who was fighting to save his UFC career on a three-fight skid but ended up losing a limp unanimous decision. He is back but now it could be him fighting to save his UFC career.
Modestas Bukauskas (11-4) is also in murky UFC waters after losing his last two. He came in hot into the UFC riding a seven-fight win streak with his last six ending in knockout. He got paired with fellow debutant Andreas Michailidis and carried on the streak with a ruthless first round TKO. However, he met a light heavyweight prospect in the form of Jimmy Crute who violently buried him in the first round. He then met Michal Oleksiejczuk and fell on the wrong side of a split decision so another loss will be worrying although it would be surprising to see the UFC let an exciting light heavyweight talent go at this stage of his career..
PREDICTION
Do not blink as these knockout artists are capable of ending the show in a flash. Bukauskas has the bigger frame with a four-inch reach and two-inch height advantage. He also has great footwork and can keep up a solid pace for three rounds.
Rountree has blistering speed and power and has adopted a full-on Muay Thai style bouncing on his feet with a squared stance. This is ideal of checking leg kicks and he will be ready to uncork kicks, knees and punches with little telegraph.
If the Rountree that fought Anders shows up, his speed will be way too much for Bukauskas and he will chop him down with thunderous leg kicks which will open Bukauskas up for more powerful kicks to the body and head.
However, the Rountree that fought Prachnio will look limited and let Bukauskas dictate where the fight goes. Bukauskas has more strings to his bow and is expected to mix in takedowns, use his reach to pepper his jab and stay light on his feet to avoid the woodchipper that is Rountree.
A couple clean leg kicks from Rountree will change the course of the fight and he has the power to add to his highlight reel, but we expect Bukauskas to come in with a smart game plan and tire Rountree out with his movement and takedowns leading to a late finish.
Prediction: Bukauskas via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Rountree via KO/TKO
LUIGI VENDRAMINI VS PADDY PIMBLETT
Luigi Vendramini (9-2) was hot property in 2018, unbeaten with four knockouts and submissions to his name. He was obviously desperate for his UFC debut of just has a huge pair on him as he accepted a fight on two week’s notice and moved up to welterweight to fight Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. He ended up eating a flying knee on his way to suffering his first knockout and loss however, he bounced back in true Vendramini fashion with a blistering knockout over Jessin Ayari. He then met Fares Ziam in June but lost a majority decision to suffer his second loss.
Paddy Pimblett (16-3) finally makes his UFC debut after rejecting a couple offers. The Cage Warriors star has only lost twice in his last 14 fights. The first of those came against Nad Narimani (2017) losing a unanimous decision. He responded with an incredible flying triangle on Alexis Savvidis (2018) but then lost another unanimous decision, this time to Soren Bak (2018). However, he is back on a winning march with a TKO over Decky Dalton (2020) and his seventh submission over Davide Martinez five months ago.
PREDICTION
They both have a variety of finishes in the bank, but this should turn into a striker vs grappler match-up. Pimblett is confident on the feet, but Vendramini is a lot more threatening. He can be reckless, but he possesses a lot of power and has killer instinct.
Pimblett will be there to hit and if he tests his ego on the feet, Vendramini will dominate the exchanges and will keep tagging the scouser until he falls. So, expect Pimblett to throw a few flashy strikes, but as soon as he gets hit, he will shoot for the takedown.
Pimblett is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and needs to get the fight to the floor. Vendramini is also a quality grappler so it will be exciting to see them tangle on the mat.
On paper, Vendramini should have the edge here, but this will be a very even scrap unless Pimblett decides to stand for three rounds. As the Brazilian is the underdog, he is a great bet.
Prediction: Vendramini via Decision
Value Bet: Vendramini via KO/TKO or Submission
MOLLY MCCANN VS JI YEON KIM
Liverpool’s own, Molly McCann (10-4) heads back to the APEX hoping to prevent a three-fight skid. After the colossal anti-climax that was her UFC debut on home turf, she went on an impressive three-fight win streak. She earnt three unanimous decisions over Priscilla Cachoeira (2019), Ariane Lipski (2019) and Diana Belbita (2019) after getting submitted by Gillian Robertson. She then ran into Taila Santos last year who earnt a dominant unanimous decision and Lara Procopio made it two-in-a-row seven months ago.
Ji Yeon Kim (9-3-2) steps out for her annual fight. She is 3-3 in the UFC and has not been anywhere near as active as she would have liked since making her debut in 2017. She lost a unanimous decision to Lucie Pudilova and replied during a more active year with two split decision wins over Justine Kish (2018) and Melinda Fabian (2018) but then lost one against Antonina Shevchenko (2018). She returned to disable Nadia Kassem (2019) with a brilliant body punch but is coming off another unanimous decision to Alexa Grasso a year ago.
PREDICTION
McCann has the pressure of getting cut by the UFC, but we are backing her to earn a decision here. Her last two opponents, especially Santos are on a different level to Kim and McCann will be able to deliver a much better account of herself. Mainly because Kim is not a wrestler.
Kim has decent jiu-jitsu, but she is a striker by trade and with a significant 10-inch reach advantage, she should be able to keep McCann at a distance with her jab and be able to offload combinations without getting hit.
McCann is a solid boxer and will go toe-to-toe with Kim, but her movement will need to be on point to get into the pocket and offload and find the chin. If the Korean starts to land we can expect McCann to shoot in for a takedown.
In all, we expect a fun back and forth fight on the feet as well as trading takedowns as their defence is mediocre at best. If Kim can keep McCann at a distance utilising her reach, she can sway the judges, but we feel McCann’s aggressiveness and takedowns should get the job done.
Prediction: McCann via Decision
JACK SHORE VS LIUDVIK SHOLINIAN
Jack Shore (14-0) walks out for his fourth UFC fight still protecting his unbeaten record. He cleaned up the Cage Warriors scene winning the bantamweight title with a TKO over Mike Ekundayo and defending it against Scott Malone with a submission before getting the call-up. He submitted Nohelin Hernandez and Aaron Phillips to kickstart his UFC account and is coming off a hard-fought split decision over Hunter Azure back in April. His only problem has been his inactivity fighting once a year since his debut.
Said Nurmagomedov and Zviad Lazishvili pulled out of a fight with Shore so, up steps Liudvik Sholinian (9-1-1) fresh on The Ultimate Fighter. He lost to the eventual winner Ricky Turcios in the semi’s after causing a huge upset and earning a unanimous decision over the tournament favourite and first pick – Mitch Raposo. Prior to the tournament he was riding a four-fight win streak for a variety of promotions and has a golden opportunity to earn a few more UFC fights.
PREDICTION
Sholinian’s performance against Raposo was very impressive. He is a very tough wrestler, but Shore’s bread and butter is his grappling. The Welshman has good cardio and is relentless with takedown attempts and is extremely dangerous on the mat aggressively hunting submissions.
Their grappling could cancel each other out for the first round, but this is a tough debut for Sholiniian and it will only be a matter of time before the tide turns. The longer the fight does stay on the feet, the more you have to back Shore. He is not known for his striking, but he will have the edge over the Ukrainian and be able to land a lot of shots.
Sholinian will make this a gritty fight and his durability should take this to the bell, but his strengths are likely to be cancelled out by Shore.
Prediction: Shore via Decision
CHARLES JOURDAIN VS JULIAN EROSA
Charles Jourdain (11-3-1) returns to the APEX after a vintage TKO win. His UFC start has been a mixed bag so far going 2-2-1 but one factor that has been consistent is the excitement he brings. He lost a unanimous decision to Desmond Green on his debut but responded by pulling off a huge upset by knocking out Doo Ho Choi. He then met Andre Fili losing a razor thin split decision before another tight and thrilling battle with Josh Culibao that ended in a draw. He is now coming off a brilliant third round TKO over Marcelo Rojo who is also on the card.
Julian Erosa (25-9) is still hanging in the UFC. He is enjoying a third stint which started perfectly by stepping up on short notice to submit the heavy favourite Sean Woodson last year. He then fought Nate Landwehr and landed a hellacious knee in the first round to earn his 11th career knockout. However, he got a taste of his own medicine back in June getting TKO’d by Seung Woo Choi and now has a UFC record of 3-5.
PREDICTION
This is good matchmaking by the UFC and we should be in for a fun scrap. Jourdain is a very slick striker and Erosa always comes to bang with dangerous jiu-jitsu. Out of their combined 36 wins, three of them have gone to a decision which all fell to Erosa.
Jourdain is the more technical striker with an array of flashy kicks, but he will be giving up a five and a half-inch reach and four-inch height advantage. That said, Erosa can be reckless in the striking exchanges and Jourdain will be able to pick him off and counter whenever he rushes in.
Jourdain has the edge on the feet and when he starts to land, we can expect Erosa to try and tie the Canadian up and work on a submission. He has a clear grappling advantage and needs to leave his ego in the locker room and try and take Jourdain down.
Erosa usually sets up his takedowns by rushing forward, throwing looping shots and Jourdain has the class to pick him off. Considering Jourdain’s striking and the five knockout losses on Erosa’s record, we are leaning towards a Jourdain knockout, but Erosa is always worth a punt as an underdog.