UFC Vegas 37 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 37? Saturday 18th September, 2021 - 22:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 37? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 37? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 37 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 37? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
ANTHONY SMITH VS RYAN SPANN
Anthony Smith (35-16) somehow headlines his seventh UFC event although he has won his last two fights. Jimmy Crute was very unfortunate after his foot decided to stop working after Smith caught a nerve with a leg kick, but Smith left no stone unturned five months prior in November submitting Devin Clark in the first round. Those wins came in response to a miserable 2020 getting mauled and TKO’d by Golver Teixeira and outpointed by Aleksandar Rakic.
Ryan Spann (19-6) headlines for the first time coming off a ‘performance of the night’. He made quick work of Misha Cirkunov finishing him in the first round to seal his fifth career knockout. It was the perfect response to getting ‘Travis Browne’d’ by Johnny Walker in a fight he should have put to bed. That knockout loss snapped an extremely impressive eight-fight win streak including four UFC dubs and now he is hoping to build another streak.
PREDICTION
These guys match up similarly physically with Spann boasting a three-inch reach advantage They have both dabbled between middleweight and light heavyweight but they have found their home at 205 lbs.
This is the best opponent Spann has faced so far in his career although it really depends on what Smith turns up. He is very inconsistent, but he is capable of running through and submitting someone of the class of Alexander Gustafsson but getting simply embarrassed by Teixeira. He is a good striker and black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but if he is not motivated, Spann has the finishing ability to humble him.
Spann should look to be the aggressor and set up heavy shots with his jab like he did to Walker who he dropped twice. If Spann is composed and comes in with a game plan he can hurt Smith early and conduct the tempo.
Smith has the experience to avoid Spann’s strengths on the feet with leg kicks. If he can chop Spann down before he eats the jab, then he can conduct the tempo himself. If he does, we can expect Smith to clinch up, spit out nasty elbows and work on a takedown.
Spann has good jiu-jitsu, but it is not on the level of Smith and if this fight goes past the third round his cardio will be tested and Smith can capitalize by wearing him down and even wrapping up a submission himself.
If Smith is on, he could make this look easy but if he is not motivated Spann could collect the biggest win of his career.
Prediction: Smith via Submission
Value Bet: Spann via KO/TKO
ION CUTELABA VS DEVIN CLARK
One of the most exciting light heavyweights Ion Cutelaba (15-6-1(1)) returns for his second show of the year. He has had very mixed fortunes in the UFC going 4-5-1 but he has lost to absolute beasts including Misha Cirkunov (2016), Jared Cannonier (2016), Glover Teixeira (2019) and Magomed Ankalaev. When he is on, it is usually a first round knockout and he looked good in his last fight in May, but so did the experienced striker Dustin Jacoby who fought to a valiant draw.
Devin Clark (12-5) has suffered all his losses in the UFC and is (6-5) now but he he has shown a little more consistency than Cutelaba. He has grinded out the likes of Mike Rodriguez (2018), Darko Stosic (2019), Dequan Townsend (2020) and Alonzo Menifield (2020) in unanimous decisions, but he has struggled at the upper level especially against finishers. Blachowicz submitted him (2017), he got knocked out by Aleksandar Rakic (2018), submitted again by Ryan Spann (2019) and most recently against Anthony Smith in November last year.
PREDICTION
Cutelaba is a maniac on the feet, and we can’t see Clark wanting to have anything to do with him in a striking battle. This is a similar match-up to Clark’s fight with Menifield who is also a powerhouse. Clark avoided the threat by resorting to his wrestling and effectively grinding out a decision.
The difference is that Cutelaba is a quality grappler coming from a sambo and judo background. He is expected to use these skills as defence and the battle here will be his takedown defence vs Clark’s wrestling.
Cutelaba is very explosive and obviously most effective in the first round which includes his striking as well as his takedown defence. So, Clark needs to get through the first round and bank on his cardio to wear Cutelaba down.
This is hard to call mainly due to Cutelaba’s consistency, but we are backing the Moldovan to find a finish. Clark has not looked good against natural finishers but if this goes past the first round, he is definitely the smart bet for a decision, especially as the underdog.
Prediction: Cutelaba via KO/TKO
ARIANE LIPSKI VS MANDY BOHM
Ariane Lipski (13-7) replaces Taila Santos hoping to bounce back from two knockouts on the trot. She started her UFC career with two defeats back in 2019 which snapped a nine-fight win streak. She lost unanimous decisions to Joanne Calderwood and Molly McCann but then pulled a couple dubs back with a unanimous decision over Isabela de Padua and then putting on her best performance wrapping Luana Carolina up in a ruthless kneebar. However, she is now coming off two disappointing TKO losses to Antonina Shevchenko and Montana De La Rosa so badly needs a reply here.
She welcomes Mandy Bohm (7-0(1)) to the UFC who is on an impressive seven-fight win streak. Her first six pro fights were under her local German MMA Championship banner and in 2019 she appeared on a TKO Major League card which was headlined by Ciryl Gane. She submitted Jade Masson-Wong and earnt a call-up to Bellator where she earnt a unanimous decision over Griet Eeckhout. A few cancelled fights later, she meets Lipski in the APEX.
PREDICTION
Bohm has not been very active although she has the momentum and slight reach advantage. Lipski has decent jiu-jitsu and power in her hands but has poor takedown defence. However, fortunately for her, Bohm is expected to keep the fight on the feet as she is an excellent striker.
So, this should be an exciting striking battle with a lot of clinch work where either fighter can land damage. Bohm will give Lipski a very tough fight, but the Brazilian’s experience will be important here. As long as she is patient, feels the German out and avoids any wrestling, she has the skill and power to win the stand-up battle.
Prediction: Lipski via Decision
NATE MANESS VS TONY GRAVELY
Nate Maness (13-1) heads back to the APEX for the third time hoping to make it three from three in the UFC. He steamrolled his way to 10-0 before getting folded by Taylor Lapilus in 2019 which was on a TKO promotion card headlined by Ciryl Gane. Maness responded perfectly by knocking out Kellen VanCamp for Hardrock MMA and kicked off his UFC career six months later in August last year with a unanimous decision over Johnny Munoz Jr and followed it up with a submission over Luke Sanders in November.
Tony Gravely (21-6) also heads to the APEX gunning for a third win in the UFC. Although he lost his debut getting submitted by Brett Johns who snapped a seven-fight win streak which included knockouts over Drako Rodriguez and Kris Moutinho. He got his UFC account up and running squeaking past Geraldo de Freitas in a split decision and put on a much more convincing performance against Anthony Birchak in April finishing him in the second round via TKO.
PREDICTION
Both men are solid wrestlers so it will be interesting to see if they back their own skills or they cancel each other out forcing a stand-up battle.
Maness is a big bantamweight having fought up at lightweight and even won championships. He will boast a five-inch height and three-inch reach advantage but Gravely will make up for the size discrepancy with his power.
He is a very strong wrestler and if Maness decides to stand and try to piece him up from range, Gravely will not hesitate to close the distance and go for a takedown. He is arguably the better wrestler and if he can secure a takedown in each round and assume significant control time, he will sway the judges.
Prediction: Gravely via Decision
JOAQUIN BUCKLEY VS ANTONIO ARROYO
2020 was one hell of a year for Joaquin Buckley (12-4). He made his debut but got knocked out by Kevin Holland and replied with the most spectacular knockout in UFC history delivering an electrifying spinning back kick on Impa Kasanganay. He followed that up by handing Jordan Wright the first loss of his career with a TKO. However, he then received a taste of his own medicine ending up on Alessio Di Chirico’s highlight reel with an incredible head kick knockout in the first round.
Unfortunately, Antonio Arroyo (9-4) has not filled any of his potential since joining the UFC. Multiple cancelled fights have not helped but his grappling and cardio has let him down. He lost a unanimous decision to Andre Muniz on his debut which does not look like a bad result considering the jiu-jitsu ace recently broke Jacare Souza’s arm. However, he lost another disappointing unanimous decision to Deron Winn over a year later in December despite possessing a seven-inch height and three-inch reach advantage.
PREDICTION
Buckley is a tough opponent but thankfully Arroyo is not fighting a grappler and we may finally see what he is made of. He is a ferocious striker with thunderous leg kicks and Buckley also has devastating power so this could be a barnburner.
The Brazilian will have a five-inch height advantage but will be giving up a two and a half inches in reach. Arroyo needs to pace himself and strike from range opening up with calf kicks to disable Buckley.
Buckley on the other hand will try and get to work in the pocket and if he succeeds it could be another miserable night for Arroyo. Buckley is extremely explosive and not known for his gas tank but if this fight spills into the later rounds, you have to back Buckley.
This is a much better opportunity for Arroyo and there is a lot of value in him especially as a significant underdog. That said, we are backing Buckley, but the smart money is on the Brazilian.
Prediction: Buckley via KO/TKO
ARMAN TSARUKYAN VS CHRISTOS GIAGOS
We have touted Arman Tsarukyan (16-2) as the dark horse in the lightweight division since he made his debut in the UFC. He actually lost his first appearance, but he arrived riding a 12-fight win streak and took on Islam Makhachev whom many believe it is just a matter of time before he at least competes for the title. It is one of the hardest debuts you can receive in the division, but in defeat, he impressed by going toe-to-toe in the grappling exchanges even securing his own takedown. He lost a unanimous decision in the end, but he has responded with three of his own adding Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Davi Ramos and Matt Frevola to the win column.
Christos Giagos (19-8) was also welcomed to the UFC by a beast. Welcomed back in fact, getting submitted by the current champion Charles Oliveira back in 2018 and responded with two unanimous decisions over Mizuto Hirota and Damir Hadzovic but then suffered his second loss in the UFC losing a unanimous decision to Drakkar Klose. However, he is back on track with two impressive wins on the bounce – another unanimous decision over Carlton Minus and a brilliant submission over Sean Soriano in May picking up a ‘performance of the night’ bonus in the process.
PREDICTION
Giagos has proven his worth in his second stint in the UFC and he will boast the size advantage over Tsarukyan. However, the Armenian is expected to ragdoll Giagos around and put on a suffocating pace until he wilts.
Giagos will be dangerous for the first round, but Tsarukyan only needs one takedown to start draining his gas tank. Come the second round, Tsarukyan is likely to also win the exchanges on the feet and he should be able to control wherever the fight goes.
All Tsarukyan’s wins in the UFC so far have come via unanimous decisions but that is only because they were all against good grapplers. Giagos is a level below in terms of wrestling, jiu-jitsu and cardio and we expect him to get thrown around, worn out and submitted by the third round.
Prediction: Tsarukyan via Submission
IMPA KASANGANAY VS CARLSTON HARRIS
Impa Kasanganay (9-1) responded perfectly to falling victim to the most spectacular knockout in UFC history. Kasanganay was sitting at 8-0 after his unanimous decision win and successful debut over Maki Pitolo. He was becoming a top prospect in the middleweight division but then caught Joaquin Buckley’s leg before turning into a highlight reel on repeat. It was an incredible knockout, but it was unfortunate it happened to such a gent. However, he returned in April at welterweight which was a surprise considering he was diced at 185 lbs. Nonetheless, he was handed another tough opponent in Sasha Palatnikov and submitted him in the second round.
The UFC have handed him another stud in Carlston Harris (16-4). After knocking out Claudio Rocha (2019) and Alexsandro Santos Rodrigues (2020) for Shooto Brazil, he caught Saygid Izagakhmaev in a brilliant brabo choke which led to his first appearance in the big time. He met Christian Aguilera in May for his debut and secured an even more impressive submission – an anaconda choke in the first round to kick off his promising UFC career.
PREDICTION
Kasanganay could be an absolute force at welterweight. His wrestling was decent 15 lbs up and if his weight cut goes smoothly, he will have the ability to overwhelm welterweights with his power and athleticism alone.
This is a very interesting match-up stylistically as Harris has tricky jiu-jitsu and a dangerous clinch so it will be interesting to see how Kasanganay approaches this. Takedown attempts will leave his neck exposed so is expected to rely on his boxing, to feel himself into the fight at least.
He should edge the stand-up battle and he has the wrestling to subdue Harris. It may not be worth the risk as the Guyana native can wrap up a choke in a flash but we are backing Kasanganay to grow into the fight with more volume and landing more damage which will leave Harris susceptible to getting taken down for some important control time.
Prediction: Kasanganay via Decision
PANNIE KIANZAD VS RAQUEL PENNINGTON
Pannie Kianzad (15-5) is in the form of her life right now. We first saw her on The Ultimate Fighter 28 and she made it to the final only to get submitted by Macy Chiasson. She picked up a win for a local promotion before returning to the UFC but she lost again losing a unanimous decision to Julia Avila raising questions of whether she could make it in the big leagues. However, she has answered them winning four unanimous decisions in a row over Jessica-Rose Clark, Bethe Correia, Sijara Eubanks and Alexis Davis.
Raquel Pennington (11-8) is 2-3 in her last five since that terrible injury in an ATV accident. She got thrown straight back into the wolves getting marbleised and TKO’d by the champ Amanda Nunes and then outpointed by Germaine de Randamie. She responded with an impressive unanimous decision over Irene Aldana but fell short against a top contender again losing a rematch and unanimous decision to Holly Holm. She returned five months later in June last year to pick up her seventh unanimous decision against Marion Reneau.
PREDICTION
Pennington will try and grind out another unanimous decision with her wrestling and pinning Kianzad up against the fence. Kianzad is strong but if Pennington gets her hands on her, she is likely to wind down the clock to win each round.
Unless Kianzad bursts out the gate swinging, this will turn into a very boring fight spent in the clinch. Kianzad has all the momentum but unless you are a top tier striker or have exceptional takedown defence, Pennington will suffocate you with her grappling and that is what we expect to happen.
Prediction: Pennington via Decision
MIKE RODRIGUEZ VS TAFON NCHUKWI
Mike Rodriguez (11-6(1)) could be walking out for his last UFC fight. He is an exciting fighter, but he is now 2-4(1) in the UFC and that ‘no contest’ was originally another loss to John Allan Arte before he failed a drugs test. His only wins were quality knockouts, but they were against Adam Milstead (2018) who retired after the fight and Marcin Prachnio (2020) which marked a three-fight skid. After the brutal knockout over the Pole, Rodriguez has been submitted twice – Ed Herman (2020) and Danilo Marques (2021) and is desperate for a win now.
After knocking out his first four victims, Tafon Nchukwi (5-1) suffered the first loss of his pro career back in May. It was a majority decision against Jun Yong Park which came after his successful UFC debut against Jamie Pickett (2020) when he went to a decision for the first time getting the nod from all the judges. His knockout streak included a first-round TKO over William Knight (2019) for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships and a ferocious head kick over Al Matavao (2020) on the Contender Series to earn the coveted UFC contract.
PREDICTION
This is good matchmaking as they are both desperate for a win but are both strikers who will not be willing to play it safe. Rodriguez will boast a significant five-and-a-half-inch reach and four-inch height advantage, but Nchukwi will enjoy the speed advantage.
They are both southpaws and we can expect Rodriguez to leverage his reach by keeping Nchukwi at a distance with his jab and front kick trying to pick him off and gradually build up damage. Nchukwi will be looking to set up power shots like we saw in his fight with Matavao with that beautiful head kick.
Nchukwi needs to be calculated in getting into to range as Rodriguez will keep landing his front kicks to the body and he also has a dangerous clinch, so Nchukwi needs to burst into the pocket and get out.
We expect Rodriguez to win the battle at range and in the clinch. Unless Nchukwi lands a Hail Mary or turns into a wrestler, Rodriguez should get the job done which will most likely be a knockout as he has never won a decision before.
Prediction: Rodriguez via KO/TKO
ZHU RONG VS BRANDON JENKINS
Zhu Rong (17-4) heads to the APEX for the first time hoping to make amends after his UFC debut loss. The Wi Lin Feng lightweight champion had virtually fought his whole career for the Chinese promotion and was riding a superb 10-fight win streak that included six knockouts and three submissions. He got called up for his debut in April and was paired with Rodrigo Vargas but dropped a unanimous decision to suffer an unfamiliar defeat.
He was scheduled to fight Dakota Bush, but COVID-19 dragged him off the card a few days out which has given Brandon Jenkins (15-7) the opportunity to make his UFC debut. The self-proclaimed ‘Human Highlight Reel’ is coming off three good wins – a spectacular spinning back elbow knockout over Jordin Hinmam last November and followed it up with a unanimous decision over Aaron Mitchell in March (both for Caged Aggression). He then walked out for the Professional Fighters League three weeks ago and added to the reel with a flying knee on Jacob Kilburn.
PREDICTION
Jenkins has little to lose taking this fight on a few days’ notice which will make him even more dangerous. He is an aggressive striker with good cardio so Rong cannot take him lightly.
They are both big lightweights and Rong will not take a step back either so we should be in for an exciting battle on the feet. Rong should be able to win the majority of exchanges as long as he is prepared for Jenkins’ flare. He loves a flying knee and wait for him to torque his hips to set up a spinning elbow.
If Rong can stick to the fundamentals on the feet and utilise his footwork to avoid the flashy strikes and counter, he can bag the rounds.
Jenkins is certainly worth a punt considering the odds especially if he can fire off his whipping leg kicks early to slow Rong down. Taking on Rong on just a few days’ notice should be an order too tall but there is value on him.