UFC Vegas 35 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 35? Sunday 29th August, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 35? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 35? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 35 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 35? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
EDSON BARBOZA VS GIGA CHIKADZE
The weapon that is Edson Barboza (22-9) is back and on a thoroughly deserved two-fight win streak. After accepting a fight with every lightweight murderer and their dog, Barboza lost four from five at one point with losses to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Kevin Lee, Justin Gaethje and Paul Felder sandwiching a brutalisation of Dan Hooker. He then got ripped to ribbons down at featherweight meeting Dan Ige for his induction to the division. He looked great but was robbed in a split decision loss to lose five of his last six. Miserable form, but he displayed his class by bouncing back with a unanimous decision win over Makwan Amirkhani and finishing the granite Shane Burgos with a beautiful punch to the liver back in May.
He meets fellow slick striker Giga Chikadze (13-2). One of many exciting prospects emerging out of Georgia, Chikadze is on an impressive eight-fight win streak and has enjoyed a dream start to his UFC career. He kicked off with two split decisions over Brandon Davis and Jamall Emmers which was great experience. He then earnt unanimous decisions over Irwin Rivera (who was a late replacement) and Omar Morales (handing him the first loss of his career). He then TKO’d Jamey Simmons (another late replacement) and is coming off his biggest win which was a beautiful knockout and destruction of Cub Swanson.
PREDICTION
This is a mouth-watering match-up between two of the most technical and exciting strikers in the division. Chikadze’s MMA experience does not compare to Barboza’s but he has 44 kickboxing fights in the bank. Swanson is way past his prime and besides Morales, he has not fought any top talents, so it is great to see him awarded with this fight.
He will not be boasting his usual reach advantage and will not have fought anyone as quick as Barboza. He will still try and be aggressive throwing 1-2’s and kicks from his southpaw stance. He will be calculated trying to manipulate the guard of Barboza and set up his patented ‘Giga kick’ to the liver.
We have seen Barboza’s arsenal several times now and it will never get boring. He has arguably the best kicks in the game snapping a full array of kicks with zero telegraph. His boxing is also deadly, and like the Georgian, he sets up the liver strike, but with his hands which has been extremely effective as we saw in the Hooker and Burgos fights.
This will be a chess match of striking and an absolute spectacle. Their defence will be the key here. Chikadze has a 60% striking defence and Barboza 59% which is very good considering the competition he has faced including wrestlers such as Nurmagomedov and Lee who have rained down punches on the ground.
They are both assassins, but their defence should push this to a decision. It will be fiercely contested, and we can expect a ferocious exchange of kicks. It will be close for sure, but we are backing the more experienced and quicker Barboza who will have more pop to his strikes and more aggression to sway the judges.
Prediction: Barboza via Decision
BRYAN BATTLE VS GILBERT URBINA LOWDOWN
The last pick on team Volkanovski, Bryan Battle (5-1) has made his way into the final on a remarkable run. He earnt a unanimous decision over Kemran Lachinov to set up a semi-final clash with first pick and tournament favourite Andre Petroski. He fended off the takedown attempts as Petroski began to tire and landed destructive blows before wrapping up a shock submission on an exhausted favourite. These fights have injected even more confidence as he rides a four-fight win streak with three submissions and a knockout.
Tresean Gore was his dance partner in the final but heartbreakingly for him, he injured his knee. His loss is Gilbert Urbina’s (6-1) gain who got knocked out by Gore in the final. Urbina takes his place for a chance to be part of The Ultimate Fighter history. He submitted Micheal Gilmore in the quarter-final and came into the tournament off the back of a unanimous decision over Angelo Trevino for Combate Americas.
PREDICTION
The middleweight final has turned out to be a very interesting match-up. Battle has three submissions and Urbina has two professionally with one knockout each. However, Battle is more of a striker and Urbina a grappler.
Urbina is very confident on the feet, but his fight with Gore on the series would have been a wake-up call. Battle does not have the one-punch knockout power of Gore, but his poison is served in his volume.
Urbina needs to get this fight to the floor, but as we saw on the Petroski fight, Battle has excellent takedown defence, and he will constantly threat with kicks and knees down the middle as Urbina shoots in.
Expect a tight back-and-forth scrap with striking and grappling. We can see either man coming out on top, but we are backing Battle to lift the TUF trophy.
Prediction: Battle via Decision
RICKY TURCIOS VS BRADY HIESTAND
After a worrying start, team Volkanovski rallied to get two of their bantamweights in the final of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF). Ricky Turcious (10-2) is the first half of the match-up after earning action-packed unanimous decisions over Daniel Argueta and Liudvik Sholinian. He is brimming with confidence now after some much-needed activity. He was coming off a brilliant submission win over Kaleb Petereit, but that was in February last year and prior to that he lost a unanimous decision to Boston Salmon (2017), earnt one back over Josh Paiva (2018) and a knockout loss to Leomana Martinez (2018).
Brady Hiestand (5-1) was also not as active as he would have liked leading into TUF. He got two fights in 2019, notching his second professional TKO over Jeff Coleman but then suffered his first loss and TKO courtesy of Chad Anheliger and then only fought once last year submitting Shane Sargent in February. This tournament has also served him well earning a hard-fought split decision over the most experienced fighter in the house, Josh Rettinghouse and following it up with an epic TKO over Vince Murdock.
PREDICTION
Judging by their fights in the house, this should be a fun, gritty war. We have a clash of styles here as Turcious is more comfortable on the feet and is a very dynamic striker whereas Hiestand is a wrestler. Turcious likes to grapple but he needs to keep the fight on the feet and build up the volume with his striking advantage.
As we saw in the Rettinghouse and Murdoch fight, Hiestand’s wrestling and ground-and-pound is a force, but his cardio is an issue. He needs to pace himself but still rely on his strengths and smother Turcious when he can.
This will be a very scrappy fight and we expect Hiestand to win the first round, but Turcious should grow into it. If he can make Hiestand work hard for each takedown, he can wear him out, steal the second round and finish strong in the third.
If Hiestand’s cardio has improved, he can overwhelm Turcios by taking him down with ease and keep up a pace into the second round at least. Hiestand was the last pick but caused the upset in both of his fights in the house and he is the underdog again here, so he is the smart bet.
However, there is only so much your cardio can improve in a short amount of time and despite Turcious’ suspect takedown defence, we expect him to steal two rounds and earn a tight decision.
Prediction: Turcious via Decision
Value Bet: Hiestand via Decision
KEVIN LEE VS DANIEL RODRIGUEZ
Kevin Lee (18-6) is one of the best examples of a ‘tweener’ where his perfect fighting weight lies between two weight classes. He has always struggled to cut to the lightweight mark of 155 lbs although it was hard to notice when he steamrolled and submitted the likes of Magomed Mustafaev, Francisco Trinaldo and Michael Chiesa. However, his form has been patchy to say the least since. He got submitted by Tony Ferguson, came back to grind out and TKO Edson Barboza but lost a unanimous decision to Al Iaquinta. He then tried his hand up at welterweight but Rafael dos Anjos throw him back down to lightweight with a fourth-round submission. Lee then pulled off one of the most brutal head kick knockouts in UFC history against Gregor Gillespie but is coming off another submission loss to the current champ Charles Oliveira.
Daniel Rodriguez’s (15-2) only blip in consistency came against Nicolas Dalby in his fourth UFC fight back in November last year. Besides that unanimous decision loss, he has continued to impress. He set the benchmark high on his UFC debut, stepping up on short notice to submit the veteran Tim Means. He followed that up with a unanimous decision over Gabriel Green and starching Dwight Grant. He bounced back from the loss with a classy unanimous decision over Mike Perry and is coming off his eighth knockout victory which came over Preston Parsons in July.
PREDICTION
It is always hard to predict how Lee will turn up. He seems to have the same chance of being humbled and creating a highlight reel finish. At welterweight, the chances of being humbled increase especially when he was scheduled to fight Sean Brady.
Rodriguez steps up providing a different stylistic match-up. He is the better striker and will be the bigger, taller man, but will be giving up a three-inch reach advantage. Rodriguez is an excellent striker and incredibly durable. Despite the head kick from hell Lee delivered, you have to back Rodriguez in the stand-up battle who should be able to land on Lee relatively easily from his southpaw stance.
That kick will still make Rodriguez think and Lee will threaten with leg kicks and his jab. These will serve him well in setting up the takedown. Even though Rodriguez is the bigger man, Lee has the technique and strength to control him on the mat and punce on the back at any opportunity.
Rodriguez has a respectable 83% takedown defence, but he has not fought a wrestler like Lee before. In fact, only Perry and Means are the only fighters who have tried to take him down so it remains to be seen whether he can fend off a fighter like Lee.
Rodriguez has all of the momentum and Lee is coming back from to ACL tears in both knees. They are career threateners and although he has the ability to wrestle Rodriguez for three rounds and pull off a huge win, we are backing the form fighter and natural welterweight Rodriguez who may even pull off the knockout.
Prediction: Rodriguez via KO/TKO
Prediction: Rodriguez to win
ANDRE PETROSKI VS MICHEAL GILMORE
Andre Petroski (5-1) has been gifted another opportunity to earn a UFC contract. He is fresh off the return of The Ultimate Fighter where he got to the semi-finals after submitting Aaron Phillips but the got submitted himself by Bryan Battle. He was one of the favourites going into the tournament after a long and successful amateur career and finishing all of his opponents fighting for the Art of War Cage Fighting promotion (two submissions and three knockouts). He got TKO’d on his Legacy Fighting Alliance debut by Aaron Jeffery in October last year and under performed on the series but has been given another chance to prove his worth.
Micheal Gilmore (6-3) did not quite make the cut to make it on the tournament initially however, he quit his job and stayed in Las Vegas after the try-outs hoping to get lucky. A ballsy move, but a move that Dana White loves and after Miles Hunsinger injured his knee, White immediately drafted Gilmore in. He fought Gilbert Urbina in the quarters and we saw why he did not make the cut as he got taken down straight away and submitted in the first round. Professionally, he is coming off three wins – a decision over Eric Lyon (Pinnacle Fighting Organisation), a knockout over Ken Hunt (Carlos Llinas International Productions) and a unanimous decision over Perry Stargel (Warrior Xtreme Cagefighting)
PREDICTION
We feel Gilmore has been matched up with Gilmore, more as a reward for risking everything and stepping up to replace an injured fighter in the series and this is a terrible match-up for him.
Petroski is a very strong wrestler with great jiu-jitsu and Gilmore has poor takedown defence. We can see Petroski ragdolling Gilmore around before wrapping up a submission. Gilmore is a powerful striker and if he paces himself and makes it into the third round, he can capitalise on Petroski’s gas tank, or lack of.
If he makes this a scrap by landing volume and getting back up from takedowns, he can gas Petroski out, but we expect Petroski will get the job done before that happens.
Prediction: Petroski via Submission
MAKHMUD MURADOV VS GERALD MEERSCHAERT
We need to see more Makhmud Muradov (25-6). He is a star in Uzbekistan and the Czech Republic with buckets of talent but has only fought twice since his UFC debut three years ago. He made his long-awaited entrance while riding an 11-fight win streak including nine knockouts and two middleweight titles on the local scene. He stepped up on short notice for a very tough welcome in the form of Alessio Di Chirico and pulled off a unanimous decision. He followed that up by punching Trevor Smith’s soul out of his body but in 2020 he had four fights with different opponents fall through. He finally got back in the cage to meet Andrew Sanchez in January and added another impressive and violent knockout.
Gerald Meerschaert (32-14) hasn’t had the most successful UFC career, but it has been entertaining. He is 7-6 in the UFC now and only two of those fights have gone to a decision – split decision losses to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders. After the loss to Anders, he bounced back with a quality submission over Deron Winn, but then got knocked out twice in a row. Firstly, by Ian Heinisch and then fed to Khamzat Chimaev who buried him in a few seconds. However, in true Meerschaert style, he replied with a ‘performance of the night’ and submission over Bartosz Fabinski.
PREDICTION
It seems like Meerschaert is being fed to another prospect. Although, as we know, the veteran is always dangerous. Muradov is clearly the better striker. He is very technical and will have a significant speed advantage. He will look to create space and use his movement to set up power shots in all limbs.
Meerschaert will be well-aware of this and with the damage his chin has taken recently, he cannot afford to eat any clean shots as he will be waking up to a doctor’s flashlight. Muradov is on a different level on the feet, and he has to try and take this fight to the floor.
Unfortunately for Meerschaert, Muradov also has great takedown defence and should be able to shrug off the majority of takedown attempts. However, we have a feeling Muradov could add to his highlight reel before Meerschaert even gets close to him.
Prediction: Muradov via KO/TKO
ALESSIO DI CHIRICO VS ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN
Alessio Di Chirico (13-5) was originally scheduled to welcome Aliaskhab Khizriev to the UFC but was left without an opponent after the Russian got injured. However, Antonio Braga Neto inevitably pulled out of his fight for the second time in two weeks to save this bout. Great news for Di Chirico who is desperate to gain some more momentum. He dropped three decisions in a row to Kevin Holland, Makhmud Muradov and Zak Cummings which were baffling unanimous calls from the judges who must have been on their phones. He was then paired with the surging Joaquin Buckley and gave him a taste of his own medicine by sealing a highlight reel head kick knockout.
Abdul Razak Alhassan (10-4) was lined up for Neto and has thankfully accepted the change in opponent. When he was sitting at 10-1, it was a question of how far he could go. He had knocked out every single opponent in the first round and his only loss was a split decision to Omari Akhmedov. He controversially TKO’d Sabah Homasi and then violently erased him in the rematch followed by an obliteration of Niko Price. However, Alhassan is now on a three-fight skid losing a unanimous decision to Mounir Lazzez, getting starched by Khaos Williams and coming off another unanimous decision loss to Jacob Malkoun. Now, it is a question of whether he can still make it in the UFC.
PREDICTION
Alhassan deserves a lot of credit for taking this fight as Di Chirico is a much tougher opponent. Neto had not fought in over three years and not won over seven. Di Chirico is a top talent, and we can ignore his recent form as some of those decision losses could have easily gone his way.
The Italian has a lot more strings to his bow and is extremely well-rounded. He is a top striker and grappler. Alhassan would have been working on his takedown defence during his training camp, but it is unlikely to be enough to avoid getting dragged down to the canvas.
Alhassan is expected to be calm but swing wildly whenever Di Chirico is in range. He has the explosiveness and power to knock him out with one hit, but Di Chirico should have too much nous and experience to get caught and is expected to wear Alhassan down with his grappling to earn a comfortable decision or even a late finish.
Di Chirico is understandably the favourite, but Alhassan’s power always makes him a live dog.
Prediction: Di Chirico via Decision
Value Bet: Alhassan via KO/TKO
DUSTIN JACOBY VS DARREN STEWART
Dustin Jacoby (14-5-1) was expected to make his third appearance of the year against UFC debutant Askar Mozharov, but is just thankful he still has a fight after the Ukrainian dropped out. Thankful, as he has another chance to extend his unbeaten run. He got the UFC call-up after earning a unanimous decision over Ty Flores on the Contender Series and kicked off his career with a bang by chopping down and finishing Justin Ledet in the first round. He followed that up with an impressive unanimous decision over Maxim Grishin and then met his most dangerous opponent to date - Ion Cutelaba and fought to a valiant draw.
Darren Stewart (12-7(2)) is the man with the courage to take the fight and will be moving up to light heavyweight again. The middleweight is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Eryk Anders at 205 lbs which was a rematch after their original ‘no contest’ back in March. Anders was winning the fight until he landed an illegal knee but made sure of the win three months later. That loss made it 1-3(1) in his last five with his win being that surprise submission over Maki Pitolo. Stewart’s UFC career could be hanging by a thread, but he will have earnt a lot or brownie points stepping up to take this fight.
PREDICTION
This will be an exciting striking battle. Stewart will be giving up some size in this weight class and Jacoby will possess a four-inch reach and three-inch height advantage. Stewart comes from a taekwondo base and Jacoby a kickboxing base, but they are well-versed everywhere.
Jacoby will try and utilise his reach and chop down Stewart with leg kicks and popping him with his jab. Stewart will answer back in kind and really needs to leverage his speed and movement to counter and offload in the pocket.
We may see a bit of clinch work here mainly instigated from Stewart, but the majority of this fight will play out at kickboxing range which will suit Jacoby. Stewart is very durable and should take this to the bell, but we are leaning towards Jacoby to maintain the distance and outland Stewart. This will be close, and Stewart will always be a threat, but Jacoby gets the nod.
Prediction: Jacoby via Decision
JJ ALDRICH VS VANESSA DEMOPOULOS
JJ Aldrich (9-4) heads to the APEX for the second time this year and is hoping to make it two wins on the trot. She earnt a split decision win over Courtney Casey to bounce back from a split decision loss to Sabina Mazo. She is now 5-3 in the UFC and 2-2 at flyweight including a TKO loss to Maycee Barber (2019) and a unanimous decision win over Lauren Mueller. She was originally scheduled to fight Tracy Cortez, but fortunately for her, the in-form contender dropped out with an injury.
This has given Vanessa Demopoulos (6-3) a chance to make her UFC debut. She is a natural strawweight who has applied her trade for the Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA). She earnt a quality win over Sam Hughes a year ago, wrapping her up in an inverted triangle but then lost decisions to Cory McKenna on the Contender Series and Loopy Godinez back at LFA. However, she is coming off her first TKO win which she dished out to Cynthia Arceo in March.
PREDICTION
This is a much kinder match-up for Aldrich who was preparing for the bigger, stronger grappler Cortez who is marching towards title contention. Demopoulos will be giving up a lot of size with a five-inch reach and four-inch height advantage.
We could see Aldrich put that size to use with a spot of grappling especially as Demopoulos has suspect takedown defence. However, she is a striker by trade and is expected to let her limbs go and keep the fight on the feet.
Aldrich comes from a strong taekwondo base and although she does not have particularly threatening knockout power, she has brilliant technique as a southpaw and is expected to throw more volume and land the more damaging blows on Demopoulos.
We expect her to earn a decision but Demopoulos is worth a small punt considering she is a massive underdog. Despite being a strawweight, she is in great shape and was actually training with Cortez in camp. She also has good jiu-jitsu, so it will be interesting if the fight hits the deck.
Prediction: Aldrich via Decision
Value Bet: Demopoulos to win
GUIDO CANNETTI VS MANA MARTINEZ
Apart from three fights in 2018, Guido Cannetti (8-5) has struggled to make it to the octagon, let alone win. He made his debut in 2014 and got submitted by Henry Briones. He responded with a unanimous decision over Hugo Viana almost a year later and did not fight again until 2018. He got submitted by Kyuan Ho Kang, won another unanimous decision over Diego Rivas but then got submitted again by Marlon Vera. He returned 16 months later, but Danaa Batgerel piled on more misery with a first-round knockout.
Mario Bautista was lined up for Cannetti, but COVID-19 dragged him off the card giving Mana Martinez (8-2) the opportunity to make his UFC debut. He is an exciting talent with all his wins coming via knockout. His only loss in his last eight was a submission to Drako Rodriguez on the Contender Series. That was in September last year and he has bounced back superbly with knockouts over Casey Jones and Jose Johnson for the Fury Fighting Championship this year.
PREDICTION
As far as short notice UFC debuts go, this is a kind match-up for Martinez. Cannetti is 41 and has not won a fight since May 2018 Martinez has not been fighting bums and has fought all but one of his pro fights for the Legacy Fighting alliance and Fury Fighting Championships. He has even finished Ricky Turcios (2018) who features in the bantamweight final of The Ultimate Fighter which is on the same card.
However, Cannetti will be grateful he is not fighting a submission specialist. Like, Martinez, he prefers to stand and trade although he will be giving up four inches in height and two in reach. Cannetti has a chance if he calls upon his experience and resorts to his wrestling but, we are firmly backing the debutant.
He has the youth, momentum and power to overwhelm the Argentinian and target the damaged chin and in all likelihood, this will be Cannetti’s last fight in the UFC.