UFC Vegas 38 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 38? Saturday 2nd October, 2021 -21:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 38? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 38? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 38 on? BT Sport 3
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 38? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
THIAGO SANTOS VS JOHNNY WALKER
No one saw Thiago Santos (21-9) losing three in a row after he knocked out Eryk Anders, Jimi Manuwa and Jan Blachowicz in a row. That knockout over the current champion at the start of 2019 capped off a brilliant four-fight streak ignited by a unanimous decision over Kevin Holland. David Branch broke up eight wins in a row including knockouts over Jack Hermansson and Anthony Smith down at middleweight. That knockout form earnt him a shot at the light heavyweight ‘GOAT’ giving Jon Jones one of his toughest ever fights taking him to a split decision. That fight took a lot out of Santos including the all ligaments in his knee. He eventually returned 16 months later but got submitted by Glover Teixeira. He fought again in March this year, but he did not look his explosive self losing a unanimous decision to Aleksandar Rakic.
Johnny Walker (18-5) has also suffered a all from grace but more due to the holes in his game opening up as opposed to suffering career threatening injuries. He blasted his way into the UFC on a six-fight win streak and quickly became the most exciting prospect in the division after knocking out Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov in spectacular fashion. He was then handed a huge test in the form of wrestler Corey Anderson, but he shocked the world knocking Walker out. Nikita Krylov then made in two losses in a row with a unanimous decision removing Walker’s ‘prospect’ status and Ryan Spann came close to making it three but Walker rallied back from a huge left hand to earn an amazing comeback knockout courtesy of some Travis Browne elbows.
PREDICTION
This has got fireworks written all over it. Considering their skillsets, the smart play would be to play is safe with lower volume, but it is just not in their nature. Santos is the favourite, but he has not looked the same since his fight with Jones. By the end of the fight, he tore his left ACL, PCL, MCL, meniscus and cracked his tibia. It is remarkable he is able to run again, let alone fight at the highest level.
Less speed and explosiveness swings this more in Walker’s favour who has not lost an inch and his range and dynamism combined with his power is a threat to anyone in the division. His biggest problem is his defence. His erratic style constantly leaves his chin open to counter and Santos has the experience and killer instinct to make him pay in violent fashion.
We expect Santos to be more patient like he was in the Blachowicz fight, but as soon as Walker opens up, Santos will fire. A pre-Jones Santos would be expected to pick Walker off but he has not looked the same fighter.
If Walker incorporates a strategy into his usual chaotic style, he will put his four-inch height and six-inch reach advantage to use on a hesitant Santos. If he is reckless and Santos finds a bit of mojo, he will fire off a lot of kicks and wait to counter as well as offering the odd clinch. Either way, it should be a matter of time before the fireworks ignite.
Prediction: Santos via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Walker via KO/TKO
KEVIN HOLLAND VS KYLE DAUKAUS
The Kevin Holland (21-7) bubble finally popped this year after his his ground game got exposed by Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori who simply wrestled him for five rounds each. He has been the most active fighter in the UFC fighting 12 times since his debut in 2018. 2019 did not end how he would of liked getting submitted by Brendan Allen but 2020 could not have gone better. He fought five times kicking the year off with knockouts over Anthony Hernandez and Joaquin Buckley and followed it up with a split decision over Darren Stewart. He then TKO’d Charlie Ontiveros with a slam and capped the year off with his biggest win which was a crazy knockout off his back against Jacare Souza.
Kyle Daukaus (10-2) has also been active over the years. He won the vacant Cage Fury FC middleweight tile in 2019 by submitting Jonavin Webb and then won a unanimous decision on the Contender Series before making his first defence of the title. He submitted Stephen Regman and repeated the feat against Nolan Norwoof before finally getting the call-up. He was a short-notice replacement against Allen and put up a valiant effort but lost a unanimous decision. With more time to prepare, he outpointed Dustin Stoltzfus, but he lost again back in May dropping another unanimous decision to Phil Hawes to go 1-2 in the UFC.
PREDICTION
Holland got humbled and dominated by superior wrestlers. We know Daukaus is a jiu-jitsu ace with eight out of his 10 wins coming via submission, but he is not a top tier wrestler like Brunson and Vettori and he should be a bigger underdog.
Before his two losses, Holland was murking everyone including experienced strikers. Daukaus is a decent striker, but he is not on Holland’s level who will boast an important five-inch reach advantage.
Daukaus will hunt the takedown and will be dangerous if he gets the fight to the floor, but Holland is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Holland’s recent training camps and 50 minutes with Brunson and Vettori can also only improve his takedown defence.
This is odd matchmaking, and we expect Holland to be able to defend enough takedowns to unleash his speed, range and power on the feet to secure a knockout.
Prediction: Holland via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Holland via KO/TKO
ALEX OLIVEIRA VS NIKO PRICE
Alex Oliveira (22-10-1(1)) is coming off another purple patch highlighting his inconsistency. Back in 2018, he submitted Carlos Condit and knocked out Carlo Pedersoli Jr but then went on a skid getting submitted by Gunnar Nelson and losing unanimous decisions to Mike Perry and Nicolas Dalby. He bounced back with decisions over Max Griffin and Peter Sobotta but he is coming off two more submission losses although they were to two beasts – unbeaten prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov and Randy Brown.
Niko Price (14-5(2)) has always been one of the most exciting performances in the UFC, but a swashbuckling style does not do wonders for a UFC record. He is 6-5(2) in the big time with his record taking a dent recently. He got TKO’d by top contender Vicente Luque, fought to a draw with Donald Cerrone last year although it was later overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to popping for marijuana again and lost a unanimous decision to Michel Pereira in July. He is now desperate to get back on winning track and if he does, you know it will be spectacular having finished all of his UFC wins (four knockouts and two submissions).
PREDICTION
This is a tough fight to pick. They have all the skills but they are inconsistent so this will really depend on who turns up on the night. They are both very well-rounded as excellent grapplers and dynamic strikers. Price packs more power and knockout ability, but Oliveira is extremely durable and always in the fight.
The Brazilian also likes to rely on his takedowns and we expect him to resort to them at some point especially as Price keeps up a ferocious pace with a suffocating volume. This should be a gritty war and if Oliveira cannot control Price with his wrestling, he will have to absorb a ton of damage. Considering Price’s cardio, we expect him to win the war with his volume, but he will need something special to knock Oliveira out.
Prediction: Price via Decision
Value Bet: Price via Submission
MISHA CIRKUNOV VS KRZYSZTOF JOTKO
Misha Cirkunov (15-6) returns for his second appearance of the year and it would be great to see a third as the last time he fought three times in 12 months was back in 2016. That was a perfect year for Cirkunov coming off his successful UFC debut and submitting Alex Nicholson, Ion Cutelaba and Nikita Krylov. However, then the top tier of the division began to test his chin. He got knocked out by Volkan Oezdemir and Glover Teixeira in 2017, fought once the following year cinching up another submission, this time on Pat Cummins. He got knocked out for a third time in 2019 which was a spectacular knockout courtesy of Johnny Walker who headlines this card. Responded again with another submission but then suffered his fourth knockout back in March getting clapped by Ryan Spann.
After Krzysztof Jotko’s (22-5) seventh UFC fight, he was sitting on a 19-1 record with his eyes firmly fixed on the top 10. He had just knocked out Tamdan McCrory and outpointed Thales Leites but crashed back down to earth losing a split decision to David Branch and getting TKO’d by Uriah Hall and Brad Tavares. Unchartered territory for the Pole, but he showed a lot of character bouncing back with decisions over Alen Amedovski, Marc-Andre Barriault and Eryk Anders. He returned after a year out in May losing a unanimous decision, but it was to Sean Strickland who has just blazed his own path into the top 10.
PREDICTION
It seems every Cirkunov fight is a submission win or a knockout loss these days, but this is down at middleweight and Jotko does not have the striking power of the of the bigger boys up at 205 lbs.
It will be very interesting to see how the Latvian looks at 185 lbs as it is a big cut. He does not have to worry about getting smoked by one punch unless he is completely dehydrated. He has a similar height and reach to Jotko, but he will be a lot bigger and more powerful on the night.
Jotko is a solid grappler and brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but if Cirkunov gets his hands on him, it will be a quick night. Cirkunov has the power and technique to control Jotko on the ground and wrap up a submission.
Jotko needs to keep the fight standing and find that damaged chin. If Cirkunov is too depleted it can happen, but we expect another grappling masterclass and considering he is the underdog, he is well worth a punt.
Prediction: Cirkunov via Submission
Value Bet: Cirkunov via Submission
ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ VS MIKE BREEDEN
Alexander Hernandez (12-4) was preparing for Leonardo Santos and did not have an opponent until a few days out, so he is just grateful he is still has a fight. Especially as he is coming off the third loss of his UFC career. He got humbled by a Donald Cerrone head kick after a successful debut and unanimous decision over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He bounced back with another solid unanimous decision over Francisco Trinaldo but then got knocked out again, this time by Drew Dober. He got back on track again with a knockout over Chris Gruetzemacher but is coming off another humbling dealt out by Thiago Moises who impressed all three judges.
Mike Breeden (10-3) steps up to the plate to replace the Brazilian and he is clearly game accepting Alexander Hernandez for a debut. He earnt an audition on the Contender Series back in August last year after three knockouts in 2019 – Henry Lindsay (Blue Corner Promotions), Chel Erwin-Davis and Brandon Jenkins (Legacy Fighting Alliance). He failed to impress on the Contender Series losing a unanimous decision to Anthony Romero, but he remained on the radar after head kicking Ken Beverly and outpointing Nick Compton for the Fighting Alliance Championship.
PREDICTION
Hernandez has everything to lose. He is fully expected him to beat the debutant and if he loses then he will be written off as a future title challenger, so there is a lot of pressure on him here.
Breeden certainly has a chance of causing the upset. He is not as powerful as Hernandez, but he matched up similarly physically – slightly taller but two inches less in reach. Although he keeps his hands low, he is a solid striker and will test Hernandez’s chin if he lands clean.
Breeden is dangerous in the pocket and has a takedown in the locker, however, Hernandez should have the advantage in every area, on paper at least. He has the speed to pick Breeden off on the feet. Breeden is tough and heavy handed, but his square stance, lack of head movement and low hands will make him an easy target for Hernandez.
Hernandez also has the wrestling and cardio to completely overwhelm him and piling on the damage with ground-and-pound. With his experience, he may just notch up his sixth knockout, but the James Krause student will make it a tough fight.
Prediction: Hernandez via KO/TKO
JOE SOLECKI VS JARED GORDON
We wish Joe Solecki (11-2) has been more active as he has a ton of potential and flying on a six-fight win streak. The jiu-jistu wizard first emerged on the UFC scene by submitting James Wallace on the Contender Series back in 2019. He kicked off his UFC campaign with a unanimous decision over struggling veteran Matt Wiman and then submitted Austin Hubbard in the first round. He returned eight months later in April to meet his match in a jiu-jistu sense – Jim Miller and earnt the unanimous decision.
Jared Gordon (17-4) has finally built up some momentum earning two unanimous decisions in a row. He collected the scalps of Chris Fishgold and Danny Chavez but missed weight by five pounds for the Chavez fight. These were much needed wins after getting knocked out three times in his last four by Carlos Diego Ferreira, Joaquim Silva and current lightweight champ Charles Oliveira.
PREDICTION
Gordon will be buzzing that he is not fighting a knockout artist or just someone who can bang especially as he is moving up a weight class. However, he cannot afford to get taken down. He is a brown belt but, Solecki is a notch above and he will try and get the fight to the floor at any opportunity.
Gordon needs to start quickly and unleash his striking. He likes to force the pace which could work by catching Solecki early or he could just end up walking into a takedown. There may be some tasty exchanges on the feet which Gordon should get the better of, but we expect Solecki to get his takedown and work on a submission.
Gordon will put up a fight on the floor and should fend off the submission attempts for a couple rounds at least but it will not be enough to win.
Prediction: Solecki via Decision
ANTONINA SHEVCHENKO VS CASEY O’NEILL LOWDOWN
Since Antonina Shevchenko (9-3) has dipped into the UFC, her unbeaten record has been scrapped and she has fallen into the consecutive win loss streak which is classic in the female flyweight division. She earnt a unanimous decision over Ji Yeon Kim on her debut, lost a split decision to Roxanne Modafferi, then submitted Lucie Pudilova, lost a unanimous decision to Katlyn Chookagian, TKO’d Ariane Lipski and is now coming off a submission loss to Andrea Lee.
Casey O’Neill (7-0) is hoping to buck the trend and keep her streak going. She is now seven fights unbeaten after two successful UFC bouts and like Shevchenko, she possesses finishing ability. She finished all her amateur fights and kicked off her UFC career by knocking out Shana Dobson. She then followed that up four months later in June this year by submitting Lara Procopio.
PREDICTION
O’Neill has made a name for herself with her grappling but she has not fought a striker anywhere near the level of Shevchenko so this will be a real test. O’Neill has a two-inch reach advantage which will only help her tie her arms around Shevchenko, but she will be giving up four inches in leg reach.
She will utilise that by trying to keep O’Neill at a distance peppering her at the end of her kicks and jab. If the fight stays on the feet, Shevchenko will land at will with her technique and movement.
However, the key stat here is Shevchenko’s takedown defence which is only 56%. O’Neill is an animal and will hunt the takedown like a dog. If she can grab a hold of Shevcehnko, she will be able to take her down with relative ease. She will then proceed to pummel her down creating openings for a submission.
Prediction: O’Neill via KO/TKO
BETHE CORREIA VS KAROL ROSA
Bethe Correia (11-5-1) returns after her sole appearance of 2020. It was another unsuccessful one losing a unanimous decision to Pannie Kianzad in July. That loss made her go 5-5-1 in the UFC which is not how she thought her UFC career would go after winning her first three fights. Her last win came in 2019 winning a unanimous decision over Sijara Eubanks which came after a draw with Marion Reneau, a glorious question mark kick knockout courtesy of Holly Holm and a submission to Irene Aldana. A miserable period compounded by injury and she has been out for over a year after appendicitis forced her out of her fight with Wu Yanan in December.
Karol Rosa (14-3) also has not been anywhere near as active as she would have liked. She has only fought twice since 2019, but she is riding a brilliant five-fight win streak after sealing unanimous decisions over Vanessa Melo and Joselyne Edwards. She is now 3-0 in the UFC which includes a split decision over Lara Procopio on her debut.
PREDICTION
Correia is desperate for some consistency, but we can still expect her to be as aggressive as usual looking to keep the fight on the feet. She will try and walk Rosa down and close the distance before offloading combinations. She also showed that she had a takedown in the locker against Kianzad although we expect her to keep the fight standing.
Correia usually gives up the range and size, but Rosa is the same height with just a couple inches in reach over Correia. The main difference here will be Rosa’s grappling. She was very effective in taking Edwards and Melo down controlling the fight on the floor.
Rosa can also crack so will not be afraid of trading with Correira. The striking exchanges will be close so expect Rosa to mix in the takedowns. Correira has decent takedown defence and will make Rosa work hard for them, but if Rosa can get Correia to the ground, she can keep her there long enough to sway the judges.
Prediction: Rosa via Decision
JAMIE MULLARKEY VS DEVONTE SMITH
Jamie Mullarkey (13-4) is coming off the biggest win of his career and it came with huge relief after losing his first two UFC fights. He arrived to the UFC having TKO’d his last four opponents on the regional scene in Australia. He was rewarded with an extremely tough UFC debut in the form of Brad Riddell and although it was the ‘fight of the night’, he lost a unanimous decision. He returned a year later to fight Fares Ziam but the Frenchman made it two unanimous decisions losses in a row. Sitting on two losses and without a UFC win, getting handed Khama Worthy was a tough break. He was expected to turn the fight into a wrestling match but proceeded to catch Worthy with a picture-perfect left hook in the first round to notch the ninth knockout of his career.
A Worthy knockout is Devonte Smith’s (11-2) only loss in his last eight fights. He got his break in the UFC after knocking out Joseph Lowry with some nasty elbows on the Contender Series back in 2018. He then sealed his fourth knockout in a row by burying Julian Erosa and Dong Hyun Ma in his first two UFC fights. He then got a taste of his own medicine by Worthy and did not return for 18 months. Fortunately, when he came back, it was business as usual knocking out Justin Jaynes in February this year.
PREDICTION
This is a similar match-up for Mullarkey to the one with Worthy and after he knocked him out, he will be more confident trading with Smith. Regardless of how your last fight goes, exchanging with Smith is always a risk considering his knockout power. Smith will also be boasting a slight reach advantage despite being three inches shorter.
We expect the start on the fight where Smith will begin to get a read on Mullarkey with his jab waiting to uncork his straight right hand. Regardless of his last fight, Mullarkey needs to get his wrestling boots on.
We know Mullarkey is capable of getting Smith’s respect on the feet now but the longer he stands, the more he will get tagged and the more likely he will get knocked out. So, if the Aussie can mix in takedown attempts with his strikes, he can take Smith down and subdue him long enough to snatch the rounds.
If Mullarkey employs a game plan around his grappling and avoids Smith’s Travis Browne elbows when shooting it, we can see him sealing a comfortable decision. The longer Mullarkey stands, the more likely Smith will walk away with his 11th knockout. We are backing Mullarkey, but this is a toss-up.
Prediction: Mullarkey via Decision
Value Bet: Mullarkey via KO/TKO
ASPEN LADD VS MACY CHIASSON LOWDOWN
Aspen Ladd (9-1) is finally back in action after not having fought since December 2019. It was an unforgettable performance. After getting controlled in Yana Kunitskaya’s clinch for the best part of 10 minutes she received a pep talk from her cornerman to switch her into beast mode. She proceeded to charge at the Russian like a rhino as the bell sounded for the third round, drop her with a clean left hand and finish Kunitskaya off with savage ground-and-pound. We wish we saw more attitude like than from fighters down on the scorecards.
Macy Chiasson (7-1) has recovered from a stress fracture to her foot which postponed this fight from the UFC Vegas 32 card. She fights for the second time this year after only getting one outing in 2020. She eventually fought Marion Reneau after the veteran pulled out of two fights due to COVID-19 and when they met, Chiasson notched up her second unanimous decision win in a row after outpointing Shanna Young over a year prior. These two wins came after her first loss which was to Lina Lansberg in 2019 and now she is desperate to get a run going.
ASPEN LADD VS MACY CHIASSON PREDICTION
These ladies are two of the more exciting and promising bantamweights in the division. Neither of them have been as active as they would have liked since joining the UFC and as for Ladd, she has been out recovering from an a terrible knee injury in training tearing her ACL and MCL.
Both have similar styles and are very powerful which should create an exciting fight. They are both strong wrestlers who are aggressive and throw heat. We can expect them both to throw bombs while walking into range and take any opportunity to get the fight to the floor and rain down ground-and-pound.
Do not expect much technique on the feet but if one of them lands clean, they are getting dropped. There is not much between them besides Ladd’s experience fighting better competition. Expect reckless exchanges and shared takedowns creating a hard close fight. This can go either way, but we are backing Ladd to edge a decision.