UFC 265 - Full Card Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC 265? Sunday 8th August, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 265? Toyota Center, Houston, Texas (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 265? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 265
What channel is UFC 265 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC 265? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
DERRICK LEWIS VS CIRYL GANE
After negotiations with Jon Jones fell through, Derrick ‘The Black Beast’ Lewis (25-7(1)) was slotted in line to take on Francis Ngannou. However, the UFC brass has taken exception to Ngannou not wanting to be forced back too early so have created a new interim title fight. Since, Daniel Cormier ragdolled and submitted Lewis in his first title fight back in November at UFC 230 and the former champion Junior dos Santos made it two losses in a row with a knockout, Lewis has strung four wins together. He earnt a dubious split decision over Blagoy Ivanov, another tight but unanimous decision over Ilir Latifi and two convincing knockouts over Alexey Oleynik and Curtis Blaydes to propel himself back into the title picture.
Cyril ‘Bon Gamin’ Gane (9-0) is the beneficiary of the UFC’s drama with Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou but either way, his progression from making his professional debut just three years ago to featuring in a title fight on the biggest stage is remarkable. Only Brock Lesnar shot to the title quicker and he was a juicy freak show. Gane is a different beast with an array of skill and the poise of a veteran. He is still unbeaten having won his six UFC fights and is coming off a TKO over dos Santos and two very classy unanimous decisions over Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov just six weeks ago.
PREDICTION
Those three fights proved Gane’s skills and poise makes up for his lack of experience which Lewis has in abundance. Gane is more-rounded, more technical and more athletic but Lewis’ ‘one-hitter-quitter’ power is the antagonist to any skill.
The obvious route to victory is to grapple Lewis and keep him on his back. The only man to accomplish that was the Olympic wrestler Cormier but as we saw in the Blaydes fight, elite wrestling counts for nothing if The Black Beast’s right hand lands flush.
So, the question is whether Lewis can find the chin of Gane. The same question was present in Gane’s fight with Rozenstruik who also has scary one-punch knockout power. However, Gane schooled him. Not only was he incredibly illusive, he kept switching stance and peppering Rozenstruik from range with a variety of kicks and punches.
His movement and volume will be crucial against Lewis if the fights lasts 25 minutes. Volkov was cruising in his fight until Lewis landed an unholy bomb with seconds remaining. The difference with Gane is that he had the cardio and volume to disable Lewis.
Expect Gane to approach this the same way as the Rozenstruik fight by making himself incredibly difficult to hit while chopping Lewis down with leg kicks while bouncing in and out of range catching him with jabs, 1-2’s and kicks to the head and liver and also threatening a takedown. He will struggle to detain Lewis while he is fresh, even if he secures a takedown as Lewis has the raw strength to spring back up so expect Gane to wait a round or two before a takedown attempt.
Gane will conduct the tempo knowing Lewis will patiently wait to explode. Whether that be a counter right-hand, high kick, flying knee or an uppercut meeting a level-change. We feel Gane’s speed, movement and defence will frustrate Lewis and tire him out for three rounds. Then, his strikes will accumulate and dismantle Lewis making him an easy target.
Of course, a knockout for Lewis is likely and has the advantage of fighting on his own patch, but we feel Bon Gamin will ramp it up another level and may just achieve a late finish on a knackered beast.
Prediction: Gane via Decision
Value Bet: Gane via Submission
JOSE ALDO VS PEDRO MUNHOZ
The King of Rio Jose Aldo (29-7) is back for his 18th UFC fight. 12 of those have been title fights and it is remarkable he is still slugging it out with the best. The only featherweights to beat him are former champions Conor McGregor, Max Holloway and current champion Alexander Volkanovski. After that loss to Volkanovski in 2019, he tried his hand at bantamweight which was a surprise as he was depleting himself to make 145 lbs. However, he looked great against Marlon Moraes and somehow lost a split decision. The UFC clearly thought he won as he was awarded a fight for the vacant title against Petr Yan. He was eventually outclassed by the new breed getting TKO’d in the fifth round. People are starting to write the legend off, but he returned five months later and earnt a unanimous decision over top contender Marlon Vera.
The 18th savage in line for Aldo is Pedro Munhoz (19-5(1)) who looked at his best coming off two losses in a row. After burying Bryan Caraway and Cody Garbrandt, he ran into the current champion Aljamain Sterling losing a unanimous decision and then fell on the wrong side of a split decision to Frankie Edgar. He has made a habit of falling short against top contenders, but he put on a clinic against Jimmie Rivera winning a unanimous decision in February and is now 9-5(1) in the UFC.
PREDICTION
This has got barnburner written all over it. Expect them to put their Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts to one side and engage in a violent kickboxing battle. They both have a dangerous kicking game, especially Aldo but we assume some sort of hip injury over the years has limited his use. We can still expect some lethal kicks from both men, but the majority of their output will be supplied by their ferocious hands.
Aldo has lost a bit of the pop, but he still has the edge when it comes to speed, technique, defence, experience as well as an important five-inch reach advantage. His movement and reaction time is still there and although he has taken a lot of damage in recent years, the only fighter to out strike him without a reach advantage is Yan.
Munhoz can win this with a constant output popping the jab, calf kicks and rips to the liver. He has the power to wear Aldo down, but ‘three-round’ Aldo is still a monster. We feel Munhoz will have to land a killer blow and rock Aldo to at least win a round and scrape the third to win a decision.
However, Aldo is just a notch above in every area and we expect him to find a home for his hands and feet with ease. Munhoz has a granite chin so he will be hard to put away. He also has the power to change the course of the fight so this will be a close one and one hell of a scrap but we are backing the King of Rio.
Prediction: Aldo via Decision
Value Bet: Munhoz via Decision
MICHAEL CHIESA VS VICENTE LUQUE
Michael Chiesa (18-4) is in the form of his life and has just racked up two huge wins. He used to embark on a deathly cut to 155 lbs and it clearly effected his performances. That said, he still managed to submit Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts Jim Miller (2015) and Beneil Dariush (2016). However, he went on to get submitted himself by Kevin Lee (2017) and Anthony Pettis (2018) missing weight for that bout. That was a blessing in disguise as it forced a move up to welterweight and has not lost since. He submitted Carlos Condit (2018) and earnt dominant unanimous decisions over Diego Sanchez (2019), Rafael dos Anjos (2020) and Neil Magny (2021).
Vicente Luque (20-7-1) is also on a tear but prefers to finish his opponents. He went on a blazing six-fight win streak including four knockouts, a submission, and a split decision over Mike Perry (2019). He then met his match on the feet three months later in Stephen Thompson and was simply finessed and outclassed in a unanimous decision. However, he resumed business as usual after the setback knocking out Niko Price (2020), Randy Brown (2020) and submit Tyron Woodley (2021) for his biggest dub to date.
PREDICTION
Luque is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt, but this will be a classic grappler vs striker match-up. Luque is one of the most feared and durable strikers in the division and Chiesa’s wrestling is even more of a force up at 170 lbs allowing his jiu-jitsu to flourish.
Chiesa offers very little on the feet and he will look to close the distance as soon as possible to tie Luque up and simply wear him down. Whether that is in the clinch, up against the fence or using trips and single leg takedowns to get Luque on his back and keep him there.
Luque is strong and has decent takedown defence, but Chiesa is relentless with his chain wrestling and has the cardio to go a suffocating pace for 15 minutes. So, unless Luque can hurt Chiesa before he gets close, Chiesa just needs to grab a hold of Luque to stick on him until the round ends, ideally pouncing on his back and wrapping a body lock.
Luque is the favourite, and he is a on a completely different level on the feet, but he has not fought a wrestler like Chiesa, and we do not know how if he can defend a takedown for three rounds. So, unless Luque catches him early, we are backing the underdog to grind out another decision.
Prediction: Chiesa via Decision
Value Bet: Chiesa via Decision
TECIA TORRES VS ANGELA HILL
Tecia Torres (12-5) is back in the win column after a worrying spell. Unless you are in the top five of the strawweight division, wins followed by losses is the norm but after a brilliant three-fight win streak including a unanimous decision over Michelle Waterson, Torres went on a four-fight slump. However, she did fight four of the best istrawweights in a row. She lost unanimous decisions to Jessica Andrade (2018), Joanna Jedrzejczyk (2018), Weili Zhang and Marina Rodriguez. She went back to the drawing board and although she was then paired with lesser competition, she looked reborn and ultra-aggressive outpointing Brianna Van Buren and ruthlessly finishing Sam Hughes in the first round.
Angela Hill (13-9) is now 7-7 in the UFC, but she has continued to improve since her debut. Her longest win streak came between 2019 and 2020 when she TKO’d Ariane Carnelossi and Hannah Cifers before earning a unanimous decision over fellow Muay Thai specialist Loma Lookboonmee. However, she then lost close split decisions to top contenders Claudia Gadelha and Michelle Waterson which has been the theme of her career. She returned to fight Ashley Yoder for a second time back in March and picked up another comfortable unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
These two last fought in 2015 when Torres took home the spoils in a unanimous decision. They have both evolved tremendously since that fight but a decision is very likely to repeat itself.
If Torres comes out as aggressive as she did against Hughes, this will be a war as Hill does not back down and is also aggressive with her Muay Thai. Hill boasts a two-inch height and four-inch reach advantage, but Torres has the speed advantage.
If Torres bursts out the gate again, she could catch Hill off guard but there is always the danger of running into knees and elbows. However, if she comes out aggressive again but channels that into takedowns, she can get Hill on her back where she is most uncomfortable.
Hill still has a glaring weakness on the floor so if Torres uses her speed to set up takedowns with strikes, she can seal the rounds. If Torres decides to stand for three rounds, we would back Hill for a decision win, but Torres should be too smart to not mix in grappling and she should sway the judges, but this is bound to be another very tight decision.
Prediction: Torres via Decision
YADONG SONG VS CASEY KENNEY
Yadong Song (16-5-1(1)) returns after suffering his first loss in 10 fights. Kyler Phillips put on one of his best performances back in March earning a unanimous decision halting the prospect from China. He won his first four UFC bouts before fighting to a draw with Cody Stamann getting a point deducted for an illegal knee. He moved back up to featherweight to take on Marlon Vera and earnt a dubious unanimous decision. He dropped back down to 135 lbs for the Phillips fight and continues his bantamweight quest at UFC 265.
Casey Kenney’s (16-3-1) momentum was also halted in his last fight. He had only lost once in his last 10 and that was a unanimous decision to Merab Dvalishvili who has been grinding everyone out of late. After that loss, Kenney submitted Louis Smolka and earnt comfortable unanimous decisions over Heili Alateng and Nathaniel Wood. Those wins took him to 5-1 in the UFC before he somehow managed a split decision with the bantamweight legend Dominick Cruz.
PREDICTION
This is a phenomenal fight to kick off the main card. They are both extremely well-rounded and match up very well. They are quality strikers. Song is the better boxer with more power in his hands whereas Kenney is more lethal with his kicks which he will unleash from his southpaw stance.
They are very similar physically and both are rapid on the feet. If this is solely a kickboxing match, we would back Song to earn a decision and he also has the power to get the knockout, but Casey’s defence is very good. Where Casey can change the course of the fight is with his takedowns.
He mixes in his takedowns very well and if he can catch Song off guard and get him on his back or assume some control time in each round, he will be able to sway the judges.
Overall, a decision is likely to fall either way. We would not be surprised to see another another split decision and we are leaning towards Song, but this is a very tough one to call.
Prediction: Song via Decision
RAFAEL FIZIEV VS BOBBY GREEN
Rafael Fiziev (9-1) makes his first appearance of the year much to the relief of many fans as he has looked electric in his last few fights. The only setback of his career so far came on his UFC debut against Magomed Mustafaev who delivered a monstrous spinning back kick to knock Fiziev out. The Kazakhstani took it on the chin and bounced back with impressive unanimous decisions over Alex White and Marc Diakiese before putting the division on notice with a ‘performance of the night’ and vintage knockout over Renato Moicno back in December.
Bobby Green (27-11-1) also makes his first UFC walk of the year. He was going into 2020 off the back of two unanimous decision losses to Drakkar Klose and Francisco Trinaldo but then experienced a resurgence. He strung three very impressive unanimous decisions of his own over Clay Guida, Lando Vannata and Alan Patrick and never looked better at the age of 34. However, he ended his active year losing another unanimous decision to Thiago Moises who just had a little more to offer on the night.
PREDICTION
This is going to be an exhilarating battle on the feet. Green is a seasoned and technically sound boxer. On the other hand, Fiziev is a Muay Thai monster and throws fire in all limbs. His kicks in particular are ferocious snapping from both feet without telegraphing. He is the all-round more dangerous striker and his variety and power firmly swing this in his favour.
Expect Fiziev to attack the body and legs of Green who will mainly stand in a southpaw stance. Green tends to keep his hands low and has relied on his reaction time to slip shots, but Fiziev has the speed to catch him especially when throwing combinations where he will target the body to open up the guard and pounce on the jaw like he did to Moicano.
Very few strikers have outclassed Green on the feet recently, but we feel this is exactly what Fiziev will do and may just seal the deal with a knockout.
Prediction: Fiziev via Decision
Value Bet: Fiziev via KO/TKO
VINCE MORALES VS DRAKO RODRIGUEZ
Vince Morales (9-5) is in a slump. He has lost four of his last six and his UFC career could well be on the line here. He made his first UFC appearance in 2018 when he stepped up on short notice to take on Yadong Song who is also on this card. He lost a unanimous decision for a tough debut, but it could have gone a lot worse. He responded by winning a unanimous decision over Aiemann Zahabi to extend his shelf life but he is coming off two more losses to Benito Lopez (unanimous decision) and Chris Gutierrez (TKO).
Drako Rodriguez (7-2) is coming off a loss to the man Morales last beat. He met Zahabi back in February and received a harsh welcome to the UFC in the shape of a stunning straight right hand. It was a brutal first-round knockout which snapped a three-fight win streak including a submission over Leomana Martinez on the Contender Series.
PREDICTION
Morales has to be more aggressive. He has the pressure of getting cut with another loss and if he is tentative in the striking exchanges again, Rodriguez will capitalise. Rodriguez’s knockout was a huge slap of reality and he cannot afford to eat simple straight right hands in the UFC.
Morales is a slick striker and stand-up exchanges should be a very even contest, especially if Rodriguez starts to land his leg kicks. Rodriguez also has wrestling in the locker, and he could take the fight away from Morales with a few takedowns.
We feel we have not seen the best out of Morales and he has to show a more proactive version of himself to save his UFC career. As the odds suggest this will be a close fight and is a tough one to call.
Prediction: Morales via Decision
ED HERMAN VS ALONZO MENIFIELD
It seemed Ed Herman’s (26-14(1)) career was finally coming to an end after losing his third fight in a row. Nikita Krylov made him eat dirt with a beautiful head kick and then he lost decisions to CB Dollaway (unanimous) and Gian Villante (split). However, he waltzed into 2019 by kneeing Pat Cummins and earning a unanimous decision over Khadis Ibragimov. He made it three in a row after submitting Mike Rodriguez, but he was lucky after getting some time-out to recover from an illegal blow, but replays showed Rodriguez was nowhere near the jewels and was robbed of the chance of finishing Herman.
2020 was a bad year for Alonzo Menifield (10-2) suffering both his losses. The knockout machine was flying after his first two UFC fights. He TKO’d Dashawn Boatwright on the Contender Series and then erased Vinicius Moreira and Paul craig with first-round knockouts. He then got grinded down by Devin Clark in a dominant unanimous decision and then starched by Ovince Saint Preux (OSP). However, he is back on the winning trail after taking a leaf out of OSP’s book and pulling off a Von Flue choke on Fabio Cherant back in March.
PREDICTION
If Herman gets out the first round, he has a great chance of extending his win streak. He has the cardio, experience and grappling (particularly the clinch) to wear Menifield down and sneak a decision
However, that is easier said than done. Menifield is an absolute juggernaut with ferocious knockout power. He is incredibly explosive and as long as he fights his own game, he can blast Herman away.
Menifield did not impose himself against Clark and OSP and considering his skill set and Herman’s nous, Menifield has to be aggressive. If Herman weathers the first round, he will be a great bet to win especially as an underdog.
However, we expect a Menifield performance of old, putting the crafty veteran away early.
Prediction: Menifield via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Herman via Decision
KAROLINA KOWALKIEWICZ VS JESSICA PENNE
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-6) has had quite the fall from grace from suffering her first loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the strawweight title back in 2016 to experiencing a four-fight skid. She then got submitted by Claudia Gadelha (2017) and responded with two decision wins over Jodie Esquibel (2017) and Felice Herrig (2018) but those were her last wins. She suffered one of the most brutal knockouts in strawweight history courtesy of Jessica Andrade (2018) and then lost unanimous decisions to Michelle Waterson (2019), Alexa Grasso (2019) and Xiaonan Yan (2020). They are all very tough opponents, and it does not help fighting with Hashimoto’s disease
It was impossible not to be happy for Jessica Penne (13-5) back in April. She only had four UFC fights between 2014 and 2021 due to bans for tainted supplements and a host of illnesses and freak injuries. She won her debut earning a split decision over Randa Markos (2014) on The Ultimate Fighter finale and then lost three in a row. She got TKO’d by Jedrzejczyk (2015) and Andrade (2016) before losing a unanimous decision to Danielle Taylor (2017). After stewing over those losses and her wretched luck, she finally made it to the octagon to earn a spirited split decision over Loopy Godinez.
PREDICTION
This is great matchmaking, but it will be tough to see one of them lose again. Kowalkiewicz is the better striking hailing from a successful Muay Thai background. She does not have knockout power, but she is technically sound and very dynamic. Penne has average striking but has the edge in the grappling department which she can leverage with her size and power advantage.
She has three inches in reach and two in height on Kowalkiewicz but she will just try and close the distance and look for a takedown. If she does take the Pole down, we cannot see her doing much but she will latch on to her for as long as possible to seal the round.
Kowalkiewicz has decent takedown defence and if she can maintain the distance, she will pepper Penne for three rounds. She has not looked great for three years, but this is a much kinder match-up than previous opponents and as long as she avoids the majority of takedowns she will walk away with a vintage unanimous decision win.
Prediction: Kowalkiewicz via Decision
MANEL KAPE VS ODE OSBOURNE
Manel Kape (15-6) is desperate for a win. After notching up three knockouts in a row for Rizin in 2019 (Seiichiro Ito, Takeya Mizugaki and Kai Asakura), he awarded with a UFC contract. However, things have not gone to plan since. He had a very tough debut in the form of Alexandre Pantoja losing a unanimous decision and then stepped up on short notice only five weeks later to fight Matheus Nicolau losing a split decision.
Ode Osbourne (9-3(1)) also had a tough debut. He arrived to the UFC on a four-fight win streak (three submissions and one knockout) but Brian Kelleher welcomed him to the UFC with a guillotine in the first round. That was not how he wanted to showcase himself on the UFC 246 Conor McGregor card, but he made up for it in February by knocking out Jerome Rivera in just 26 seconds.
PREDICTION
Osbourne fought Kelleher at bantamweight and Rivera up at featherweight, but he drops down to flyweight for this one. He will boast a five-inch reach and two-inch height advantage which will make him very threatening if he cuts the weight well.
They are both southpaws and have heavy hands for flyweights, especially Kape. Osbourne has the range and has very quick hands so this should be a very exciting scrap. Osbourne will look big in the cage against Kape but if he does not work on his defence, Kape can catch him clean and depending on how much he has depleted himself, he could go to sleep.
We are backing Kape but Osbourne is a great shout as the underdog especially if his weight cut goes smoothly.
Prediction: Kape via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Osbourne to win
VICTORIA LEONARDO VS MELISSA GATTO
Victoria Leonardo’s (8-3) UFC debut did not go to plan. She arrived off the back of two good wins last year - a unanimous decision over Liz Tracy for Invicta and a TKO over Chelsea Hackett on the Contender Series. She was then paired up with fellow debutant Natalia Silva but after she broke her arm, Manon Fiorot was shipped in. Fiorot proceeded to ruin Leonardo’s debut with a striking lesson finishing her with a second-round TKO.
Melissa Gatto (6-0-2) finally makes her debut. She was supposed to fight Talita Bernardo for her introduction back in 2019 but that along with bouts against Julia Avila and Mariya Agapova were all cancelled. So, her last fight was all the way back in 2018 when she submitted Karol Rosa which could be a sign of her potential as Rosa has gone on a five-fight win streak since including three UFC fights.
PREDICTION
Gatto is unbeaten and is a talent on the floor at least, but she has not fought for nearly three years and has served a drugs ban in that time. Since her last fight, Leonardo has fought eight times which will inevitably play in her favour.
There are a lot of unknowns about Gatto. We do not know how rusty she will be and how much she has improved since 2018. She is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and we expect her to try and get the fight to the ground.
Leonardo is the better striker and can wrestle so if she can fend off Gatto for three rounds, she will have an easy night but if she makes a mistake, she could easily get tangled up in a submission.
A Leonardo decision or Gatto submission are you best bets here, but it is hard to predict considering Gatto’s time off and lack of tape.
Prediction: Leonardo via Decision
Value Bet: Gatto via Submission
JOHNNY MUNOZ JR VS JAMEY SIMMONS
Like many of foes, Johnny Munoz Jr (10-1) suffered the first loss of his career on his UFC debut. The product of King of the Cage fought his whole career for the organisation including three successful amateur fights. He steamrolled his first eight opponents with six first round finishes and then met Rentsen Otgontulga for the bantamweight title in 2019. He earnt a unanimous decision to collect the title and followed it up with a submission over Ian King at a 140 lb catchweight to set up his shot on the big stage. He stepped up to replace Ray Borg and fight Nate Maness, but he got derailed with a unanimous decision.
Jamey Simmons (7-3) is also coming off a loss on his UFC debut. He has bounced around for a variety of promotions compiling a record of 7-2 against some rather mediocre opponents. He was then thrusted into UFC action in a complete mismatch which we called before the fight. He was handed to Giga Chikadze who chewed him up and spat him out in the first round with a TKO.
PREDICTION
This is a better match-up for Simmons, but he is still a significant underdog and for good reason. Munoz is a very strong wrestler. He is aggressive and we expect him to waste no time in trying to get Simmons to the mat.
Simmons can wrestle himself, but he is not quite on Munhoz’s level and as he does not have one-punch knockout power, Munhoz will be confident in simply walking him down, clinching up and dragging him down to the canvas.
Once he gets Simmons down, Munoz will hunt the back and look for a submission. Simmons will put up a fight so Munoz will try and soften him up with ground-and-pound, but we are backing Munhoz to bag the finish via submission or TKO.