UFC Vegas 34 - Breakdowns & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 34? Sunday 22nd August, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 34? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 34? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 34 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 34? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
JARED CANNONIER VS KELVIN GASTELUM
Jared Cannonier’s (13-5) middleweight quest was stopped in its tracks by Robert Whittaker last October. After slugging it out at heavyweight and light heavyweight, Cannonier finally dropped to a more natural 185 lbs and instantly became a middleweight problem. He TKO’d David Branch (2018), Anderson Silva (2019) and Jack Hermansson (2019) to set up a number one contender fight. However, he was outclassed by one of the best middleweights of all time losing a unanimous decision and even suffered a broken arm in the first round.
Cannonier was scheduled to fight Paulo Costa but the Brazilian had to withdraw again which has made room for another main event slot for Kelvin Gastelum (16-7(1)). He is also coming off a humbling handed out by Whittaker losing a unanimous decision in April. That was Gastelum’s fourth loss in his last five which is the trouble when you are fighting the best in the division. Israel Adesanya outpointed him in that epic interim title fight, Darren Till squeaked past in a split decision and then got submitted by Jack Hermansson. He broke the skid by outpointing Ian Heinisch but now has a mountain to climb to prevent five losses from six.
PREDICTION
Cannonier has only lost to Shawn Jordan, Jan Blachowicz, Dominic Reyes and Whittaker. There are very few middleweights that can beat any of them. Gastelum’s only weakness is his size as a middleweight and Cannonier has eight wins at heavyweight and is even better at 185 lbs. He will have a six-inch reach, and considerable power advantage.
However, Gastelum’s boxing, hand speed and durability enabled him to become a title contender and we finally saw his wrestling against Heinisch. If he mixes these together, he has a chance. He can’t just rely on his boxing, and he is a better wrestler than Cannonier, so he needs to have a game plan based around his wrestling. He needs to constantly threaten his lightening 1-2 down the pipe as a counter while level-changing to secure a takedown.
However, he needs a flawless performance which is hard to see considering his form. We expect the majority of the fight to stay on the feet where Cannonier should edge the exchanges. He is likely to dish out the most damage with leg kicks to chop Gastelum down and follow up with his hands.
We have seen Gastelum down larger and more powerful opponents, and he has a granite chin so he will always be in the fight. However, Cannonier has the skill to match his power and although he is not on Adesanya or Whittaker’s level, his technique, size and reach swing this firmly in his favour but Gastelum is always a good shout as the dog.
Prediction: Cannonier via Decision
Value Bet: Gastelum to win
CLAY GUIDA VS MARK MADSEN
The stalwart Clay Guida (36-20) picked up his first win in over two years back in February. He earnt a unanimous decision over the legend BJ Penn after getting submitted by the current lightweight champ Charles Oliveira. He went on to lose two in a row against fellow vets Jim Miller (submission) and Bobby Green (unanimous decision) but picked up his 16th UFC win win with another unanimous decision over Michael Johnson.
Mark Madsen (10-0) is still undefeated in MMA after winning his first two UFC fights. The Olympic Greco-Roman wrestler ventured into MMA in 2013 and steamrolled his first eight opponents before making his entrance to the UFC. He blitzed out the gate on his debut, throwing Danilo Belluardo to the mat and pounding him out early in the first round. He then followed that up in March last year earning a unanimous decision over Austin Hubbard.
PREDICTION
There is only three years between them, but they are at opposite ends of their MMA careers. Guida’s last six opponents have all been veterans which is good matchmaking when you cannot compete with the best in the division anymore.
Madsen is a combat vet, but he is a young lion in MMA terms and with hardly any damage on the clock, he will understandably be the heavy favourite. He has the power and speed to overwhelm Guida and his wrestling will nullify Guida’s strength. However, you cannot count out Guida’s experience and endurance.
If Guida can get through the first round, he can scrap a decision. He will not slow down and will be the fresher man in the third. Madsen also has not fought in over 17 months so there is a bit of value in a Guida decision.
That said, we expect Madsen’s wrestling and power will be too much for Guida for two rounds. He should assume top position for large portions of the fight raining down ground-and-pound while looking for a submission. This should be a comfortable night for Madsen if he paces himself.
Prediction: Madsen via Decision
Value Bet: Guida via Decision
CHASE SHERMAN VS PARKER PORTER
Chase Sherman (15-7) got his resurgent streak snapped by Andrei Arlovski back in April. After losing three in a row to Shamil Abdurakhimov (KO), Justin Willis (unanimous decision) and Augusto Sakai (TKO) he got cut. He strung three knockouts in a row for the local Island Fights promotion and also got in three bare knuckle fights in 2019. This led to another shot in the UFC and kept the run going with a TKO over Ike Vilanueva however, he was outclassed by a seasoned unanimous decision by the legend.
Parker Porter (11-6) steps out for his third UFC fight and is hoping for a second win. After submitting Kevin Ray Sears and finishing Dirlei Broenstrup via TKO for CES MMA, he got his chance in the big time. He met fellow debutant Chris Daukaus at UFC 252 and was knocked out the first round. However, he got his UFC campaign up and running last November with a unanimous decision over Josh Parisian.
PREDICTION
What these lumps lack in technical skill, they certainly make up for in knockout ability and we are very likely to see a finish here. Sherman has the experience and a significant four-inch height and three-inch reach advantage.
Expect Sherman to press the action opening up with a lot of volume. He will continually try and tag Porter and will happy to clinch up throwing elbows and knees. However, his aggressiveness means he is open to get hit, and Porter has the power to find an early knockout.
They are both going to hunt the KO and with their defence, one is expected to land. We are leaning towards Sherman with his experience, reach and speed. He is the heavy favourite, so the smart money is on Porter.
Prediction: Sherman via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Porter to win
BRIAN KELLEHER VS DOMINGO PILARTE
Brian Kelleher’s (22-12) UFC future looked bleak in 2018, sitting on two losses to John Lineker (knockout) and Montel Jackson (submission) with one fight left on his contract. He was out for over a year recovering from injury waiting for his chance to extend his career. He met Ode Osbourne in 2020 and proceeded to seal a first-round guillotine and ‘performance of the night’ bonus. He has been very active since but suffered mixed fortunes knocking out Hunter Azure, getting outpointed by Cody Stamann, submitting Ray Rodriguez but is coming off another unanimous decision, this time to Ricky Simon.
Domingo Pilarte (8-2(1)) appears for his annual fight. He has only fought once a year since 2015 which is a shame. He earnt a split decision over the red-hot prospect Adrian Yanez in 2017 for the Legacy Fighting Alliance which led to a shot on the Contender Series. He was paired with Vince Morales and submitted him in the second round. His UFC performances have not quite matched those performances losing a split decision to Felipe Colares and then got knocked out in 38 seconds by Journey Newson although his record was spared the damage after that was overturned to a ‘no contest’ due to Newson testing positive for marijuana.
PREDICTION
These two finally meet more than three years after their original date. Pilarte is a big bantamweight and will boast a significant six-inch height and 10-inch reach advantage. However, he has not fought in 18 months and his last win was over three years ago.
Pilarte will tower above Kelleher in his southpaw stance, but Kelleher is used to being the shorter fighter and will try and burst into the pocket and offload his power. The striking exchanges will be fun, but they are also good grapplers with 14 submissions between them.
Pilarte is a good wrestler and Kelleher’s last two losses have come to top wrestlers Stamann and Simon although Pilarte is not quite on their level. We can see Pilarte wearing Kelleher down with his grappling nonetheless and controlling the range on the feet to sway the judges.
However, Pilarte’s defence is the real worry. His chin is suspect, and we can see Kelleher landing one of his bombs like Newson did and even punce on a submission if the scrambles get sloppy. This is a tough one to call, but we are leaning towards Kelleher with his experience.
Prediction: Kelleher via KO/TKO
Value Bet: Pilarte to win
VINC PICHEL VS AUSTIN HUBBARD
Vinc Pichel (13-2) made his UFC debut in 2012 and has only fought eight times. He lost his debut by getting ragdolled by Rustam Khabilov and eventually knocked out. He showed his worth responding with an impressive four-fight win streak but then ran into another elite wrestler in 2018. Gregor Gillespie dominated him and secured an arm triangle in the second round. He has only fought twice since but has picked up two solid unanimous decisions – Roosevelt Roberts in 2019 and then Jim Miller another year later.
Austin Hubbard (13-5) has been far more active racking up six fights since his UFC debut in 2019. He has not been as consistent as Pichel going 3-3. He has lost to top tier grapplers Davi Ramos (unanimous decision), Mark Madsen (unanimous decision) Joe Solecki (submission). His wins have come over Kyle Prepolec (unanimous decision), Max Rohskopf (retirement) and is coming off an impressive unanimous decision over Dakota Bush back in April.
PREDICTION
All of their losses have come to elite grapplers. However, Pichel is also an exceptional wrestler and was just outclassed by two of the best wrestlers in the division at the time. So, the game plan for Pichel will be to call upon his wrestling and subdue Hubbard.
They match up very similarly physically, but the obvious difference is Hubbard’s preference to keep the fight on the feet. Pichel can strike, but he will only use his striking to set up a takedown.
Pichel will be relentless with his takedowns and Hubbard is a slippery customer but only has a 58% takedown defence. The longer the fight stays on the feet, the more chance Hubbard has in sealing each round with his volume, but we do not expect it to stay on the feet for long.
We expect Pichel to close the distance and get his hands on Hubbard. Pichel will not throw Hubbard around the cage, but he will control him enough to nullify his striking and seal a decision.
Prediction: Pichel via Decision
ALEXANDRE PANTOJA VS BRANDON ROYVAL
Alexandre Pantoja (23-5) is coming off a solid unanimous decision win over Manel Kape in February – a win that will look better with time as Kape is a real talent. It came after a unanimous decision loss to Askar Askarov a year ago who is on his way to a title shot. Pantoja is now 7-3 in the UFC and since his loss to Dustin Ortiz back in 2018, the Brazilian has only lost to Deiveson Figueiredo and Askarov which is very respectable, and he even has a win over the current champ Brandon Moreno back in 2018.
Brandon Royval (16-7(1)) is another exciting flyweight talent but is coming off the first setback of his UFC career. After winning the vacant Legacy Fighting Alliance by submitting Nate Williams, he stepped up to the UFC to take to take on Tim Elliott and Kai Kara-France. He simply continued where he left off and submitted both of them proving he is more than UFC calibre. However, he met his match in Moreno in November and they put on an exhilarating show before getting TKO’d at the end of the first round.
PREDICTION
This is a great fight to kick off the main card. Royval makes every fight exciting, and Pantoja is not one to back down so this should be an action-packed and fast-paced scrap.
Expect Royval to be his usual unorthodox self, pressing the action with Pantoja waiting to counter. Royval will have a four-inch height and three-reach advantage, but he needs to be smart when he presses the action as he has a tendency to leave his chin exposed which he cannot afford to do against Pantoja.
We expect the stand-up battle to be exciting with it spilling into scrambles and grappling exchanges. They are both exceptional on the ground and capable of a submission here. Overall, this should be an even and fiercely contested fight with a mixture of everything.
Royval can get the job done by making this a scrappy brawl and wearing Pantoja down. If Royval is reckless, Pantoja can counter with his power. The Brazilian can also gain the upper hand in the grappling exchanges as long as he can get in top position but if he gets hurt Royval can wrap up a submission in a flash.
This can go either way and they are both efficient finishers but, extremely hard to finish, so we could see a three-round war. We are leaning towards Pantoja as he is slightly better technically in every area, but it is hard to count out Royval.
Prediction: Pantoja via Decision
BEA MALECKI VS JOSIANE NUNES
The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) alumni Bea Malecki (4-0) heads to the octagon for the third time. She has not been anywhere near as active as she would like only getting in four fights since 2017. She did not make it out of the first round of the TUF tournament getting outpointed by Leah Letson. That said, she is still undefeated professionally. She submitted Faith Davis and TKO’d Tracy Smith (both ExciteFight) and submitted Duda Santana on her UFC debut in 2019. She followed that up with a unanimous decision over Veronica Macedo in March last year and is finally back for another scrap.
Josiane Nunes (7-1) makes her UFC debut off the back of a six-fight win streak including five knockouts. She lost her second professional fight in 2013 dropping a unanimous decision to Taila Santos who is now and emerging flyweight contender in the UFC. She has gone on a tear since and handed her last two opponents the first loss of their careers. She knocked out Dione Barbosa (Kantana Fight) and Quezia Zbonik (Forze Fighting Championship) and is ready to showcase that power on the biggest stage.
PREDICTION
We all know about Nunes’ power in her hands, but she will be giving up seven inches in height and reach. They are both strikers by trade hailing from a Muay Thai background so this should be a fascinating contest.
Nunes is a tiny bantamweight, but she will have the power advantage. She is less technical than Malecki, but she has more venom in her punches and despite the reach discrepancy, we expect her to land considering Malecki’s defence is rather average.
Nunes can notch up another knockout if she catches Malecki early but if this goes past the first round, we expect Malecki’s size and technique to take the fight away from the Brazilian. Nunes will throw bombs which will tire her out which will allow Malecki to control the exchanges. Especially in the clinch where she will engulf Nunes.
Nunes has a punchers chance but the longer the fight goes on, the more comfortable Malecki will be, and we back her for a decision win.
Prediction: Malecki via Decision
Value Bet: Nunes via KO/TKO
WILLIAM KNIGHT VS FABIO CHERANT
William Knight (9-2) returns after suffering the second loss of his career. His first loss was in 2019 when Tafon Nchukwi knocked him out for the Cage Fury Fighting Championships. This snapped a six-fight streak, but he responded by stringing three impressive wins together. He knocked out Rocky Edwards and then Cody Brundage on the Contender Series. He then met Aleksa Camur for his UFC debut and handed him the first loss of his career but then ran into a potential dark horse in the light heavyweight division – Da Un Jung who earned a classy unanimous decision back in April.
Fabio Cherant (7-2) is also coming off the second loss of his career. Cherant racked up four submissions in a row for CES MMA to earn an audition on the Contender Series. However, he failed it after eating a spectacular flying knee from Camur to knock Cherant out for his first defeat. He responded with three solid wins to finally get his chance on the big stage. Coincidentally, he filled in for Knight at UFC 260 to take on Alonzo Menifield, but Menifield was too strong for him and sealed his fate with a Von Flue choke in the first round.
PREDICTION
We can see most of this fight being a grappling contest as they are not the most confident strikers. Knight is improving with every fight and we expect him to open up with leg kicks to set up a takedown.
Cherant can get the job done if the fight stays on the feet. He does not have any knockouts to his name, but he is the better striker technically and will boast a three-inch reach advantage. He will also be a threat with his submissions when Knight attempts to drag the fight to the ground.
Cherant is the underdog, and we can see him pulling off a late submission, but it is more likely that Knight grinds out a decision by pinning Cherant up against the fence for the majority of the fight.
Prediction: Knight via Decision
Value Bet: Cherant via Submission
SASHA PALATNIKOV VS RAMIZ BRAHIMAJ
Sasha Palatnikov (6-3) makes his way to the APEX for the second time this year and he is hoping to bounce back from a loss. He had a super tough match-up for a second UFC fight in the chiseled shape of Impa Kasanganay. He was outclassed and submitted in the second round which halted his momentum gained after getting TKO’d by Mounir Lazzez for UAE Warriors in 2019. He responded with TKO’s himself in 2020 – Paulo Henrique for UAE Warriors again and then Louis Cosce to mark a near perfect UFC debut.
Ramiz Brahimaj (8-3) finally returns after putting his ear back on. He went 4-2 in the Legacy Fighting Alliance before earning an opportunity in the UFC. However, Max Griffin gave him a violent welcome. It was an exciting battle that ended after Griffin executed a nasty elbow to Brahimaj’s ear which left it hanging off by a thread. Gruesome, but thankfully he is back and has a great match-up.
PREDICTION
This should be exciting wherever it goes. They are both aggressive on the feet and Palatnikov is the more polished striker whereas Brahimaj should have the edge in the grappling department.
Brahimaj will look to make this a gritty battle at close range, wearing on Palatnikov in the clinch and chaining takedowns together. Palatnikov will be extremely confident on the feet, and he has decent takedown defence so the more space he can create, the more likely he will walk away with the dub.
Expect Palatnikov to control the stand-up exchanges and Brahimaj the grappling exchanges. This will be a back-and-forth battle but we are backing Palatnikov’s takedown defence and cardio to keep the fight on the feet long enough to get the nod from the judges.