UFC Vegas 33 - Breakdown & Predictions
When is UFC Vegas 33? Sunday 1st August, 2021 - 00:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Vegas 33? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Vegas 33? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Vegas 33 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC Vegas 33? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
URIAH HALL VS SEAN STRICKLAND
A penny for Uriah Hall’s (17-9) thoughts as it was his shin that Chris Weidman’s leg wrapped around. It was the very first strike that was thrown in their fight in April and it was absolutely heart / gut wrenching to watch. Hall was finally gaining some momentum before that fight as well. After Paulo Costa ravaged him back in 2018 handing him his fourth knockout loss, he went on an impressive three-fight run. He responded by swotting Bevon Lewis away with a vicious right hand and then subdued the jiu-jitsu ace Antonio Carlos Junior earning a split decision and then followed it up with a fourth-round TKO of the legend Anderson Silva, closing the chapter on his illustrious UFC career.
Sean Strickland (23-3) is also gaining some momentum again after a spot of soul searching back in 2018. Shortly after responding to getting knocked out by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by knocking out Nordine Taleb, he got hit by a car while riding his motorbike. It put him out for two years recovering from multiple injuries and knee surgery. He eased back into action in October last year with a unanimous decision over Jack Marshman and then made up for lost time by stepping up to fight Brendan Allen only two weeks later. He proceeded to knock him out snapping Allen’s seven-fight win streak. Strickland returned back in May and made it four in a row earning a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
This is an exciting stylistic match-up to cap a rather mediocre looking card compared to what we have been treated to recently. The same question mark is present in all Hall’s fights and that is his consistency. When he puts everything together, he looks like a world beater, but he has made a habit of breaking under the high-pressure fights. Strickland on the other hand is very consistent and this is his chance to burst into the top 10.
This should be a stand-up war and they both have the power to cause some serious damage. Strickland has the more solid boxing technique, but Hall has the speed advantage and the ability to mix things up with showstopping kicks.
Expect Hall to open-up with his lightening jab attempting to pierce Strickland’s high guard. Strickland fights very compact, blocking punches and firing off a simple 1-2 down the pipe. Hall will be aware of this and should resort to snapping leg kicks to the calf and back on the knee.
Strickland has the style to fight a good five rounds, but he has only fought 25 minutes once which was in 2011 when he defended his KOTC middleweight title for the fourth time against Yusuke Sakashita. This is Hall’s third main event, but he has never gone past the fourth round so the execution of their strategy will be crucial.
If this does go five rounds, a Strickland decision is most likely after getting a read on Hall early and working out the distance, out striking him to sway the judges. If this ends inside the bell, then Hall is your best but for a knockout with his explosiveness, but this will be close either way.
Prediction: Strickland via Decision
Value Bet: Hall via KO/TKO
KYUNG HO KANG VS RANI YAYHA
Kyung Ho Kang (17-8(1)) finally returns after 18 months out the game. He was on a roll as well back in 2019 winning three fights on the bounce. He lost a split decision to Ricardo Ramos in 2018 which snapped another three-fight win streak, but he responded with a submission over Teruto Ishihara and split decisions of his own over Brandon Davis and Liu Pingyuan. He has some rust to shake off but when he served mandatory military service in 2014, he returned after four years to submit Guido Cannetti.
He will not be returning with another submission as the jiu-jitsu wizard Rani Yayha (27-10-1(1)) is the one welcoming him back. He has also been inactive only fighting three times since 2018. Then, he made it three submissions in a row seizing a heel hook on Luke Sanders but in 2019 he met the kryptonite of Ricky Simon’s wrestling losing a unanimous decision. He then fought to a draw with Enrique Barzola a year later. He waited another year to return, and it was a successful one notching up his 21st submission over Ray Rodriguez.
PREDICTION
Yayha has never really made any noise in the UFC, but he has only lost twice since 2013. We expect him to approach this fight like all his others and that will be to throw wild looping punches hoping to create a scramble for a takedown.
Yayha has good takedowns and pounces on the back at any opportunity. The key for all his opponents is to maintain the distance, particularly Kang who has a clear striking advantage. He has 11 submissions under his belt, but he cannot afford to tangle with Yayha.
The Brazilian will keep trying to walk him down, close him off against the fence and find a way to get the fight to the floor. If Kang focuses on keeping the distance and not testing his ego in the grappling exchanges, he should walk away with a decision. He is unlikely to avoid Yayha’s clutches for the whole fight but if he can avoid any trouble for the first round, Yayha will tire, and Kang will finish stronger.
Prediction: Kang via Decision
Value Bet: Yayha to win
CHEYANNE BUYS VS GLORIA DE PAULA
A lot of people were hot on Cheyanne Buys (5-2) after her unanimous decision win on the Contender Series. She impressed against Hilarie Rose with a brilliant striking display, and she was awarded with a UFC debut seven months later in March this year. She was paired up with Kay Hansen, but she dropped out on late notice which opened the door for Montserrat Ruiz to make her debut. Buys was the favourite, but Ruiz dominated with her grappling and took pleasure in keeping Buys in a head lock for long portions of the fight.
Gloria de Paula (5-3) also came off her UFC debut deflated after earning a spot on the roster with a unanimous decision win on the Contender Series. She outpointed Pauline Macias in November last year and also made her debut in March. She was handed a tough fight in the form of the former Invicta atomweight champion Jinh Yu Frey but she had a lot of pressure on her after losing her first two UFC fights. Unfortunately for de Paula, Frey put on her best performance in the octagon grinding out a unanimous decision.
PREDICTION
These ladies are not high up on the card because of their name or record but how exciting they are to watch. Buys is a quality southpaw boxer and is de Paula is an aggressive Muay Thai fighter. This is a much better match-up for both of them and we expect a thrilling stand-up scrap.
This should come down to whoever can control the distance. De Paula will have the advantage if she can get close to Buys, clinch up and fire off knees and elbows. However, she will have to be careful when entering the pocket as Buys’ hands are rapid.
The Brazilian is very aggressive which could play into Buys’ hands. She has the poise and technique to counter when de Paula throws haymakers but if de Paula fights more patiently, she can leverage her five-inch reach advantage and pepper Buys from range.
De Paula has the range and power advantage, but we are backing Buys’ speed and movement to edge out a tight decision with her volume.
Prediction: Buys via Decision
Value Bet: De Paula via Decision
JARED GOODEN VS NIKLAS STOLZE
Jared Gooden (17-6) steps up on just five days’ notice filling in for Mounir Lazzez who has been deprived of making his US debut due to visa issues. It is not that surprising Gooden has accepting the fight having lost his first two UFC fights. He got paired with veteran Alan Jouban on his debut and was outclassed on his debut losing a unanimous decision and then Abubakar Nurmagomedov made it two unanimous decision losses in a row four months later in March this year.
Niklas Stolze (12-4) will not care about the change in opponent and will just be thankful he is still on the card as he has been out for over a year. His last appearance was his UFC debut, and the odds were completely stacked against him stepping up on short notice to take on the machine Ramazan Emeev. The Russian inevitably threw him around the octagon to pick up another unanimous decision. He has had a full training camp this time around and is ready to get his UFC career up and running,
PREDICTION
Like Lazzez, Gooden is also a striker by trade, but he is more compact and explosive compared to the Moroccan who is a longer and more accurate striker. Jouban and Nurmagomedov are two very tough fights to open your UFC account and he pushed Jouban hard, so we know Gooden is capable of more.
He is a solid striker, very powerful and is also very well-rounded so we may get to see his grappling for the first time. We should also see more of what Stolze is made of here as the fight will last a lot longer on the feet than his fight with Emeev. Stolze is very comfortable on the feet and is a brilliant kicker. He can also grapple so this has turned out to be a very interesting contest.
This really depends on what kind of shape Gooden is in. If he is not ‘fight ready’ he will gas out quickly and it could be a long round two and three. Stolze needs to expect a fast first round so we should see him pop off his jab and leg kicks to keep Gooden at a distance.
If Gooden goes for broke early, and shoots in for a takedown, he can unleash some furious ground-and-pound while looking for a submission to put the German away. However, if Stolze stays out of trouble for the first round, he should be able to win the fight on the feet and close out a decision.
Prediction: Stolze via Decision
Value Bet: Stolze to win
RYAN BENOIT VS ZARRUKH ADASHEV
Ryan Benoit (10-7) has failed to stay afloat in the UFC flyweight division, but he does have a TKO win over Sergio Pettis. That was in 2015 and since he got submitted by Ben Nguyen, responded with a split decision win over Fredy Serrano then fell on the wrong side of a split decision against the current champion Brandon Moreno which does not look like a bad loss now. He then knocked out Ashkan Mokhtarian with a beautiful head kick but did not fight for a couple years. He returned at bantamweight losing a split decision to Alateng Heili and then dropped back down to lose a split decision to Tim Elliott a year ago.
Zarrukh Adashev (3-3) is desperate for a win. He has lost both of his UFC fights and another loss to Benoit will surely open the door to a UFC exit. He has come from a successful kickboxing background going 19-3 in his professional career and strung three Bellator MMA wins together to earn a call-up to the UFC. He TKO’d Christian Medina (2018), outpointed Ron Leon (2019) and added another TKO over Tevin Dyce (2019). He was matched up with Tyson Nam for his debut and got sparked out cold in the first round and then lost a unanimous decision to Su Mudaerji seven months later in January this year.
PREDICTION
These two will not be breaking the internet with a combined UFC record of 3-7 but they have been pushed up to the main UFC Vegas 33 card after all the dropouts and have a good opportunity to display their skill.
Adashev’s skill clearly lies in his striking as a kickboxer. Benoit’s strengths also lie in his striking with power in both hands and feet. So, this should be an interesting striking battle.
Adashev will want to step into range and offload combinations from his southpaw stance. Benoit will be ready to counter and if he starts to land expect Adashev to step back and focus on leg kicks.
This is not the highest level of MMA fight, and we are leaning towards Benoit simply because Adashev has not proven himself against anyone of a decent standard. A knockout either is possible as their chins are not the strongest, but we are going for a Benoit decision.
Prediction: Benoit via Decision
BRYAN BARBERENA VS JASON WITT
Bryan Barberena (15-7) only fought once last year and makes his first appearance of 2021. He met Anthony Ivy last September and it was a huge win for him. He picked up a unanimous decision which is not his usual method of violence but is came with huge relief after taking a beating in his last two fights and getting TKO’d by Vicente Luque and Randy Brown in 2019.
Jason Witt (18-7) has had quite the experience in just three UFC fights. He made his UFC debut off the back of four straight wins for local promotions but met Takashi Sato and his left hand getting knocked out in the first round. He returned four months later to wrap Cole Williams up in an arm triangle but is coming off another knockout loss. He swallowed a straight right from Matthew Semelsberger after 15 seconds to suffer the fifth knockout loss of his career.
PREDICTION
Barberena will be licking his lips at those five knockouts in Witt’s loss column. He steps out to bang in every fight and is happy to eat some to throw some. It did not work out against top strikers Luque and Brown, but Barberena will really fancy his hands here especially with a slight height and reach advantage.
Witt has call upon his wrestling to get Barberena on his back to pour on ground-and-pound. Barberena’s takedown defence has improved a lot, but he will also have to watch out for the big overhand right from Witt.
We believe his takedown defence is good enough to keep the fight on the feet and the more space he can create the more likely he will land. His heavy hands just need to land on the damaged jaw of Witt once to walk away with an 11th knockout.
Prediction: Barberena via KO/TKO
CHRIS GRUETZEMACHER VS RAFA GARCIA
We first saw Chris Gruetzemacher (14-4) on The Ultimate Fighter 22 in 2015 and he had high hopes sitting on a record of 12-1 but unfortunately for him, he got knocked out by the ‘goat’ Artem Lobov in his first fight. He earnt a unanimous decision in the finale to get his UFC career up and running but it has only gone downhill since. He has fought just four times since getting submitted by Chas Skelly and Davi Ramos in 2017. He TKO’d the war beaten vet, Joe Lauzon in 2018 but he is now coming off a knockout loss to Alexander Hernandez in October last year.
Rafa Garcia (11-1) made his long-awaited UFC debut four months ago in March, but it did not go plan suffering the first loss of his career. He stepped up on short notice replacing Don Madge and it was a very tough fight for a debut. He ended up losing a unanimous decision to Nasrat Haqparast, but he gave a good account of himself. He now heads to the APEX hoping to showcase the talent that made him an unbeaten lightweight champion for Combate Americas
PREDICTION
This is a much better opportunity for Garcia. He has had more time to prepare and is fighting a lower-level fighter. Gruetzemacher has also been submitted three times which will wet the appetite of Garcia who has seven subs to his name.
Garcia only has one knockout in the win column, but he can strike. He is aggressive and we expect him to walk Gruetzemacher down with his boxing targeting the head and body. Gruetzemacher is very durable, and he will go toe-to-toe in the striking exchanges, confident of absorbing whatever Garcia throws and countering back.
The worrying sign for Gruetzemacher is that he got knocked out in his last fight and looked very rusty. He is also not getting any younger whereas we are not even sure how high Garcia’s ceiling is yet.
This is a good match-up for Garcia to prove what he is capable of and we expect him to hurt Gruetzemacher on the feet to eventually set up a submission or comfortable decision.
Prediction: Garcia via Submission
DANNY CHAVEZ VS KAI KAMAKA lll
Danny Chavez (11-4) makes his way to the APEX for the second time this year. He also made his UFC debut at the APEX back in August last year on the UFC 252 card. He took on TJ Brown and extended his winning streak to four with a unanimous decision. He returned in February against Jared Gordon but fell on the wrong side of the decision this time. He has been preparing for an exciting match-up with Doo Ho Choi, but the Korean has dropped out with injury.
Kai Kamaka (8-4) steps up on short notice, much to Chavez’s pleasure. He fills in but he is not just there to take part, he is desperate for a win after losing his last two fights. The decision king made it six decisions in a row on his debut which included Bellator wins over Shojin Miki and Spencer Higa as well as a win over Michael Stack for the Legacy Fighting Alliance. He outpointed Tony Kelley on the same UFC 252 card but got TKO’d by Jonathan Pearce three months later and then lost a split decision to TJ Brown in May.
PREDICTION
This should be a fun battle on the feet with the odd takedown mixed in. Chavez clearly has more power than Kamaka who is yet to register a knockout to his name. That said, Kamaka is expected to be the aggressor here while Chavez will wait to counter with explosive hooks and 1-2’s.
Kamaka has very quick hands and he will need to put on a pace for a full three rounds and mix in takedowns to frustrate Chavez. So, expect Chavez to try and chop Kamaka down with leg kicks. He will most likely start slow, so Kamaka could easily win the first round but if Chavez can land some heavy leg kicks and counters, he can begin to gain momentum and finish stronger.
Kamaka is the favourite despite taking this on short notice so Chavez will be a good shout with a full training camp under his belt. We can see Kamaka squeaking a decision with his volume, pressure and takedowns but if Chavez turns up it could get this done quickly.
Prediction: Kamaka via Decision
Value Bet: Chavez via KO/TKO
JINH YU FREY VS ASHLEY YODER LOWDOWN
Jinh Yu Frey (10-6) prolonged her UFC career with a solid performance in March. She arrived to the UFC as the former Invicta atomweight champion but she has struggled in the strawweight division. She got submitted on her debut by Kay Hansen and then got paired with Loma Lookboonmee which was a interesting match-up as they are two of the smaller ladies in the division. Lookboonmee piled on the misery for Frey however earning a unanimous decision and it could have been curtains for her UFC career if she then lost to Gloria de Paula, but she bounced back with a unanimous decision.
Ashley Yoder (8-7) has hung on to her UFC job for five years now going to a decision in all nine of her fights. She lost her first three fights, responded with two wins over Amanda Cooper (split) and Syuri Kondo (unanimous), slipped to Randa Markos (split) and Livia Renata Souza (unanimous), beat Miranda Granger (unanimous) and is now coming off her second loss to Angela Hill (unanimous).
PREDICTION
Yoder is skilled on the ground and is very tough, but she cannot beat anyone in the top half of the division, and it remains to be seen whether Frey can float at 115 lbs. Frey was originally scheduled to fight Istela Nunes who is a very different fighter to Yoder.
Nunes is a Muay Thai specialist and Yoder is more of a grappler and is lankier boasting a four-inch reach and height advantage. Frey’s wrestling won her fight against de Paula but Yoder will hope the fight goes to the floor so it will be interesting to see how she approaches this.
Frey’s fight IQ is suspect, and she should try and keep the fight standing where she has a striking advantage, but the fight could easily slip into scrambles. If it does, we back Yoder’s experience and jiu-jitsu with her long limbs. This will be close and really determines on Frey’s strategy.
Prediction: Frey via Decision
Value Bet: Yoder via Submission
NICCO MONTANO VS YANAN WU
The mysterious case of Nicco Montano (4-3) continues at UFC Vegas 33. She won The Ultimate Fighter in 2017 and became the first UFC female flyweight champion after earning a classy unanimous decision over Roxanne Modafferi in the final. However, she has only fought once since which was a unanimous decision loss to Julianna Pena in 2019. She has been crippled by bad luck – illness, injuries, botched weight cuts and a ban for a tainted supplement all resulting in time off and several cancelled fights which has annoyed the UFC and fans. Judging by how unstable this card has been and her history, it will be an achievement just to make it to the APEX.
Yanan Wu (11-4) has been more active which does not say much as she has only fought three times since her debut in 2017. Then, she lost a unanimous decision to Gina Mazany but she dropped down to flyweight and pulled off a first round armbar on Lauren Mueller. However, she has struggled with the weight cut and lost two decisions in a row to Mizuki Inoue (2019) and Joselyne Edwards (2021).
PREDICTION
To avoid any more weight cut issues, these ladies fight at bantamweight where Wu will have the size and slight reach advantage. Do not expect the most exciting fight here as this is likely to be a clinch battle with some average striking sprinkled in.
Montano looked great at flyweight but up at 135 lbs she could not deal with the size and power of Pena which is a worry. However, Pena is one of the strongest grapplers in the division and Wu is not on her level.
If Montano makes it to the octagon, we expect her to win the clinch battle with her technique and grind out a relieving decision win.